Major Storm Next Weekend

Discodog

One Sky forecast shows Galway wet all day another shows a dry patch middle of the day. ME reckon wet all day.

Yr.no agree with the dry patch midday & Metcheck reckon on dry most of the day.

Who's right ?. I am in Galway & I need to do some work outside,

Joe Public

I've heard about Ken Ring's 18 year cycle of weather but this one takes the biscuit with a storm pedicted for every weekend.:)

Rougies

Joe Public wrote: »

I've heard about Ken Ring's 18 year cycle of weather but this one takes the biscuit with a storm pedicted for every weekend.:)

GFS ... Good For Storms

force eleven

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=144&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=


Thursday next and Saturday are earmarked for potential stormy weather. Link is to Saturdays one. Still 5 days away so some changes are quite likely,but the trend is firming up now.

maquiladora

0Z GFS doesn't feature the storm on the 25th at all, but Thursday, Friday, Saturday & Sunday all look like quite windy days on this run. Looks like Thursday will feature the strongest winds, but it's still too far away to be sure.

ch750536

maquiladora

06Z GFS keeps Thursday windy, but not as much as previously shown. Attention shifts to Saturday on this run, shows the West getting some strong winds. Still a long way off so plenty of time for that to get up/downgraded or for the track to shift.

pauldry

potentially very stormy on thurs and sat in North. Windy elsewhere.

system admin
http://weathergossip.com

M.T. Cranium

OMG, if the 06z GFS verifies for Saturday, most of Kerry will be in Clare and most of Clare will be in Galway.

I suppose that's often the case anyway on a Saturday.

But that's looking like a 110 mph gust potential on the 15-18z Saturday maps.

I hope it's the usual GFS overkill but like I've been saying, you can't keep pumping all this warm air north next to a strong jet stream without something giving out.

By the way, I am up here at 0400 because it is too windy to sleep, gusting to about 70 mph outside here from the south. Sounds like the roof wants to come off the building when it gusts.

pauldry

This is forecast forSaturday 16 November

force eleven

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=pslv&HH=138&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=

Going by that chart the north and northwest in particular could find itself in the north Atlantic, if this chart came off....

Redsunset

accuweather reporting on storm passed, 4 dead.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=6638636001&title=The Worst Storm this Year Kills 4 People

maquiladora

12Z GFS is rolling out and it isn't pretty.

Thursday looks a bit more windy on this run, south coast areas getting stronger winds later in the day.

Saturday is really interesting. The system track and intensity has changed on the 12Z run, early in the day winds of 120kph hitting Kerry (with stronger gusts...). The south and east costal areas with with be getting 90 to 100kph winds too. As the day progresses, the system moves northward and high winds would be dragged right across the country, there would be 100kph gusts pretty much everywhere and then later in the evening the northern coast would get hammered.

Of course its bound to change again before Saturday, but worth keeping an eye on just in case....

Looking forward to hearing MT's take on the 12Z GFS.

DOCARCH

To avoid confusion, I'm going to take the liberty of starting a new thread, as potentailly it is looking very unstettled over the coming week/week end. This thread in the main really refers to last weekends storm and wet weather (for some!).

Mods - feel free to delete or modify as necessary!