Fine Gael at record high

jank

Can we get onto the topic at hand?

Very interesting poll. This really cements that there has been a fundamental shift to FG from FF by many voters. Some FF voters have also swung to Labour and Sinn Fein. This is very bad news by FF considering the nightmare budget is due to be delievered in 2 weeks. Expect a few more points shaved off FF and for them to hover around the 20's or maybe even go under it. These votes should go to Labour.

Also interesting is the lack of a breakthrough of labour. The media keep on going on about gilmore and the great job he is doing but that is not transcending any more. The people want to see solutions and all the see is Labour pandering to the PS workers. When they see a union gob****e on tv they think labour! Its clear that the people of ireland realise that pay cuts must happen for state spending be brought under control.

These numbers though will mean that the next government will be a FG - Labour government but if FG can break the magic 40 mark a overall majority might be on the cards or at least very close to it with the odd independent thrown in.

FF is looking at a FG 2002 esque meltdown that could take a generation to fix.
Nevermind the fact that 2 or 3 incumbent FF TDs will not get elected on a mid 20's polling in whatever constituency. These TDs will be not looking at the opposition but trying to stab the other FFer in the back to retain his seat. It is going to be very nasty out there when a GE is called.

The big fear though is that they become the 3rd party. Labour on the left, FG on the right. It happened in the UK could it happen here?

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

dlofnep

nesf wrote: »

Um, a combination that would total 27% of the vote, as measured by that poll is not in anyway a credible alternative since it couldn't come close to holding a majority in the Dáil. You might wish for the two parties to have enough seats to do so and that's fair enough but right now such a combination simply isn't a credible alternative since a credible alternative would by definition need to be capable of forming a Government.

A fair point. Obviously with the current holdings, it isn't possible. I was referring to a credible alternative from a theoretical standpoint.

imme

dlofnep wrote: »

A fair point. Obviously with the current holdings, it isn't possible. I was referring to a credible alternative from a theoretical standpoint.

I don't know that SF & Labour are that compatible from a policy point of view. Labour is quite broad politically, are they even a left-wing party in the European context.

irish_bob

imme wrote: »

I don't know that SF & Labour are that compatible from a policy point of view. Labour is quite broad politically, are they even a left-wing party in the European context.

labour have shifted sharply to the left since gilmore took over

imme

irish_bob wrote: »

labour have shifted sharply to the left since gilmore took over

?how has this manifested itself. (maybe another thread needed for that).
The wonderful Kevin Myers? wrote recently that in effect the old Workers Party has taken over Labour. The current and previous leaders are old WP men. The Deputy Leader under Quinn was old WP too. Anyway none of this seems to have done any good for their numbers. Even with Labour & WP together their numbers are lesser than the parts put together.

Moriarty

Probably off topic in this thread, but it's a bugbear of mine..

RTE wrote:

When asked about the Budget, 76% said the Government should increase taxes on those earning over €100,000 a year

I guess it's just coincidence that probably significantly fewer than 24% would earn over €100,000..

RTE wrote:

while 56% prioritise public sector pay cuts.

.. and I guess it's also just coincidence that ~85% of the labour force don't work in the public sector.


What have we specifically learnt from keeping the polling companies in business this week? Nothing of value.

What could we possibly deduce from the figures? That people want cuts which don't affect them. Shocking.

On the other hand, it's a good demonstration of why the "public mood" is to be studiously ignored when you're coming up to a budget.

brianthebard

nesf wrote: »

Um, a combination that would total 27% of the vote, as measured by that poll is not in anyway a credible alternative since it couldn't come close to holding a majority in the Dáil. You might wish for the two parties to have enough seats to do so and that's fair enough but right now such a combination simply isn't a credible alternative since a credible alternative would by definition need to be capable of forming a Government.

While I agree that SF and Labour probably don't have enough support to go into government without any other partners, simply adding the figures from the poll together isn't accurate either, since it doesn't reflect what would actually happen in an election. One can assume with some certainty that a large percentage of SF voters would give Labour a preference and perhaps vice versa as well.

nesf

brianthebard wrote: »

While I agree that SF and Labour probably don't have enough support to go into government without any other partners, simply adding the figures from the poll together isn't accurate either, since it doesn't reflect what would actually happen in an election. One can assume with some certainty that a large percentage of SF voters would give Labour a preference and perhaps vice versa as well.

Indeed. However if one is strictly talking about viable alternative Governments then one would have to put together some group that look like they'd have enough seats from poll numbers. Actual seats will vary because a nationwide poll says little about actual seats won unless you break it down by constituency etc.

My point was simply that given present polling it's extremely unlikely that SF/Labour would be a viable combination, versus FG/Labour which looks really strong at the moment.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Liam Byrne

brianthebard wrote: »

One can assume with some certainty that a large percentage of SF voters would give Labour a preference and perhaps vice versa as well.

I don't know enough about SF voters to either agree or disagree with the first part, but I'd reckon it's a big jump to come to the "vice versa" conclusion.

Anyway, the thread is about FG's jump and the fact that Labour haven't - despite Gilmore's decent-enough performance - capitalised on FF's monumental ****-ups.

Sand

I'd agree - I dont think you can assume that Labour voters would transfer to SF. One of the main problems hampering a SF breakthrough is a lack of transfers due to their "baggage". Even the likes of Toirese Ferris or whateverhernameis cited it to explain their last electoral failure.

eoinbn

Moriarty wrote: »

What could we possibly deduce from the figures? That people want cuts which don't affect them. Shocking.

On the other hand, it's a good demonstration of why the "public mood" is to be studiously ignored when you're coming up to a budget.

What we can tell is that people are in for one huge wakeup call! This whole debate about whether we should tax OR cut- it's a complete waste of time! Everyone is going to pay more taxes, and there will be cuts, massive ones.

dlofnep

Sand wrote: »

I'd agree - I dont think you can assume that Labour voters would transfer to SF. One of the main problems hampering a SF breakthrough is a lack of transfers due to their "baggage". Even the likes of Toirese Ferris or whateverhernameis cited it to explain their last electoral failure.

I think it certainly does account for votes, you're 100% right - But the further the peace process progresses, the less this will matter IMO. It might take 10-15 years, but it will happen.

nesf

dlofnep wrote: »

I think it certainly does account for votes, you're 100% right - But the further the peace process progresses, the less this will matter IMO. It might take 10-15 years, but it will happen.

Yeah but SF won't remain fixed over this period and will continue to evolve both in terms of political and economic policy. The SF of 15-20 years time might be unrecognisable from the SF of today similar to how the Labour of today is quite different compared to that of the late 80s and so on.

dlofnep

nesf wrote: »

Yeah but SF won't remain fixed over this period and will continue to evolve both in terms of political and economic policy. The SF of 15-20 years time might be unrecognisable from the SF of today similar to how the Labour of today is quite different compared to that of the late 80s and so on.

I'm not sure how true that is. I don't see any major changes with SF from now to 20 years time. It will still remain a left-wing, working-class orientated party - dedicated to furthering the goal of an 32 county Irish Republic (albeit through peaceful means).

Sorry if we're taking this thread slightly out of scope at the mo

Liam Byrne

dlofnep wrote: »

I think it certainly does account for votes, you're 100% right - But the further the peace process progresses, the less this will matter IMO. It might take 10-15 years, but it will happen.

I'd disagree.......the mindset of not condemning atrocities and crimes is still there, and that needs to be sorted out before they can be even remotely considered acceptable.

Like FF not condemning Ahern's or O'Donoghue's actions, this will be remembered by those who are not predisposed to voting for them.

But that's a topic for another thread, other than to say that I'm actually surprised that FG have bounced this much because FG were nowhere near vocal enough in condemning FF's cowboys, and therefore I would have viewed that they tainted themselves in the process and damaged their standing.

nesf

dlofnep wrote: »

I'm not sure how true that is. I don't see any major changes with SF from now to 20 years time. It will still remain a left-wing, working-class orientated party - dedicated to furthering the goal of an 32 county Irish Republic (albeit through peaceful means).

Sorry if we're taking this thread slightly out of scope at the mo

Will it? Honestly (as an outsider) I think the party has moved away from the goal of a 32 county republic and more towards representing working class areas as a prime goal/headline of their politics. But yeah off topic, perhaps start a thread on the question?

brianthebard

Liam Byrne wrote: »

I don't know enough about SF voters to either agree or disagree with the first part, but I'd reckon it's a big jump to come to the "vice versa" conclusion.

I said perhaps vice versa in fairness-it would really be a case by case basis for the electorate but I do believe there are transfers available to SF. While I don't think SF and Labour are going to merge any time soon there is clearly an overlap in policy and if they continue to push working class representation as nesf suggests they will be able to pick up more transfers as time goes on.

dlofnep

nesf wrote: »

I think the party has moved away from the goal of a 32 county republic

It certainly hasn't, it's still as relevant as it ever was. Alot of ongoing campaigns surrounding the issue, and more upcoming campaigns. It still remains the only 32-county party in Ireland and that will always ensure that a 32 county Republic is a prime objective.

nesf

brianthebard wrote: »

I said perhaps vice versa in fairness-it would really be a case by case basis for the electorate but I do believe there are transfers available to SF. While I don't think SF and Labour are going to merge any time soon there is clearly an overlap in policy and if they continue to push working class representation as nesf suggests they will be able to pick up more transfers as time goes on.

I'd argue they're competing for the same seats in some areas and Labour is being pushed more into middle class as SF capture more of the working class vote displacing Labour (as well as FF).

imme

nesf wrote: »

I'd argue they're competing for the same seats in some areas and Labour is being pushed more into middle class as SF capture more of the working class vote displacing Labour (as well as FF).

SF only have about the same support that Workers Party used to get in the '80's, early 90's. In fact they probably have less than WP used to get. I don't see SF increasing their support in non-working class areas.

Het-Field

All within the margin of error. The poll tells us little.

FG are well ahead of FF

imme

Het-Field wrote: »

All within the margin of error. The poll tells us little.

FG are well ahead of FF

polls tend to be an accurate reflection. here's the exit poll and actual results from 2007 General Election:

"The first preference results, with the Exit Poll figures in brackets, were as follows:
FF 41.6 (41.6)
FG 27.3 (26.3)
Lb 10.1 (9.9)
SF 6.9 (7.3)
GP 4.7 (4.8)
PD 2.7 (2.6)
Others 6.6 (7.5)"

-rte

dlofnep

dlofnep wrote: »

Aren't we all slightly biased when it comes to politics? I mean, it's all subjective decision making at the end of the day.

Firstly, their leader lacks any backbone - which was evident in regards to the John O'Donoghue case. The country needs a strong leader, and Enda Kenny just isn't the man for the job. Not to mention, it might not look good to have a leader of a country who has been condemned for racist comments.

Secondly, I disagree wholeheartedly with Fine Gael's economics. This country does not need a right-winged, neo-liberal party to resolve the current mess. It needs real economic change, and Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are just two sides of the same coin at this point.

The party is far too conservative, and through speaking to FG activists - I found them way too conservative on a social level, especially in regards to gay rights. You can a look at the results from their own youth wing's poll in regards to gay marriage with the majority stating that gay marriage should never be legalised. : http://www.yfg.ie/pollBooth.php?op=results&pollID=47&mode=&order=&thold= - And while Enda might say the party supports gay rights, at a grassroots level, the opposite is true from my experience.

On an international level - Fine Gael appears to want to erode our neutrality. I believe that our neutrality is an important core aspect of this state when it comes to international disputes. Irish people are respected around the world, because of our neutrality.

I don't believe that Fine Gael are a credible alternative. We've seen this nonsense before, where Fianna Fáil have slipped up and Fine Gael have used opportunistic tactics to get into Government, only to change absolutely nothing. All the issues we see today, with mass unemployment and such was tackled by Fine Gael in the 80's, and they failed.

You do realise Ireland is not neutral?

irish_bob

brianthebard wrote: »

While I agree that SF and Labour probably don't have enough support to go into government without any other partners, simply adding the figures from the poll together isn't accurate either, since it doesn't reflect what would actually happen in an election. One can assume with some certainty that a large percentage of SF voters would give Labour a preference and perhaps vice versa as well.

sinn fein and labour represent different demographics , sinn fein voters are mostly working class where as labour are the most middle class party in the country apart from the greens

lugha

dlofnep wrote: »

I'm not sure how true that is. I don't see any major changes with SF from now to 20 years time. It will still remain a left-wing, working-class orientated party - dedicated to furthering the goal of an 32 county Irish Republic (albeit through peaceful means).

Leaving the UI bit aside I am not too sure that they will stay the same. I see no evidence that a left wing party in Ireland would ever be more than a minor party in government. I don't think the movement of the old guard of Sinn Fein / Workers party through to DL to Labour was done because they all suddenly felt the need to politically realign. If they stayed where they want they would have remained politically irrelevant. There seems very little real appetite amongst the Irish for left wing politics and what support there is is massively fragmented. How many actual teeny parties of the left do we actually have? Even the likes of Jim Kemmy and even (at a distance) the late Tony Gregory ultimately got down and dirty and pragmatic with the centralist parties.

nesf

Het-Field wrote: »

All within the margin of error. The poll tells us little.

FG are well ahead of FF

No! Margin of error works both ways so Labour is as likely to have lost 4% as have lost none! It's only with changes much smaller than the margin of error that we can truly ignore a poll's results.

murphaph

dlofnep wrote: »

A left wing alliance between Labour and Sinn Féin would be a credible alternative.

Our economic woes (created largely by FF policies aimed at buying votes through record increases in public sector numbers/remuneration and social welfare, despite having no unemployment for those who wanted to work) are now so serious that we need a fairly right wing approach to slash current public expenditure in all areas.

Ireland is sick. It is highly uncompetitive compared to our main trading partners and costs need to fall into line with these countries if Ireland is to exit recession.

Ireland can't live in a left wing bubble, somehow isolated from the UK and the rest of the Eurozone, where it is often MUCH cheaper to run a business (and hence employ people).

We don't have the luxury of the Scandinavian model (high taxes and high pay) because the Scandinavians largely make their own luck by actually starting businesses that make things that the rest of the world wants and are prepared to pay a premium for. Ireland mostly just makes things designed by foreigners. We are still basically an expensive version of China, whether people like to believe that or not. R&D is rare in Ireland. While Finland developed the likes of Nokia to dig itself out of its economic problems, the Irish decided manufacturing things was old hat and that we should buy and sell property from/to one another and all would be well and we'd all be rich. It didn't work, unsurprisingly.

Only pro-business parties and policies can now save Ireland. FF were once that party (under Haughey, crook and all that he was). FF then lost their way under Ahern and Ireland is now paying the price. FF seem unable at the moment to deliver the bad news, but I'll hold my fire until the budget.

Regardless, a left wing coalition of any description will not make the required cuts in govt expenditure.

yoshytoshy

Do these polls actually aid fianna fail ,in the future ?
What I mean by this is ,they create an illusion that people have had there say.
By the time an actual election comes along ,people are fed up with the opposition.