Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

maquiladora

The 0Z GFS doesn't change much for Thursday but it drops Saturdays system further south and weakens it again.

Redsunset

Metoffice are seeing something for saturday at the moment.

this looks fairly stormy to me.

M.T. Cranium

I had the impression the gradient had grown stronger on the 12z run for Thursday, it could turn into one of those deals where we have our eyes on the second storm, then the first moderate event takes over the energy and ramps up in the last few runs.

For the weekend, I noticed the GEM (a lesser light among the various models) shows a stronger wind on Sunday while the GFS has pushed one event into early Saturday for the UK then wants to do a second wave for Ireland on Sunday ... it's all giving me a headache given that we are looking at multiple storms here as well over five days, they are whistling in here about once every 24 hours. Add in the eight hour time difference, my cat trying to chase leaves through a closed window, and some negative feedback from dessert, and ... I'm heading to bed.

DOCARCH

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Add in the eight hour time difference, my cat trying to chase leaves through a closed window, and some negative feedback from dessert, and ... I'm heading to bed.

You need a well deserved rest and having the weight of worldwide weather on your shoulders!

leahyl

On the weather forecast on RTE last night they were showing storm force winds along the south coast! It takes a lot usually for them to say that...woohoo batten down the hatches:D!

chris2007

Southwest winds will occasionally reach gale force today on all Irish coasts and on the Irish Sea. Southwest gales or strong gales will develop this evening and early tonight on coasts from Howth Head to Roches Point to Slyne Head and on the South Irish Sea.
Issued at 04:00 on 17-Nov-2009

maquiladora

Euro model hinting at something this weekend now too....Always more interesting when there is some model consensus.

06Z GFS will be rolling out soon.

alibabba

so will i check the lock on the hatches ?

maquiladora

alibabba wrote: »

so will i check the lock on the hatches ?

It's still a bit early for that yet...

chris2007

Nothing major is gonna happen

maquiladora

chris2007 wrote: »

Nothing major is gonna happen

It's just too early to make such a sweeping statement. Only yesterday one of the models forecasted hurricane force gusts for parts of Ireland on Saturday. That would be major. This is still worth keeping an eye on for the next few days...

weisses

There goes my poly tunnel :eek:

I hope the Dingle area will be spared :P

maquiladora

06Z is rolling out, proves the GFS doesn't really have a handle yet on these projected lows, as the weekend looks quite different on this run than the 0Z run. Not much point going into the details cause the next few runs will probably look totally different again! :P

Iancar29

ok this time im not getting any of my hops up till AT LEAST THURSDAY!!,
last week was really annoying when notin reallly happened.

But ye is there any pretty high tides due for the weekend?

Storm 10

Check out this wind chart from Weatherline UK for Sunday Morning this one looks like a big event.

leahyl

It's REALLY dark in Cork City right now and the rain is lashing down! Come on the wind!!:D

howlinwolf

hi all:)........have to say i feel these possible stoms will be just strong winds with a lot of rain in them(like the last few we,ve had). met eireann have been pretty much on the ball with the last few forecasts ....lots of rain,possible flooding ,strong winds force 8-9.they are going down that same route at the moment unlike some of the internet forecasts which always seem to start out with storm,storm,storm then downgrade as the system gets nearer......i would love to see 1 of these systems turn into something special but i have my doubts at the moment.......here,s hopin:D

Hooter23

Accuweather have 90mph gusts for this Saturday Galway area

maquiladora

Hooter23 wrote: »

Accuweather have 90mph gusts for this Saturday Galway area

Ya have to take that with a pinch of salt though cause it's just a figure that comes from one of the recent computer models runs, there's no human forecaster input into those figures and the model runs can change hugely from day to day when an event is more than 3 days away. The closer it gets to Saturday, the more accurate those figures will be. :pac:

Hooter23

Yes your right but i do hope we get at least 80mph +:D

maquiladora

Well, still a while to go until Saturday but the UK Met Office isn't taking any chances, they've issused 'be aware' weather advisories for rain/wind for pretty much the entire Western half of the UK and NI for Saturday along with some other advisories for the days leading up to that.

maquiladora

Met Éireann outlook mentions "very windy" 3 times, for Wednesday night, Thursday and Saturday.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Iancar29

LOoks like theres gonna be yet again a lot of rain for most of us 2moro.
And the ground mostly saturated its not gonna be good for some parts.JUst look at this satellite image and tat nasty lookin cloud off to the SW!

rc28

Flood warning out - http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp

maquiladora

12Z GFS run is coming out, here is Saturday.....

Wind


Rainfaill


Sea level pressure

M.T. Cranium

Looks ominous on the 12z GFS alright, and meanwhile Thursday not so windy at this point ... could be warning justification by later today.

Redsunset

SKY NEWS WEATHER WARNING


UK Faces Two-Days Of Rain, Floods And Gales


1:34pm UK, Tuesday November 17, 2009
Rob Cole, Sky News Online
Britain looks set to get another battering from the weather this week with forecasters warning of heavy rain, gales and flooding.



The western side of the country is expected to be worst hit by the weather


Western England, Scotland and Ireland can expect a two-day drenching, with continuous rain predicted to fall for almost 48 hours.
The rain will sweep in across Ireland on Tuesday night, spreading to northern England and north Wales by Wednesday morning.
Heavy rain and winds gusting up to 60mph are then expected to sit over Ireland, Wales, western England and southern Scotland on Thursday and Friday.

The Met Office has issued severe weather warnings for the end of the week.
Sky News weather presenter Lisa Burke said there was a risk of local flooding following several days of wet weather



Parts of Wales, the Lake District and southern Scotland are particularly at risk - with up to 100mm of rain forecast to fall.
Some 50mm is expected to fall on lower ground.
"We have got two and a half days of continuous rain in some places on top of land that's already sodden from the weekend and Monday," Lisa said.
"The sheer duration of how long it will be raining will mean there could be local floods in the West."

Despite the wind and rain, Lisa said it would be relatively mild with temperatures not expected to dip below 12C.
The bad weather follows a weekend in which Britain was hit by the biggest storm of the year so far.
Winds of 100mph caused floods along the South coast and damage to homes.

Deep Easterly

UKMO 12z looks rather odd for Saturday:



No sign of any explosive low near our shores but even that chart holds plenty of scope for it to happen in the form of an active wave or 2.

M.T. Cranium

Seems like the GFS is currently the outlier with a stronger storm closer to Ireland than the three most credible alternatives (ECM, UKMO, GEM) which all show a moderately deep low near 20 W moving northeast with varying impacts on Ireland (from glancing blow to almost as strong as GFS).

The GEM has been performing a bit better in recent months and may deserve to be elevated to "top four" status nowadays instead of just having a top three. But what I notice on this GEM output is that the deep surface low is not exactly where I would expect to see it against the 500-mb panels, in fact you might expect a deep low to be closer to the GFS position at 12z Saturday from this consideration.

Given that all models are fairly similar on the three-day evolution to late Friday, it seems to me that a blended solution might be the "best guess" to work with at this stage, factoring in that the GEM surface low could be three or four degrees too far west for the upper support.

That still blends into a very strong weekend storm that would take a path near the M6 buoy towards the Hebrides, the path that is usually associated with storm force winds in Connacht and gales elsewhere in Ireland. If the GFS wins this contest hands down the storm force winds could be more extensive than just Connacht.

There remains the slim prospect of a sudden lurch east like last weekend but with this consensus further west, I have to rate that in the 10% probability range.

Thursday itself will be quite windy too as a wave forms in the constant 30-50 mph southerly flow, and could ramp up speeds in western counties to more like 50-70 at times.

The rainfall potential looks about as mentioned in the alerts to me, but that could tend to be downgraded if it turns out to be more drizzly than expected. There will be lots of moisture in the air, but wringing it all out takes some sort of process like orographic uplift or frontal contrast, otherwise, it just streams overhead in dense layers of stratocumulus and drops most of its load on western Scotland.

Hooter23

The weather in galway has really gone down hill in the last few hours torrential rain and hail thunder also