Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

cian1500ww

mad DIY wrote: »

Meteoalarm gone red for Wales, up to 120mm rainfall predicted. If they get that much, is there a possibility we can get that much ?

How accurate is the meteoalarm anyways ?? They have all of GB and NI in red and Ireland in yellow, how's that even possible Shouldn't Ireland be going red too

maquiladora

cian1500ww wrote: »

How accurate is the meteoalarm anyways ?? They have all of GB and NI in red and Ireland in yellow, how's that even possible Shouldn't Ireland be going red too

I don't think it's updated for Ireland fully yet, certainly not for tomorrow because they have Ireland green - despite the fact that there has been a Met Eireann rain alert for tomorrow since 10am this morning.

Stevek101

Metroalarm works off alerts sent by each Met Office. If you click a country it gives you a regional outlook. You'll see that parts of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are red, this is because the UKMO have issued alerts for those locations. Met Éireann hasn't issued alerts that are as serious as the UKMO's.

Storm 10

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Daily rainfall total up to midnight finished at 26.4mm, with 22mm of that falling in the last 5.5 hours. Rain much lighter now. Temp is down to 5.1c which is quite cool for a rainy night!

Storm 10, did you get to record your rainfall totals today? I would say you could have got close to twice as much as I did this evening.

Sorry Deep Easterly of all the times I took down my rain monitor to clean it out as it was packed with leaves from trees, I did not get a chance to put it back, but I went out in the City at 11pm and the flooding was unreal with sewer covers blown off in several places and out side merlin park hospital it was shooting into the air like a giant fountain.

Some sights that I have never seen before.

spideog7

Would this be the tail in end of Hurricane Ida perchance? Caused alot of flooding along the eastern seaboard over here last weekend, then headed out to the North Atlantic, not sure where it went after that.

Deep Easterly

Conditions are deteriorating rapidly once again here. Rain, which is becoming heavier by degrees now being driven by an increasingly strong breeze. Very dark too and had to turn on lights already! Classic November evening.

squonk

The wind is picking up I notice here in Dublin too. It's just like someone reloaded yesterdays weather and pressed Play!!!

pauldry

bad evening in sligo. the rain gauge is filling up 17.8mm since 730 yesterday but add another 20mm to that at least by thursday id reckon. ill let you know.

wind also lively force 6 to 7

cian1500ww

Big band of rain moving in from the south west I think. Looks very wet

maquiladora

12Z GFS looks like another downgrade for the weekend storm. The system arrives later than on previous runs and isn't as intense.

force eleven

maquiladora wrote: »

12Z GFS looks like another downgrade for the weekend storm. The system arrives later than on previous runs and isn't as intense.

Agreed. GFS is notorious for downgrades like this, and it looks like another one to add to the catalogue. However, still need to see the UKMO and ECMWF later runs to see how things stand...

Deep Easterly

UKMO radar at 4.30pm showing some really heavy falls of rain over west Galway and Clare:


Img Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

Raining cats and dogs here in North Galway. Daily total upping over 15mm once again. Place is absolutely saturated.

Nemesis

My Dad (Worked in weather station in Northern Canada in 60's btw) has put me on red alert and told me to get the sand bags ready.

I live in Avoca Village right beside the river.

I've seen the river levels over 30 years now and seen crazy floods but the only time water came in to the house was with Hurricane Charlie.


200 mm of rain was the figure I read for hurricane Charlie.
Is this the total for 24 hours?.

How much rain is forecasted to fall in next day or two?.

Figures of 120mm and 200mm over in UK is scaring me!

M.T. Cranium

Well, it's good to see that the GFS is backing off a little bit from the extreme storm scenario, and in fact the 12z evolution looks a lot like the lowly GEM which is sticking with its evolution from the past few days.

On the other hand, we need to be aware that this is a "downgrade" from extreme, highly destructive weather, to something more of a garden-variety severe wind gust potential in the 80 mph range; and there is still time for the models to respond to later data and upgrade again. There is a lot of energy in this large-scale trough, and if you look at the map I have attached (bottom of this post) you'll see just how precarious the balance is, as the weekend storm is currently a very weak and harmless looking frontal wave coming out of northeast Canada (it's located near Hudson Strait between Baffin Island and northern Quebec, you'll find it as a 993 mb low with a track history of about 36 hours (the previous positions are at 6 hr intervals).

Now that's not much of a weather system by any standards, but notice how far north in Canada the active storm track has been running; we have been seeing record high temperatures in many parts of North America recently as a result.

There was some talk about how Ida factored into this week's weather; basically, that deep low in the mid-Atlantic Ocean sucked up the remnants of Ida last Monday or so off the east coast of the USA, but realistically, this is not "remnants of Ida" coming in with the heavy rain, it's a separate storm that just happened to get the weakening remnants of Ida in its circulation.

Now, looking at this map and then the various panels of the GEM forecast model, they show the weak low being pulled into the NW'ly flow around the larger storm, developing a stronger circulation and slowly dropping in central pressure, then developing more rapidly around 30 W on Friday, to reach nearly 20 W on Saturday morning.

This was also the GFS scenario but they had the warm fronts of this Atlantic low bombing off the west coast of Ireland on Friday night into a new circulation centre of 948 mbs as recently as the 00z run ... apparently this is being abandoned as too extreme now, but it may return in modified form if the centre near 20 W were to prove stronger and more dynamic in its final stages of approach to the British Isles on Saturday, then we could be looking at an eventual solution almost as strong as the nightmare we were considering yesterday.

As things stand, I would underline that this is not the sort of "downgrade" that should induce complacency; I hope it stays at least this downgraded because there is a range of severe possbilities between this downgraded version and yesterday's extreme version (we knew that couldn't be upgraded, that's for certain).

Here's the map in question (from 12z):

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/analysis/935_100.gif

maquiladora

Thanks for the update M.T. :pac:

Sierra Oscar

Indeed MT, thanks for the updates along with everyone else . . . been following this one closely myself.

RTE have a story up on the possible flooding now.

Further flooding expected tonight

Motorists are being urged to drive with extra care following a weather warning from Met Éireann.

Wet and windy weather is expected tonight and tomorrow with some severe flooding likely.

16mm of rain is expected to fall overnight.

Met Éireann are warning that Munster and Connaught are at a higher risk of flooding.

Southerly winds are expected with gusts up to 110km/h forecast in some exposed places.

There are some delays and cancellations to flights between Dublin Airport and London Heathrow Airport because of strong winds in London.

The ferry service Stena Line has cancelled the Rosslare to Fishguard sailings at 9.15pm and at 9am tomorrow due to the poor weather.

Irish Ferries has cancelled its Swift services but cruise ferries are expected to sail to schedule.

Flooding was experienced overnight in Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Cavan, Leitrim and on the rail route between Dublin and Sligo.

Min

The Christmas eve storm was interesting in that we had Met Eireann in the lead up predict the storm, then downgraded it so when it hit it was a surprise at how strong it was.
I wouldn't rule anything out - from experience.

maquiladora

The rain this evening and tonight is nothing compared to whats forecast for tomorrow, looks like continuous heavy rain for almost everywhere from about 9 in the morning to 9 that night, with the west getting the heaviest downpours. Don't forget there will be gales along with that too.

Gonna be horrible.

gally74

galway is such a mess today, got up early to get to work got in at 7.15, terry brennan's was a mess wnet in through cregmore, mess this eveing getting home 2hrs late!

they are calling it the new orelans down here,

all the same no complaining given the accident last night, apperantly it is the 5th accident at that bend in 13 days, 15 accidnets in the past 2 months,

the council should be held responsible!

mad DIY

maquiladora wrote: »

The rain this evening and tonight is nothing compared to whats forecast for tomorrow, looks like continuous heavy rain for almost everywhere from about 9 in the morning to 9 that night, with the west getting the heaviest downpours. Don't forget there will be gales along with that too.

Gonna be horrible.

So tonight's rain is not the main event, its tomorrow for the deluge ? I thought 16 mm from RTE sounded very tame ! Like as if someone had shouted across a room 'Write a story, there's going to 60mm of rain tonight !' and it was mis heard as 16mm

Trogdor

Nemesis wrote: »

My Dad (Worked in weather station in Northern Canada in 60's btw) has put me on red alert and told me to get the sand bags ready.

I live in Avoca Village right beside the river.

I've seen the river levels over 30 years now and seen crazy floods but the only time water came in to the house was with Hurricane Charlie.


200 mm of rain was the figure I read for hurricane Charlie.
Is this the total for 24 hours?.

How much rain is forecasted to fall in next day or two?.

Figures of 120mm and 200mm over in UK is scaring me!

200mm was the daily figure recorded for Kilcoole during hurricane charlie and 280mm on kippure in the wicklow mountains.

Scotland and the West coasts of Ireland, Northern England and Wales will get the most rain over the next day or two. I'd say 25-30mm may fall around where you are but not nearly as bad as the other areas mentioned. With saturated ground and heavier pulses of rain possible anywhere though flooding is also possible almost anywhere.

M.T. Cranium

Looking at the 18z GFS, this weekend storm is far, far from done, now it seems to want to take a double swing at Ireland, once from the south on Saturday, then from the west on Sunday, and wind potential is still depicted as very strong, possibly gusts to 90 mph or higher.

That small seeding low that I described a while ago is trundling along and maintaining its 994 mb centre on the Labrador coast now.

Those people who are thinking of climbing mountains this weekend will be lucky to be able to open their car doors in the carparks, let alone stand up on the higher slopes. :cool::eek:

DOCARCH

I hope the storm veers to France and blows away a certain Henry, a ref and a couple of linesmen with it!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

paulhac

a f******men to that!

Rougies

DOCARCH wrote: »

I hope the storm veers to France and blows away a certain Henry, a ref and a couple of linesmen with it!

AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

That won't help much will it?

The FIFA headquarters are in Zurich.

pauldry

i cant see this storm being as serious as charts are making out. maybe 50 to 60mph in places. im a sceptic i know.

As for Henry. Ban him from world cup . He even lied to Kilbane. A liar n a cheat:mad:

Duiske

The west is taking another drenching just now. Will be very surprised if we are not hearing about serious flooding on the news tomorrow.

Timistry

Duiske wrote: »

The west is taking another drenching just now. Will be very surprised if we are not hearing about serious flooding on the news tomorrow.

its being raining since 11pm or so. Id say there will be very serious flooding on thursday nite if the rain that is forcast falls. Rivers cant take much more and the ground is saturated. I expect loads of trees during the storm as a result

maquiladora

The 0Z GFS is another downgrade for the weekend storm, weakens the intensity and takes it further south with the strongest winds missing Ireland and hitting the south of England.

maquiladora

Ireland is somewhere under all that....