Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

M.T. Cranium

The 18z GFS is slightly more intense, keeping a 960 mb centre to Donegal Bay, but in any case, I was expecting gusts to 85-90 mph and now I would say 90-100 mph possible at more exposed locations. Unless this somehow falls apart at the very last moment, it's going to be very bad ... pushing a lot of water into Galway Bay and the Shannon estuary too, high tides will surely see some overtopping of seawalls around those coasts (cliffs of Moher should be okay)

Where's RoisinD these days, she used to report from north Clare sometimes?

Basically, this is going to be bad all across the country, some central locations may not seem too bad if they're well down in a valley to escape the worst gusts, but otherwise, most places will see winds as strong as they've seen in quite a while.

The gradient now is only two-thirds what it will be at 0900h-1200h.

eigrod

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The gradient now is only two-thirds what it will be at 0900h-1200h.

Thanks for the update.

Is that going to be the worst time for high winds ? Will it ease thereafter ?

billy the squid

Highest gust in last hour - 92.6 kmph at Roches Point

maquiladora

eigrod wrote: »

Thanks for the update.

Is that going to be the worst time for high winds ? Will it ease thereafter ?

After the Nine News, Gerry Murphy said the low would be moving away fairly slowly, so the winds would only slowly reduce going into Sunday night but they are expected to peak around then yeah.

Meanwhile, its spinning ever closer to us : http://www.sat24.com/gb

maquiladora

Upgrade from Met Éireann, they'd dropped "windy", now just using "stormy" in their forecast :

21 November 2009 22:26

Today

Stormy tonight with heavy showers of rain and hail and some thunderstorm activity also. Lowest temperatures 5 to 9 degrees.


Tomorrow

Sunday will continue stormy with further thundery downpours.

Also, Gale Warning got updated at 10pm "Gale force 8 to Storm force 10 winds tonight and during Sunday on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea".

M.T. Cranium

Gusting to 60 knots at the M6 buoy (near 16W) out in the part of the gradient that should be over Galway by 0600h.

Seas will rise steadily as the new SW to W fetch overcomes the chaotic sea state left behind by the SSE gales earlier.

Peak winds still expected 0900-1200 but very little abatement of those until past midnight.

Another round of same could develop Tuesday 9 pm to Wed 0600h.

JanuarySnowstor

There's a really bad cluster on the latest sat image spinning around about 200 miles southwest of Kerry.
If that strikes here anything could happen.
I've a feeling in my bones that something noteworthy will happen in the next 12 - 18hours or so.
Somebody will get 100mph gusts & tornado's a very disticnt possibility

Duiske

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

it's going to be very bad ... pushing a lot of water into Galway Bay and the Shannon estuary too, high tides will surely see some overtopping of seawalls around those coasts .

That would be my fear. I've mentioned it already in this thread, but the sea being pushed into the mouths of already swollen rivers, especially at high tides, is a recipe for disaster.

billy the squid

Highest gust in last hour - 85.2 at Belmullet and Mace Head

mike65

The windy rain has picked up, it was coming from the east earlier today but now its from the west.

Mc Love

Where are ye getting this info from?

IMBACKLATER

gerry murphy also stated on the forecast this eveing that based on latest information, further heavy rain would be pushing into southern areas again on monday/tuesday.

Birdnuts

Multiple lighting strikes here near Kill Village(Co. Kildare) 30 minutes ago - really spectacular stuff:cool:

M.T. Cranium

Now gusting to 64 knots at M6 buoy, 8 metre waves.

Low is now centered about 55 N 17 W heading just about due east, perhaps a touch north of due east, should be just north of Malin Head by 1200h.

I must be getting into this, I was wondering a few minutes ago why it was so calm outside.

Davo D

M6 buoy gusting to 64 knots (118.5 km/h) now.

Timistry

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

There's a really bad cluster on the latest sat image spinning around about 200 miles southwest of Kerry.
If that strikes here anything could happen.
I've a feeling in my bones that something noteworthy will happen in the next 12 - 18hours or so.
Somebody will get 100mph gusts & tornado's a very disticnt possibility

Will it be a direct hit?:eek:

Tactical

Is it possible to explain what is meant by "a really bad cluster?"

MotteDai

Really strange everything gone 'quiet' here on clew bay??? is this the 'calm' before the storm?

Timistry

Tactical wrote: »

Is it possible to explain what is meant by "a really bad cluster?"

I presume he means a cluster of towering cb clouds that could produce intense thunderstorms or in extreme and ideal conditions, one might spawn a tornado. happended in england this week so it is not unheard of. Probably wont happen though

Deep Easterly

Nutt'un happening here so far, just the occasional 30mph+ "gust" :rolleyes: with the odd spickle of light rain.

All eyes on later on! :pac:

dloob

Windy in Galway City now during a heavy shower.
It's still calm enough between them.
I can see MotteDai's ark out in the bay I hope he'll be ok out there until 6am when the dock gates open

Tactical

Appreciate the explanation. Thank you

cian1500ww

I seen a map a while ago showing the met eireann buoy locations, can't seem to find it now though, anyone know of one ?

maquiladora

Heavy rain in Waterford here, I think there was a brief squall for about 30 seconds, unbelievable rain/wind, thought there was a tornado on the way or something! Calmed back down to a regular windy downpour now.

peasant

on a side note ...the centre of the low currently looks like an eagles head :cool:

Takeshi_Kovacs

At the moment, that large cluster, looks like it will mostly miss Ireland and continue over Wales

Wertz

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

There's a really bad cluster on the latest sat image spinning around about 200 miles southwest of Kerry.
If that strikes here anything could happen.
I've a feeling in my bones that something noteworthy will happen in the next 12 - 18hours or so.
Somebody will get 100mph gusts & tornado's a very disticnt possibility

Was just looking at that on the airmass maps. Interesting looking area...I thought it looked a bit like a face in shadow. Scary looking, especially when you see the jet streak piling in behind it (in red).




http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/WESTERNEUROPE/index.htm

Hope that doesn't keep growing and maintaining it's present course...

Discodog

MT I don't think coastal flooding will be a problem. I was walking by the sea, west of Galway, at high tide & the sea was still fairly low. It would need a really big build up to flood.

maquiladora

Sea Area Forecast until 2400 Sunday 22 November 2009

Issued at 2400 Saturday 21 November 2009


Gale warning: In operation

Small craft warning: See Gale Warning.

Meteorological situation at 2100: A storm depression of center 954hPa 300 nautical miles west of Belmullet is tracking eastnortheastwards and will pass close to the north coast during Sunday.

Forecast for all Irish Coastal Waters and for the Irish Sea
Wind: Southerly Gale force 8 to strong gale force 9 with gusts to storm force 10. Gradually veering southwest to west and increasing generally to storm force 10 with gusts or mean speeds for a time during Sunday to violent storm force 11.
Weather: Heavy rain/hail showers. Thunderstorm activity also.
Visibility: Poor in precipitation otherwise good. Warning of heavy swell on southwestern, western and northern coastal waters.

Outlook for a further 24 hours until 2400 Monday 23 November 2009: Storm force westerly winds gradually decreasing strong to gale force. Showers or longer spells of rain.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/sea-area.asp

PauloMN

cian1500ww wrote: »

I seen a map a while ago showing the met eireann buoy locations, can't seem to find it now though, anyone know of one ?

Would it be this one?
http://www.met.ie/pop/sea-area-map.htm