Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

[Article] The price is right for Homebuyers

Options
  • 01-11-2009 9:59pm
    #1
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    http://www.sbpost.ie/property/the-price-is-right-for-homebuyers-45273.html

    01 November 2009 By Michelle Devane

    Everyone knows that house prices have dropped. But by how much exactly? Finding out what a house or apartment is actually worth these days can be pretty difficult. Househunters can’t rely on the asking prices of properties - in many instances, they are completely different to the actual sale prices - so they are forced to rely on anecdotal evidence and their own research.

    Despite the lack of transparent information, first-time buyers are slowing coming back to the market - taking advantage of lower prices and improved affordability of apartments and starter homes. According to the latest EBS/DKM affordability index, the cost of a mortgage for the average first-time buyer couple will fall to 13 per cent of their net income by the end of the year, compared with 26.4 per cent in 2006.

    Affordability has also improved for other segments of the market. Large family homes are becoming more appealing to househunters as prices continue to fall, and many couples who have long aspired to purchase a family home in a mature residential area, perhaps close to where they grew up, can now do so for far less than those who purchased in 2006 and are now in negative equity.

    There has been a vast improvement in affordability in sought-after areas of Dublin, such as Sandymount, Foxrock, Mount Merrion, Rathgar, Blackrock, Clontarf and Howth. Unattainable during the boom years - even, in some cases, by those with six-figure salaries - four-bedroom detached houses with good-sized gardens in these areas, which would have sold for well over €1 million, are being sold for between €500,000 and €600,000.

    The number of homes in the capital selling between the €500,000 and €1 million mark has begun to rise over the last two months, as vendors become more realistic about their asking prices. Agents say these houses are being purchased by couples with growing children who are eager to buy in well-established areas with good public transport links, such as the Luas or the Dart.

    Although Dublin 6 has always been one of the capital’s most popular residential areas, it has not escaped the crash in property prices.

    For example, the asking prices of redbrick properties on Frankfort Avenue in Rathgar have dropped from around €2 million at the height of the boom to as low as €830,000 in recent months.

    Last month, a three-be room red brick terraced property on the road, number 22,wa s sale agreed through Felicity Fox. It had an asking price of €850,000.

    Number 39 Frankfort Avenue is currently on the market through d brick Victorian house with great potential as a family home. Elsewhere on the road, a four-bedroom detached house, number 73, has been sale agreed through Sherry FitzGerald after a whopping 68.6 per cent price reduction to €595,000. It failed to sell at auction for €1.9 million in 2006.

    In nearby Orwell Park, Renvyle - an imposing late Victorian double-fronted family home - was put on the market in September 2007. However, the five-bedroom property failed to sell at auction with an advised minimum value of €6 million, and is still on the market despite a 46.6 per cent price reduction to €3.2 million through Sherry FitzGerald.

    On Dartry Road, Jessefield is on the market with Douglas Newman Good. This impressive redbrick Edwardian property offers 260 square metres of living space and is set in well-stocked walled gardens with a south-west facing aspect to the rear. Agent Pat Mullery is quoting an asking price of €1.9 million, down from €2.65 million last year.

    Mullery said the recent activity in the market was based on realistic asking prices, and said that, if a property was priced competitively, it had a chance of selling. ‘‘Sellers, in my opinion, should be realistic about prices and accept good offers," he said.

    ‘‘I’ve had bids on properties and sellers just won’t accept them. In some cases, the bid is not a million miles away from the asking price but the sellers still won’t look at it. They should be looking at it."

    Over in Terenure, meanwhile, 7 Ashfield Park is for sale for €499,000; although currently in use as a pre-63 in five units, this redbrick period property measures 149 square metres and could be converted into a family home. According to selling agent Mark Stafford, of Sherry FitzGerald, houses on the road were selling for around €900,000 at the peak of the market.

    In Dublin 16,CaroleRoss,of Sherry FitzGerald’s Templeogue branch, is handling the sale of 15 Brehon’s Chair, a detached four-bedroom house in a recently-built gated development of 25 houses off Kellystown Road. This property came on the market in April 2007 with an asking price of €1.495 million, but the agent is now quoting €895,000. In August 2007, the agent sold a house in the scheme for €2million.

    Closer to the city centre, Felicity Fox is quoting €925,000 for 75 Beechwood Avenue Lower, a three-bedroom mid terrace redbrick in Ranelagh. Three years ago, number 32, a similar-sized property, had an asking price of €1.65 million. Meanwhile, in Dublin 4, Savills is seeking offers of €2million for Lisalea, a 275 square metre property in Donnybrook.

    Built in 1992 by its architect owners, the four bedroom property is situated in a cul de sac adjacent to the Teresian school. It has been lingering on the market for over 12 months and its price has been dropped by just over 49 per cent - it was originally asking €3.95 million.

    Also in Dublin 4, Felicity Fox is quoting an attractive asking price of €695,000 for a three-bedroom semi-detached house in St Alban’s Park in Sandymount. Number 29 is in need of complete refurbishment, but it is an art deco property extending to 130 square metes with an adjoining garage and large gardens. At auction in 2006,SherryFitzGerald sold 14 St Alban’s Park for €2.975 million.

    In south Co Dublin, areas like Blackrock, Carrickmines, Foxrock and Dun Laoghaire have long been popular with families for their solid 1950s homes with large gardens while, in north Dublin, the most sought-after areas - Clontarf, Howth and Malahide - were achieving seven-figure sale prices just a few years ago.

    Now, all these areas have seen significant price drops. Ronan O’Hara of Savills in Blackrock is seeking offers in the region of €1.25 million for 4 Brighton Avenue in Foxrock.

    A 186 square metre detached five-bedroom house, it is set on extensive gardens. O’Hara said that his agency sold number 8 on the road in late 2006 for around €2.75 million.

    O’Hara described the top end of the market as ‘‘very, very slow, putting it nicely’’. But he said that three and four-bedroom semis in southside Dublin were selling.

    ‘‘A lot of first-time buyer couples are buying four-bedroom semis instead [of apartments].

    Three and four-bed semis in south Co Dublin were selling for over €1 million; they’re now selling for €500,000-plus," he said.

    O’Hara said that any properties now priced at €700,000 or €800,000 would have been selling for between €1.3million and €1.4 million in late 2006.

    ‘‘You can now get solid semis in areas such as Monkstown, Glenageary and Trimleston in Booterstown for between €500,000 and €700,000," he said. More recently-built houses have also felt the pinch. In Carrickmines, Savills is handling the sale of 9 Carrickmines Chase, an extended three-bedroom terraced property in the Carrickmines Wood scheme.

    It was put on the market last February for €795,000, but similar houses in this scheme were selling for well over €1 million at peak.

    Elsewhere, Sherry FitzGerald has reduced the price of White Lodge, a 300 square metre Georgian residence in Dun Laoghaire. The elegant residence, dating from 1804,was originally asking a staggering €3.75 million. Now, the agent is quoting €1.995 million, a drop of 46 per cent.

    In Clontarf, Seafield Road East is one of the area’s most sought-after roads, and number 60 is currently for sale for €800,000 through Savills. This three-bedroom semidetached house was built in the 1930s and has many period features.

    Some houses on this road were achieving well over €2 million in 2006. For example, 116 Seafield Road East was quoting €2.3 million when it went on the market in early 2006.

    On nearby Mount Prospect Avenue, Gunne Residential has a four-bedroom semi-detached house, number 74, on its books for €710,000, while Sherry FitzGerald is quoting €725,000 for number 108, also a four-bed semi set well back from the road. In 2006, houses on this road were selling for well above €1 million.

    The prices being accepted for second-hand properties can vary considerably even for similar houses on the same road.

    So while it is still very much a buyer’s market, with plenty of bargains on offer, good research is still essential for any prospective purchaser.


«1

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 992 ✭✭✭Eglinton


    Still not what you'd call affordable! Estate Agents and Property Supplements are still trying to tell us that a price between 500K and 1 million is a good deal for a semi-d! :rolleyes:

    There's a long way to fall......Ireland obviously hasn't copped on yet.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Dublin ain't Manhattan or Monaco, just look at the figures in the artcle, think about it!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,738 ✭✭✭Klingon Hamlet


    I would say the Sunday Business Post would tailor an article such as the one above towards high-income earners. Therefore those prices wouldn'tseem as high to those typically reading it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,859 ✭✭✭Duckjob


    gurramok wrote: »
    Dublin ain't Manhattan or Monaco, just look at the figures in the artcle, think about it!

    +1

    I despise those acticles that try to spin the idea of spending HALF OF A MILLION EURO on a bog standard 3 bed semi as anything other than LOOPY.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    I would be vary wary of this kind of appeal to relative "value" in comparison to peak prices. Just because, say, a house on the edge of a dual-carriageway that used to cost €3.95 million now costs €2 million, doesn't mean that this now represents good value to those looking in that price bracket. The same applies in other sectors of the market. I'd also question whether some of the original prices were even attainable at the peak of the bubble.

    Small three and four-bed semis still selling for €500,000-plus in pleasant enough but not extraordinary areas of Dublin? That doesn't sound as if the price is right.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,064 ✭✭✭Gurgle


    smccarrick wrote: »
    first-time buyers are slowing coming back to the market - taking advantage of lower prices and improved affordability of apartments and starter homes.
    Can't the phrase 'starter home' be outlawed?
    The concept is so fundamentally flawed its obscene.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 759 ✭✭✭mrgaa1


    "the price is always right" if it suits the buyer - no matter what commodity is being purchased. It was a bit of non-sensical article - everyone knows whats going on. What would be more important would be to establish when the bottom has arrived - in that case it'll be sometime before we see such an article. Also why look at Dublin - there are other areas in the country they could write about - Ireland doesn't revolve around Dublin.


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭ArraMusha


    Its a pity this type of detailed pricing was not rolled out to the rest of Ireland. Its hard to make comparisons and a lot of the houses in this report are high end.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    Gurgle wrote: »
    Can't the phrase 'starter home' be outlawed?
    The concept is so fundamentally flawed its obscene.

    I don't get why the term bothers you. In a stable market and a rising market the concept is fine. Young couple buy a house big enough for them and maybe a child, time moves on and they want another child so they get a bigger home. The first property being the starter home. It makes more sense than buying a huge house that they buy on the belief they are going to have 2 children in the future. While they wait to have kids they are paying for the space they don't need at the point.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    mrgaa1 wrote: »
    What would be more important would be to establish when the bottom has arrived - in that case it'll be sometime before we see such an article.
    We have those articles all the time.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/property/2009/0312/1224242730852.html
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/commercialproperty/2009/0318/1224242994918.html
    mrgaa1 wrote: »
    Also why look at Dublin - there are other areas in the country they could write about - Ireland doesn't revolve around Dublin.
    Probably because (a) the Business Post's readership is more concentrated in Dublin, (b) Dublin allows them to cherry-pick a few large drops at the top end of the market to give the impression that all property has fallen by 40-50%. From what I can see the rest of the market is lagging behind the top end.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    And another article calling the bottom just this morning. More car salesmen saying now is a good time to buy a car.
    The Irish Home Builders Association has said house prices have reached the bottom of the downturn.
    ...
    The outlook claims that house price falls are higher than has been estimated up to now and have bottomed out.
    http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1102/house.html


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,859 ✭✭✭Duckjob


    And another article calling the bottom just this morning. More car salesmen saying now is a good time to buy a car.

    http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1102/house.html


    The association's Winter Housing Review and Outlook for 2009 says current prices are not sustainable and companies will not resume house building until prices reflect the cost of inputs and a reasonable return on investments.

    Good luck with that, lads :pac:


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    Duckjob wrote: »
    Good luck with that, lads :pac:

    It seems in this country that "a reasonable return on investments" involves flipping people over and riding them.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,305 ✭✭✭Zamboni



    The IHBA also claims that the level of unsold housing stock is being exaggerated and represents around eight months supply in normalised market conditions.

    lol


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    What is it that people are objecting to in this article? It says properties are getting more affordable, quotes the EBS/DKM survey stating that average mortgage costs will be 13% of net income by years end, then gives examples of price reductions. It cautions that many house owners are not reducing their prices enough. It then finishes by saying
    "So while it is still very much a buyer’s market, with plenty of bargains on offer, good research is still essential for any prospective purchaser"

    What's the problem? Where is it "calling the bottom"?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 17,711 Mod ✭✭✭✭Henry Ford III


    We've a long long way yet to the bottom of the market I'd suggest. Vested interests will always try to talk it up.

    There are no buyers, and no credit.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Money Shot


    Kipperhell wrote: »
    I don't get why the term bothers you. In a stable market and a rising market the concept is fine. Young couple buy a house big enough for them and maybe a child, time moves on and they want another child so they get a bigger home. The first property being the starter home. It makes more sense than buying a huge house that they buy on the belief they are going to have 2 children in the future. While they wait to have kids they are paying for the space they don't need at the point.

    I don't like the concept of the 'starter home' or 'property ladder' either for that matter. While I agree that some people will trade up as their family grows, the concept is more to do with people buying any home for the sake of getting onto a notional ladder. They bought properties they didn't need, didn't even want in a lot of cases, egged on by parents, friends, media etc. Properties that would never be suitable for their needs, but they went ahead as everyone else was doing it, and they didn't want to be left at the door of treasure trove. In a rational society, most people only buy houses to live in that they can afford, and a few people with a lot of money can choose to invest in property for capital appreciation investments or rental yields. I disagree with you in that I think most couples when they got married both a two or three bed house that they could conceivably live in for some time. If they couldn't afford to move, they would have to make do. I think that is why you didn't see so many one bedroom apartments (or starter homes) years ago - they were built to maximise profits and provide a market for the created reality that people needed a 'starter home' rather than just a home or place to live.
    I think the last 18 months has shown us that the concept was a fiction and the sooner people in ireland realise that the better. If not, we will be having this discussion again in ten years time.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    OMD wrote: »
    Where is it "calling the bottom"?
    That was referring to the IHBA statement today

    http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/1102/house.html

    The EBS/DKM affordability index is basing their figures on historically low interest rates and "the current estimates assume that the average income for a working couple has remained unchanged since July 2008". I'd say it's a stretch in many cases to say that both members of the average working couple still have a job.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,859 ✭✭✭Duckjob


    OMD wrote: »
    What is it that people are objecting to in this article? It says properties are getting more affordable, quotes the EBS/DKM survey stating that average mortgage costs will be 13% of net income by years end, then gives examples of price reductions. It cautions that many house owners are not reducing their prices enough. It then finishes by saying
    "So while it is still very much a buyer’s market, with plenty of bargains on offer, good research is still essential for any prospective purchaser"

    What's the problem? Where is it "calling the bottom"?


    They've actually gone further than calling the bottom...
    The association's Winter Housing Review and Outlook for 2009 says current prices are not sustainable...

    They are claiming here that prices have gone below the sustainable level and trying to imply a bounce back up is imminent.

    So, they are not just calling the bottom, which would be rubbish. They're actually saying we've overshot to below bottom, which is doubly rubbish.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 17,992 Mod ✭✭✭✭ixoy


    With tightened credit criteria, reduced loans, rising unemployment, reduced wages, poor national economic prospects, and current and future tax increases there's clearly never been a better time to buy!


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 2,458 ✭✭✭OMD


    Duckjob wrote: »
    They've actually gone further than calling the bottom...



    They are claiming here that prices have gone below the sustainable level and trying to imply a bounce back up is imminent.

    So, they are not just calling the bottom, which would be rubbish. They're actually saying we've overshot to below bottom, which is doubly rubbish.

    That was a different article. Anyway that article said house builders would not build any more developments because there are too many houses around now and not enough profit in building more. It does not imply that a bounce is imminent. Quite the opposite in fact. If a bounce was imminent they would be building more houses now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    Money Shot wrote: »
    I don't like the concept of the 'starter home' or 'property ladder' either for that matter. etc...
    You are confusing a good principle with what some people have done. By assuming the principle is at fault you are missing what it actually means and making faulty assumptions.
    If anybody has got them in a foolish situation (buying a house they don't want) they are at fault not the principle of buying a home for your needs with the prospect of buying more suitable for your enhanced needs later on.
    Starter home does not mean buy a house to hope the price rises and you make a profit either does the property ladder. It is simply incorrect to think they are about rising prices. It is about being slow and steady more so than anything else.
    You are really not blaming the principle of the starter home but the property market and the behaviour of people. The principle of a starter home is a sound one.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Money Shot


    Kipperhell wrote: »
    You are confusing a good principle with what some people have done. By assuming the principle is at fault you are missing what it actually means and making faulty assumptions.
    If anybody has got them in a foolish situation (buying a house they don't want) they are at fault not the principle of buying a home for your needs with the prospect of buying more suitable for your enhanced needs later on.
    Starter home does not mean buy a house to hope the price rises and you make a profit either does the property ladder. It is simply incorrect to think they are about rising prices. It is about being slow and steady more so than anything else.
    You are really not blaming the principle of the starter home but the property market and the behaviour of people. The principle of a starter home is a sound one.

    I really don't think I am confused. The principle of a starter home is a relatively new concept, which originated somewhere around the start of the celtic tiger. The concept is based on a rising market - why would somebody buy a house in a falling market knowing they will need a bigger, more expensive house a few years down the line. Would it not make more sense to rent and then buy the house you need ? Is the concept of a starter home sound in anything other than a rising market ? The principle was created to influence the behaviour of people ie to get them to buy inappropriate housing for inflated prices.
    I can't see us agreeing on this, and to be honest, it's not even worth arguing over. If you want to go out and buy a starter home, best of luck to you.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    Money Shot wrote: »
    I really don't think I am confused. The principle of a starter home is a relatively new concept, which originated somewhere around the start of the celtic tiger.
    You are very confused if you think it has any connection to the Celtic tiger. It has been around as a principle for a very long time. Pretty much been used forever and then applied to property .
    You also seem to be suggesting a conspiracy theory around a sound principle because people bought at high prices and were "fooled" by the principle. It is the fact people don't know what is being said is the problem.

    In a stable market the idea of buying for your needs and upgrading later on is quite sound. It is only distorted by exaggerated markets such as those rising and falling vast amounts.

    Are you suggesting everybody should only buy houses that will cater for all their needs forever?

    Next you will be telling me downsizing was only invented due to the current recession:rolleyes:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Money Shot


    Kipperhell wrote: »
    You are very confused if you think it has any connection to the Celtic tiger. It has been around as a principle for a very long time. Pretty much been used forever and then applied to property .
    You also seem to be suggesting a conspiracy theory around a sound principle because people bought at high prices and were "fooled" by the principle. It is the fact people don't know what is being said is the problem.

    In a stable market the idea of buying for your needs and upgrading later on is quite sound. It is only distorted by exaggerated markets such as those rising and falling vast amounts.

    Are you suggesting everybody should only buy houses that will cater for all their needs forever?

    Next you will be telling me downsizing was only invented due to the current recession:rolleyes:


    Well, I'm old enough to have bought a house pre celtic tiger, and I can assure you that I never heard of it before then, nor did anyone I know ever mention it, and unfortunately location, location or property ladder wasn't around then to educate me. I never came across many 23 year olds buying one bed apartments to rent out back then either. Did everyone who bought in the last 15 years think they were buying in a stable market - I think they did ?

    I don't think I suggested that everyone buy a house that will cater for them for ever. I was making the point that people were buying unsuitable properties to cash in and trade up, which I honestly believe is a fairly new phenomenon that can be linked to the celtic tiger economy. I think you are confusing 'starter homes' with trading up.

    I won't be trying to convince you that downsizing was only invented due to the current recession, because that would be silly, and it's pretty pointless for you to suggest I would.

    As I said in my previous post, this isn't going anywhere, and if you believe that the concept of a starter home is a great idea, then feel free and get yourself on the ladder. I've stated my opinion, and you seem to be drawing it out for pure argument sake rather than succeeding in convincing me about the error of my ways. I'm happy in my ignorance, so no need to educate me further.


  • Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 12,748 Mod ✭✭✭✭JupiterKid


    The Irish Hovel (sorry, Home....) Builders Associoation (IHBA) now claim that we've overshot the bottom of the downward cycle and prices at the current level are "just not sustainable?" Sorry lads - FAIL!

    Who the hell are they trying to fool?:rolleyes:

    As Mandy Rice Davies once famously said about the 1960s UK Defence Minister John Profumo, caught up in a sex/spy scandal at the time "well, he would say that, wouldn't he?"


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 130 ✭✭tedstriker


    Why are people so fascinated still with property?? Your house just isn't worth that much money and you will be lucky to see the return to peak prices in the next 15 years. This country is in unbelievable debt and every day that hole grows bigger. Houses are not being built, bought or sold by anyone give or take a small few. Prices have not bottomed out because house prices are reliant on access to easy CASH and that is not available. There is also a recession where people are losing jobs (12% unemployment) and therefore spending less money on rent and mortgage. People are also leaving the country. The educated Irish and foreign nationals.

    The collapse in the housing market hasn't even taken hold yet and fools who listen to a group (IHBA) that represents 1500 building firms about how the market has bottomed out should grab the noose now and save us all some precious time.

    FOLKS, get away from this notion that we will be saved by the same people that got us here. This country is F**KED. I really don't think that many people are realising just what a state Ireland will be in over the next 2 or 3 years never mind now. While all the other countries in Europe and around the world come out of recession we will be in a painfully long state of increasing taxes and high unemployment. As interest rates climb there will be little sympathy for Mary and Pat over in Ireland. In Ireland we owe far too much money and we pay ourselves way more than we should.

    House Prices bottomed out??? GET REAL. I find it hilarious to read this quote "four-bedroom detached houses with good-sized gardens in these areas, which would have sold for well over €1 million, are being sold for between €500,000 and €600,000."

    You know what €600,000 will get you in other countries? Go have a look...
    http://www.daft.ie/searchinternational.daft?s[search_type]=international_sale&s[continent_id]=1&s[country_id]=&s[region_id]=&s[mnb]=&s[mxb]=&s[mnp]=500000&s[mxp]=650000&s[pt_id]=&submit.x=34&submit.y=15&search=1

    You are having a laugh if you think €600,000 is a good deal for a 4 bed house in Dublin. People have been fooled by their own hype...


  • Registered Users Posts: 410 ✭✭Kevvv


    mrgaa1 wrote: »
    "the price is always right" if it suits the buyer - no matter what commodity is being purchased. It was a bit of non-sensical article - everyone knows whats going on. What would be more important would be to establish when the bottom has arrived - in that case it'll be sometime before we see such an article. Also why look at Dublin - there are other areas in the country they could write about - Ireland doesn't revolve around Dublin.
    The "bottom" will never arrive as the Housing & Property market is affected by expectations. People determine how the the price of property changes without even knowing it . For example at the moment people are waiting for house prices to fall further and no one will buy until they think it has hit the "bottom" as it never will will. As soon as house prices start to go back up people will buy again. Its all to do with that Law of Demand. And because property is affected by by consumer price expectations , as the price (P) of houses falls the quantity demanded (Q) for housing will fall. But as P goes back up Q will follow. So basically there is no bottom .


  • Registered Users Posts: 765 ✭✭✭oflahero


    Oh God... not another one of these. For over a decade we've had to put up with puff property pieces - now the country is fubarr'ed the tune has changed to 'the market has hit bottom, never a better time to buy' out of these ghastly shills, and the same VIs have the gall to try to imply that 'the media is not helping by talking down the economy'.
    smccarrick wrote: »
    http://www.sbpost.ie/property/the-price-is-right-for-homebuyers-45273.htmlAccording to the latest EBS/DKM affordability index, the cost of a mortgage for the average first-time buyer couple will fall to 13 per cent of their net income by the end of the year, compared with 26.4 per cent in 2006.

    Neglecting to mention how we are in a time of historically low interest rates, which the ECB will surely raise as economies other than ours recover...
    ...four-bedroom detached houses with good-sized gardens in these areas, which would have sold for well over €1 million, are being sold for between €500,000 and €600,000.

    "this Mars bar, which previously was asking 100 euros in 2006, is now on offer at an amazing 50 euros - that's HALF PRICE"

    Not to mention the cack about how new developments are being sold 'below cost' - and therefore we've hit bottom. Sure, if you overpaid for the bloody land you were building on back in 2006, but that's not our problem. I'd love to march into a stockbroker's brandishing a bunch of AIB shares, demanding my original money back, because 'I couldn't possibly sell them below cost.'


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,285 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    I'd just like to clarify- that I do not agree with the article. I posted it to promote discussion- not to try to prove a point. As I find other articles on this broad topic- I'll do likewise. Its a slightly different direction in moderating that I've started on the 4 fora I moderate.

    As alluded to above- interest rates are at a historic low- and quantitative easing means the ECB are shovelling money out the door on demand to the retail banks. They are going to slowly put the brakes on Quantitative Easing, before they increase interest rates- possibly as soon as Q1 2010 (and in keeping with the increases in interest rates elsewhere in Europe over the past 2 weeks. This is initially now thought to be their policy of choice- as they do not want further appreciation of the Euro against the dollar in particular- which is certain to occur if we plough ahead with immediate rate increases. This means- it will not be more expensive to borrow money- but there will be a lot less of it out there (even in a cash poor Irish context). Later- think Q4 2010 or Q1/Q2 2011 its probable that interest rates will commence their rise towards normalisation- a journey that may take 2-3 years (normalisation being 4.5-4.75% for overnight ECB base rates).

    This is an enormous cost just down the road- that anyone who has borrowings, or intends to borrow has to educate themselves about.

    Add the deflationary spiral of massive budget cuts into the equation- and well, in an Irish context- you have economic carnage.......

    I cannot see how or why the journalist who wrote the article is as euphoric as they appear to be...........


Advertisement