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Some Good News and Bad News (Live Register and Tax Returns)

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    #62
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    RealityCheck wrote: »
    It was very easy to determine what was happening, just very very difficult to quantify. However, the DOF have never covered themselves in glory for estimates even in the good times. Not too surprising that they are and have been miles out on forecasts. Brian Lenihan is often described as having little faith in much of the figures coming out of his own department.

    Well honestly, I'm surprised they got as close as they did with their estimate this time. Forecasting this kind of stuff is incredibly difficult to do, you're dealing with highly complex systems.


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    #63
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    smccarrick wrote: »
    According to the CSO- there is *not* a large fall in the average gross earnings in either the public or the private sector, thus far. The big fall is in NET earnings- with an increased income levy, the pensions levy in the public sector etc. Add into this- a large number of households used to having 2 incomes coming in- now down to one- and you have a better grasp of where we are at. The reduction in NET takehome pay- means people have less money to spend- which means they in turn feel poorer- and are less likely to spend, even if they can afford to do so. The Irish rate of savings increased by the largest amount in Europe in the 6 months to the end of June (I don't have more recent figures).

    People are terrified to spend- which is dragging down VAT, customs and excise- and in turn putting more people out of work........

    People have been taxed to the point- where there is little incentive to do anymore than their core hours, and little incentive to spend- as they don't know what tomorrow is going to bring.......

    The CSO reported a decrease in the number of taxpayer in the upper tax band. We won't have any hard details until the next Quarterly Household Survey though.


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