Colts vs Patriots.....Rivalry of the decade...Lets get it on

Hynzie

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

If he doesn't bobble the catch it's a 1st down (it may very well have actually been a 1st down anyway). Inches baby, inches.

Yup but if he had run a yard deeper it definatly would have been a first down:D

Ach, it's a recent rivalry and a passing phase.

It will never be a rivalry in the great sense, steeped in tradition and going back many years, the Packers Bears, Packers Vikings, Michigan Ohio State, Redskins Cowboys, even Bengals Browns, Raiders and...well almost every team!

It almost seems based on respect, which is no basis for a real rivalry. It must be based on hatred first.

Hazys

Another game in Indy and another game were the officals were poor where there decisions favour the home team. Dont get me wrong the game was the Pats to win despite the calls but it does leave a bitter taste in my mouth.


The PI call was extremely harsh at best, Butler had as much right to jump for that ball as the WR did and on 3rd and 10 it was a major call. A PI call going against the Pats in Indie...who would have thought it?

When Brady got hit from behind and fumbled, Freeney came in from the front and clocked him helmet to helmet...no flag!!! so much for Brady having his own set of rules.

The spot on the 4th down was poor at best according to the officals Faulk was a whole yard short...the tv replays showed its was ridiculously close. The media blamed Bill for burning his timeouts (one was Brady, one was Bill, both wasted tho) but if the officals were doing there job he shouldnt have had to challenge.



Plus' from the game is that the Pats are a better team than the Colts, Brady completed a couple of deep balls, defense played v well in the first 3Qs, Vollmer looks quality (hopefully Light can start at RT). Slowly but surely we are becoming to be a great team again, its early days in the season so hopefully we wont hit our peak till the playoffs.


On a final note, Fcuk the Media, Fcuk the haters who have a chip on their shoulder when it comes to Bill and are using this as a reason to jump all over him, even tho 4 weeks ago he was a genius for the same decision, just goes to show the stupdity thats out there...he is the greatest NFL head coach.

eagle eye

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

NFL coaches (and college coaches) don't go for it anywhere near enough on 4th down. Over the past decade, Bellichek and Pete Carroll have been extremely aggressive with 4th down playcalling. No, I don't think he crunched the numbers right then, right there on the sideline. He went with his instinct. One of the big things that separates Bellichek from lessor coaches is the thorough nature of his preparation, the ability to sell his system to a succession of veteran players and make them work within it. I have little doubt that he crunches the percentages after games, analyses the plays he called, compares it to league and team specific averages and figures out what worked and what didn't for future reference. As such, all of those hours running these types of calculations allowed him to make the correct instinctive decision in the moment.

As for the last bit of your post, I think you're looking at this the wrong way. Primarily, above all else you're saying that you like your chances to end the game right there, that you feel you convert more than 55% of the time (league average). Then on the other side of the coin, it's a question of weighing up how much the net distance of a punt reduces Manning's expectations of leading a TD drive from a two minute drill against a defense performing poorly. For sure, Manning is less likely to score from ~65 yards than he is from 28, but it needs to be a whole lot less likely for you to ignore your own conversion rate from 2 yards out on offense - when you're 40% to hold from 28 yards out in anycase.

Where are you getting this figure from?
The Colts are 75% certain to score a td from inside the 30 and thats over the season.
They were 100% successful in this game.
They are 45% to score from their own half on the season. 40% last night.

Just to add, the D was not performing that poorly, it was a terrible call from the official(pass interference call) that kept the Colts previous drive alive.

Chucky the tree

Hazys wrote: »

It was defly the right decision. Whether the Colts got the ball on the NE29 or the Colts 20, they had 2 mins, the 2 minute drill and 1 timeout, they were going to score. 2 minutes is a whole world of time to score.

When you have a 50/50 chance to win the game you take it.


What i dont like after reading Peter King's MMQB article, is him calling Bill's decision a bad decision when about 4 weeks ago when Bill decided to go for it on 4th and 1 against the Falcons in ur own half, he called it a great decision, the only difference is that we converted it...its still the same decision.



In Bill, I trust.

There's a massive difference between 4th and 1 and 4th and 2, it might seems like only a yard but 4th and 2 takes away a good few play opitions that could be run on 4th and 1, 4th and 2 even turns a run play into a big risk and you are nearly forced to throw it. I'm only guessing here, no stats for it or anything but a QB sneak is probably the most successful way of converting a 1 yard play which isn't possible on a 4th and 2. Thats before even taking into account of how long was left in the falcons game etc so I think it's perfectly plausable for Bill to be criticized when both scenarios are completely different. I mean giving up possession in your own half to Matt Ryan and the Falcons in completely different then doing it to the Colts and Manning. Also the pats should of just let Addai run into the endzone instead of tackling him at the 1 yard line.

LuckyLloyd

I'm just going to wrap up this conversation:

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html

The 40% to hold was the US betting exchanges reaction to New England missing the 4th and 2. As a general rule of thumb, Vegas has a very good eye for this stuff.

tallaghtoutlaws

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Nail on the head! The reaction is largely results orientated nonsense. You make the decision to go for it / not go for it in advance of the result. If that decision was flawed, making the play anyway doesn't make up for it - and vice versa.

There are loads of analysts who will be decrying the decision when they would have been hailing it if the spot had been more reasonable. It's just not a logical position to hold.

Also, there is loads of overrating Manning and the Colts (as hard as that is to believe!! ) on message boards and in the media this morning. Again, US betting exchanges gave them a 60% chance of winning the game from the 28 yard line. A lot of the talk is working off the assumption that Manning bangs it in 90% of the time. That is just wrong, so wrong.

That article is rubbish. The score when the Pats went for it against the Falcons was 26-10. Huge difference than last night. Had we given up the ball then the Falcons had 2mins to bring down a 16 point ball game. Thats 2 TDs and 2 2pt conversions. The game was in the bag and even I thought Bill was mad going for it considering the game was practically over.

tallaghtoutlaws

Deleted User wrote: »

Ach, it's a recent rivalry and a passing phase.

It will never be a rivalry in the great sense, steeped in tradition and going back many years, the Packers Bears, Packers Vikings, Michigan Ohio State, Redskins Cowboys, even Bengals Browns, Raiders and...well almost every team!

It almost seems based on respect, which is no basis for a real rivalry. It must be based on hatred first.

We all know that but Rivalries even great ones were built somewhere. To write it off because its not a historical rivalry is laughable to be honest. Pats fans see it is a now hatred type rivalry, Colts fans now see it as a new hatred type rivalry, The two teams had somewhat successful last 10 years and been at the top of the AFC for alot of it. 20 years down the line I guarantee it will still be a rivalry and do you think fans will be say "Ach, its recent rivalry"?

themont85

It was a bad call by BB end off. Going for it on 4th down should only be done in the oppoments half or if you are desperate for points. BB has being getting very aggresive on 4th downs in the past few years, Giants superbowl remember he passed up a Field Goal oppertunity. The Pats offence has come on leaps and bounds (Randy Moss is the key to that imo) and its great and all that BB has faith in them. But the Pats are built on being the ultimate 'team', personally I think BB has shown a lack of confidence in his defence and set them up as lame ducks by missing the conversion. The reason the Pats won so many Superbowls is because they were the most rounded team, they have put to much faith in an admitably destructive offence recently, kind of like the Colts over reliance on Peyton.

Hazys

Chucky the tree wrote: »

There's a massive difference between 4th and 1 and 4th and 2, it might seems like only a yard but 4th and 2 takes away a good few play opitions that could be run on 4th and 1, 4th and 2 even turns a run play into a big risk and you are nearly forced to throw it. I'm only guessing here, no stats for it or anything but a QB sneak is probably the most successful way of converting a 1 yard play which isn't possible on a 4th and 2. Thats before even taking into account of how long was left in the falcons game etc so I think it's perfectly plausable for Bill to be criticized when both scenarios are completely different. I mean giving up possession in your own half to Matt Ryan and the Falcons in completely different then doing it to the Colts and Manning. Also the pats should of just let Addai run into the endzone instead of tackling him at the 1 yard line.

4th & 1 and 4th & 2, yes there is a difference with slightly lower odds of completing it but c'mon its practically the same decision. Bill was also going to close out the Dolphins game last week by going for it instead of kicking the FG but a penalty forced his hand.

Bill's decision was and will always will be on 4th and short leave it in the hands of Tom Brady and his offense to win the game, win the game by being aggresive not conservative, and i agree with him

Also they shouldnt have let the Colts just run it in, it was a totally different situation to the Jags V Jets game as the Jags only needed a FG to win not a TD, the Pats only had 2 more plays to stop the Colts in the endzone it was possible, see Will McGinest's tackle on Edrginn James on 4th and goal on the NE 1yrd line in 2003 with no time left. (see 4:34)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvtgoKWsdk8

tallaghtoutlaws

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

Pats fans see it is a now hatred type rivalry

I guess you have a point.

And when you see the numbers that used to go to Pats games, a lot of them clearly will only have recent memories too and have only joined up during the successful era, so recently formed rivalries will mean that much more to them.

tallaghtoutlaws

Deleted User wrote: »

I guess you have a point.

And when you see the numbers that used to go to Pats games, a lot of them clearly will only have recent memories too and have only joined up during the successful era, so recently formed rivalries will mean that much more to them.

Yup most of us old dogs know of our true rivalries but the Colts rivalry is starting to form. Give it 10 years and it will be a fully fledged old skool rivalry.

Hazys

Deleted User wrote: »

I guess you have a point.

And when you see the numbers that used to go to Pats games, a lot of them clearly will only have recent memories too and have only joined up during the successful era, so recently formed rivalries will mean that much more to them.

You obviously dont know what you are talking about and bringing up BS about bandwagons, Pats fans have always and will always hate the Jets more than the Colts...which is our main rivalry.

tallaghtoutlaws

Hazys wrote: »

You obviously dont know what you are talking about and bringing up BS about bandwagons, Pats fans have always and will always hate the Jets more than the Colts...which is our main rivalry.

I dont think he was getting at anything other than a lot of new Pats fans see the Colts rivalry as big as the Jets when we both know it isn't and it never will be. Our pure hatred for the Jets doesn't extent to the Colts just yet.

Hazys

Hazys wrote: »

You obviously dont know what you are talking about and bringing up BS about bandwagons

Just making the point that attendances at Patriots games were low before their recent success. Sure they had games in front of crowds of just over 20,000 at games in Foxboro. If you chose to call it a bandwagon, well that's your word not mine. As for the Jets rivalry, at least you know about it, it appears that some here think the Colts are your rivals.

frostie500

Hazys wrote: »

Bill's decision was and will always will be on 4th and short leave it in the hands of Tom Brady and his offense to win the game, win the game by being aggresive not conservative, and i agree with him

Would you still agree with him if he made that call an the AFC Championship game?

For me by putting the ball in the offences hands he has basically told his defence "I've no confidence in you at all and i dont think you can stop Manning going 70 yards." How can that be good long term for the Pats this year?

LuckyLloyd

themont85 wrote: »

It was a bad call by BB end of. Going for it on 4th down should only be done in the oppoments half or if you are desperate for points. BB has being getting very aggresive on 4th downs in the past few years, Giants superbowl remember he passed up a Field Goal oppertunity. The Pats offence has come on leaps and bounds (Randy Moss is the key to that imo) and its great and all that BB has faith in them. But the Pats are built on being the ultimate 'team', personally I think BB has shown a lack of confidence in his defence and set them up as lame ducks by missing the conversion. The reason the Pats won so many Superbowls is because they were the most rounded team, they have put to much faith in an admitably destructive offence recently, kind of like the Colts over reliance on Peyton.

lol

eagle eye

The hatred for the Jets was never as bad either until 12 or so years ago. When the tuna left us to join them it got way more serious. And then Curtis Martin joined them as well. We got the better of that one though and it fueled the fire even more when Belichick quit, remember that he got up on the podium and said 'I resign as head coach of the New York Jets' on his first day.

Hazys

tallaghtoutlaws wrote: »

I dont think he was getting at anything other than a lot of new Pats fans see the Colts rivalry as big as the Jets when we both know it isn't and it never will be. Our pure hatred for the Jets doesn't extent to the Colts just yet.

Even new fans (including myself who only became a fan after watching my first Superbowl in 2001) would hate the Jets over the Colts, as most automatically hate New York from birth and the whole Mangini/SpyGate affair was in recent years, the fact that they are in the same divison and play twice a year.

Man i hate the Jets, I was in NYC the weekend before last, the amount of Yankee caps and Jets jerseys would make you throwup...

Chucky the tree

Hazys wrote: »

Also they shouldnt have let the Colts just run it in, it was a totally different situation to the Jags V Jets game as the Jags only needed a FG to win not a TD, the Pats only had 2 more plays to stop the Colts in the endzone it was possible, see Will McGinest's tackle on Edrginn James on 4th and goal on the NE 1yrd line in 2003 with no time left. (see 4:34)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvtgoKWsdk8

I meant Addais first run which went 13 yards that made it 1st and goal on the 1 yard yard line, if your going for broke on 4th and 2 because you don't think your D will stop Panning from 70 yards why suddenly think they can stop him from the 1 yard line? If he ran in the Pats would of had over 1:20 still left on the clock.

Wolves

Agree that going for it on 4th down is the right call here. They will convert this well over 50% of the time and when they don't as lloyd said they still have somewhere around 40% chance to win.

What surprises me is that when colts get to the 1 yard line there is still over 1 min on the clock. The pats allow the clock to run then stop them on 1st down and eventually leave only 13 secs on the clock.

Weighing things up I would have thought using their timeout here and allowing the colts to score on 1st down giving Brady over 1 min to drive down for a field goal is a better percentage play in this spot.

frostie500

Wolves wrote: »

Weighing things up I would have thought using their timeout here and allowing the colts to score on 1st down giving Brady over 1 min to drive down for a field goal is a better percentage play in this spot.

They had no timeouts left

LuckyLloyd

Wolves wrote: »

What surprises me is that when colts get to the 1 yard line there is still over 1 min on the clock. The pats allow the clock to run then stop them on 1st down and eventually leave only 13 secs on the clock.

Weighing things up I would have thought using their timeout here and allowing the colts to score on 1st down giving Brady over 1 min to drive down for a field goal is a better percentage play in this spot.

Completely agree. There was a definite mistake in the way they defended once the Colts got down to the line. There might even be an argument for letting them score when they got that close.

Wolves

frostie500 wrote: »

They had no timeouts left

Ok i didn't realise that. It was late. I thought they had 1 left.

If anything BB should be getting stick over wasting the timeouts and not over the 4th down call.

Hazys

Deleted User wrote: »

Just making the point that attendances at Patriots games were low before their recent success. Sure they had games in front of crowds of just over 20,000 at games in Foxboro. If you chose to call it a bandwagon, well that's your word not mine. As for the Jets rivalry, at least you know about it, it appears that some here think the Colts are your rivals.

But also add in the fact Bob Kraft built a new stadium, made it easier to get to games, advertised better, more people were going to come anyway not matter the added sucess. The old stadium was a dive and had a very drunken rowdy atomsphere which turned families away from games

To say the main reason that the stadium is full every game now and there is a 10 year waiting list for season tickets is down purely to bandwagon supports is very narrow minded. Of course success will bring people tru the turnstiles but the Patriots were always very strongly supported in Boston & New England area, of course theyll never be the main team in the area but they are not one of most highly profitable and supported teams in the league because they won the Superbowl in 2001. That win didnt turn them from 20,000 a week to 68,000 a week overnight.


Maybe Pats fans in Ireland think the Colts rivalry is bigger than the Jets, but you are seriously underestimating how much Boston and New England people hate New York!!! I was at a Celtics game during the World Series and a "Yankees Suck!" chant broke out in the middle of the game.

Hazys

frostie500 wrote: »

Would you still agree with him if he made that call an the AFC Championship game?

For me by putting the ball in the offences hands he has basically told his defence "I've no confidence in you at all and i dont think you can stop Manning going 70 yards." How can that be good long term for the Pats this year?

Would you still disagree with the decision if the Pats had converted the 4th and 2?

Chucky the tree

While the Pats Colts rivalary is big it's also built on a lot of mutual respect as well I think. There never seems to be any major incidents during the game and they are pretty played in great spirit. The Jets rivalary is far wrose, not only are they rivals but Jets getting Mangiani as HC which really pissed Bill off, then spygate schnanigans, lol epic. I even remember the Matt Light(think it was him anyway, could of been the TE though) and channing crowder getting ejected for fight in the dolphins match. I just could never see something like that happen in a Colts Pats game as the rivalary is no where near that level.

tallaghtoutlaws

Hazys wrote: »

Maybe Pats fans in Ireland think the Colts rivalry is bigger than the Jets, but you are seriously underestimating how much Boston and New England people hate New York!!! I was at a Celtics game during the World Series and a "Yankees Suck!" chant broke out in the middle of the game.

See I thought this also the whole European and Irish thing not really knowing who our biggest rivals are but any team from New York especially the Jets and Yankees in sports are the standout rivals. Boston and New England folk hate anything NY. The Jets will always be top of our hatred list and as Eagle Eye said the Fish are on there also. But the Steelers and now Colts will be on that list and the Giants got thrown on there. Just sent a message to my girlfriend and she just text me back saying **** NY and the Jets. She is die hard Patriots and from MA.:D

tallaghtoutlaws

Hazys wrote: »

Would you still disagree with the decision if the Pats had converted the 4th and 2?

As someone who coaches and plays the game I would have said yes. But would have commended to him for his gutsy call. As I do for last night but it still wouldn't change my opinion that it was stupid and the wrong decision.

Hazys

Chucky the tree wrote: »

I meant Addais first run which went 13 yards that made it 1st and goal on the 1 yard yard line, if your going for broke on 4th and 2 because you don't think your D will stop Panning from 70 yards why suddenly think they can stop him from the 1 yard line? If he ran in the Pats would of had over 1:20 still left on the clock.

TBH it may have been a bright move but i dont like to lay down and die and let a team score.

If you thought it showed no confidence in the defense to go for it on 4th and 2, it would have certainly showed no confidence in them to tell them to give up trying while they are on the pitch.

Also i dont think it was a lack of confidence in the defence as much as it was confidence in Tom Brady. Sure Bill did the exact same thing against the Dolphins the week before, he choose to leave his offense out on the field on 4th and Inches to close the game rather than take a 35yrd FG with a Pro Bowl kicker to go 10pts ahead.