Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

M.T. Cranium

I think most of that convective cloud to the southwest is going to miss Ireland to the south and hit Cornwall instead, but some of it may shear off and move across the southeast. There may be similar development to the west later tonight that would concern me more for tornadic development on land by morning. Watching that carefully ... meanwhile, the winds continue to howl at the M6 buoy and waves have suddenly ramped up to 11 metres. Expect them to peak around 14-15 metres, the highest waves with these systems are often just to the south and southwest of the low centre.

About the tidal surge potential, the one good thing is that we are halfway from new moon to full moon so that the astronomical tides are not as high, but a 2-3 metre storm surge is possible with this situation, so the next high tide and the one after that would be the problematic ones, for the past six hours the wind has been more south than west which will change soon, to favour higher tidal levels in the west-facing bays.

dloob

Discodog wrote: »

MT I don't think coastal flooding will be a problem. I was walking by the sea, west of Galway, at high tide & the sea was still fairly low. It would need a really big build up to flood.

Heading for neap tides at the moment which helps, would have been worse last week when it was spring tides.

cian1500ww

PauloMN wrote: »

Would it be this one?
http://www.met.ie/pop/sea-area-map.htm

That's the one, thanks

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think most of that convective cloud to the southwest is going to miss Ireland to the south and hit Cornwall instead, but some of it may shear off and move across the southeast. There may be similar development to the west later tonight that would concern me more for tornadic development on land by morning. Watching that carefully ... meanwhile, the winds continue to howl at the M6 buoy and waves have suddenly ramped up to 11 metres. Expect them to peak around 14-15 metres, the highest waves with these systems are often just to the south and southwest of the low centre.

About the tidal surge potential, the one good thing is that we are halfway from new moon to full moon so that the astronomical tides are not as high, but a 2-3 metre storm surge is possible with this situation, so the next high tide and the one after that would be the problematic ones, for the past six hours the wind has been more south than west which will change soon, to favour higher tidal levels in the west-facing bays.

So there is a chance of tornados in the west, or tornado like conditions ?

MotteDai

Its blowing up again now here after 2 to 3 hours of calm... its not blowing heavy just strong.. I dnont know enough about weather but i can see the sea surges frm me window and they're large. they're breaking higher than normal over the bay, it must be big out there.
I hope ta f''k theres no one caught out there in it. Im watching but its tooo calm for being natural with that knd of break.
Ark ready to be deployed!
good luck all til later....

jenzz

Jens starting to worry now - flew in from Mexican caribean this morning - we missed IDE by a whisker last week - can I be that lucky twice ???? its so so calm out there now......

ninebeanrows

What a beast of a system.

Almost a symmetrically perfect storm system.

The west is going to be battered.

Batten down the hatches.

http://sat24.com/region.aspx?type=last&time=200911220215&country=gb

IMBACKLATER

the wind has really picked up now here on the west coast, all of a sudden a roaring gust blew up outside very squally,

maquiladora

This thread will be very busy in the morning...

Meanwhile, 122.2 Kmph gust at the M6 buoy.

12.8m waves....

Sierra Oscar

Wind is picking up here now again . . .

MotteDai

Gettin wild on clew bay now,

Drummer Mummer

Clear and a slight breeze here in the North East. Do I still need to batten down the hatches?

maquiladora

lucernarian

The attachment is more alarming... It looks like storm force winds are present off the Irish west coast currently. The storm has not peaked in intensity yet. Winds will probably be worst in Galway/Mayo but I guess that part is unfortunately becoming obvious.

Currently no Estofex warning, which I am suprised at, personally. I felt the chance of strong or severe squalls tomorrow would be remarked upon.

maquiladora

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

The attachment is more alarming... It looks like violent storm force winds are present off the Irish west coast currently. The storm has not peaked in intensity yet. Winds will probably be worst in Galway/Mayo but I guess that part is unfortunately becoming obvious.

Currently no Estofex warning, which I am suprised at, personally. I felt the chance of strong or severe squalls tomorrow would be remarked upon.

You have to click on Tomorrow to see the Orange Estofex warning.

The 0Z GFS is rolling out, and for what its worth it tracks the storm slightly further south and perhaps increases intensity a little too but doesn't change much from the last run.

Looks amazing on the satellite loop now.

Mc Love

Still quiet (normal) night in Limerick and been for a good drive around city and suburbs!

Redsunset

M6 buoy wave height as of 3am is 13.3 m
Expect some nasty onshore waves later and any town near a river mouth to be in bother.

lucernarian

I think I selected the wrong link when using google. I just typed in www.estofex.org instead, and I found the actual report with no issues. The forecaster's geography needed a bit of improving. By the GFS's account, the jet streak stretches towards Ireland... unless the forecaster was becoming political (NI) and not strictly geographic. Also, the risk seems to be centred around the Irish Sea. Apart from the Irish omissions, since when was the IOM and Cumbria part of southern UK??

Trivialities aside, I was following the 00z release also, and its only further confirming that the next 12 hours will be testing for those at the weather's mercy currently.

maquiladora

To_be_confirmed wrote: »

Trivialities aside, I was following the 00z release also, and its only further confirming that the next 12 hours will be testing for those at the weather's mercy currently.

Indeed. It also looks increasingly likely that we'll have a new thread for Tuesday night too...

M.T. Cranium

00z GFS changes nothing, strongest winds about to arrive in Connacht, peak winds likely 0900-1200 (same as we've been saying) ... tornadic wind streaks will be easier to detect on radar because satellite only showing higher altostratus overcast in strong wind zone, anything more developed in lower levels would be under this and out of view. Radar will detect them, could be just about anywhere as I'm expecting the 06-09 radar situation to be chaotic with long streaks of convection.

Storm is tightly wound and forward motion is increasing slightly, which should compensate for slight filling tendency (from 954 to 960 mbs in next 6 hrs).

Strong winds will set in rapidly, daylight will tend to accelerate mixing and to some extent the very strong winds are held a bit above the surface at night.

Huge waves will be arriving on west coast soon as well, building to peak around 1100-1400h.

maquiladora

M.T., is that convection thats popping up on the IR loop close to the center a sign on intensification?

http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

Hooter23

Hi MT are we likely to get more lightning from the band of rain moving into the west right now or not

M.T. Cranium

Probably a better chance when winds become more westerly and the convective cloud out to the west of Clare moves inland later this morning. Usually the lightning frequency on land peaks in the mid-day and afternoon periods. Patience required, the storm is just starting to move in now.

Redsunset

Hey M.T was wondering about the evolution of this since 04.00 utc

circled blue. we look to be in its path,taking the swirl into account

looks like severe covective clouds to me.watch the developement of it.

http://www.sat24.com/gb

Redsunset

This was it couple of hours earlier

munsterlegend

still fairly quiet in north cork - odd squall and rain shower but nothing exceptional. will it get worse shortly or has the the storm landed?

gally74

its been a rough night in galway, winds were very bad around 5-6, heavy rain too,

maquiladora

114.8kmph gust at Ballyhaise.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

114.8kmph gust at Ballyhaise.

things do appear quiet overall - was expecting the forum to be very busy with the winds predicted or are we still at the early stages? the band of showers rain seems slow moving at the moment.

also the rain predicted for the south tonight per met eireann - is that likely to happen?

Deep Easterly

Either I slept through the worst of it or it has yet to arrive but no more than a usual windy autumn morn here. Pressure is bottoming out at 981.8mb so maybe the strongest winds will occur when it starts to rise which tends to be the usual story.

force eleven

Not too bad here, just a strong breeze really,but we're well inland . It was windier yesterday morning. However wind at Belmullet gust at 62 knots, so perhaps it is still to peak anywhere yet.