Will Fianna Fail win the next election?

kev9100

I have a horrible feeling they will. What does it take for this country to NOT to vote for ff????????

Tipsy Mac

Doubtful as the economy won't recover for atleast another 5 years.

DeVore

*what*???




<edit> sorry, I should add something to this thread other then my completely confusion and disbelief.</edit>

What it will take is for some, any, form of credible opposition.


DeV.

Dirk Gently

Personally I was delighted to see FF win the last election as anyone with half a brain could see the property crash coming and I know had the other lot been elected that people would blame them and it would mean FF escaping blame. I was glad labour and FG weren't elected as they would be getting buried now never to be elected for another generation if they were in power.

As for next time, it depends how quickly they can turn the economy around. If we are in a period of growth (even small) don't be surprised to see people vote for them again as a pat on the back for a job well done getting us out of the recession. FF want to hit us as hard as they can as fast as they can to allow for growth come next election. That's what they're doing and people will vote for them again. I would still be (mildly) surprised if they were re-elected but it wont be a walk in for FG + LAB.

We get the government we deserve and the Irish people deserve FF tbh.

Zynks

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice.... yes, they will probably win again.

As for adding something meaningful, it takes almost 4,000 TV license payments just to cover Mr. Kenny's wages, down from almost 6,000.

Pride Fighter

They have not won an election since the 70's. But people keep giving them a large enough mandate to only add a couple of seats to theirs to form a coalition. I'd be surprised if FF get over 60 seats next time out.

Dannyboy83

If they can find a scapegoat for the banks before the next GE, then I'd say they have a chance.

Liam Byrne

When I saw the thread title I thought for a minute that I had accidentally clicked the "Humour" link!

Unfortunately we can never say never, but I would seriously doubt it.

And if they do, I'll be emigrating and turning my back on this backward little country forever......there must be some country somewhere that holds politicians accountable!

irish_bob

clown bag wrote: »

Personally I was delighted to see FF win the last election as anyone with half a brain could see the property crash coming and I know had the other lot been elected that people would blame them and it would mean FF escaping blame. I was glad labour and FG weren't elected as they would be getting buried now never to be elected for another generation if they were in power.

As for next time, it depends how quickly they can turn the economy around. If we are in a period of growth (even small) don't be surprised to see people vote for them again as a pat on the back for a job well done getting us out of the recession. FF want to hit us as hard as they can as fast as they can to allow for growth come next election. That's what they're doing and people will vote for them again. I would still be (mildly) surprised if they were re-elected but it wont be a walk in for FG + LAB.

We get the government we deserve and the Irish people deserve FF tbh.

if fianna fail wanted to hit us as hard as they can as fast as they cant , they wouldnt be talking about a measley 5% cut in public sector pay or the same cut in wellfare , they are doing as little as possible and hoping for some sort of international upturn which will rub off on us

if they were hitting us hard , we would be seeing 25% public sector pay cuts and the same from social wellfare

Dirk Gently

as hard as they can while still hanging on to power. As docile as the Irish people are you can still only push so far and remain in power or in a position to be re-elected.

brianthebard

Last time round a key campaign point was to blame the PD's for everything that had gone wrong. Now they are gone, but I can easily see FF'ers canvassing door to door, telling people it was the greens that caused the problem. The new programme for govt in particular could be used as an example of this.

kenco

Not a chance but on the other hand they wont be destroyed either.

Even if Enda made a dogs dinner of it FG will still win seats from FF. How well Lab do is the interesting bit. Im still a bit of a sceptic around the FG and Lab having enough seats together to form the next goverment. Might well be like the election that led to FF and Labour forming one of the best governments we have had (imo).

FF thought at the time that 67 seats was as low as they could go and I reckon it might be low 60's which could leave FG on 60 as well with Lab maybe high 20s (they done run enough candidates to win more). FG/Lab with 89/90 seats is a healthy majority but lets see them try to put together let alone implement a program for government.

In summary FF might win the next election (have most seats) but I can see how they will form the next government...

Sizzler

No.

[/THREAD]

Seriously, the overhaul required to curry the required favour of the electorate is a chasm of what they are capable of achieving.

Theres also a certain % of the population that will still vote for FF even if Cowen came around to their house and shyte in their bed :rolleyes:

KindOfIrish

kev9100 wrote: »

I have a horrible feeling they will. What does it take for this country to NOT to vote for ff????????

I had a horrible feeling then people voted for FF last election. Who will win the next time, doesn't really matter (if you are not a particular party supporter).

Soldie

No other party seems to offer a viable alternative to Fianna Fáil's spendthrift policies. The three main parties are just different shades of gray, with Labour and Fine Gael perhaps one nanometre left and right of Fianna Fáil respectively. My prediction for the next general election is that Labour will underperform because they're reluctant to challenge the unions, Fine Gael will get voted into power because they're Fianna Fáil in all but name, and Fianna Fáil will peform beyond most people's expectations.

Het-Field

It could never be ruled out. In Dublin and Cork they will get pasted. Places like Limerick, Galway, Waterford, and Sligo may see a cull with only the most prominant surviving. Counties like Offaly, Longford, and Cavan (3 counties where their vote increased in 2009) cannot be relied on.

The economy will reamin going south for some time. However, that doesnt guarantee the end of Fianna Fail. It is also possible that Labour could go in with them if the maths would suggest that they could screw FF for everal cabinet positions. Thus FF would lose seats, but remain in Government.

It is fairly clear that 25% will go to FF, and it could hit above 30% on a good day. It may seem funny, but Iris political reality dictates that FF could still win the next election.

Rebelheart

Zynks wrote: »

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice..

Never will that line sound the same since Dubya got his mind (totally) around it!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eKgPY1adc0A

kev9100

Liam Byrne wrote: »

When I saw the thread title I thought for a minute that I had accidentally clicked the "Humour" link!

Unfortunately we can never say never, but I would seriously doubt it.

And if they do, I'll be emigrating and turning my back on this backward little country forever......there must be some country somewhere that holds politicians accountable!

In any other country i agree FF could never win re-election but the fact remains that FF have won the most seats in every election since 1932!
Remember, we are the country that had a Minister for Finance who did not have a bank account!!

IRISHSPORTSGUY

If they get in again IRISHSPORTSGUY will become EXPATSPORTSGUY. :mad:

baalthor

This time last year they looked like rabbits on the M50.

Now, they look like they sort of know what they're doing (by their own lights) while the opposition haven't landed any blows at all.

Most of the effective opposition to/criticism of the government since last year has come from:

OAPs
George Lee (while at RTE)
Declan Ganley
Shane Ross (about FAS / Bankers)
Economists (e.g. McWilliams, the "Academic Economists")

Don't think OAPs will be able to produce a big protest this time while many of the others have been bought off or nullified.

Meanwhile things have improved for the Govt. in that:

• Lisbon passed
• PFG agreed with Greens
• Greens rock-solid
• "Dissent" from FF TDs has disappeared - most of it was stage-managed anyway in my opinion
• NAMA passed - Enda Kenny helped out here by making a hames of the explanation of the FG alternative
• Public Sector Unions managing to make themseleves even more unpopular than the government
• Calamity Coughlan now mostly seen and not heard
• George Lee gone from RTE and swallowed whole by FG
• Things don't appear to be getting any worse e.g unemployment
• Cowen no longer such a grumpy ****er
• Perception among the public that FG/Labour don't really want an election at the moment
• Multiple oppositon parties with conflicting and unconvincing policies

So IF the government can get the budget through AND there's some kind of recovery next year,then unbelievable as it seems, well you never can tell ...

On the other hand a few months ago, unhappy farmers (are there any other kind?:D) threatened to blockade supermarket food distribution centres unless they get better prices.
Something like that, coupled with a "less than enthusiastic" policing response from the Gardai/Army and maybe all out PS strikes would spell the end. (of the Govt. if not the country)

FlutterinBantam

brianthebard wrote: »

Last time round a key campaign point was to blame the PD's for everything that had gone wrong. Now they are gone, but I can easily see FF'ers canvassing door to door, telling people it was the greens that caused the problem. The new programme for govt in particular could be used as an example of this.

Indeed, however God help us all if Gilmore and his ilk get in as up to now he has steadfastly refused to even look at a cut in PS wages.
You have people like Michael D. feasting high on the hog and pretending to be a bastion of the working man.

Duddnt fool this cahuna;)

Happy Monday

If Cowen can manage to take on the public sector and bring credibility and strength back to his government which is on the cards, then begin to steady the ship forward by the time the FF electoral machine gets going again people will sit up and take notice of them.

kev9100

Happy Monday wrote: »

If Cowen can manage to take on the public sector and bring credibility and strength back to his government which is on the cards, then begin to steady the ship forward by the time the FF electoral machine gets going again people will sit up and take notice of them.

if that happens, the irish people have the shortest memory known to man

Het-Field

baalthor wrote: »

This time last year they looked like rabbits on the M50.

Now, they look like they sort of know what they're doing (by their own lights) while the opposition haven't landed any blows at all.

Most of the effective opposition to/criticism of the government since last year has come from:

OAPs
George Lee (while at RTE)
Declan Ganley
Shane Ross (about FAS / Bankers)
Economists (e.g. McWilliams, the "Academic Economists")

Don't think OAPs will be able to produce a big protest this time while many of the others have been bought off or nullified.

Meanwhile things have improved for the Govt. in that:

• Lisbon passed
• PFG agreed with Greens
• Greens rock-solid
• "Dissent" from FF TDs has disappeared - most of it was stage-managed anyway in my opinion
• NAMA passed - Enda Kenny helped out here by making a hames of the explanation of the FG alternative
• Public Sector Unions managing to make themseleves even more unpopular than the government
• Calamity Coughlan now mostly seen and not heard
• George Lee gone from RTE and swallowed whole by FG
• Things don't appear to be getting any worse e.g unemployment
• Cowen no longer such a grumpy ****er
• Perception among the public that FG/Labour don't really want an election at the moment
• Multiple oppositon parties with conflicting and unconvincing policies

So IF the government can get the budget through AND there's some kind of recovery next year,then unbelievable as it seems, well you never can tell ...

On the other hand a few months ago, unhappy farmers (are there any other kind?:D) threatened to blockade supermarket food distribution centres unless they get better prices.
Something like that, coupled with a "less than enthusiastic" policing response from the Gardai/Army and maybe all out PS strikes would spell the end. (of the Govt. if not the country)

Green solidity in government is moot. The got just under 2% in the local elections, they cannot afford to force a general election, otherwise they face obliteration. The new pfg is a farce, and was window dressing. The vast majority of greens are dissatisfied. However, their cynical side has shone through as they validated a sham in October. The sham has been highlighted by FF decisions to nullfify the bank levy into a wateredown surcharge.

Lisbon was passed from day one. Contrary to the newbies in Ireland for Europe, Gen yes etc, those who campaigned in 2008 saw that it was a done deal from day one. The people were no longer feeling bolshey, and validated a good deal. The Government cannot take credit for something that civic societies, and the average punters achieved. Furthermore, once it was passed it was out of the news, and the government got little or no bounce from it.

Cowen cannot be seen as a "grumpy f**ker" as he hardly appears. He only appears in the easiest of forums, with the most partisan of audiences. The man has done nothing of relevance.

NAMA's passage. What a joke. Of course it would pass. They have the majority.

I agree with you on the Unions. However, most of your argument are based on the "failings" of the opposition as opposed to any skill or ability of the government

Unemployment only appears to be getting "better" due to FAS and aerplanes to Australia, and Canada.. It was forcast that it would hit 15%, it will sit at 14.5%. It is appalling to suggest that it could be any worse.

Our national debt continues to spiral out of control, Mr Trichet is about to raise interest rates, we continue to drop like a stone in terms of competitiveness, and next year shall be worse. The Government is not performing competently, and has not raised above the useless platitutdes which they spout. Its appalling that you seem to condemn the critics, some of whom predicted the heavy crash. "The Pope's Children" should be compulsive viewing. It highlights what FF have done to the country.

yoshytoshy

They always bought people ,thats why we're in the sh1t and thats why they can't get us out of the ****.

Bottle_of_Smoke

I don't think so.

I gave them a preference last time because I didn't want fine gael in. This time I'll vote fine gael to get them out.

I reckon theres plenty more like me.

There will be die hard anti- fine gaelers but I reckon their numbers have shrunk significantly

dresden8

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

If they can find a scapegoat for the banks before the next GE, then I'd say they have a chance.

The public sector are the scapegoat. Have you not been reading boards.ie?

Beardies, parasites, scum, ps unions destroyed the country, internment etc.

crocro

paddy power giving 9/2 on a FF/Lab govt so not so unlikely.

The only definite seems to be that labour will be in the next government.

brianthebard

dresden8 wrote: »

The public sector are the scapegoat. Have you not been reading boards.ie?

Beardies, parasites, scum, ps unions destroyed the country, internment etc.

One could easily see the Union scapegoating (the same unions the govt were happy to be in partnership with a year or two ago) as an indirect attack on Labour. Get the dig in early!

Taxipete29

crocro wrote: »

paddy power giving 9/2 on a FF/Lab govt so not so unlikely.

The only definite seems to be that labour will be in the next government.

If Enda was to step aside in FG I wouldnt rule out an overall FG majority. Enda is holding them back me thinks.

baalthor

Het-Field wrote: »

I agree with you on the Unions. However, most of your argument are based on the "failings" of the opposition as opposed to any skill or ability of the government

Well, that is my central point but I was just emphasising how from the government's perspective, things are better for them politically now than this time last year.

Het-Field wrote: »

Our national debt continues to spiral out of control, Mr Trichet is about to raise interest rates, we continue to drop like a stone in terms of competitiveness, and next year shall be worse. The Government is not performing competently, and has not raised above the useless platitutdes which they spout. Its appalling that you seem to condemn the critics, some of whom predicted the heavy crash. "The Pope's Children" should be compulsive viewing. It highlights what FF have done to the country.

You've misinterpreted what I posted - I said they were part of the main effective opposition to the government. I agree with most of the "academic economists" - (I put it in quotes because that's how the govt. influenced media sources referred to them)


My point is that a significant chunk of the populace votes on how positive they feel about their own economic prospects. If they believe that voting for FF will help or improve their economic situation and the opposition can't convince them that they have a better plan, then they will vote for FF.

This is how FF stayed in power during the Celtic Tiger.

Like you I think there's a good chance that things could get a lot worse and that FF will do badly in the next election.
I fervently hope that they don't get back into government for a long, long time but I'd feel a lot better if there was an opposition party with a level-headed realistic recovery plan and a big lead in the polls.

However the opposition parties suffer from the same populist tendencies as FF and have their own sectional interests to look after.

Labour, for example are beholden to Public Sector unions

Fine Gael, well a lot of their voters and members are also part of the PS (e.g. Enda - former teacher, James Reilly - former head of Doctor's Union) and they're not know as the Farmer's party for nothing.

So I could easily see a repeat of the 1980s (which I grew up through).
FF screw up economy - FG/Lab get elected - try to agree on difficult decisions - fall apart, country lurches between Governments until eventually the decisions get made or the IMF/EU takes over.

I mean in the 80s Labour pulled out because John Bruton tried to put VAT on children's shoes, this put him up there with King Herod in some people's estimation.
The Fitzgerald/Spring government of the 80's was deeply unpopular even though it contained people like Garret, Alan Dukes and Dick Spring.
Where are their equivalents today?