Half marathon as predictor of marathon time

rom

1:26:59
2:54:21 - 4 months apart.

Itziger

rom wrote: »

1:26:59
2:54:21 - 4 months apart.

Where were the races, ROM? Did you train for the Half? I get the feeling that the Half is rarely a real target. I have seriously trained for a couple and that is where my PB comes from. There is a massive difference in taking that time and the time from a Half done in the middle of a tough marathon programme.

Slow_Runner

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Jaysus as expected my Marathon times are atrocious - can anyone better this?

44%!!

Half - 1:43
Marathon - 4:09

Not far off:


HM 94.5
M 222
HMx2 189
Diff 33
33/94.5 34.92%

I think we need to work on endurance

Murph_D

HM 97
M 208
HMx2 194
Diff 14
14/97 14.4%



Nothing remarkable to see here, unfortunately!

aero2k

ger664 wrote: »

I agree Hanson has it place mainly in runners who are at max aerobic and large mileage running plans are no longer of any benefit to them.

Someone who has a difference between their Half and Full Time as the poster in question still has work to do on their aerobic capacity, which I don't think Hanson method is the best way to address as its long runs are shorter and more focused.

That's a fair point, though I've also had marathon times approx. (HMx2) + 30, depending on preparation and pacing on the day. It's a bit subjective, but I felt much stronger at the finish and had less leg soreness on the following days for my Hanson marathons compared to previous (slower) races, despite never going beyond 1 hr 45 min on a training run. My natural ability and inclination is definitely towards the marathon, but speed endurance was something I needed to work on.

rooneyjm has called out consistent miles and volume - also a recipe for success imho.

squinn2912

I love this idea great post! Here's mine

HM = 85
M = 178
HM x 2 = 170
X = 9% of HM

ittakestwo

Van.Bosch wrote: »

Jaysus as expected my Marathon times are atrocious - can anyone better this?

44%!!

Half - 1:43
Marathon - 4:09

Yeah HM is 1:22. Best marathon of 3 attempts is 3:55. Which comes in at 60%....

Last marathon I rocked in at 4:27 a few months after running a PB 10k of 36min. And yes did do long runs up to 32k before the marathons too.

Swashbuckler

ittakestwo wrote:

Last marathon I rocked in at 4:27 a few months after running a PB 10k of 36min. And yes did do long runs up to 32k before the marathons too.

What happened? Why such a fall off do you reckon?

squinn2912

Christ that's staggering! Did you go out too hard and blow up?

ittakestwo

Swashbuckler wrote: »

What happened? Why such a fall off do you reckon?

Get to about 30k and can't run any further. No energy left and the knowing still about 12k left and shattered does not help you push on.

As few things I would say I do wrong.

1. Running my last long runs a mp and not slower. Think it would stand be better on the day if my last long runs I had more time on the feet. I hate running slowly so need to train myself to go slowly on these runs. That probably biggest mistake.

2. Probably not fueling enough during the race or at the right times too.

3. I don't push myself when I stop. A bit passive aggressive in character. if not going to do a good time I give up completely and start walking the rest. Dont try to run any more but also tighs are in pain when you start up after stoping. I remember outside UCD in my last DM lieing on the grass verge and "chilling" for a while and doing stretchs.

Murph_D

Swashbuckler wrote: »

What happened? Why such a fall off do you reckon?

ittakestwo has posted elsewhere that long runs were too fast and mileage was insufficient. Lack of endurance as a result.

Edit: crossed with above!

ittakestwo

squinn2912 wrote: »

Christ that's staggering! Did you go out too hard and blow up?

No. in the last one I tried staying with the 3.45 pace makers which should easily be donr for a 1:22 HM runner but again at the 30k mark I stoped and could not run any more.

squinn2912

Just read some of your other posts. Did you run 1:22 during the build up to a marathon? What does a typical training week look like for you? It seems to me like physically there should be no problem for you to attempt and achieve sub3 but you could benefit from taking a look at your training and mental preparation for the marathon.

hot buttered scones

HM = Charleville
M= DCM

2015:

HM: 95
M: 219
HMx2: 190
Diff: 29
19/95 = 20%

2016:

HM: 92
M: 202
HMx2: 184
Diff: 18
18/92: 20%

2017:

HM: 87
HMx2: 174
Prediction:
0.2 x 87 + 174 = 191.4 (3:11)

I can squeeze a minute off that I hope.

ittakestwo

squinn2912 wrote: »

Just read some of your other posts. Did you run 1:22 during the build up to a marathon? What does a typical training week look like for you? It seems to me like physically there should be no problem for you to attempt and achieve sub3 but you could benefit from taking a look at your training and mental preparation for the marathon.

Yeah ran that in 2014 too. Typical week was about 50-60km a week, did 28k, 30k and 32k long runs too building up every second week and a final 3.5 week taper before the marathon so I had put the work in.

The big point here is that you can take two people with the exact same 10k time and fitness ( ie same base starting point). put them on the same training program for a marathon and they will come in with totally different marathon times despite initially starting from the same place and putting the same amount of work in. Some people find building up to the marathon distance a lot easier than others that is doubt. Unfortunately I find it exceptionally tough and might have to be willing to do more than just one a year to be able run the 42k without stopping.

For the next marathon I will start like a greyhound out of a trap and when I eventually burn out at 30k at least I will have less time on my feet than if I had started with the 3:45 pm when I burn out at 30k. I will take in a good view off all those beautiful Victorian/Edwardian red bricks on those leafy streets of D6 & D4 as I walk the rest home. I don't like marathon distance but the Dublin marathon is a great day out and by far the best atmosphere out of all the runs so I do enjoy the day even if the time is not great. And the pints of Guinness afterwards in a pub full of burnt out runners taste amazing.

zulutango

^^ This sounds like a terrible strategy!

hot buttered scones

ittakestwo wrote: »

Yeah ran that in 2014 too. Typical week was about 50-60km a week, did 28k, 30k and 32k long runs too building up every second week and a final 3.5 week taper before the marathon so I had put the work in.

The big point here is that you can take two people with the exact same 10k time and fitness ( ie same base starting point). put them on the same training program for a marathon and they will come in with totally different marathon times despite initially starting from the same place and putting the same amount of work in. Some people find building up to the marathon distance a lot easier than others that is doubt. Unfortunately I find it exceptionally tough and might have to be willing to do more than just one a year to be able run the 42k without stopping.

For the next marathon I will start like a greyhound out of a trap and when I eventually burn out at 30k at least I will have less time on my feet than if I had started with the 3:45 pm when I burn out at 30k. I will take in a good view off all those beautiful Victorian/Edwardian red bricks on those leafy streets of D6 & D4 as I walk the rest home. I don't like marathon distance but the Dublin marathon is a great day out and by far the best atmosphere out of all the runs so I do enjoy the day even if the time is not great. And the pints of Guinness afterwards in a pub full of burnt out runners taste amazing.

zulutango wrote: »

^^ This sounds like a terrible strategy!

Roger that, zulutango.

Or you could saunter along for the first 12.2k taking in all the sights and sounds of marathon day (maybe even spotting a few deer in the park) before putting the foot down for the last 30k, and collapse in a heap over the line?

squinn2912

ittakestwo wrote: »

squinn2912 wrote: »

Just read some of your other posts. Did you run 1:22 during the build up to a marathon? What does a typical training week look like for you? It seems to me like physically there should be no problem for you to attempt and achieve sub3 but you could benefit from taking a look at your training and mental preparation for the marathon.

Yeah ran that in 2014 too. Typical week was about 50-60km a week, did 28k, 30k and 32k long runs too building up every second week and a final 3.5 week taper before the marathon so I had put the work in.

The big point here is that you can take two people with the exact same 10k time and fitness ( ie same base starting point). put them on the same training program for a marathon and they will come in with totally different marathon times despite initially starting from the same place and putting the same amount of work in. Some people find building up to the marathon distance a lot easier than others that is doubt. Unfortunately I find it exceptionally tough and might have to be willing to do more than just one a year to be able run the 42k without stopping.

For the next marathon I will start like a greyhound out of a trap and when I eventually burn out at 30k at least I will have less time on my feet than if I had started with the 3:45 pm when I burn out at 30k. I will take in a good view off all those beautiful Victorian/Edwardian red bricks on those leafy streets of D6 & D4 as I walk the rest home. I don't like marathon distance but the Dublin marathon is a great day out and by far the best atmosphere out of all the runs so I do enjoy the day even if the time is not great. And the pints of Guinness afterwards in a pub full of burnt out runners taste amazing.

I get what you're saying about the two runners but if they are an hour apart or more then I think that comes down to preparation and attitude.

What do you want to achieve in the marathon? That strategy is not one to succeed and you know it. Why plan to race beneath your ability? There's a safety in mediocrity and you can tell everyone about your low expectations but I don't know why you're doing it at all if you plan on throwing in the towel at that point. Go out and run the race. Don't worry about the pacers be your own pacer and when it hurts at 20 miles it should hurt, run through it we all experience that pain.

Jakey Rolling

FWIW, now that I have a proper HM effort under my belt

HM = 92 (Charleville 2017)
Mar = 207 ( Cork 2017)
2x HM = 184
23/92 = 25%

My lactate threshold indicates I'm probably good for about another 7 mins off my marathon, given the right conditions and full training cycle. Not likely to be DCM though, currently missing another week bunged up with a cold.

ittakestwo

hot buttered scones wrote: »

Roger that, zulutango.

Or you could saunter along for the first 12.2k taking in all the sights and sounds of marathon day (maybe even spotting a few deer in the park) before putting the foot down for the last 30k, and collapse in a heap over the line?

I tried to sauntering through the whole thing in 2014 but again stopped at 30k. Made a mistake with the times I quoted above, I came home at 4:34 not 4:27 that year. I don't see the point in sauntering if I will just stop at 30k anyway. Why not just race the 30k and walk the rest in stead of sauntering 30k and walking the rest. There is nothing worse than going out slowly in the hope to go for longer only to stop at the same point as the year before tho you are at that point in a slower time. Especially when you hate running slowly like me.

My aim this year is to get to at least Clonskeagh road before stopping. That would be an achievement for me. I use to work on this road and I want to run past my old work place instead of walking by it and is at the 32k mark point. As said before not a marathon runner and don't like this distance so not worried about times, but the DCM is a special day for running in Ireland and the atmosphere during and after is electric so love getting out for it... starting to get excited about it now...

hot buttered scones

ittakestwo wrote: »

I tried to sauntering through the whole thing in 2014 but again stopped at 30k. Made a mistake with the times I quoted above, I came home at 4:34 not 4:27 that year. I don't see the point in sauntering if I will just stop at 30k anyway. Why not just race the 30k and walk the rest in stead of sauntering 30k and walking the rest. There is nothing worse than going out slowly in the hope to go for longer only to stop at the same point as the year before tho you are at that point in a slower time. Especially when you hate running slowly like me.

My aim this year is to get to at least Clonskeagh road before stopping. That would be an achievement for me. I use to work on this road and I want to run past my old work place instead of walking by it and is at the 32k mark point. As said before not a marathon runner and don't like this distance so not worried about times, but the DCM is a special day for running in Ireland and the atmosphere during and after is electric so love getting out for it... starting to get excited about it now...

Do it in reverse is what I'm saying -saunter the first 10k and race the last 32!!

squinn2912

ittakestwo wrote: »

hot buttered scones wrote: »

Roger that, zulutango.

Or you could saunter along for the first 12.2k taking in all the sights and sounds of marathon day (maybe even spotting a few deer in the park) before putting the foot down for the last 30k, and collapse in a heap over the line?

I tried to sauntering through the whole thing in 2014 but again stopped at 30k. Made a mistake with the times I quoted above, I came home at  4:34 not 4:27 that year. I don't see the point in sauntering if I will just stop at 30k anyway. Why not just race the 30k and walk the rest in stead of sauntering 30k and walking the rest. There is nothing worse than going out slowly in the hope to go for longer only to stop at the same point as the year before tho you are at that point in a slower time. Especially when you hate running slowly like me.

My aim this year is to get to at least Clonskeagh road before stopping. That would be an achievement for me. I use to work on this road and I want to run past my old work place instead of walking by it and is at the 32k mark point. As said before not a marathon runner and don't like this distance so not worried about times, but the DCM is a special day for running in Ireland and the atmosphere during and after is electric so love getting out for it... starting to get excited about it now...

I believe that if you changed your racing strategy and ran your long runs a little easier that you could run a much quicker marathon, and run all of it. You're not a novice runner. Please don't go into it defeated already. I've been injured all summer and can't do it and am gutted to miss it this would have been four in a row.

zulutango

@ittakestwo

I firmly believe that if you can't do the distance then you haven't done the right training. Sure, everybody is different but to write off your chances on the basis that you are just one of those people who isn't made for distance is a bit of a cop-out and a very self-defeating attitude, if I may say so.

I say this as somebody who thought the exact same way. My first marathon many years ago was a 4.34 finish, exactly the same as yours. Two months previously I had done a 42 minute 10k. My 10k times improved over the years but my marathon efforts fell flat twice more. I DNF'd my second attempt with my body breaking about halfway through and I didn't make it to the start line for my third marathon, with calf injuries about 6 weeks out from the race. I was convinced that I was just not made for the distance stuff.

But then I started training properly. It sounds like a fairly obvious approach but it's only in hindsight that I saw that I had been doing it all wrong. I was far too goal-oriented, and as a result my consistency was poor. I'd do a race and then take a break for a while. Or I'd tell myself that I was doing great training, when I really wasn't. Signing up to Strava actually helped a lot with the last point. It was far more difficult to delude myself that I was doing the right training. So, some time last year I just began to run without any particular goals in mind. I started to slow down in training and take things more easily. The emphasis was on doing nice easy sessions but above all to achieve consistency and never let two days go by without going for a run or at least some kind of aerobic session. By doing this I think I achieved (over the course of about 18 months) a greater degree of fitness than I had before but above all the body became strong and less prone to injury. And after about a year I found I could tackle the hard sessions and the hard races. Now, I'm at a point where I think a 3 hour marathon is doable in the next year or so. I may not be able to run in Dublin but if I do I'd be realistically going for 3.15.

Anyway, my point is that we often convince ourselves that we are doing the right training, or that we have limitations that other people don't have but I no longer believe this is the case. My advice is to truly and honestly assess the training you are doing and also to take a step back and just concentrate on covering mileage and build the body and the aerobic system up slowly over time.

squinn2912

Totally agree with that last post.

ittakestwo

Well I am running 6 days a week covering 90km a week now , building up slowly from 70km of 6 days a week in June. Took one week of in August due to being sick. Each week I have intervals on the track, a tempo run , a hill run with sprints on the hills, a long run and two other easy runs. So if this year I come apart at 30k we cant say I have lacked effort. I will stick with the 3h pace markers for as long as I can, hopefully that will get me to at least the Clonskeagh Rd, if so I will be a happy man and anything else is a bonus.

I will concentrate very hard on the last two long runs to stay slow... never bring a watch with me so never know what pace I am running at. Have a garment watch so need to figure out how to use it for these runs.

Djoucer

Sounds like you're head is stopping you at 32km rather than the legs if you're doing the training as outlined above.

ger664

100% agree with above. Once you make an unplanned walking/stretching stop in a marathon your head is gone and so is your time.

Van.Bosch

Djoucer wrote: »

Sounds like you're head is stopping you at 32km rather than the legs if you're doing the training as outlined above.

I am similar to this, my head knows "you'll be wrecked at about 34/35 so you'll be walking from there"

How do you beat this?

hot buttered scones

ger664 wrote: »

100% agree with above. Once you make an unplanned walking/stretching stop in a marathon your head is gone and so is your time.

Yep - I can confirm this too from experience.

Van.Bosch wrote: »

I am similar to this, my head knows "you'll be wrecked at about 34/35 so you'll be walking from there"

How do you beat this?

I don't know really. What about picking a pace you think you can last the full 26.2 miles at? Or just telling yourself it's going to be hard from 34/35k on so get your head ready for it. Draw from your experience in those hard training runs, sessions and shorter races to see it through to the end. There was a bit of talk on a few threads a while back about "mental toughness" - that ability to push through the pain and drive on for home.
Finally - yeah you be wrecked at 34/35k but that's when you start counting down instead of up - only 7k to go, then 6k - now you've parkrun left to run and sure you've done that plenty of times.

Maybe I'm talking out me hoop here, but a big part of racing is in the head.

Swashbuckler

hot buttered scones wrote:

Yep - I can confirm this too from experience.

Which makes healy1835's race report from Berlin all the more impressive.