Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

maquiladora

Well, still a while to go until Saturday but the UK Met Office isn't taking any chances, they've issused 'be aware' weather advisories for rain/wind for pretty much the entire Western half of the UK and NI for Saturday along with some other advisories for the days leading up to that.

maquiladora

Met Éireann outlook mentions "very windy" 3 times, for Wednesday night, Thursday and Saturday.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Iancar29

LOoks like theres gonna be yet again a lot of rain for most of us 2moro.
And the ground mostly saturated its not gonna be good for some parts.JUst look at this satellite image and tat nasty lookin cloud off to the SW!

rc28

Flood warning out - http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

maquiladora

12Z GFS run is coming out, here is Saturday.....

Wind


Rainfaill


Sea level pressure

M.T. Cranium

Looks ominous on the 12z GFS alright, and meanwhile Thursday not so windy at this point ... could be warning justification by later today.

Redsunset

SKY NEWS WEATHER WARNING


UK Faces Two-Days Of Rain, Floods And Gales


1:34pm UK, Tuesday November 17, 2009
Rob Cole, Sky News Online
Britain looks set to get another battering from the weather this week with forecasters warning of heavy rain, gales and flooding.



The western side of the country is expected to be worst hit by the weather


Western England, Scotland and Ireland can expect a two-day drenching, with continuous rain predicted to fall for almost 48 hours.
The rain will sweep in across Ireland on Tuesday night, spreading to northern England and north Wales by Wednesday morning.
Heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph are then expected to sit over Ireland, Wales, western England and southern Scotland on Thursday and Friday.

The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for the end of the week.
Sky News weather presenter Lisa Burke said there was a risk of local flooding following several days of wet weather



Parts of Wales, the Lake District and southern Scotland are particularly at risk - with up to 100mm of rain forecast to fall.
Some 50mm is expected to fall on lower ground.
"We have got two and a half days of continuous rain in some places on top of land that's already sodden from the weekend and Monday," Lisa said.
"The sheer duration of how long it will be raining will mean there could be local floods in the West."

Despite the wind and rain, Lisa said it would be relatively mild with temperatures not expected to dip below 12C.
The bad weather follows a weekend in which Britain was hit by the biggest storm of the year so far.
Winds of 100mph caused floods along the South coast and damage to homes.

Deep Easterly

UKMO 12z looks rather odd for Saturday:



No sign of any explosive low near our shores but even that chart holds plenty of scope for it to happen in the form of an active wave or 2.

M.T. Cranium

Seems like the GFS is currently the outlier with a stronger storm closer to Ireland than the three most credible alternatives (ECM, UKMO, GEM) which all show a moderately deep low near 20 W moving northeast with varying impacts on Ireland (from glancing blow to almost as strong as GFS).

The GEM has been performing a bit better in recent months and may deserve to be elevated to "top four" status nowadays instead of just having a top three. But what I notice on this GEM output is that the deep surface low is not exactly where I would expect to see it against the 500-mb panels, in fact you might expect a deep low to be closer to the GFS position at 12z Saturday from this consideration.

Given that all models are fairly similar on the three-day evolution to late Friday, it seems to me that a blended solution might be the "best guess" to work with at this stage, factoring in that the GEM surface low could be three or four degrees too far west for the upper support.

That still blends into a very strong weekend storm that would take a path near the M6 buoy towards the Hebrides, the path that is usually associated with storm force winds in Connacht and gales elsewhere in Ireland. If the GFS wins this contest hands down the storm force winds could be more extensive than just Connacht.

There remains the slim prospect of a sudden lurch east like last weekend but with this consensus further west, I have to rate that in the 10% probability range.

Thursday itself will be quite windy too as a wave forms in the constant 30-50 mph southerly flow, and could ramp up speeds in western counties to more like 50-70 at times.

The rainfall potential looks about as mentioned in the alerts to me, but that could tend to be downgraded if it turns out to be more drizzly than expected. There will be lots of moisture in the air, but wringing it all out takes some sort of process like orographic uplift or frontal contrast, otherwise, it just streams overhead in dense layers of stratocumulus and drops most of its load on western Scotland.

Hooter23

The weather in galway has really gone down hill in the last few hours torrential rain and hail thunder also

Storm 10

Jeez this is where its coming from really bad here now.

Deep Easterly

10.7mm since the rain started here around 6.30pm with puddles and minor floodings galore. No thunder though :mad: :pac:

Storm 10

Deep Easterly wrote: »

10.7mm since the rain started here around 6.30pm with puddles and minor floodings galore. No thunder though :mad: :pac:

Hi Deep Easterly just had some of that blue lightning we were on about yesteday only this time some very loud thunder as well. lots of flooding in the City

Deep Easterly

Storm 10 wrote: »

Hi Deep Easterly just had some of that blue lightning we were on about yeasteday only this time some very loud thunder as well. lots of flooding in the City

I heard S10. My uncle in Ballybrit confirms very loud thunder and lightning. Just getting the rain here and getting heavier and heavier all the while. A wet night across city and county tonight! :cool:

Edit: torrential rain here now!!!

Deep Easterly

This site shows up where lightning has struck over the last couple of hours:
http://www.meteox.nl/h.aspx?r=&jaar=-3&soort=satradar

Timistry

that line of heavy showers is moving very slowly! yer must be getting hammered there lads! Some heavier rain now in kerry but nothing noteworthy yet

Storm 10

Lots of flooding here in Galway the rain is unreal its non stop since around 6pm with hail during the thunder. Got a friend in Barna who told me a house near him was struck by lightning, dont want that. The wind is getting up now.

howlinwolf

not a drop yet here in calowyet.just as well cause the barrow overflowed a couple of nights ago and its still on the verge of doin it again.looks like we wont be gettin too much of it goin by the rainfall radar

Deep Easterly

Just went for a quick drive around town and flooding is becoming a serious issue. Some roads now submerged. 21mm has fallen since this band of rain started which coupled with the heavy showers earlier now brings my daily total up to 25.1mm so far. Not even the faintest breeze out there so dosen't feel cold at all even though temp is a cool 6.2c currently.

M.T. Cranium

Took a look at the 18z GFS -- I'm scared and I don't even live there.

:eek::eek::eek:

Let's hope that this is the latest in a series of GFS nightmare storms that somehow turn into more ordinary events, but we are knocking on the door of the reliable time frame now.

This model run shows a 948 mb low just west of Tralee at mid-day with an intense gradient over most of Ireland especially the south coast which would surely be looking at hurricane force wind gusts from this outcome, I would say sustained 60 mph gusts to 100 mph from a storm that intense.

Actually, given where Ireland is located, I'm surprised you don't get more storms that intense in climatology, because I am hard pressed to think of one on this track quite as intense. Sure, those kinds of winds hit Belmullet and Malin Head from a more northward track fairly frequently, but those places are built to withstand such winds and the population density is very low in parts of Ireland that routinely see such wind speeds (for good reason).

You tell me if Cork or Waterford has ever seen winds that strong, it has been many years at least. I just have the feeling this will have to change before event time one way or another, seems too intense to be real.

howlinwolf

wow!!! galway has been stuck in that heavy patch of rain for the last few hours,its hardly moved. must be gettin really bad over there

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Took a look at the 18z GFS -- I'm scared and I don't even live there.

:eek::eek::eek:

Sure, those kinds of winds hit Belmullet and Malin Head from a more northward track fairly frequently, but those places are built to withstand such winds and the population density is very low in parts of Ireland that routinely see such wind speeds (for good reason).

Population is low in those parts not because of the weather M.T. Socio-economics and an "to hell or to Connacht" mentality by the current establishment (an establishment that is a direct descendant of the British establishment). But that is for another thread I suppose! :pac:

howlinwolf

m.t. you talk about 18z gfs ? can anyone look up this info and if so where........kinda new sorry

mike65

Connaught is low population cos nothing grows there!

Starting to piss down, the southerly wind is gusty but nothing exceptional.

The Quays in Clonmel are closed yet again, they spent millions on a supposed "fix".

Timistry

3 people have died in a crash in Galway:( please take care out there!!! The conditions sound atrocious! I saw the 18z aswell M.T. If it presists till tomorrow id be getting worried and on thursday..... well id expect severe weather warnings on met.ie and the plywood and hammers being taken out the shed....

Deep Easterly

mike65 wrote: »

Connaught is low population cos nothing grows there!
.

:pac:

Sponge Bob

I reckon the storm will pass south and splatter the English Channel instead just like last weekend . My bones are telling me so and feck model runs

Fighting Irish

How's it looking for Friday, SouthEast, 8am to 5pm??

Thanks

maquiladora

18Z GFS....oh my god....

If that actually came to pass....that would be one of the worst storms here in years...

Min

I prefer snow to storms, storms just kill people, snow less likely to.

Also I have farm buildings and even though they are insured they are very exposed to the west wind....

I hope it turns out to be nothing major.

maquiladora

This was posted on the UK weather forum TheWeatherOutlook tonight:

"GFS 18Z has been released and we can begin to see the very intense - almost armegeddon storm ride the ridge axis in a slightly different way - the 18Z is probably the closest in terms of tracking that I've seen to date. The intensity is off the scale - if this comes off - I'd advise anyone in Ireland to evacuate or if not possible batten down the hatches, board up the windows and under no curcumstances travel. We know we're dealing with a potentially serious storm here and we're just beginning to get a handle on what areas are most likely to be affected and worst affected. Ireland number 1 at the moment - perhaps SW England, Wales - all of W/NW Wales and Scotland."

Min

Timistry wrote: »

3 people have died in a crash in Galway:( please take care out there!!! The conditions sound atrocious! I saw the 18z aswell M.T. If it presists till tomorrow id be getting worried and on thursday..... well id expect severe weather warnings on met.ie and the plywood and hammers being taken out the shed....

4 women killed in the crash now, very bad road conditions as you say.

Lord have mercy on them, just terrible.

maquiladora

If Im not wrong, isnt that touching on sustained Cat 1 hurricane winds? Gusts would be even higher....

Man, I hope we dont see this on the next run.

Timistry

maquiladora wrote: »

If Im not wrong, isnt that touching on sustained Cat 1 hurricane winds? Gusts would be even higher....

Man, I hope we dont see this on the next run.

Those winds are Northeasterly right?

maquiladora

Timistry wrote: »

Those winds are Northeasterly right?

Other way round, southwesterly.

Storm 10

If this comes off and it hits galway with these winds and very high tides at the moment you are looking at serious flooding from the sea

chris2007

there is some serious gusts here at the moment

Timistry

Thought that from another model but the one above confused me:rolleyes:. Im from Kenmare so we have the Caha mts and McGillacuddy Reeks on both sides of the bay. The bay funnes SW winds towards us. While we are protected from the open ocean, this effect can create big waves. Xmas storm 97 was my only big storm. But this would be:eek:

Rougies

Timistry wrote: »

Those winds are Northeasterly right?

maquiladora wrote: »

Other way round, southwesterly.

The first time I saw charts featuring "wind barbs" (the F shaped symbols) I naturally assumed the opposite wind direction too.

Here's a link with a quick and easy explaination of how to read maps with wind barbs.....

http://weather.about.com/od/forecastingtechniques/ss/mapsymbols_8.htm

Tactical

Watching this one with intense interest.

Part of me is hoping that we get the predicted weather but part of me is saying that if even one person suffers even a minor injury then its not worth it. Remember that property can be fixed again but people are a little more tricky to put back together.

If the forecasts do bring about a wind event then I'll seriously need to consider a sheet or two of plywood for a rather large and exposed bay window :eek:

I'll be doing my best to get out with my camera to record any local damage or flooding should it occur.

pauldry

Very sad to hear about the accident. Sympathies with their families.

As for the storm lets not get too alarmist. It may be a storm but broken branches and power cuts of a couple of hours will be all that will bring hopefully and anyways nearly always these storms become much smaller babies closer to the event. The GFS is just a cycle of WCS.

Deep Easterly

Daily rainfall total up to midnight finished at 26.4mm, with 22mm of that falling in the last 5.5 hours. Rain much lighter now. Temp is down to 5.1c which is quite cool for a rainy night!

Storm 10, did you get to record your rainfall totals today? I would say you could have got close to twice as much as I did this evening.

maquiladora

Totally agree, this is only a model run and there is no need to be alarmed right now, but it is an extraordinary run and we should at least be aware that something like this is even possible in a few days time, not in FI.

Ill be staying up to see the 0Z run come in and hopefully it will be a downgrade.

garytuohy

crazy circular rapid burst lightning over howth at the moment??????

maquiladora

The 0Z run is out and worryingly there is no downgrade yet, in fact it looks more intense than before...

M.T. Cranium

It is a sobering set of maps on the GFS run, that's for certain ... but if the other major models are right, the weekend will just be windy, nothing too extreme.

If the GFS is right or close to being right, then a dangerous and damaging storm will develop on Saturday. The gradient indicated in many parts of Ireland exceeds 60 mph sustained and would produce gusts of 80-120 mph, I would think, depending on how exposed any location is to a strong SW wind.

Those are such extreme values for the country as a whole, sure a place like Malin Head might see winds of this strength once or twice a winter, but exposing the whole country to such winds would be potentially a very severe event.

Nobody should panic at any point, of course, but at this stage, I should stress that the storm is only a 50-50 sort of risk at worst; the GFS has been known to over-deepen lows even at this time range, but what's worrying is that the locational difference from the other models (further east) explains the pressure difference (larger energy budget from the warmer Biscay waters).

We're all going to be waiting to see if the models converge on one solution and who was closer to being right at this early stage -- and if by Thursday morning this intensity of storm is still on the maps then it would all change to a very urgent time of preparation -- because these winds could do serious damage and would expose a lot of predictably exposed people and their property to harm. This is where some preparation could take place regardless, as people could easily do an inventory -- look around their locations and property, assess what would happen if trees or small buildings suffered serious damage and fell in a predictable direction (towards the northeast), then what else would get damaged, and how much of that could be prevented (for example, by choosing carefully where to park a car).

Then if the storm does hit, people won't be scurrying around in foul weather trying to secure things at the last minute. Don't want to sound preachy, I'm sure people in some parts of Ireland are more used to strong winds than most people on earth, but I foresee the risk of this storm affecting larger areas including large towns and cities where people aren't as used to dealing with strong winds (and where there are more trees -- it's a truism that extreme storms do a lot of tree damage because they hit areas that support more trees, and trees that have matured without seeing a similar wind event).

All things to consider, and then if this storm fizzles out, people would be ready for some future storm of a similar type (they might not have long to wait either).

And don't overlook the fact that some south coast locations could be seeing rather severe gusts at times on Thursday morning. (possibly SSW g to 70 or 75 mph).

Anyway, if this flops, don't blame us weather "weenies" -- we don't produce these computer model charts, we just try to tell people what they would imply about the weather. I've seen enough deep storms to be quite sure that this one, shown as a 948 mb low at mid-day on Saturday, would be capable of producing extreme gusts and long periods of very strong sustained winds too. A very similar looking low that really happened about 30 years ago in eastern Canada had winds strong enough to blow over large hydro-electric transmission towers. Winds can reach cat-2 hurricane intensity in deep lows of this shape and size.

Betcha now that I've said all this, the 06z GFS will have a weak little low far away from Ireland ... so maybe I should say some more. :cool:

Redsunset

Missing all the fun due to work,just finished and heard on radio on way home that part of tuam road closed.corrib has burst its banks.Cars are submerged underwater too

maquiladora

M.T. have you seen the UKMO chart? http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif
What do you make of it?

force eleven

Met Eireann still hedge their bets,yeaterday the weekend was very windy, now they say gales on Saturday. But stopping short of the word 'stormy'. They'll wait and watch to see of the other model forecasts agree with GFS, as it is out on its own at the moment with this weekends events.

As MT says it is 50-50 at present.

maquiladora

Met Eireann are right not to jump the gun on this, and if it does come to pass, well the forecast for "gales" will be accurate anyway.

Anyway, the 06Z will be rolling out soon. Will be interesting to see if the GFS keeps the intense storm or downgrades/shifts it.