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To buy, or not to buy?

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    #62
    Dr_Phil
    Closed Accounts Posts: 711 ✭✭✭Dr_Phil


    gurramok wrote: »
    Just be constructive and take on board what people say. That doom and gloom you speak of is in the real world, no getting away from it.
    I know, I'm trying. I really appreciate your input lads. Would be worth meeting for a few pints and discuss :)

    But FFS let me take a breath between consecutive visions of disasters that will undoubtly fall on me and Republic of Ireland and stay there for another million years.

    I can tell you one thing: the property prices in any EU capital for a 3 bedroom house near city centre will not go down for more than 10%-15% of what they are at now. In Ireland within 5 years they will be on the same level as now or higher. Save this statement and remind me if I'm wrong - no matter how crazy it sounds today.

    By the way, I wonder why no one uses example of sinusoidal wave that rule economy? People seem to think that the recession is never going to change, they are cheating themselves thinking they'll be able to get a nice house in the city for a 100k... That's just not going to happen, and recession will end, growth will return as this is the natural cycle of economy - and Ireland is no different.


    EDIT: Apologies for crap english, but I think as for the foreginer I'm doing well anyway haha :P


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    #63
    iguana
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 12,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭iguana


    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    What I expected? I don't know. Maybe some pros and cons that FEW were able to address, maybe a little pat "you'll be alright"? I have an alergy to whingers since I bought XXXXXX shares of BOI for around 20c/share. Christ, I couldn't walk beside a group of mates - so many comments about my doubtful inteligence and 100% of losing money I heard. They all shut up when I made over 1000% profit on them in a few months.. That was sweeeeet!!!! That's why I was asking before: "why not making big money now instead of whining - if you know 100% what happens, go for it.."


    Well I made STG£50k last year when I sold my house after researching the economy and then I made quite a lot more currency trading. There are many houses in Ireland which I could buy for cash tomorrow if I was stupid enough to buy a house in Ireland right now. Instead I keep renting my quite nice house and watching more and more house fall into my price range. So I've probably got you beat, by miles. Or was this not meant to be a who's the smartest/richest pissing contest?:o

    Nobody who has a clue about the economy is going to pat you on the back and tell you you'll be alright. Unless they are trying to sell you their house. But that's just facts and figures right?

    You think things have been bad in Ireland over the last few years. Well I assure you, you ain't seen nothing yet. Go ahead, buy your house, but it will be worth less before you move in. It will be worth less by next Christmas. It will be worth less the year after that and your payments will have gone up, as will your taxes and lots of your service charges. And unless you are planning on having an only child so will every other bill in your house. It's also highly likely that you or your wife, or both of you, will be on lower wages.


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    #64
    Dr_Phil
    Closed Accounts Posts: 711 ✭✭✭Dr_Phil


    iguana wrote: »
    So I've probably got you beat, by miles.
    Mine is bigger... :D


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    #65
    Agent J
    Registered Users Posts: 1,909 ✭✭✭Agent J


    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    By the way, I wonder why no one uses example of sinusoidal wave that rule economy? People seem to think that the recession is never going to change, they are cheating themselves thinking they'll be able to get a nice house in the city for a 100k... That's just not going to happen, and recession will end, growth will return as this is the natural cycle of economy - and Ireland is no different.

    That wave you speak of? The whole peak to trough thing?
    Considering the boom was the biggest this country has ever seen....
    What makes you think the trough wont be the biggest this country has ever seen either?

    Factor in the the time length as well as what makes you think a one year recession is enough for 10+ years boom?

    The Recession will end. No doubt about that. However a return to growth is something the Japanese are still waiting for... about 20 years later.

    Your life. Your Money. Your decision.

    However apart from maybe Marc Coleman and Tom Parlon you arent going to find many people ready to defend your position.


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    #66
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    I know, I'm trying. I really appreciate your input lads. Would be worth meeting for a few pints and discuss :)

    But FFS let me take a breath between consecutive visions of disasters that will undoubtly fall on me and Republic of Ireland and stay there for another million years.

    Sorry to doom you further :P, i'm watching http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1112/primetime_av.html?2647796,null,230
    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    I can tell you one thing: the property prices in any EU capital for a 3 bedroom house near city centre will not go down for more than 10%-15% of what they are at now. In Ireland within 5 years they will be on the same level as now or higher. Save this statement and remind me if I'm wrong - no matter how crazy it sounds today.

    Dublin ain't a London, Paris, Madrid, Rome or a Frankfurt. Maybe compare to Riga, Latvia. (Research Latvia and you know why Riga is picked)
    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    By the way, I wonder why no one uses example of sinusoidal wave that rule economy? People seem to think that the recession is never going to change, they are cheating themselves thinking they'll be able to get a nice house in the city for a 100k... That's just not going to happen, and recession will end, growth will return as this is the natural cycle of economy - and Ireland is no different.

    You see, they(rest of EU, Australia/Canada) don't have NAMA and bar Spain, UK and US, they did not have a huge property bubble. Only us and Spain had within that bubble a huge dependnecy on building houses to support the economy hence we suffer the most.

    Throw in the Irish public finances correction for the next 5yrs of pain(to 2014) and thats why there is so much gloom.

    If you bother to watch the Primetime link, it shows newly qualified potential public sector employees who can't get jobs because of the fiscal situation. They are young and have to emigrate.

    So please forgive us for whinging :)


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    #67
    Dr_Phil
    Closed Accounts Posts: 711 ✭✭✭Dr_Phil


    gurramok wrote: »
    So please forgive us for whinging :)
    Forgiven.

    However..... :)


    I've seen a lot worse things than Irish recession. I used to live a good while in Poland (during really deep recession that's actually never ended). Then Sicily. Now Ireland, and from what I see all the trouble are more like a slap to the society rather than a real trouble. I know, I know, I know......... There are plenty of people loosing jobs, they have kinds, they are loosing homes. But everwhere is like that! Some people are in trouble some are not. I was myself 3 years unemplyed while lived in Poland - that was a nightmare! Lonley, useless 30 y.o. man living in mummy's house because can't afford even a pack of smokes. I worked as a painter, car mechanic (I was really bad mechanic :) ) in Sicily I used ot pick oranges, lemons, grapes.. Everwhere people struggled. Never, ever had to pay 7e for 2 slices of crap bread-like stuff with a slice of ham in it. Until I arrived here.

    This recession will be good for the entire society, pity that will also involve personal tragedies... Young generation of the Irish will find out, that if you wanna work, you have to know and do something instead of just coming in half way asleep. That not everything is just given free. That social welfare are not to be paying for sitting at home just cause you banged a bird a few times and got her pregnant. AND BECAUSE IT'S BETTER FINANCIAL PROFIT OF STAING ON SW THAN GOING TO WORK. People will start value the money they have and stop slagging Polish (example) workers for bringing their own sandwiches to the canteen instead of payin 6e for a piece of sh1te worth "lunch" or 7e for a "sandwich" + 2,35e cofee. It will change and improve a lot of things.

    As for the property prices I see them on the same income/price level as everywhere else. Or very close to it.

    If you wanna buy a house in Poland: if you earn 25.000 PLN a year the house will cost 400.000 PLN. Ratios are the same, but the currencies differ. Mad prices used to be in Italy. Much more that I could afford if I wanted to buy.

    In my opinion market is slowly stabilising, cant say it will not drop any further - it might and certainly will. But properties will always keep the long term value, also it's good to own a bit of land in a long term meaning. Why? There is more and more people. Space and land are and will become dearer. Don't think Ireland is unique place though. Whoever bought on the top - got the tough lesson. But seriously - expecting 180k in i.e. Marino is a wishful thinking of greedy buyers who have cash to buy (and are used to making profits), but dont wanna spend too much - therefore in their own business is to moan and ask people to wait spreading proaganda about 100k worth houses coming on the market.

    But me not know, you wise - me stupid :) Time to bed now..

    Good night.


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    #68
    Senna
    Registered Users Posts: 8,800 ✭✭✭Senna


    Edit; though this was the 150k thread; i'll leave it anyway.
    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    expecting 180k in i.e. Marino is a wishful thinking

    I assume Marino is a good area of dublin? national average house prices doesn't mean average price in a good area of dublin or possibly any are in central Dublin.
    Dr_Phil wrote: »
    100k worth houses coming on the market.

    Plenty in Donegal and other rural areas.


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    #69
    galah
    Registered Users Posts: 2,215 ✭✭✭galah


    jmayo wrote: »
    Here hang on did I ever say they were worth the inflated amount people paid for them ?
    Yes it is tough for them if the value of their property dropped but the vlaue of all property has dropped.

    Oh btw stop saying it was hindsight, that is feeding into the myth and the sh*te eminating from some government circles that no one foresaw this. :mad:

    Check out what the likes of Morgan Kelly was syaing in 2006 and early 2007.
    Go back to the Housing Bubble thread and see the first posts late 2006 early 2007.
    BTW my first one was post #47 ;)

    not having a go at ya at all with my post - of course most of Irish property was NEVER worth the prices people paid for them (especially when you look at the actual buildings AND their locations), from a realistic perspective, but people paid what they paid, so to them, back then, these houses had 'value' in their eyes.


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