Will Fianna Fail win the next election?

Pride Fighter

kenco wrote: »

Not a chance but on the other hand they wont be destroyed either.

Even if Enda made a dogs dinner of it FG will still win seats from FF. How well Lab do is the interesting bit. Im still a bit of a sceptic around the FG and Lab having enough seats together to form the next goverment. Might well be like the election that led to FF and Labour forming one of the best governments we have had (imo).

FF thought at the time that 67 seats was as low as they could go and I reckon it might be low 60's which could leave FG on 60 as well with Lab maybe high 20s (they done run enough candidates to win more). FG/Lab with 89/90 seats is a healthy majority but lets see them try to put together let alone implement a program for government.

In summary FF might win the next election (have most seats) but I can see how they will form the next government...

There is no way Labour will get high 20's. At worst they will equal the Spring tide of 33 seats. At best they will get close to 50. Somewhere in the middle is most likely, 37-41 seats.

yoshytoshy

Taxipete29 wrote: »

If Enda was to step aside in FG I wouldnt rule out an overall FG majority. Enda is holding them back me thinks.

A lot of people think this ,we need politicians with some conviction in them to get things done.
The current bunch ,look like a load of fair city extras ,hanging around.

bijapos

FFwon't win it but they will do OK, 55 seats minimum, probably wellinto the 60's. Gilmore has already said he will not go in with FF so unless he wants to lose all credibility he won't.

FF will not get annihilated, see their local election results for proof of this. They got 220 or so, down from 300, if you include FFers who ran as independents then its nearer to 240-250. If people wanted them out they would have been utterly decimated, down to 80-120 seats, but it proves that there is still a substantial number of people out there - 25% at least - who will vote them whatever. The others are floating voters who vote for what they percieve they will gain short term. The economy should be on a slow bounce back at this stage and this will ensure they will not be annihilated.

Always said the biggest party in this state always was and always will be the "Me Feiners". So long as this exists we wont really move away from FG-FF.

hallelujajordan

The fact that we are having this conversation now and that there are some on here who believe that FF can be in the next government show that the tide is turning back. 6 months ago you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who would argue that FF would form the next government (including me, and I'm a FF member)

As Baalthor said :

Baalthor wrote:

Meanwhile things have improved for the Govt. in that:

• Lisbon passed
• PFG agreed with Greens
• Greens rock-solid
• "Dissent" from FF TDs has disappeared - most of it was stage-managed anyway in my opinion
• NAMA passed - Enda Kenny helped out here by making a hames of the explanation of the FG alternative
• Public Sector Unions managing to make themseleves even more unpopular than the government
• Calamity Coughlan now mostly seen and not heard
• George Lee gone from RTE and swallowed whole by FG
• Things don't appear to be getting any worse e.g unemployment
• Cowen no longer such a grumpy ****er
• Perception among the public that FG/Labour don't really want an election at the moment
• Multiple oppositon parties with conflicting and unconvincing policies

Labour will lose ground imo due to their close links with the unions who really don't have the support of the wider electorate for the strategy they are progressing. .

A modest budget, followed by a reduction in the unemployment figures (already beginning to happen), followed by a return to low level economic growth (predicted for next year) and you could well see the electorate move back to FF . .

irish_bob

hallelujajordan wrote: »

The fact that we are having this conversation now and that there are some on here who believe that FF can be in the next government show that the tide is turning back. 6 months ago you would be hard-pressed to find anyone who would argue that FF would form the next government (including me, and I'm a FF member)

As Baalthor said :



Labour will lose ground imo due to their close links with the unions who really don't have the support of the wider electorate for the strategy they are progressing. .

A modest budget, followed by a reduction in the unemployment figures (already beginning to happen), followed by a return to low level economic growth (predicted for next year) and you could well see the electorate move back to FF . .

i believe the opposite is the case , labour will see big gains because of thier pandering to the public sector , thier has been a big swing of ps voters from fianna fail to labour already , the ps vote is huge in this country when you add on the relatives of each worker , i dont blame labour for going for the ps vote , they are thier base afterall , the same cannot be said for fine gael who have are still on the fence afraid to offend anyone , includiing the public sector , fine gael need to go all out for the private sector and unemployed former private sector vote , they need to declare war on the unions , they also need to attack labour as a tax and spend party who are not the solution to the countrys ills but 1st , kenny must be replaced , he is a ham and is kryptonite to the swing vote , remember , the swing vote who won it for fianna fail in 2007 is now for the most part unemployed and on the scrap heap , they are wandering the land desperetly looking for a voice , fine gael will clean up at the next election if they just have the guts

brianthebard

irish_bob wrote: »

kenny must be replaced , he is a ham and is kryptonite to the swing vote , remember , the swing vote who won it for fianna fail in 2007 is now for the most part unemployed and on the scrap heap , they are wandering the land desperetly looking for a voice , fine gael will clean up at the next election if they just have the guts

I'm sorry but FG went up 20 seats in the last election with Kenny at the helm and he is the only party leader still there after that election, these are both important points and I do not understand how people can wilfully ignore this? The party is by all accounts happy with him as leader and that in itself will inspire confidence in the party.

Taxipete29

irish_bob wrote: »

i believe the opposite is the case , labour will see big gains because of thier pandering to the public sector , thier has been a big swing of ps voters from fianna fail to labour already , the ps vote is huge in this country when you add on the relatives of each worker , i dont blame labour for going for the ps vote , they are thier base afterall , the same cannot be said for fine gael who have are still on the fence afraid to offend anyone , includiing the public sector , fine gael need to go all out for the private sector and unemployed former private sector vote , they need to declare war on the unions , they also need to attack labour as a tax and spend party who are not the solution to the countrys ills but 1st , kenny must be replaced , he is a ham and is kryptonite to the swing vote , remember , the swing vote who won it for fianna fail in 2007 is now for the most part unemployed and on the scrap heap , they are wandering the land desperetly looking for a voice , fine gael will clean up at the next election if they just have the guts

The problem with this strategy is that its all or bust. If they attack Labour as you suggest, how do they co-exist if they dont gain an overall majority??
They would have to compromise on so many areas they would be removed at the next election.

jmayo

irish_bob wrote: »

if fianna fail wanted to hit us as hard as they can as fast as they cant , they wouldnt be talking about a measley 5% cut in public sector pay or the same cut in wellfare , they are doing as little as possible and hoping for some sort of international upturn which will rub off on us

if they were hitting us hard , we would be seeing 25% public sector pay cuts and the same from social wellfare

+1

They are living in hope something turns up and in the meantime try and keep the ECB on side by just doing enough.
Also they are really postponing NAMA so that the real sh*** doesn't hit the fan till after the next election.

Of course one thing that might be in favour of them getting their fat ar*** kicked at the next election is a lot of their champions at the last election have gotten their own ar*** kicked with losses, increased taxes, are looking at unemployment, financial ruin and even emigration.

ff got a lot of votes from the following groups:

• the young professionals who walked into jobs and cheap credit after college
• the young school leavers who thought bertie actually did build the celtic tiger where everything could be bought with a cheap credit card and jobs were two a penny
• the builders who were creaming it in the bubble economy
• the retailers who were creaming it with ripoff pricing
• the little developers who suddently were making millions
• the proeprty speculators and buy to letters who were sitting on property portfolios worth millions
• the public sector employees who had recieved numerous benchmarking awards without the hassel of having to increase productivity and work hard like their private sector counterparts
• the eejits in all the towns around the country that were going to benefit form decentralisation

How many of these are still around and how many want revenge ?
Of course there are some that will vote for ff even if they are theives, child abuse apologists, etc.
Even some of the above groups will vote for them since a vote for fg is a blueshirt vote and vote for labour is well a communist vote. :rolleyes:

Pride Fighter

hallelujajordan wrote: »

A modest budget, followed by a reduction in the unemployment figures (already beginning to happen), followed by a return to low level economic growth (predicted for next year) and you could well see the electorate move back to FF . .

You are talking out of your ass with the bit in bold. Unemployment figures are going down due to emigration. I dont think the emigrants families will vote for them while John or Mary is working for a pittance in London or Melbourne.

irish_bob

brianthebard wrote: »

I'm sorry but FG went up 20 seats in the last election with Kenny at the helm and he is the only party leader still there after that election, these are both important points and I do not understand how people can wilfully ignore this? The party is by all accounts happy with him as leader and that in itself will inspire confidence in the party.

i dont put theese gains down to kenny and here is why

fine gael were always going to bounce back after 2002 , what happened to the party on that wet thursday in may 2002 was a perfect storm , every single toss of a coin seat went to either PD,s or independants , couple that with a booming economy and the north more or less sorted and they were always in for a bad bad day

fine gaels present numbers , i put entirely down the fianna fails unpopularity , enda kenny consistantly polls low in terms of leader ratings and the kenny factor is regulary brought up in terms of whether fine gael have it in them to provide a better alternative

as the american pollster frank luntz said , fine gael are where they are now inspite of enda kenny

irish_bob

Taxipete29 wrote: »

The problem with this strategy is that its all or bust. If they attack Labour as you suggest, how do they co-exist if they dont gain an overall majority??
They would have to compromise on so many areas they would be removed at the next election.

our situation right now is black and white in terms of where we now go , we either sink or swim , fine gael forming a coalition with labour gives us more consenus, centrists, compromising of core principals ( or what i call , bertie,sm )goverment , that is ok whe times are good but not what is needed in times of crisis , consenus compromise with fine gael and labour gave us a prolonged rescession the 1980,s , what we need is single party descisive goverment , finana fail with thier inherent populism cannot provide this so its up to fine gael , time will tell as to whether they have the guts , the omens are not good so far

PaulieD

hallelujajordan wrote: »

followed by a reduction in the unemployment figures (already beginning to happen).

It most certainly is not. The live registar does not give the total number of unemployed in the country. Fianna Fail are massaging the figures, so much so, that when their TDs eventually lose their seats they will walk into a job in one of the Chinese parlours off Parnell Street.

nesf

PaulieD wrote: »

It most certainly is not. The live registar does not give the total number of unemployed in the country. Fianna Fail are massaging the figures, so much so, that when their TDs eventually lose their seats they will walk into a job in one of the Chinese parlours off Parnell Street.

Massaging the figures? Seriously if you want to accuse a Government agency (i.e. the CSO) of corruption either back it up or don't bother saying anything.

Either supply some evidence for deliberate alteration of statistics or I'll delete your post.

PaulieD

nesf wrote: »

Massaging the figures? Seriously if you want to accuse a Government agency (i.e. the CSO) of corruption either back it up or don't bother saying anything.

Either supply some evidence for deliberate alteration of statistics or I'll delete your post.

I am not accusing them of corruption. Those on FAS courses are not included on the live register. Only those in receipt of JSA/JSB.

Edit- I believe there are up to 58,000 people on FAS courses. These people are not included on the live register, as they are on courses, so technically they arent unemployed, they are in further education.

Apologies if I didnt make myself clear. I should compose larger posts, as sometimes, they are very vague.

jank

OK before we all think that FF are back in business just wait for the budget that is coming..... right before xmas..then expect more job losses in the new year once a bad xmas has come to pass, interest rates on the verge of being raised.
OK they have steadied the ship somewhat but there is no way in hell they will be in government after the next GE.

garyt24

They can count on getting my "NO" vote. Time we started sticking up for ourselves because the government certainly wont

transylman

They don't even WANT to win the next election. The country is FUBAR-ed. The national debt is going to skyrocket past 100% of our GDP in the next two years and the proposed budget cuts of 4b will be nowhere near harsh enough. Right now the country is in a nosedive, and taking into account we are running a deficit of 20b, in reality it will take cuts of 8-10b to get things anywhere near under control. That means harsh measures, cuts in public sector spending, reintroduction of third level fees, and cuts to social welfare.

The shower of wasters in FF aren't going to risk doing that. They'll manufacture an excuse to drop out of government and let someone else do the hard work of dealing with their mess (think the 80s all over again).

It really does make you wonder how badly they have to screw things up before people will use their heads and stop voting for them. By rights, after this monumental fock up they should be wiped out as a party.

T runner

clown bag wrote: »

Personally I was delighted to see FF win the last election as anyone with half a brain could see the property crash coming and I know had the other lot been elected that people would blame them and it would mean FF escaping blame. I was glad labour and FG weren't elected as they would be getting buried now never to be elected for another generation if they were in power.

As for next time, it depends how quickly they can turn the economy around. If we are in a period of growth (even small) don't be surprised to see people vote for them again as a pat on the back for a job well done getting us out of the recession. FF want to hit us as hard as they can as fast as they can to allow for growth come next election. That's what they're doing and people will vote for them again. I would still be (mildly) surprised if they were re-elected but it wont be a walk in for FG + LAB.

We get the government we deserve and the Irish people deserve FF tbh.

We get the politicians we deserve, and last time we got 22% publicans, etc etc. Not much difference between FF and FG there Im afraid.

The government will always look like a circus when by and large there are only clowns to choose from.

kenco

Pride Fighter wrote: »

There is no way Labour will get high 20's. At worst they will equal the Spring tide of 33 seats. At best they will get close to 50. Somewhere in the middle is most likely, 37-41 seats.

Low 30s is possible but unlikely to be much more on the basis that to do so would require Labour to run two candidates in the likes of Dublin South and hope that one of the candidates tops the poll and brings in the second on transfers. Where this falls down is that with two candidates (who could get elected) the vote will split and either they will only get the one in (without topping the poll) or they dont get either in as the vote has split. Getting over this problem would take a major jump forward in thinking in the Labour party and also them hitting historicially high levels of support (not for the left but for them specifically).

Even with the Spring Tide its unlikely that any of the poll toppers at the time would have brought in a running mate....

If the Labour leadership has the courage to do it and run good candidates in the big 5 seaters they might pull it off but realistically 50 or close to it is virtually impossible under our PR system for a party of their size and strentgh

Liam Byrne

T runner wrote: »

Not much difference between FF and FG there Im afraid.

This is a line that's becoming all too prevalent - "no difference" / "sure what would FG do differently", blah, blah....

If they did NOTHING they'd do better than FF. At least they wouldn't be spending handing over billions to greedy fcuking bankers who - despite the fact that they'd be bankrupt only for us - are STILL trying to act all business high-and-mighty as usual.

The fact that FF put all the advantage in the banks' corner without a SINGLE legally-enforceable condition or requirement says it all.

If the polls even remotely show people forgetting about this shafting I'll be out reminding people about it myself.

T runner

Liam Byrne wrote: »

This is a line that's becoming all too prevalent - "no difference" / "sure what would FG do differently", blah, blah....

People shouldnt vote for Fianna Fail for the same reason that every party in power in every western country during the recent crisis should lose power:
The reason: The electorate will not tolerate F-ups and complacency by their government. Any party trying to come into government-be warned. This is especially necessary in Ireland.

If they did NOTHING they'd do better than FF.

Thats not good enough-we deserve better. FF/FG pick their candidates from the same pool of publican/lawyer/political family types. Limited pool--limited government. Not good enough.

If the polls even remotely show people forgetting about this shafting I'll be out reminding people about it myself

How, out of interest?

Liam Byrne wrote: »

When I saw the thread title I thought for a minute that I had accidentally clicked the "Humour" link!

Unfortunately we can never say never, but I would seriously doubt it.

And if they do, I'll be emigrating and turning my back on this backward little country forever......there must be some country somewhere that holds politicians accountable!

Im confused. From other threads you seem not to have a problem with the 13% representation that females have in our Dail and you are staunchly against any reduction in drink driving limits in line with other developed countries. Youve got the backward country you want. Why would you leave?

nesf

PaulieD wrote: »

I am not accusing them of corruption. Those on FAS courses are not included on the live register. Only those in receipt of JSA/JSB.

Edit- I believe there are up to 58,000 people on FAS courses. These people are not included on the live register, as they are on courses, so technically they arent unemployed, they are in further education.

Apologies if I didnt make myself clear. I should compose larger posts, as sometimes, they are very vague.

The Live Register is flawed, everyone agrees on this. It's been flawed since it was introduce. Massaging the figures implies that there was some deliberate attempt to change the statistic which there wasn't. Choose your words more carefully in future.

Slydice

kev9100 wrote: »

I have a horrible feeling they will. What does it take for this country to NOT to vote for ff????????

DeVore wrote: »

What it will take is for some, any, form of credible opposition.


DeV.

I see. Hmmm, well based on that, I reckon that means we'll have another FF government in either the coming election or the one after that.

notthenews

<snip>

Pay for advertising if you want to advertise here.

nesf

notthenews banned for spamming.

Liam Byrne

T runner wrote: »

Im confused. From other threads you seem not to have a problem with the 13% representation that females have in our Dail and you are staunchly against any reduction in drink driving limits in line with other developed countries. Youve got the backward country you want. Why would you leave?

Previous "confusion" of yours appears to be caused by not bothering to read or understand posts.

Saying that "I do not have a problem with 13% representation" is an outright lie, and is also off-topic; the reasoning and logic and - my desire for PROPER EQUALITY BASED ON ABILITY - are plain for all to see in that thread.

So - yet again - I've had to report attempted misrepresentation of me by you.

We'll discuss the other thread ON the other thread, where casual readers won't get the wrong idea based on your sneaky tactics.....I will not drag another thread off-topic simply because you choose not to read or acknowledge facts.

DublinWriter

Unless Cowan & Co. strike oil in the midlands a la The Beverley (Cooper-Flynn?) Hilbillies and turn the county into an oil-rich Emerate state, they are facing not only defeat in the next general election, but also possible extinction as a party.

Current support for FF in any snap general election would see them returned with seat numbers akin to the PDs or SF. Things can only get worse between now and the next general election.

I believe that the political landscape in Ireland will change from it's post civil-war demarcation into something different in the next ten years. Quite likely one of the recently founded current citizen groups will naturally evolve into a centre-left party in the wake of the inevitable FG landslide at the next general election.

I think the real question to ask is will FF survive as a political party in the next ten years.

T runner

Liam Byrne wrote: »

Saying that "I do not have a problem with 13% representation" is an outright lie, and is also off-topic; the reasoning and logic and - my desire for PROPER EQUALITY BASED ON ABILITY - are plain for all to see in that thread.

I don't lie pal. You are happy with the status quo (13% females) because it represents their ability.

So - yet again - I've had to report attempted misrepresentation of me by you.

Why tattle about it here so?

As ive said there is little difference between FF and FG. Both have a very limited range of candidates to choose from (male publicans, teachers etc or female relatives of male publicans, teachers etc) so youll get the same thing with either. "Backward" parties shall we say.

FF shouldnt get in because they were in power during the crash. This should be reciprocated in almost all developed countries with their respective parties. The parties in power need to be turfed out at election time. Power should come at a price: that is success. What happened globally and locally needs to be severely punished or punished to the best of our means.

Taxipete29

DublinWriter wrote: »

Unless Cowan & Co. strike oil in the midlands a la The Beverley (Cooper-Flynn?) Hilbillies and turn the county into an oil-rich Emerate state, they are facing not only defeat in the next general election, but also possible extinction as a party.

Current support for FF in any snap general election would see them returned with seat numbers akin to the PDs or SF. Things can only get worse between now and the next general election.

I believe that the political landscape in Ireland will change from it's post civil-war demarcation into something different in the next ten years. Quite likely one of the recently founded current citizen groups will naturally evolve into a centre-left party in the wake of the inevitable FG landslide at the next general election.

I think the real question to ask is will FF survive as a political party in the next ten years.

First of there will be no FG landslide unless they replace Enda. I have nothing against the man, he just doesnt inspire the public enough to get FG an overall majority. Even then it will take something remarkable. If there is any upturn in the economy by the time of an election FF, while losing power will retain more seats than you might think.

FF will easily survive long into the future. They are so imbedded in Irish life. Look at all the scandels that have occured over the years that barely made a dent in their support.

Citizen groups are generally single issue bodies and never survive much longer than the issue. The more recent examples being "save our hospita" candidates. While their intentions are good, the set up of the Dail doesnt allow such groups to gain any sort of foothold unless they garner massive support. The PDs were the last party to make any serious challenge to the establishment and look where they are now.

Liam Byrne

T runner wrote: »

I don't lie pal. You are happy with the status quo (13% females) because it represents their ability.

If this does indeed "represent their ability", EVERYONE should be "happy with it". So why claim that supporting that creates a "backward country" ?

T runner wrote: »

Youve got the backward country you want

Electing people based on their ability would - in my mind - do the precise opposite, and is precisely the reason that I hope it starts to happen more!

I never said I was "happy with 13%" or "the status quo"; I simply said that positive discrimination was not the way to go, and that EVERYONE should be elected based on ability.

At the moment, it seems like no-one is elected on "ability", which is why FF will hopefully be consigned to the dustbin in the very near future.

Off-topic:

1) Lose the "pal". :rolleyes:

2) You've previously proven that you either (a) lie and misrepresent my posts or (b) can't read. You can choose which applies.