MOUNTAIN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY

ECO_WARRIOR

Hi,

I'm looking for a forecast for Mount Leinster for this coming Sunday. Looking by the GFS cahrts some snow is possible at the heighest levels with some very strong winds.

I'm no expert on this , so does anybody else have any idea what the weather will hold up there.

Thanks

M.T. Cranium

I think you're off to a good start with that forecast, really all of us who follow the weather closely have no firm idea how bad it could be on Sunday yet because it will either be the aftermath of a powerful storm on Saturday, or the eventual arrival and departure of that storm in whatever form it takes on Sunday, holding the key to wind speeds, as to temperatures they seem likely to be falling sharply through the period Sunday-Monday from what has been the regime of the past month or so.

I'm sure several good forecasters will show up here once there is some certainty about Saturday's outcome and offer you more details, but for now I would assume it will be quite nasty above 1640 ft or 500 m as you prefer, and really nasty near summits of Ireland's higher peaks.

Could all improve though, last Sunday was probably a lot less blustery than first envisaged in the wake of a strong storm.

I suppose the other question would be, do you have to go up there this Sunday?

Kippure

ECO_WARRIOR wrote: »

Hi,

I'm looking for a forecast for Mount Leinster for this coming Sunday. Looking by the GFS cahrts some snow is possible at the heighest levels with some very strong winds.

I'm no expert on this , so does anybody else have any idea what the weather will hold up there.

Thanks

I was on top of kippure during a storm......I wouldnt do it again. Its frightening.

Firstly you cant hear some one shouting right beside you. We had to take shelter and keep as low as possible. Our clothes we,re been ripped at by the wind. It became very cold. The rain was like pins been fired at your face.

All in all not worth it. Though it was rather mental.

Rougies

Kippure, did you plan to be up there during the storm?

Tactical

Kippure wrote: »

I was on top of kippure during a storm......I wouldnt do it again. Its frightening.

Firstly you cant hear some one shouting right beside you. We had to take shelter and keep as low as possible. Our clothes we,re been ripped at by the wind. It became very cold. The rain was like pins been fired at your face.

All in all not worth it. Though it was rather mental.

Where the heck did you manage to find shelter on Kippure in such weather ( :eek: ) and were you up there to experience such weather or just got caught in such an event?

I follow the weather threads and mainly lurk. Two reasons, one is that I have an interest in such things and the other is that my job can involve me having to actually go out professionally in such conditions.

Could I make a suggestion that people please consider not going to places that are elevated such as those mentioned on this thread as if the weather forecasts do continue to suggest a rather strong wind event and something goes wrong while on an elevated site that lives can be put in danger by having to deploy resources to bring people in trouble off hilltops and mountains where perhaps such resources may be better placed to deal with other incidents occurring at lower elevations where people have not intentionally set out for such high risk locations. Same goes for coastal locations.

Its fine if people are experienced and adequetely prepared and equipped to be self sufficient for the duration of any expected weather, go out and enjoy it to the full as its rare enough we get such a possible wind event. Its fantastic to experience the raw power of nature but for those who would not normally be out hillwalking or be experienced in the local conditions of coastal locations please consider asking the advice of someone local to the proposed area and always let someone know where you are going, your intended route, you intended return time as well as any locations you may possibly take shelter in if things get too bad for you to handle and you can't make your return point or time. Mobile phones may not always work or service may be affected or even locally overloaded if things get bad.

Sorry if it sounds as if I'm preaching not to go out, I'm not because I'll certainly be out. All I'm trying to say is think carefully about any location and the potential hazards and don't put yourself or others at risk.

Kippure

Rougies wrote: »

Kippure, did you plan to be up there during the storm?

I do that sort of thing and we are prepared for the worst. Been going out in such weather for years. That was my first experience of the raw power of wind.

Mind you, it was forecast for strong gales but at a higher elevation...its a differant ball game.

Kippure

Tactical wrote: »

Where the heck did you manage to find shelter on Kippure in such weather ( :eek: ) and were you up there to experience such weather or just got caught in such an event?

I follow the weather threads and mainly lurk. Two reasons, one is that I have an interest in such things and the other is that my job can involve me having to actually go out professionally in such conditions.

Could I make a suggestion that people please consider not going to places that are elevated such as those mentioned on this thread as if the weather forecasts do continue to suggest a rather strong wind event and something goes wrong while on an elevated site that lives can be put in danger by having to deploy resources to bring people in trouble off hilltops and mountains where perhaps such resources may be better placed to deal with other incidents occurring at lower elevations where people have not intentionally set out for such high risk locations. Same goes for coastal locations.

Its fine if people are experienced and adequetely prepared and equipped to be self sufficient for the duration of any expected weather, go out and enjoy it to the full as its rare enough we get such a possible wind event. Its fantastic to experience the raw power of nature but for those who would not normally be out hillwalking or be experienced in the local conditions of coastal locations please consider asking the advice of someone local to the proposed area and always let someone know where you are going, your intended route, you intended return time as well as any locations you may possibly take shelter in if things get too bad for you to handle and you can't make your return point or time. Mobile phones may not always work or service may be affected or even locally overloaded if things get bad.

Sorry if it sounds as if I'm preaching not to go out, I'm not because I'll certainly be out. All I'm trying to say is think carefully about any location and the potential hazards and don't put yourself or others at risk.

We were on the side facing Dublin and the wind was tearing through from the sally gap side. We just got nice and low behind the mounds of peat thats been scared away over the years.

Rougies

I have a good bit of experience in the great outdoors myself, but with Saturday's forecast I think I'll stay put this time.

To Kippure and Tactical ... what would be your plans for Saturday if the storms comes off as currently forecast by the models? Surely you wouldn't be thinking of heading to high elevations?!?! :eek:

maquiladora

The 12Z GFS pushes the arrival of the storm back from Saturday to Sunday and weakens it. Not sure if that run will become a trend or not yet.

Kippure

Rougies wrote: »

I have a good bit of experience in the great outdoors myself, but with Saturday's forecast I think I'll stay put this time.

To Kippure and Tactical ... what would be your plans for Saturday if the storms comes off as currently forecast by the models? Surely you wouldn't be thinking of heading to high elevations?!?! :eek:

I,d be going alright. Some crack, You can jump in the air and fly.....lol

Tactical

Rougies wrote: »

To Kippure and Tactical ... what would be your plans for Saturday if the storms comes off as currently forecast by the models? Surely you wouldn't be thinking of heading to high elevations?!?! :eek:

Unless its for professional purposes I wouldn't dream of heading for altitude. I'd more have an interest of recording local damage or flooding on video or camera in a responsible manner not putting myself in danger or a position that would require resources to extract me if I ran into trouble (i.e. vehicle stuck in a flood etc...)

mike65

Anyone who goes up a mountain in the weather thats likely should think about the people they will endanger when they seek rescue.

greysides

You won't need to travel to a mountain this weekend.................the weather will bring it to you.............................!:D

M.T. Cranium

Here's one rough guide you can use to estimate conditions at higher elevations on any given day, the upper air sounding or "tephigram" from Valentia. It's updated at 00h, 06h, 12h and 18h each day (and I would imagine the latest one shows up more like 02h, 08h, 14h and 20h on the met.ie website).

The link is at:

http://www.met.ie/latest/valentia.asp


Looking at the 00z sounding from last midnight, if that parcel of air slid across to Wicklow by 0900 (not that far off reality) then you could draw these conclusions:

Around 600 metres, wind SSW 52 knots, temp and dew point near 8 C would imply foggy conditions and rain at that height (you'd be in the stratus layer). But a more polished forecast would have to take into account how much turbulence there might be around the higher mountains, and how much that parcel of air might change -- obviously the Valentia sounding would be more useful to a climber in Kerry where conditions would be almost identical at peak height to the 850 mb sounding (probably more like the average of the 925 and 850 mb soundings).

Anyway, check these tephigrams out through the weekend and see just how strong the winds get at these heights (the standard levels on the right will include 925 mbs and 850 mbs, the first number there is the actual elevation in metres, the second number is the wind direction and the third is the speed in knots -- there's no indication of gust speed because this is an instantaneous speed measured by the balloon -- however, gustiness decreases as you get away from the uneven surface of the earth).

As to the question of mountain climbing this weekend, I would say sure, if you're in the south of France maybe.

Tactical

greysides wrote: »

You won't need to travel to a mountain this weekend.................the weather will bring it to you.............................!:D

Hopefully

M.T. Cranium

I saw the highlights of the Ireland-France match last night, and then I wanted to post a note on the soccer thread on boards, but apparently I am not allowed in there. But I was going to say, the best idea would be to send the French team to the handball championships and Ireland to South Africa, but perhaps just send the French team on a training climb this weekend?

Anyway, still not looking like a very safe idea.

ECO_WARRIOR

The forecast has changed alot since the start of the week. Now it does not look safe at all to go up so I have decided against it. I might try again next Sunday.

Thanks to everybody for the advice.