When average house price is €150k

_Kooli_

ntlbell wrote: »

I never stated anyone was stupid.

I simply asked you to provide me name's of "experts" you hold in high regard over the last few years.

what were they're opinions and how do those opinions match up to the laymans opinion here? guramok et al ?

You're losing the plot a little here.

Because your internet friends say "Oh you are so right ntlbell" and you say back "thankyou sonicman, you are so cool too", and on and on. you think you are held in high regard? MAybe among internet chums you are, but the appreciate you because you rub their backs too. Like i said. You are part pf a little boards.ie tag team. There is no problem with that, but please see it for what it is.

We can say what we want on the internet. Just because you said property will fall eventually you think you're a genius or something?

David McWilliams has being saying it for years and i can tell you hes no genius.

oceanclub

_Kooli_ wrote: »

David McWilliams has being saying it for years and i can tell you hes no genius.

Yeah, and those doctors who say you're going to have a heart attack because you eat blocks of lard every day. None of them ever predict the exact day, do they? Morons, all of them.

P.

asdasd

We can say what we want on the internet. Just because you said property will fall eventually you think you're a genius or something?

David McWilliams has being saying it for years and i can tell you hes no genius.

Please go buy a house.

It's a real pity you weren't here during the boom. You would have bought a house at peak and been our whipping boy.

I suggest putting Kooli on ignore. I have never met anyone so impervious to knowledge, logic, or statistical methods.

This is the conversation:


q) You guys are a tag team!
a) look up what we said on the boom.

no searching:


Q) EAs are smart because they made money!
A) A monkey could have made money in hte boom, and anyay we are not calling them stupid.

ignored:

Q) Experts are brilliant and you guys are muppets on the internet
A) We predicted the crash. It wasnt that hard. But we are credentialed anyway ( i.e. we have mathematical degress, many of us)

ignored:

q) You guys are a tag team!
a) look up what we did on the boom.

no searching:

and then it repeats. There is no way to convince this guy he is wrong. It is like teaching a pig to sing.

ntlbell

_Kooli_ wrote: »

You're losing the plot a little here.

Because your internet friends say "Oh you are so right ntlbell" and you say back "thankyou sonicman, you are so cool too", and on and on. you think you are held in high regard? MAybe among internet chums you are, but the appreciate you because you rub their backs too. Like i said. You are part pf a little boards.ie tag team. There is no problem with that, but please see it for what it is.

We can say what we want on the internet. Just because you said property will fall eventually you think you're a genius or something?

David McWilliams has being saying it for years and i can tell you hes no genius.

I'm not really sure what you're talking about

I'll break it down.

This is a question to you.

Can you tell me what experts have you listened to on the issue over the last number of years who's opinions YOU hold in high regard.

This is part two.

How do those opinions match up to those of FOR EXAMPLE guramok?

This is fairly straight forward and has nothing to do with my opinion, or who i hold in high regard or what internet friends i have.

Over to you.

ArraMusha

I put up the original post to stimulate a conversation as to when prices will be around the 150k .....and have been checking it regularly from time to time. The contributions have been very interesting.

Most notably is the fact that the majority of posts are in agreement that house price will continue to decline...and well into the forceable future.

The reasons given for this continued decline are also quite similar from different posts i.e. future interest rates hikes, lack of credit for mortgages, bubble prices that were way overhanging, and discussions on wage formulae for houses prices, unemployment.

All of this is very interesting information.

If you have read all the above and have any other interesting contribution on this topic, please post'em

_Kooli_

Lets see - the 3 amigos there can blow each others trumpets (as if you could stop them) when the average house costs €150k.

Id be only too delighted to have a place on your ignore lists. Knock yourself out.

ntlbell

I'll take your silence and refusal to answer the straight forward question as Guarmok was spot on.

Thanks for clearing it up.

_Kooli_

ntlbell wrote: »

I'll take your silence and refusal to answer the straight forward question as Guarmok was spot on.

Dont.
Im just tired arguing with people who think they are some kind of genius (not a good kind of person to be). Especially when they gang up on anyone else.
I thought i was on your ignore list anyway.

I could keep arguing all day but you'll just keep posting and posting and saying things like "i take it your silence means ....."

So how about we end the baby stuff here.

ntlbell

_Kooli_ wrote: »

Dont.
Im just tired arguing with people who think they are some kind of genius (not a good kind of person to be). Especially when they gang up on anyone else.
I thought i was on your ignore list anyway.

I could keep arguing all day but you'll just keep posting and posting and saying things like "i take it your silence means ....."

So how about we end the baby stuff here.

Huh? why would you be on my ignore list? when did i say that?

I'm not ganging up on you I'm asking a simple question, usually in a discussion these get answered and we can discuss the points made, this is how a discussion forum works.

but you have refused to answer a very simple question so I have no choice but to assume you have no answers.

ntlbell

Taken from the pin.

Here is a fine example of your experts.

Jim Power.

Feb 2007

The Irish housing market is still vibrant. There is still nothing in the overall data
to suggest that the market is starting to experience a hard landing, and indeed
the gradual slowdown that is occurring in the overall market is to be welcomed
and does suggest a stronger degree of sustainability in the longer-term.
In 2007, house completions are likely to ease back towards 85,000 units, while
national average house prices are likely to increase by around 5%, less than
half the rate of house price inflation seen in 2006.
The death of the Irish housing market is grossly exaggerated and while 2006
should represent the peak of the housing cycle in terms of price inflation and
completions, the market looks set to remain solidly based in the medium-term.


Nov 09

Irish House Prices to Fall 60% From Peak, Jim Power Says

By Fergal O’Brien
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Irish house prices will probably
fall as much as 60 percent from their peak in early 2007, said
Jim Power, chief economist at Friends First, the investment and
insurance company, in Dublin.
Prices have probably fallen by about 45 percent already and
the real estate market is likely to bottom out in the second
half of 2010, he said at an event in Dublin today.

Eglinton

Desperation obviously kicking in now for some sellers judging by this:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=423515&search=1



They'll be very lucky to get half what they're looking for. That area is a virtual ghost town now.

€150K here we come! :P

asdasd

Poor guy. Why did anyone think that a box was worth 560K?

oceanclub

asdasd wrote: »

Poor guy. Why did anyone think that a box was worth 560K?

Oh my god, it that what a 2-bed there was going for?

They're not even that big - look at the width of that living room. And it's Sandyford; the developers were hardly pressed for space.

P.

Vim Fuego

It says he bought in 2009, pure lunacy

Thanos

Maybe he got 30 million and has to loose it all to get the 300 million.
oh wait, that's a film.

Still what a way to loose money....................

oceanclub

Vim Fuego wrote: »

It says he bought in 2009, pure lunacy

P.

oflahero

Vim Fuego wrote: »

It says he bought in 2009, pure lunacy

According to that ad on propertybee, it was reduced to 350k in February of this year. Inexplicably back up to 400k in July. Maybe he'd heard about NAMA round then and figured this was the answer to his prayers somehow.

Zamboni

asdasd wrote: »

Poor guy. Why did anyone think that a box was worth 560K?

A grotesque box at that.
Seeping with false luxury.
I can see it as a backdrop for a crappy RTE programme about a guy called Ruadhri.

ArraMusha

The 150k average house price is still a bit away...but is definately attainable and lower than that maybe seen..

The other issue is that they will remain low for years.

Seems like the advise was true so far in that interest rates are rising and unemployment rising like mad. I'd expect a lot of job losses this month.

Gurgle

ArraMusha wrote: »

When do you think the average house price will be 150k.

:rolleyes: I'd think sometime around 2001.
Don't hold your breath.

Gurgle

ArraMusha wrote: »

Seems like the advise was true so far in that interest rates are rising and unemployment rising like mad. I'd expect a lot of job losses this month.

ECB Rate hasn't risen, just some lenders are treading on extremely questionable ground by uni-laterally bumbing their margins.

If we had a government, this practise would not be allowed by banks under the guarantee scheme.

Unemployment rate has stopped rising, it peaked in august/september '09 and has fallen slightly since.
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/sasunemprates.htm

spockety

Gurgle wrote: »

ECB Rate hasn't risen, just some lenders are treading on extremely questionable ground by uni-laterally bumbing their margins.

If we had a government, this practise would not be allowed by banks under the guarantee scheme.

Sweet enola gay, I'm not sure where to start

Do you know why banks increase their margins? To make money.

Do you know why the banks need to make money? Because they are undercapitalised and need to increase their cash stock.

Do you know what happens to a bank if it doesn't have enough money to service it's business? It will go bust.

Do you know what happens if a bank under the guarantee scheme goes bust? The taxpayer has to fund payback of all bondholder and customer deposits!

Why oh why oh why do you think it is in the interest of the taxpayer for the Government to ban banks under the guarantee scheme from running their business correctly by raising interest rates? It would be suicidal!

gurramok

Gurgle wrote: »

Unemployment rate has stopped rising, it peaked in august/september '09 and has fallen slightly since.
http://www.cso.ie/statistics/sasunemprates.htm

I wouldn't jump the gun there just yet. They don't have Decembers yet. The Live Register is still climbing at a small pace so its not looking good for the CSO calculated rate to fall.
Also, emigration(and return of some immigrants) has returned and Back to Education has risen alot.
Most importantly and crucially, we don't have employment numbers yet from Sept to now, that will tell what's really going on.

Gurgle

spockety wrote: »

Do you know why banks increase their margins? To make money....

Why oh why oh why do you think it is in the interest of the taxpayer for the Government to ban banks under the guarantee scheme from running their business correctly by raising interest rates? It would be suicidal!

Mortgage business is still performing - it is profitable already. The Irish banks are getting to dump their stupidest loans onto the taxpayer already through NAMA.

Applying higher margins to new loans - fair enough. If you don't like the rate don't take the loan.

Applying them to existing mortgages? - You're just increasing the repayments for thousands of people who are already in negative equity and maxed out on what they're paying. The same people who are already paying extra taxes to cover NAMA. They can't move to another lender, they can't re-negotiate the loan over a longer term.

Do you think they'll knock the margins down again when the ECB eventually do start raising the rates?

How many times can you hit the same people before they throw their keys at the banks and leave the country?

spockety

Gurgle wrote: »

Mortgage business is still performing - it is profitable already. The Irish banks are getting to dump their stupidest loans onto the taxpayer already through NAMA.

Applying higher margins to new loans - fair enough. If you don't like the rate don't take the loan.

Applying them to existing mortgages? - You're just increasing the repayments for thousands of people who are already in negative equity and maxed out on what they're paying. The same people who are already paying extra taxes to cover NAMA. They can't move to another lender, they can't re-negotiate the loan over a longer term.

Do you think they'll knock the margins down again when the ECB eventually do start raising the rates?

How many times can you hit the same people before they throw their keys at the banks and leave the country?

You're applying emotion to an argument where those in control of the situation apply none.

Gurgle

spockety wrote: »

You're applying emotion to an argument where those in control of the situation apply none.

Nope, logic.

Every paid mortgage makes the lender a small profit, regardless of equity.

Every defaulted mortgage makes the lender a large loss, directly related to equity.

If you bump up your interest rate beyond what other banks are offering you will lose the secure mortgages (i.e. people with jobs and equity) to other lenders.

The ones you keep are those who can't move because either they owe more than the property is worth or because they don't qualify for the loan under current income criteria. (Also the ones who can't be bothered / don't understand what 'interest rate' means).

Duckjob

Gurgle wrote: »

Mortgage business is still performing - it is profitable already. The Irish banks are getting to dump their stupidest loans onto the taxpayer already through NAMA.

Applying higher margins to new loans - fair enough. If you don't like the rate don't take the loan.

Applying them to existing mortgages? - You're just increasing the repayments for thousands of people who are already in negative equity and maxed out on what they're paying. The same people who are already paying extra taxes to cover NAMA. They can't move to another lender, they can't re-negotiate the loan over a longer term.

Do you think they'll knock the margins down again when the ECB eventually do start raising the rates?

"Fair" doesn't come into it. Regardless of the rights and wrongs of the situation, the banks must raise money now if they are to survive.

No doubt the banks will closely monitor how their loan books are performing but it won't be out of concern for their customers, it will be because they don't want to hit a tipping point where they "break" too many of their debtors.

Again, the banks don't care that people are paying NAMA taxes. They don't care how tight peoples personal circumstances are. They don't actually care if making your mortgage payment means you need to sit in a dark room with bread and water for the month. THEY ONLY CARE THAT YOU CAN MAKE YOUR REPAYMENT!

How many times can you hit the same people before they throw their keys at the banks and leave the country?

I think you're over-estimating the mobility of the general home-owning population. Many of the people who bought into the bubble have put down roots with kids / schools etc. Besides, people would need to go much further than simply leaving Ireland to successfully evade their responsibilities.

Senna

Gurgle wrote: »

Nope, logic.

Every paid mortgage makes the lender a small profit, regardless of equity.

Every defaulted mortgage makes the lender a large loss, directly related to equity.

If you bump up your interest rate beyond what other banks are offering you will lose the secure mortgages (i.e. people with jobs and equity) to other lenders.

The ones you keep are those who can't move because either they owe more than the property is worth or because they don't qualify for the loan under current income criteria. (Also the ones who can't be bothered / don't understand what 'interest rate' means).

The bankers are not stupid, they've done their maths, they know by increasing margins they will push up the number of defaulters, but the majority of loans are performing and will perform above 5%. So the small losses are negated by the majority paying more.
Moving banks will mean very little, as all banks will increase their margins, sooner or later.

Maserati23

Hi and sorry to intervene in this thread, you people seem much more informed than myself, I have a little question.

I got ill about 6 years ago I was in marketing at the time., sold a nice house for 380.000 back in 2004. paid 50.000 owed to clear all debts, moved down the country to a village on a river, me being the only "Dub" moved back up in 2007. Since then have been renting, I just recently got disability pension and house rental allowance.

Built a Mansion of a house in Thailand for 120.000 , in 2006 Hence not much money left.

My question is do you think Nama via the government will house myself and family in the near future? re the oversupply of empty units?


I just dont know will I stay here and wait, I am on the housing list 2 years. I think I could transfer my pension overseas , but not in conjuction with a house in Dublin.


If I have invaded this thread off topic , if you find it so, delete no problem.,
P.S. maybe I might be put down to the lad with the hand out to the government, their is such people like myself that cannot work again. I did pay all my taxes etc. up until being sick, (pancreas).

Anyhow appreciate any replies much appreciated.

Gurgle

Senna wrote: »

The bankers are not stupid,