Will I Sell Or Keep ??

ArraMusha

I've a house on market in city for 2 years and have an offer 30% below what the peak (2007) value was.
This offer is 40k above what I paid for it, so no neg. eq......yet

I'm trading up for larger house in country(not found yet) prices still too high (crazy high in some cases).

I'd like the security of having another place lined up 'let go of one and grab another'. I suppose its all relative.

Should I sell and take the gamble? The gamble being that houses will still go south over coming months.:rolleyes:

ei.sdraob

sell

if house prices go down more so will yours

for 200k you can build some very nice houses in country

Caoimhín

I would say there is nothing surer that house prices will decline for the next few years.

Cadiz

If you can sell and make €40k capital to put towards your new house do it.

House prices are only going to go in one direction for the foreseeable and a 30% hair cut on the peak price is not that bad in this negative equity rife climate.

If you can sell for that, do it and get on with buying your lovely new home.

The_Conductor

Keep in mind- the rate of fall in prices- is roughly 50% higher in Dublin, than elsewhere in the country (though of course this is open to change at any given time). In the past year, for example, average selling prices in Dublin have fallen almost 19% (to the end of September), but a comparable figure for the rest of the country is roughly a 12.3% fall. *(Falls are dependent on location- and property type- in all cases the largest falls are in apartments and managed complexes- but the biggest percentage falls of all- are at the luxury end of the market).

If you are trying to sell a Dublin based property @ 30% discount to peak prices- you are most probably being unrealistically optimistic.

S.

ArraMusha

Thanks for the advise folks, I appreciate your comments and advise.

I'll have a re-think about it. Contract signing is next week so stress is mounting.

Firetrap

I can't see house prices stopping their fall any time soon to be honest. The conditions that led to them rising aren't there any more. If I was in your shoes, I'd worry first about selling the house as soon as possible. Have you considered renting somewhere in the meantime until a place you like comes on the market? At least if you have a roof over your head for the foreseeable future and money in the bank, you are in a position to buy something you like. Hoping that everything will fall neatly into place for you is a pipe dream IMHO.

iguana

Bite their hand off and pray nothing goes wrong on their end.

am i bovvered

smccarrick wrote: »

If you are trying to sell a Dublin based property @ 30% discount to peak prices- you are most probably being unrealistically optimistic.

S.

The OP has an offer of 30% dicount from peak.

The_Conductor

am i bovvered wrote: »

The OP has an offer of 30% dicount from peak.

In which case- and akin to the advise immediately above your post- bite off their hand and run........

ArraMusha

Its 30% alright. I'm in Galway. A factor to also consider is that I'm leaving a low tracker mortgage behind (rate ~1.9%) when I sell which is very low and manageable.
Any new house mortgage with BOI or AIB will be with a variable rate of ~3.7% (..and rising).

The biggest concern I have is that right now I can't find any house in the country that has fallen by a similar percentage. The boards comments on other forums seem to think they will drop...in coming months/weeks.

The upcoming budget, NAMA, tax increases. tax changes all factor.

The_Conductor

ArraMusha wrote: »

Its 30% alright. I'm in Galway. A factor to also consider is that I'm leaving a low tracker mortgage behind (rate ~1.9%) when I sell which is very low and manageable.
Any new house mortgage with BOI or AIB will be with a variable rate of ~3.7% (..and rising).

The biggest concern I have is that right now I can't find any house in the country that has fallen by a similar percentage. The boards comments on other forums seem to think they will drop...in coming months/weeks.

The upcoming budget, NAMA, tax increases. tax changes all factor.

Falls elsewhere in the country are up to a year behind Dublin- one estate agent in Portlaoise told me a year ago- 'sure all the price falls that everyone is talking about will only be in Dublin'. Needless to say most of the property on his books is still for sale- a year later....

Aside from the factors you've alluded to above- the elephant in the room is the increases in interest rates already signalled by the German delegate to the ECB. This is now expected to happen sooner than expected (and given that 2 Nordic countries have already raised rates in the past 10 days- can be expected to come about).

A 30% reduction on peak prices- is remarkable in the current context- if I were offered similar for my house, I'd grab it and run, despite the fact that I'd have nowhere to live.......

A lot of Galway development was built on the understanding of certain facilities/amenities being built- most of which may not now come to pass. With the best of will in the world- the money simply isn't there.

I'd stand over my above comments- and advise grabbing the money and running. Perhaps rent for a while, you will see property you like, at a price you like, sooner rather than later, and even then- you would probably be advised to wait.......

ArraMusha

Thanks smccarrick for the advise.

I'd agree with your line "sooner rather than later" to get another place. As it takes 6-8 weeks anyhow to go through the buying process (negotiating price, solicitors etc.) Hopefully by Jan I will be in a better position??

In the meanwhile I've to spend the next few weeks packing boxes etc..(If you put a cost on stress, that should be factored in also:))

If you are similarly trying to trade up, I hope it works out. In a few days time if my buyer pulls we might be in the same boat...paddle paddle.

iguana

smccarrick wrote: »

Falls elsewhere in the country are up to a year behind Dublin- one estate agent in Portlaoise told me a year ago- 'sure all the price falls that everyone is talking about will only be in Dublin'. Needless to say most of the property on his books is still for sale- a year later....

I remember a few years ago when people first started seeing evidence of the price falls an awful lot of Dublin EAs made comments along the lines of: There are falls down the country but they won't happen in Dublin.

The_Conductor

iguana wrote: »

I remember a few years ago when people first started seeing evidence of the price falls an awful lot of Dublin EAs made comments along the lines of: There are falls down the country but they won't happen in Dublin.

Lol- its all- it might happen elsewhere, but it won't happen in our backyard.......

Caoimhín

ArraMusha wrote: »

The biggest concern I have is that right now I can't find any house in the country that has fallen by a similar percentage. The boards comments on other forums seem to think they will drop...in coming months/weeks.
.

A lot of the, ahem, "prestige" houses in the countryside have not dropped the asking price by much, but that is just that, the asking price. People know each other in the countryside and dont want to be seen to be taking a hit on their big house. I bet if you made an offer on some of these places of 40 - 50% below asking price you might be surprised.

Cadiz

Caoimhín wrote: »

A lot of the, ahem, "prestige" houses in the countryside have not dropped the asking price by much, but that is just that, the asking price. People know each other in the countryside and dont want to be seen to be taking a hit on their big house. I bet if you made an offer on some of these places of 40 - 50% below asking price you might be surprised.

Indeed. Was about to as OP if s/he had put in any offers yet as asking price versus the price they would accept likely to differ. Still a lot of denial around though too.

I don't know Co Galway market as well as I know Galway city and Dublin, but I wouldn't have thought much was moving there. Would have thought they would bite hand off OP in turn.

Gurgle

ei.sdraob wrote: »

for 200k you can build some very nice houses in country

Not this country of course, you won't be let.