Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

kaizersoze

19th November - Bus Transfers between Athenry and Ballinasloe by Corporate Communications


UPDATE 19th November 2009, 17.05hrs

Bus transfers are currently in operation between Athenry and Ballinasloe on the Galway-Dublin line, due to flooding on the line.

This section of the line will remain closed until further notice. This website will be updated as further details become available.

As there are major delays on these bus transfers, due to flooding and significant road congestion in the area, customers are advised to avoid travel unless absolutely necessary.

Iarnród Éireann apologises for the inconvenience caused.

Very bad flooding in the Ballinasloe (river Suck) area.
Particularly bad around the railway station/derrymullen/ashfield drive area. Center of town aroung marina badly affected as well.

roryc1

Still looks like a lot more rain to come http://www.sat24.com/ :eek:

mike65

The wind has eased off down here.

maquiladora

The worst of it is over now for today lads. Tomorrow should be only showery and the wind will have died down. Next event then is due over the weekend, still a good bit of uncertainty about that.

Storm 10

roryc1 wrote: »

Still looks like a lot more rain to come http://www.sat24.com/ :eek:

You are right there looking at that Sat pic, Met Eireann said it was clearing East but that looks very organised rain to me its even showing up on the radar now.

A few minutes ago after the news the Met Office said we are in for very strong winds on Saturday and very stormy conditions on Sunday as an intense Atlantic low swings in very close to Ireland.

Sponge Bob

Galway City is now all but cut off by floods with main roads shut or choked to 1 lane in every direction . Sat Sun Mon and Tues all look like heavy rains days, does anyone fancy as stab at an accumulated total in mms for those 4 days ?

Looks like about 80mm to me

munsterlegend

just looking at the updated radar on met eireann looks like a heavy band of rain off the south west coast. judging by rte's forecast it was as if it would be just the odd passing shower.

roryc1

munsterlegend wrote: »

just looking at the updated radar on met eireann looks like a heavy band of rain off the south west coast. judging by rte's forecast it was as if it would be just the odd passing shower.[/QUOTE

it looks like that band of rain is not moving east as fast as the met office where thinking

roryc1

looking at the uk radar its no where near over http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/

kerry1960

Raining again , now at 60mm here since midnight .

Deep Easterly

That last batch of rain brought no more than a light piddle here. 1.8mm.

Sierra Oscar

How are things looking for Saturday now?

Deep Easterly

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

How are things looking for Saturday now?

Breezy with rain spreading northeastwards during either the late morning or early afternoon:



Followed by cooler conditions with potentially heavy and squally showers.

pauldry

Well my wind measurer is broke just in time for the Sunday storm. Typical. Looks like serious winds in the South but only strong in the north. The Low looks like coming into the Southwest.

Oh 22mm of rain in Sligo in the 24hrs so we missed the worst of it. We get that on a normal Summers day.:pac:

maquiladora

Catch the weather after the 9 News? The forecaster said the low would move "very close to us" and potentially generate "very strong winds" on Sunday.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1119/9news_av.html?2652593,null,230

Rougies

Does anybody know if Met Eireann base their forecasts on the models available to the public (GFS/UKMO/ECMWF etc.) or if they have other data sources available to them?

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Does anybody know if Met Eireann base their forecasts on the models available to the public (GFS/UKMO/ECMWF etc.) or if they have other data sources available to them?

ECMWF is used for anything beyond short term I believe.

Deep Easterly

Rougies wrote: »

Does anybody know if Met Eireann base their forecasts on the models available to the public (GFS/UKMO/ECMWF etc.) or if they have other data sources available to them?

ECMWF primarily, they also consider output from the DWD and UKMO models to various extents.

Rainfall totals from a select number of stations for the 4 day period between 0000hrs Monday the 16th up to 0000hrs Friday 20th:

Valentia: 105.5mm
Claremorris: 103.1mm
Cork Airport: 82.2mm
Mullingar: 67.3mm
Oak Park: 56.8mm
Shannon Airport: 56.4mm
Johnstown Castle: 54.6mm
Belmullet: 53.9mm
Casement: 43.3mm

Doubtlessly there have been much higher totals for the period over many parts of the South and West away from the main Met Eireann synoptic stations.

Data C/O Met Eireann

jd

Don't ME use HIRLAM for short term forecasts?

maquiladora

jd wrote: »

Don't ME use HIRLAM for short term forecasts?

Yes, sometimes you can see the HIRLAM label in the corner of the screen while they are showing a chart. I don't know if they use this exclusively for the short term though, maybe Deep Easterly knows.

Deep Easterly

Just totted up my own totals for the same period referred to above (Mon to Thurs) Which were recorded on a Davis V2 in Ballygaddy, Tuam.

Monday: 21.1mm
Tuesday: 26.4mm
Wednesday: 24.6mm
Thursday: 32.3mm

4 Day Total: 104.4mm

Will check out daily totals for the period on the other side of town later and post them up. Highest rain rate for the period never reached exceptional levels though with the highest being 27.7mm/ph recorded yesterday afternoon. It was more the persistence, rather than the intensity of rain, that was the marked feature of this event here in North Galway.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Yes, sometimes you can see the HIRLAM label in the corner of the screen while they are showing a chart. I don't know if they use this exclusively for the short term though, maybe Deep Easterly knows.

Maybe, maybe not.

Information on how forecasts are put together by Met Eireann forecasters here.

force eleven

06Z GFS rolling out now, shows the peak of the storm to be around teatime Sunday. Low pressure slightly closer to the north coast then previously, central pressure around 966mb. Classic wintertime depression, that will cuase gale to storm force winds on west and north coasts and 70mph+ gusts inland particularly the further north and west you are. I don't think this is an exceptional event, we should expect 2 or 3 of these each winter/autumn anyhow,just a matter of watching to see if there are any unexpected developments over the coming 24 hours or so.

I think the rain that is coming will be more of the talking point given how saturated everywhere is, more misery and inconvenience look likely over the next week or so.:(

pauldry

It will become extremely windy or even stormy overnight Sunday night, with gale force westerly winds giving some severe gusts in exposed places.

this is what met eireann are saying about 22nd nov

maquiladora

force eleven wrote: »

06Z GFS rolling out now, shows the peak of the storm to be around teatime Sunday. Low pressure slightly closer to the north coast then previously, central pressure around 966mb. Classic wintertime depression, that will cuase gale to storm force winds on west and north coasts and 70mph+ gusts inland particularly the further north and west you are. I don't think this is an exceptional event, we should expect 2 or 3 of these each winter/autumn anyhow,just a matter of watching to see if there are any unexpected developments over the coming 24 hours or so.

I think the rain that is coming will be more of the talking point given how saturated everywhere is, more misery and inconvenience look likely over the next week or so.:(

Agreed, not a huge difference between the 06z and 0z runs, slight shift in track again, and there will probably be more wobbles before it arrives...its those wobbles that will determine which parts of the country get the strongest winds. Thankfully doesn't look anything like that beast the GFS was showing a couple of days ago.

M.T. Cranium

The 06z GFS solution looked a touch stronger to me, I think the track was perhaps 50 miles closer to Malin Head than the 00z, and what's worth noting too is that the central pressure is actually rising slowly as the strong winds approach -- so if there were to be a last-minute recognition of a deeper centre there is room to increase that gradient by 10-15 knots.

The current maps give the appearance of 70 knot gusts at times with the Saturday preliminary wave and 80 knot gusts with the main action on Sunday. Those would be for very exposed locations so factor in that most people would be seeing gusts to 50 or 60 knots where they live. These would be just into the minimal damage zone.

I agree that any more rain would be the main problem now, and there is potential for total rainfalls of 30 mms out of the two parts of the storm, although it's going to be showery on Sunday in particular. Hopefully some of the high water will go down today in the relatively dry conditions.

That storm on Tuesday also looks fairly strong.

maquiladora

Thanks again M.T., I have a quick question, I noticed on another forum someone mentioning that "a feature well worth watching is a secondary wave that could form on the underbelly of the main filling low" - what is your take on that?

burger1979

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

That storm on Tuesday also looks fairly strong.

any charts for this? infact where do you guys get weather charts off the web to see the incoming weather, would be interested in watching these as the weather over the weekend comes along. thanks.

maquiladora

burger1979 wrote: »

any charts for this? infact where do you guys get weather charts off the web to see the incoming weather, would be interested in watching these as the weather over the weekend comes along. thanks.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

or

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

Hooter23

Although the strong winds we get this weekend will not be as extreme as early forecast we still have to remember all the rain we have got over the past few weeks and it will probably not take much to bring down trees as the ground is so wet