Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

Deep Easterly

Duiske wrote: »

The west is taking another drenching just now.

Can confirm that Duiske!

16.6mm since midnight alone has brought my November rainfall total to 209.8mm. Now the wettest month since October 2008.

And still the rain falls down...:)

alibabba

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Can confirm that Duiske!

16.6mm since midnight alone has brought my November rainfall total to 209.8mm. Now the wettest month since October 2008.

And still the rain falls down...:)

and down and down

Not sure if my 01 car will take much more of this driving thru rivers every morning. Loughrea, Craughwell, Claregalway all with allot of deep surface water.

maquiladora

The heavy rain will be sitting over Ireland without any breaks until about 9/10pm tonight. There's going to be a lot of flooding, so if youre in an area thats prone to flooding you should really be aware.

Redsunset

yep any rivers that are at this moment in time close to bursting their banks ,may well do so by tonight. As for saturday im seeing only the standard november gales now with heavy rain again. No way near what was showing all week as regards the hurricane wind speeds.could upgrade but i don't feel now it's gonna be all that bad.

ltdslipdiff

alibabba wrote: »

and down and down

Not sure if my 01 car will take much more of this driving thru rivers every morning. Loughrea, Craughwell, Claregalway all with allot of deep surface water.

Time for a cheap jeep eh??

maquiladora

Hard to predict what will happen with the weekend storm, every GFS run for the past day has showed something slightly different happening. 06Z will be rolling out now in a few mins, will be interesting to see if there's another change.

DOCARCH

redsunset wrote: »

As for saturday im seeing only the standard november gales now with heavy rain again. No way near what was showing all week as regards the hurricane wind speeds.could upgrade but i don't feel now it's gonna be all that bad.

Agreed - all the same a very unsettled period of weather. Bring on the snow!

munsterlegend

if you look at MT Cranium's forecast though and also per met eireann website the worst of the windy weather is for sunday and not saturday.
saturday looks likes more heavy rain and windy but not extreme winds.

maquiladora

The 06Z is rolling out and once again the weekend storm looks different on this run, just proving that it's still very unpredictable. The overall intensity of the storm is a bit stronger on this run and the path has shifted further north, it also arrives sooner.

cian1500ww

So are we expecting the brunt of the storm to hit at some stage on Saturday ?

howlinwolf

i feel this storm for saturday is being overhypred again,dont put any trust in the gfs models,they change drasticly each time they are released. im goin with met eireann on this one (they have been pretty much spot on with the last few systems). heavy rain and strong winds f 8-9 at times..... a rerun of today i feel, no worse....i imagine there will be lots of flooding problems in low lying and river areas ......the talk of hurricane winds is nonesense i think though:rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

Just checking out the Met Eireann Ag maps and certainly some notably high rainfall percentages over the country in the last 7 days!


Image source: http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

An average of around 250% of normal rainfall for the period over the country with an astonishing 350%+ over parts of Mayo and Galway! :cool:

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

the talk of hurricane winds is nonesense i think though:rolleyes:

The only 'talk of hurricane winds' was some time ago when a model run showed windspeeds that could bring hurricane force gusts. In a thread discussing a "potential" storm there is nothing 'nonesense' about discussing a model run from the GFS related to that "potential" storm. But that was then, nobody is mentioning anything about that type of storm now because it has been downgraded.

Sierra Oscar

howlinwolf wrote: »

....i imagine there will be lots of flooding problems in low lying and river areas ......

Worst flooding in 20 years already according to the IFA, and with more rain on its way things are going to get worse.

Localised flooding throughout the country

Motorists are being warned to be drive with caution after overnight rain and stormy conditions throughout the country.

Tens of thousands of acres of farmland in the west have been flooded following torrential overnight rain.

The IFA says the situation is probably worse than any other time in the past 20 years.

maquiladora

Rainfall radar really showing how heavy the rain is right now. Hope the driving conditions won't lead to any serious accidents today...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

howlinwolf

met eireann have just said that the rain for saturday will move qiuckly across the country to be followed by showers......hopefuly it wont be as bad as earlier predicted

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

The only 'talk of hurricane winds' was some time ago when a model run showed windspeeds that could bring hurricane force gusts. In a thread discussing a "potential" storm there is nothing 'nonesense' about discussing a model run from the GFS related to that "potential" storm. But that was then, nobody is mentioning anything about that type of storm now because it has been downgraded.

Pretty typical of the GFS to downgrade closer the time. For my region, the GFS has performed terribly over not just over the last week, but continuously since I started model watching.

Even as far out as 8 days ago, but the UKMO and ECMWF latched onto the idea that an exeptional wet spell was approaching. The GFS only just caught on when it became inevitable. The GFS, in my opinion, is a pile of steaming.... :pac:

munsterlegend

looks like aaroadwatch have alerts out for many counties and there is high tide in cork at 6 45 this evening. could be a very bad evening for a lot of people.

pauldry

Gardaí in Galway have warned motorists that they will experience long delays and diversions as a 4km section of the N17 Galway-Tuam road remains flooded, following further heavy overnight rainfall.

The road between Killeen Cross and the Font Roundabout on the north of the city is impassable.

Many minor roads between Oranmore and Loughgeorge are also flooded, as are thousands of acres of farmlands.

Parnell Street in Dublin city centre has been closed to traffic because of falling slates due to high winds.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

looks like aaroadwatch have alerts out for many counties and there is high tide in cork at 6 45 this evening. could be a very bad evening for a lot of people.

Yeah I notice now they have....

"PLEASE POSTPONE ALL JOURNEYS IN CORK, LEITRIM, TIPPERARY, GALWAY AND KERRY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE."

http://www.aaroadwatch.ie/

kerry1960

maquiladora wrote: »

Yeah I notice now they have....

"PLEASE POSTPONE ALL JOURNEYS IN CORK, LEITRIM, TIPPERARY, GALWAY AND KERRY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE."

http://www.aaroadwatch.ie/

Can confirm the Kerry report , some fairly serious flooding around , 2 to 3 feet of water blocking some roads , my rainfall totals since midnight have just floated past the 50mm mark , had a brief dry slot but its raining again now .

ch750536

Have had to drive from Abbeyfeale to Glin twice this morning, the Feale has broken, GAA underwater possibly will get to the indoor sports centre too.

Lots of roads approaching impassable, all open just now though.

Heavy rain commenced again after a brief break.

munsterlegend

one thing i can't understand is why the uk met office have the rain more intense on their radar than met eireann does? or am i wrong in that assertion?

Hooter23

ya ur right i noticed that to i think met eireann radar is right as the rain we have had here is not that heavy as indicated on uk radar or maybe it yet to come

civdef

Some of that heavy rain shown on the UK map appears to be static and radiating from the Limerick area - the Irish met site mentions wireless broadband interference of that nature.

maquiladora

civdef wrote: »

Some of that heavy rain shown on the UK map appears to be static and radiating from the Limerick area - the Irish met site mentions wireless broadband interference of that nature.

Spot on.

200motels

Very bad here in Waterford City. A lot of flooding and extremely strong winds.

maquiladora

Update from AARoadwatch...

PLEASE POSTPONE ALL JOURNEYS IN CORK, GALWAY AND KERRY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. CONDITIONS ARE WORSENING AND HIGH TIDE IS BETWEEN 4-6PM.

cian1500ww

Carrick in Leitrim has been hit pretty hard, no-go area afaik.

Deep Easterly

ch750536 wrote: »

Heavy rain commenced again after a brief break.

Classic signs of waves running up along the main frontal zone. Frontal analysis chart at 12 noon shows one such wave developing of the SW coast:


Image Source: http://www.knmi.nl/

When waves pulse up along the main front it tends to slow down, stall, or even push back the main area west as it passes over. Even here, where the front has passed over and as a result has stopped raining, it remains overcast with pressure falling, if minutely, whereas it would be rising rapidly if the front had passed over in a more standard manner.