Potential Storms Thursday and This Weekend -19 & 21/22 November

maquiladora

RTE are posting live updates on the current flooding here :

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1120/floods.html

munsterlegend

Warning from met eireann website:

Issued at 20 November 2009 - 12:33

WEEKEND WEATHER ADVISORY


A spell of heavy rain will move northwards across the country late Friday night and Saturday morning, with clearer weather following. Although it will be short-lived -typically 3 or 4 hours - it will be intense enough to produce around 15 - 25 mm of rain in places, with south Munster and south Leinster most at risk.
Another area of rain and showers will affect many areas on Saturday night or Sunday, and could give as much as 15 - 25 mm, with the western half of the country most at risk at that stage.
These amounts are not exceptional in themselves, but in the current context they are of some concern, as they are likely to hinder or delay recovery from recent flooding and might even worsen conditions again at times.
It will be windy too for much or all of the weekend, and on Saturday night or Sunday there is a danger of severe winds (gusts 90 - 120 km/h in exposed areas).

maquiladora

Sounds like a rough weekend, and there doesn't look like there's going to be much of a let up, more wind/rain possible in the middle of next week.

Deep Easterly

Image Source: http://www.met.ie/latest/agricultural.asp

:pac:

JanuarySnowstor

I Honestly think the Irish Met are under estimating the wkd.
I mean that type of low pressure out in the atlantic will drive huge tidal swells towards the coast.
I reckon we've seen nothing yet!

maquiladora

Well you can view predicted tidal swell here...

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=swell&starttime=1258675200

Redsunset

maquiladora wrote: »

Well you can view predicted tidal swell here...

http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=swell&starttime=1258675200

well looking at that,Galway,Clare,limerick,kerry and cork are to expect 40 ft tidal swells come sun afternoon.Not good at all if it pans out that way from the high winds.

Redsunset

Flood images,

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1120/flooding_gallery.html

JanuarySnowstor

12z has Saturdays low closer and deeper to our shores.
Beginning to look like a major news story this wkd
Esp after the last 24hours of flooding

Timistry

Some great photo! Cork looks really bad. The mercy hospital must be wrecked inside

maquiladora

12Z GFS is rolling out and the track is a bit further south on this run, showing slightly stronger winds for the southwest, south, east coasts & the Irish Sea. OF course further changes are expected until it actually arrives...

Timistry

How much rain is expected from this? Met eireann are saying 15-25mm. Seems like a conservative estimate to me

maquiladora

Timistry wrote: »

How much rain is expected from this? Met eireann are saying 15-25mm. Seems like a conservative estimate to me

There will be heavy rain early Saturday but it should clear in the afternoon so it's not going to be like Thursday when it was raining almost constantly all day. Sunday then will be wet but it will be more of a wind event.

JanuarySnowstor

Thundery showers, which are very likely, can do a lot more damage than persistent lightish rain
I reckon further severe flooding esp for the South & West

force eleven

The GFS weather model for 12z now shows the low pressure storm centre right over Ulster on Sunday evening. That's about 100 miles further south than it showed on the last run,which is a big difference really. It shows that, at least with this forecast model, a lot of uncertainty. If the latest run pans out, the strongest winds would be pushed further south, so Munster and Leinster would see gale or strong gale winds inland at times in squalls.
I bet it will change again next run....

stooge

i know the winds could be dangerous but more rain could be devastating.

Found a webcam for the Lake Hotel in Killarney which has been evacuated. 4ft rise in Lough Leane water level overnight :eek:

http://www.lakehotel.com/webcam.htm

the picture at the top of the page shows how just much its went up :eek:

Timistry

Wow! That is some rise. then again, 100mm + rain will do that:p. The lakes have a huge catchement area encompassing the national park over thousands of acres. And the steepness of the surrounding slopes makes the rivers very flashy. At least there are now houses nearby

Redsunset

:eek: very impressive water levels.

thank god im a few mile from the barrow river.

JanuarySnowstor

ukmo 12z looks severe for the south

ch750536

Sunday @ 3pm

Rougies

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

ukmo 12z looks severe for the south

Where are you viewing the 12z UKMO? Netweather and Wetterzentrale are still showing the 00z.

Deep Easterly

Hi-Resolution wind forecaster for Ireland:

http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/superforecast_uk_ireland_animation.htm

Worth keeping an eye on over the next 36hrs as this unpredictable system bears down over our wee Isle.

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Where are you viewing the 12z UKMO? Netweather and Wetterzentrale are still showing the 00z.

12Z UKMO :

http://i50.tinypic.com/2ltlvko.gif

Redsunset

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Hi-Resolution wind forecaster for Ireland:

http://www.windfinder.com/forecasts/superforecast_uk_ireland_animation.htm

Worth keeping an eye on over the next 36hrs as this unpredictable system bears down over our wee Isle.

Cheers for the link,tis now bookmarked.

Looking fairly strong,especially as the winds are measured in knots

maquiladora

It will be interesting to see on the 18Z if the track gets shifted further south again, if that trend were to continue the storm could slip under us completely by the time Sunday comes round.

M.T. Cranium

I've upgraded my forecast wind speeds for Sunday after seeing the 12z GFS track and comparing it with the UKMO and the GEM (both about the same track). Yes, this could lead to a last-minute reprieve with the low diving south further ... we've seen that a few times in the past. Then it would be France's problem and I know that is not going to cause a lot of upset here.

However, I don't see an overall pattern in which this southward shift is highly likely. I'd be less surprised if the track shifted back north and relaxed the gradient a bit.

On the current track, keep in mind, the central pressure is not extremely low (it starts to rise slowly into the 960s), so unfortunately there is theoretically room for further upgrades of intensity.

The Saturday morning first wave will develop very rapidly after midnight and lash the south coast in particular around 0600-0900, then a strong front will rotate north so that various scattered locations throughout central Ireland could see a stormy few minutes or hour or so, as this feature passes. Looks like a sort of temporary lull to follow and then a ramping up of SW winds overnight to Sunday morning's big blow. And that could last most of the day. Some prodigious waves are likely on the west coast. The fetch of this storm has been considerable. I notice the storm for Tuesday is slipping through northeast Canada on exactly the same track as this one did.

Redsunset

As regards the flooding,my sympathies to all those caught.

Horrible thing to happen to anyones home anytime,even harder to take coming up to christmas.

And no real end to wet windy weather in sight.

mad DIY

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I've upgraded my forecast wind speeds for Sunday after seeing the 12z GFS track and comparing it with the UKMO and the GEM (both about the same track). Yes, this could lead to a last-minute reprieve with the low diving south further ... we've seen that a few times in the past. Then it would be France's problem and I know that is not going to cause a lot of upset here.

However, I don't see an overall pattern in which this southward shift is highly likely. I'd be less surprised if the track shifted back north and relaxed the gradient a bit.

On the current track, keep in mind, the central pressure is not extremely low (it starts to rise slowly into the 960s), so unfortunately there is theoretically room for further upgrades of intensity.

The Saturday morning first wave will develop very rapidly after midnight and lash the south coast in particular around 0600-0900, then a strong front will rotate north so that various scattered locations throughout central Ireland could see a stormy few minutes or hour or so, as this feature passes. Looks like a sort of temporary lull to follow and then a ramping up of SW winds overnight to Sunday morning's big blow. And that could last most of the day. Some prodigious waves are likely on the west coast. The fetch of this storm has been considerable. I notice the storm for Tuesday is slipping through northeast Canada on exactly the same track as this one did.

A palmed deflection from the hand of God into the French 'goal'. Natural justice:D

DOCARCH

mad DIY wrote: »

A palmed deflection from the hand of God into the French 'goal'. Natural justice:D

Sorry - this is totally irrelevant but just before reading this post I was looking at this.

http://irelandfrance.blogspot.com/

Click your mouse and see what happens.

maquiladora

Gerry Murphy just mentioned the danger of costal flooding Saturday & Sunday in addition to more inland flooding from more rain.