Major Storm Next Weekend

Rougies

Met Eireann have also issued a warning:

Issued at 13 November 2009 - 14:51
Warning of Heavy Rain
Very heavy rain countrywide this evening and tonight. Most places could have falls of 25mm but locally totals could reach 30 to 40 mm. Some flooding is likely.
High seas and swells, mainly on south and east coasts, with a risk of coastal flooding.

Vaild 15:00 Fri 13/11/09 to 06:00 Sat 14/11/09

Gales or strong gales will develop this evening and tonight on all Irish coastal waters.
Issued at 17:00 on 13-Nov-2009

Storm 10

Torrential rain here right now with worse showing up on the radar, this was supposed to be very bad in the South and East going by Met Eireann this morning, the system must have moved more to the West or something to bring the heavy rain in this direction.

Radar Link: http://www.met.ie/latest/rainfall_radar.asp

M.T. Cranium

It's a powerful storm that is rotating the moisture well to the north of the surface warm front which is currently just off the south coast of Ireland, and about to be undercut by a fast-moving cold front. This may ramp up the convection and bring some thunder around midnight or so.

There are very strong winds aloft of 150-200 mph (just run a satellite loop and watch the southerly jet blasting north near Dublin), if any of these mixed down to the surface in southeast Ireland there could be gusts to 60 or 70 mph briefly, but most of the action is held aloft by the frontal structure, whereas in Brittany and later on in southwest England, these strong winds will mix down to the surface -- gusts to 85 mph in Brittany recently.

Surface low (about 967 mbs) is still 100 miles or more WSW of Valentia, but extending a deep trough along the south coast of Ireland at present.

Look for this to start accelerating after midnight and the heavy rain may then rotate back around to form a north-south band moving east across the country in the late overnight while the low heads for north Wales and then Yorkshire.

Howling wind outside here now mt in south wicklow.

M.T. Cranium

Southeast Ireland to about a line from Wicklow to Cork is getting into the warm sector of this developing low, with a "triple point" forming just west of Cork and an occlusion from there to the 967 mb low located southwest of Valentia. The warm front will likely not make further northward progress and will be swept east as a back-door cold front ... if you live around south Laois or southeast Tipps you may notice at some point that the wind backs from southeast to northeast then goes calm then goes northwest, this would be the low passing overhead (around 0200 probably).

Notice the wind gusts at Marathon platform have risen to 56 kts, not exceptional, but showing that the circulation is tightening around the centre again.

Shoreline flooding likely tonight in south-facing coastal areas as storm surge cancels out the normal tide (which already peaked).

Would say that Wexford to Wicklow might see stronger gusts than other counties around 0100-0300 if any cells develop on this occluding frontal wave.

moe_sizlak

hardly saw a drop of rain here in the north east , drizzling , wouldnt be surprised if it avoids us , we,ve been dodging a lot of bulletts lately going by what ive been hearing country wide

Storm 10

In the last few minutes here the wind has begun to get up but the rain is unreal right now, just out at the front door watching an aircraft heading into Galway Airport over the City very low due weather quite a ride in for the passengers with the cloud so low and visibility so poor these guys really earn their pay on nights like this.

kerry1960

16mm here since 7pm , winds NE , 7C.

Getting worse than forcasted earlier today.
Chucking it down here! (Athlone)

Captain Furball

Lads what sites do you use to look at radar images and things?
Besides met eireann

M.T. Cranium

Just a couple for starters, you could look at these:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

http://www.meteociel.fr

Deep Easterly

Captain Furball wrote: »

Lads what sites do you use to look at radar images and things?
Besides met eireann

Try this one:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Some really heavy rain here in Galway over the last 2/3 hours. A lot of flooding. 23mm fallen since 11pm alone. November total now well in excess of 100mm so far. Not bad!. Looks like it is payback for the incredibly dry Autumn up to now . Temp is only 5.1c at the moment so feeling quite raw.

Timistry

Talk about an anti-climax! I was looking forward to this all week! Just your average day in the west:rolleyes:

Iancar29

Timistry wrote: »

Talk about an anti-climax! I was looking forward to this all week! Just your average day in the west:rolleyes:

I agree!

Seems like England and wales are getting the high winds this morning.
And there's me thinking I'd be going out to the coast to see some big waves 2day!

I suppose wit know High winds there's no damage to property.

ch750536

Captain Furball wrote: »

Lads what sites do you use to look at radar images and things?
Besides met eireann

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Best one for me.

ltdslipdiff

ch750536 wrote: »

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Best one for me.

My favourite is www.sat24.com introduced to me on this site a year ago. Great for a look overhead !

joes girls

It got very scary down here last night. Rain was so heavy, flooding only took minutes. Winds came in mad gusts, that made me think the roof was coming off the house. Just when i thought it was ok to go asleep, the thunder started, at around 3am. First storm of the winter.
Hope it will stay quiet now for a bit!

Min

Great storm, hope all are as bad - not bad at all.

joes girls, you seemed to get it a lot worse

joes girls

It was for a bit, thank god it didnt last long!!!

Rougies

joes girls wrote: »

It got very scary down here last night. Rain was so heavy, flooding only took minutes. Winds came in mad gusts, that made me think the roof was coming off the house. Just when i thought it was ok to go asleep, the thunder started, at around 3am. First storm of the winter.
Hope it will stay quiet now for a bit!

Pfff, such a drama queen!

ch750536

We have had probably the best day in about 2 months. No sign of anything other than sunshine.

Sleipnir

joes girls wrote: »

i thought it was ok to go asleep,

What are you, 6??!?!

I did find out that I have a leak in the roof of my extension. Somewhere.....

I walked about a mile in that rain in Dublin at around 19:30. It was something else alright

mike65

Some good pix from the stormy weather here

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/gallery/2009/nov/15/weather?picture=355618532

Captain Furball

Thanks for all the links lads some good sites.

Discodog

Francis Wilson has just predicted very heavy rainfall for NI tonight & tomorrow as it is in the centre of a tight circulation.

M.T. Cranium

I was just commenting over on my forecast thread that the 12z GFS run throws up three (3.0) wind events from Thursday of this week to about Wednesday of the following week (Sunday being the middle of the three).

Now the GFS has a habit of throwing these intense "dartboard" lows at us seven to ten days out, then either downgrading or totally removing them from play, so I'm not too concerned about storms two and three yet -- wind event number one is looking about 40-60 mph with west coast gusts to 75, nothing too extreme for Ireland in November, but worth keeping an eye on.

The second and third events would be stronger, if they verified, and the third one is actually about on a par with the great windstorm of 1839 or some such thing, which is why it probably won't quite happen that way. Thing is, the pattern is self-sustaining, and if there was ever going to be an intense late November storm, this is definitely the month for it, it would not exactly come as a shock to anyone in the weather field given how the jet stream has been favouring this track from the Azores to the British Isles, and western Europe is under a persistent +2 C temp anomaly for the past 30 days. These are the background set-up features always expected with major storm development (not just in western Europe, for example, in the Great Lakes region which is prone to the occasional November windstorm, the set-up tends to be similar).

I'll predict that within a day or two, there will be a new thread started for the windstorms of this coming week. I won't make it self-fulfilling by starting it myself.

Wertz

Any of these forecasted wind events to do with ET Ida remnants?

Captain Furball

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I was just commenting over on my forecast thread that the 12z GFS run throws up three (3.0) wind events from Thursday of this week to about Wednesday of the following week (Sunday being the middle of the three).

Now the GFS has a habit of throwing these intense "dartboard" lows at us seven to ten days out, then either downgrading or totally removing them from play, so I'm not too concerned about storms two and three yet -- wind event number one is looking about 40-60 mph with west coast gusts to 75, nothing too extreme for Ireland in November, but worth keeping an eye on.

The second and third events would be stronger, if they verified, and the third one is actually about on a par with the great windstorm of 1839 or some such thing, which is why it probably won't quite happen that way. Thing is, the pattern is self-sustaining, and if there was ever going to be an intense late November storm, this is definitely the month for it, it would not exactly come as a shock to anyone in the weather field given how the jet stream has been favouring this track from the Azores to the British Isles, and western Europe is under a persistent +2 C temp anomaly for the past 30 days. These are the background set-up features always expected with major storm development (not just in western Europe, for example, in the Great Lakes region which is prone to the occasional November windstorm, the set-up tends to be similar).

I'll predict that within a day or two, there will be a new thread started for the windstorms of this coming week. I won't make it self-fulfilling by starting it myself.

I love reading your posts!!!!!!
How you see this stuff is amazing, fair play to you.

maquiladora

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The second and third events would be stronger, if they verified, and the third one is actually about on a par with the great windstorm of 1839 or some such thing, which is why it probably won't quite happen that way.

25th is a long way off, and I agree MT, it probably wont even come close to getting to anything like that. But heres the wiki article on that particular storm if anyone is interested/wants to be scared: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Night_of_the_Big_Wind

Rougies

The 18z GFS is still going for the Thursday and Sunday storms. The monster shown on the 12z run for the 25th has now turned into a gentle breeze.