Talk at 8pm tonight - David McWilliams, Alexander Hotel, "Ireland's Economic Woes"

Tim Robbins

herya wrote: »

David McWilliams is to economy what Myth Busters show is to science. None of them is unique but they happened to get popular, mostly because they do a good job. They show the direction and people can continue on to more in depth works if they take interest and have time for it.

This argument reminds of the arguments I have with people about Bono. Do bono's musing have a net positive or negative on society?

ei.sdraob

herya wrote: »

David McWilliams is to economy what Myth Busters show is to science. None of them is unique but they happened to get popular, mostly because they do a good job. They show the direction and people can continue on to more in depth works if they take interest and have time for it.

He chooses a story and wraps it around his argument when he challenges prevailing attitudes or cliches. That's how "ordinary" people think and remember - in narratives. His delivery is colourful and he is borderline too full of himself, true, but he does more good than anything else.

ah yes

this modern obsession with "dumbening" ha! down everything and treating people like uneducated "ordinary" idiots

herya

ei.sdraob wrote: »

ah yes

this modern obsession with "dumbening" ha! down everything and treating people like uneducated "ordinary" idiots

If you're capable of more ambitious intellectual effort that's great for you, honestly. But so and so many people bought his books and they did it because they're accessible. Only a fraction of those readers do or would read something more factual so McWilliams's main merit is in getting to the rest.

OMD

herya wrote: »

but he does more good than anything else.

Can you elaborate on this? Besides being the only one to predict a fall in house prices (and bought himself during this time) what else has he done that warrants "more good than anything else"?

herya

OMD wrote: »

Can you elaborate on this? Besides being the only one to predict a fall in house prices (and bought himself during this time) what else has he done that warrants "more good than anything else"?

Sorry I'll rephrase - there's more good than bad in what he does. Mostly due to his skills in presenting economy in a very (too?) accessible form. That's all.

Dannyboy83

ei.sdraob wrote: »

ah yes

this modern obsession with "dumbening" ha! down everything and treating people like uneducated "ordinary" idiots

Well, to be honest, I don't know jacksh1t about French Cuisine, when it comes to culinary skills, i'm an ordinary uneducated idiot, but even so, I could watch Keith Floyd all day.

OMD

herya wrote: »

Sorry I'll rephrase - there's more good than bad in what he does. Mostly due to his skills in presenting economy in a very (too?) accessible form. That's all.

Much like Rolf Harris's effect on the art world.

Dannyboy83

OMD wrote: »

Much like Rolf Harris's effect on the art world.

Don Conroy ruined everything!:mad:

herya

OMD wrote: »

Much like Rolf Harris's effect on the art world.

Well if I had to choose between people being familiar with art from Sister Wendy's shows and not having a clue at all...

Zynks

Tim Robbins wrote: »

...Michael Moore ....

herya wrote: »

...Myth Busters....

Tim Robbins wrote: »

....Bono....

OMD wrote: »

...Rolf Harris....

herya wrote: »

...Sister Wendy....

Remind me again, what was this discussion about?

OMD

Zynks wrote: »

Remind me again, what was this discussion about?

Michael Moore, Myth busters, Bono, Rolf Harris, Sister Wendy, David McWilliams. No sorry I don't see the odd one out. They are all about image over substance. Obviously Don Conroy is different.

Zynks

The main factor of change in any society is awareness. Awareness is created through effective communication. For the sake of effectiveness and broad reach, such communication sometimes needs to be be made in simpler terms while sticking to the core message.

I am surprised that so many people prefer to attack the messenger rather than the message.

BTW, Bono does far more to address serious social and humanitarian issues than any of his critics, who most likely are sitting behind computer screens nagging about his big head instead of trying to make a difference themselves.

What next? If Ireland goes through to the WC are going to pick on Trappatoni because of the size of his nose? Or maybe we should attack Niall Mellon for having the nerve to use his own name in the trust that builds homes in poor areas in Africa?

Are we not a bit too worried about people's vanity? Let them be vain if it makes them happy. We need to get rid of this "Irish Lobster Syndrome"

robindch

Tim Robbins wrote: »

The skeptics have a large number of pyschologists so I think you know what I meant.

AFAIR, the largest group in the ISS are software engineers. Doctors and lawyers are a good way down the list.

Tim Robbins

robindch wrote: »

AFAIR, the largest group in the ISS are software engineers.

Very interesting. I always got the impression is was clinical pyschologists.

Doctors and lawyers are a good way down the list.

Lawyers are the ultimate proponents of sophistry so that doesn't surprise me. Very sad to see Doctors so low down, possibly something to do with them been more interested in money - sadly.

robindch

Tipp Man wrote: »

Anybody go last night?? Was it any good??

Yes and yes. Whatever you think about McWilliams' views on the economy, he's certainly a great speaker -- witty and relevant.

As for Ireland's woes, he basically proposed getting ourselves out of the Euro and immediately devaluing whatever the new currency might be. As he said himself, that's not going to happen and instead, we're in uncharted economic waters where there's a post-property-bubble deflationary economy, but not one in which the government controls the national currency. Apparently that's never happened before (his unfinished example of the Massachusetts property boom of the late 1980's notwithstanding).

He's NAMA's greatest fan either and -- as he's done in the past -- has invented a cutesy name for it. VietNAMA is what we're supposed to call it now. He also described something called "granny's good room syndrome" which he believes is a part of our national psyche and directing the nation's thought. Well, maybe. Not on the evidence he produced last night though.

Anyhow, meandering aside, he still gave a great talk and if he could drop the "I told you so" and the neologizing, I think he'd appeal even to the most hardened skeptics

robindch

Tim Robbins wrote: »

Very interesting. I always got the impressible is was clinical pyschologists.

The ISS was set up by three psychologists alright, but I believe they're in a small minority now.

Tim Robbins wrote: »

Very sad to see Doctors so low down, possibly something to do with them been more interested in money - sadly.

Possibly, but I'm inclined to think that they're simply too busy. Must try to find out sometime.

Dannyboy83

I don't agree with the leaving the Euro. At all.
Its not the first time I've heard him say it and I'd loved to know why specifically the thinks its a good idea.


We are being bailed out by the ECB, even Michael O'Leary said that himself when campaigning for Lisbon.
http://audioserver.todayfm.com/audio/MichaelOLeary2909.mp3

If people cannot pay their mortgage now, what happens post euro/post devaluation?
Implosion I'd say.

Besides, we would have had to already (a)stopped borrowing and (b) massively reduced our debts in order to make it in anyway remotely feasible, and if we can manage to do that, then we don't need to leave the Euro at all.
Trying to leave the Euro without doing (a) and (b) will just see us going Icelandic in a matter of weeks.


The ECB may end up kicking us out, leaving seems kamikaze tho.
Secretly, I'm hoping the ECB will come in here and do the job that the government clearly do not have the spine to do.

RealityCheck

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I don't agree with the leaving the Euro. At all.
Its not the first time I've heard him say it and I'd loved to know why specifically the thinks its a good idea.


We are being bailed out by the ECB, even Michael O'Leary said that himself when campaigning for Lisbon.
http://audioserver.todayfm.com/audio/MichaelOLeary2909.mp3

If people cannot pay their mortgage now, what happens post euro/post devaluation?
Implosion I'd say.

Besides, we would have had to already (a)stopped borrowing and (b) massively reduced our debts in order to make it in anyway remotely feasible, and if we can manage to do that, then we don't need to leave the Euro at all.
Trying to leave the Euro without doing (a) and (b) will just see us going Icelandic in a matter of weeks.


The ECB may end up kicking us out, leaving seems kamikaze tho.
Secretly, I'm hoping the ECB will come in here and do the job that the government clearly do not have the spine to do.

Your right we have way too much euro denominated debt to consider leaving the Euro. It may have been a mistake to join the Euro, but damn it to hell it will be a much bigger mistake to leave in our current state. Better to try and ride it out im afraid.

cson

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

Secretly, I'm hoping the ECB will come in here and do the job that the government clearly do not have the spine to do.

A lot of people asking for the IMF or ECB to take over the running of the country have no idea what they're asking for. The short term pain that would be inflicted would be catastrophic for a lot of people and families in this country.

Dannyboy83

cson wrote: »

A lot of people asking for the IMF or ECB to take over the running of the country have no idea what they're asking for. The short term pain that would be inflicted would be catastrophic for a lot of people and families in this country.

As opposed to letting Fianna Fail continue leading us to the gallows?

I'll take pain over the gallows any day of the week.

Heroditas

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

We are being bailed out by the ECB, even Michael O'Leary said that himself when campaigning for Lisbon.

Don't mind O'LEary!

Unless the ECB are buying our bonds, they're not "bailing us out" in the way that O'Leary is claiming.

RealityCheck

Heroditas wrote: »

Don't mind O'LEary!

Unless the ECB are buying our bonds, they're not "bailing us out" in the way that O'Leary is claiming.

They are indirectly through the Irish banks.

Heroditas

RealityCheck wrote: »

They are indirectly through the Irish banks.

Indeed they are.
However, during the campaign for the Lisbon vote, we were spoonfed some awful nonsense such as the IMF were on their way and the "ECB were bailing us out". This was being said last year before any NAMA plan was dreamt up.

The ECB may be bailing out the banks but it'll make money out of it unless there are defaults.
The €54bn isn't being provided interest-free!

The IMF will never be asked to meddle in a Eurozone state. To do so would be tantamount to an admission that the Euro was in dire straits and would result in it losing its value. I can't see some of the Eurocrats tolerating that.

Peanut

I have a problem with DMcW's pet names for social groupings etc.

Now this annoys many people who see it as dumbing down a complex subject, but I think there is a deeper problem in that, by promoting labels such as Celtic Tiger etc., he suggests to people that there is an almost tangible entity that possesses these qualities - that the existence of the "Tiger" was an a priori fact that didn't need to be questioned.

In other words, he had (perhaps unwittingly) helped contribute to the sense of irrational exuberance over the boom years. Even if a forecast was not entirely bullish, people kept hearing these labels so much that they began to believe them.

SkepticOne

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

The ECB may end up kicking us out, leaving seems kamikaze tho.
Secretly, I'm hoping the ECB will come in here and do the job that the government clearly do not have the spine to do.

They have no powers to do that.

Tipp Man

robindch wrote: »

Yes and yes. Whatever you think about McWilliams' views on the economy, he's certainly a great speaker -- witty and relevant.

As for Ireland's woes, he basically proposed getting ourselves out of the Euro and immediately devaluing whatever the new currency might be. As he said himself, that's not going to happen and instead, we're in uncharted economic waters where there's a post-property-bubble deflationary economy, but not one in which the government controls the national currency. Apparently that's never happened before (his unfinished example of the Massachusetts property boom of the late 1980's notwithstanding).

He's NAMA's greatest fan either and -- as he's done in the past -- has invented a cutesy name for it. VietNAMA is what we're supposed to call it now. He also described something called "granny's good room syndrome" which he believes is a part of our national psyche and directing the nation's thought. Well, maybe. Not on the evidence he produced last night though.

Anyhow, meandering aside, he still gave a great talk and if he could drop the "I told you so" and the neologizing, I think he'd appeal even to the most hardened skeptics

Many thanks for that summary, would have loved to have been there. Stupid soccer getting in the way:)

Amhran Nua

Tim Robbins wrote: »

He was wrong seven years in a row about the propety boom as he began his tirades about the property around 2000. Eventually he had to be right as we all knew it had to end sometime.

He was more or less right at the time though. If the international interest rate levels hadn't been slashed shortly thereafter the property boom would have ground to a halt a lot sooner, and I don't know how he could have predicted that.

He surely isn't right all the time, such as with this idea to leave the euro, and personally I feel that his self confidence (which you'd need to push through seven years of property boom predicting a collapse) has become a bit jarring, but overall he's made a positive contribution.

Louisc wrote: »

I didn't like when in his book he sensationilised how our finance minister asked him for advice on the banking crisis in a unconventional manner (arriving late at night, a little tired and stressed, and eating a garlic clove to stay awake).
Our finance minister was tired for a reason, and he was being clever enough to enlist the advice of people who may be an expert in their field. As Woodrow Wilson once said "I use not only the brains I have, but all the brains I can borrow"

Agreed, the breach of confidence does leave a bad aftertaste, but I think he's taken the tack that any weakness in the current government should be exploited and exposed, and given the damage they are doing, its hard to argue with that.

Zynks

Tim Robbins wrote: »

He was wrong seven years in a row about the propety boom as he began his tirades about the property around 2000. Eventually he had to be right as we all knew it had to end sometime.

If the house prices settle anywhere at the pre-2001 levels plus adjustment for inflation, he was right the whole way.

Dannyboy83

I would love to know what Morgan Kelly thinks about leaving the Euro.
MK and DMCW both said similar stuff and were proved right.

Even still people are fighting it, here for example:
http://www.shane-ross.ie/archives/607/the-superstar-of-the-slump/

Tim Robbins

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I don't agree with the leaving the Euro. At all.
Its not the first time I've heard him say it and I'd loved to know why specifically the thinks its a good idea.

If we reverted to our own currency, we could devalue our it which would mean we wouldn't have to borrow as much, we could make exports competitive again and we could supply cheaper labour and get more investment into the country.

We could also set the interest rate of the central bank.