Talk at 8pm tonight - David McWilliams, Alexander Hotel, "Ireland's Economic Woes"

OMD

Tim Robbins wrote: »

If we reverted to our own currency, we could devalue our it which would mean we wouldn't have to borrow as much, we could make exports competitive again and we could supply cheaper labour and get more investment into the country.

We could also set the interest rate of the central bank.

The other side is it will effect trade with other EU countries. Also many foreign companies are in this country because we are in the euro. They may simply leave for a cheaper country in Euro.

ei.sdraob

Tim Robbins wrote: »

If we reverted to our own currency, we could devalue our it which would mean we wouldn't have to borrow as much, we could make exports competitive again and we could supply cheaper labour and get more investment into the country.

We could also set the interest rate of the central bank.

weve been thru this in another thread

* if ireland leaves the euro, the debt would still be there as its in euro
* we are still an exporter, the imports fell more than exports in this recession
* if we leave the euro there will be NO MORE BORROWING since no one would touch the country with a stick
* devaluation would make everyone poorer by same amount in order to make few richer
* eurozone is our biggest export destination, not the UK or US


i posted figures to backup all of the above in another thread, i will not go thru it again, DMcW is way wrong on this one

Tim Robbins

ei.sdraob wrote: »

weve been thru this in another thread

* if ireland leaves the euro, the debt would still be there as its in euro

Correct. But we wouldn't have to borrow as much to pay civil service salaries.

i posted figures to backup all of the above in another thread, i will not go thru it again, DMcW is way wrong on this one

That wouldn't surprise me.

Dannyboy83

Tim Robbins wrote: »

Correct. But we wouldn't have to borrow as much to pay civil service salaries.

Public Service Salaries are €19.8 billion per year
Social Welfare is €21 billion per year
[According to PG 14 of the McCarthy report]

These have to be reduced anyway, regardless of what currency we use.

Senseless risking complete economic wipeout just to preserve the current status quo.

ei.sdraob

Tim Robbins wrote: »

Correct. But we wouldn't have to borrow as much to pay civil service salaries.


That wouldn't surprise me.

aghhh :pac:

the country wouldn't be able to borrow at all

since no one would be crazy to loan money to such a basketcase, euro is only thing keeping us above the water now

RealityCheck

ei.sdraob wrote: »

aghhh :pac:

the country wouldn't be able to borrow at all

since no one would be crazy to loan money to such a basketcase, euro is only thing keeping us above the water now

Agh now, I'm sure we could strike a deal with the IMF :P.

ei.sdraob

RealityCheck wrote: »

Agh now, I'm sure we could strike a deal with the IMF :P.

ask Zimbabwe how they are getting along

and read past threads on subjects (still on front page) its rather tiring having to repeat oneself

Tim Robbins

ei.sdraob wrote: »

ask Zimbabwe how they are getting along

and read past threads on subjects (still on front page) its rather tiring having to repeat oneself

Comparisons with Zimbabwe are far fetched.

Yes it would be ludricous to leave the euro, so hence the pressure to cut dole and public service salaries. Also, if we can't cut our run rate will we be cornerned into that position by the unions?

ei.sdraob

Tim Robbins wrote: »

Comparisons with Zimbabwe are far fetched.

Yes it would be ludricous to leave the euro, so hence the pressure to cut dole and public service salaries. Also, if we can't cut our run rate will we be cornerned into that position by the unions?

as i mentioned in the other thread

the problem is high costs of welfare/PS

by devaluation you make everyone poorer (including above) equally (yes including the exporting industries) everyone, ill put it this way how would nation react if government were to say 30% flat tax across the board in next budget (income,vat you name it, same effect itll have)

you also run a large risk of money draining out very quickly and economy collapsing


i made an analogy in another thread, we have a dirty room in the house, instead of cleaning the room, some people propose knocking down the whole house, yes it will get job done but also result in alot of "collateral damage"

leaving the euro and devaluing is a most retarded of ideas, thank god the minister told this guy where to stick his opinions

Tim Robbins

ei.sdraob wrote: »

i made an analogy in another thread, we have a dirty room in the house, instead of cleaning the room, some people propose knocking down the whole house, yes it will get job done but also result in alot of "collateral damage"

cringe.

You're in a war using riffles and they are working so you get better weapons.

Note: I'm taken the mick.

Dannyboy83

More on DMCW's thinking behind leaving the Euro:
http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/2009/11/18/state-should-start-printing-money-to-rescue-economy

This article makes a lot of sense to me.
But its still not possible to leave the Euro.
There is no solution to all the Euro denominated debt and bank runs, other than to stay under the ECB wing or let the market do its magic (along with our bail out money and savings)

According to that article, the only solution then would be to create a "Good bank". Which is what a lot of people have been suggesting right from the beginning. Including DMCW's himself.

Of course, knowing this government, they will nationalize BOI, transfer anything of minute risk from AIB to BOI, and then use AIB as the good bank.
Who will happily screw us.
(Not sure if this is valid under EU competition laws of course, given Rabobank etc.)

Or transfer all crap from AIB to Anglo and let BOI collapse when the guarantee expires.

Who knows?
Troubling times we live in. We seem trapped.

ei.sdraob

davidmcwilliams wrote:

State should start printing money to rescue economy

hows that working out for UK? or Zimbabwe :rolleyes: