Potential Storm Tuesday/Wednesday - 24/25 November

maquiladora

Well, the last two GFS runs have been further downgrades, the overall intensity has been reduced a lot by the GFS over the past couple of days and it doesn't look like the next couple of days will be as windy as expected.

Met Eireann has removed the weather warning posted yesterday for high winds, the new warning is just based on rainfall this morning...

Weather Warning

Issued at 24 November 2009 - 08:47

Rainfal amounts of between 15 and 30 mm will accumulate today; the highest totals are most likely in areas already flooded.

Hooter23

I'm surprised it has been downgraded after the wind we had in Galway last night must have been gusting around 60mph almost continuously

Discodog

There is a definite difference to the weekend. These winds are much more consistent with less different between mean wind speed & gusts.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Met Eireann has removed the weather warning posted yesterday for high winds, the new warning is just based on rainfall this morning...

The sea area forecast still has the mention of gales with possible storm force winds later tonight in coastal areas:

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/sea-area.asp

This was always a tricky set up though, so even if the strongest of the winds do not occur, at least cautious warnings were still mentioned because it was a set up that could have easily turned dangerous.

maquiladora

Maybe someone can correct me on this, but I think at the moment the winds being experienced now are due to an approaching cold front, and that the winds from the low itself won't start arriving until late tonight / early tomorrow morning. (?)

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

Maybe someone can correct me on this, but I think at the moment the winds being experienced now are due to an approaching cold front, and that the winds from the low itself won't start arriving until late tonight / early tomorrow morning. (?)

Correct - there will be a lull this afternoon before stronger winds arrive later tonight and early tomorrow morning.

maquiladora

96.3kmph gust at Mace Head.

A lot of stations and almost all buoys are n/a today, I guess that is somehow related to the public sector strike today, so we might miss some high gusts from key stations like Belmullet today.

Deep Easterly

Current meteograms by yr.no still suggesting an increase in wind later tonight into tomorrow morning along Atlantic headlands:








Image source: http://www.yr.no/

Those were issued at 7.00am this morning so may be updated soon. Will update later if necessary.

maquiladora

Orange Meteoalarm warning out now for the northwest...

Warnings for: Ulster_Donegal

valid from 24.11.2009 09:10 CET Until 25.11.2009 11:59 CET

Wind

Awareness Level: Orange

"Southwesterly winds will gust 70 to 100 km/hr during Tuesday, then southwest to west winds will gust 100 to 125 km/hr during the first half of Wednesday."

http://www.meteoalarm.eu/area.asp?lang=EN&ShowDate=tomorrow&Country=IE&area=167&areaname=

RoisinD

Discodog wrote: »

There is a definite difference to the weekend. These winds are much more consistent with less different between mean wind speed & gusts.

Wind speeds here have almost been consistently above 50mph (80+km) since very early morning. Accompanied of course by the obligatory rain.:(
Different pattern to the weekend so far with no majorly strong gusts so far.

Discodog

yr.no were so wrong at the weekend !

maquiladora

Plenty of rain everywhere this afternoon I'm afraid, bad news for people dealing with flooding...

maquiladora

Rising waters in Athlone town

Tuesday, 24 November 2009 13:19


The Army has been called in to assist with efforts to tackle rising water levels in Athlone.

Around 30 Army personnel are now involved in assessment of the areas most at risk around the town.

Waterways Ireland has said that the levels below the lock in Athlone at Golden Island have now reached 38.98m, which is 4cm above yesterdays levels.
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Yesterday's levels were 40cm above average upstream from the lock for this time of year and levels are continuing to rise.

This afternoon soldiers will begin the distribution of sand bags to the areas most at risk.

Some businesses on the west side of Athlone are coming under increasing pressure from rising waters.

Already 16 houses at Iona Villas in the town have been flooded and most of the residents have gathered in the upstairs section of one house.

They are reluctant to leave the area because of fears over break-ins.

Local authority staff in Athlone are on strike as a result of today's national day of action.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2009/1124/weather.html

mike65

The wind is the thing right now, doors rattling in the sudden gusts.

Discodog

Calmed down a lot here.

maquiladora

mike65 wrote: »

The wind is the thing right now, doors rattling in the sudden gusts.

That will ease off on the south coast by around 7pm, then the winds from the low itself will start rising on the west and northwest coasts later this evening.

secman

Been very blustery in West Dublin for last few hours, raining quite heavy at the moment.

Secman

maquiladora

12Z GFS is a bit of an upgrade on the previous run (but not much), seems to track the low further south and the overall intensity has increased on this run a bit, still the same areas being affected: the northwest getting the strongest of the winds, then later the Irish Sea should see some strong gusts, the east coast a bit more windy tomorrow morning on this run.


3am Wednesday :


9am Wednesday:





All subject to change on the next run of course! :pac:

And away from the models and back in the real world, you can see the low here on the sat loop : http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=gb&sat=ir&type=loop

maquiladora

New weather warning out from Met Eireann....

Weather Warning

Issued at 24 November 2009 - 16:19

Weather Warning Update

Turning stormy tonight with winds gusting 100 to 130km/h, with highest values in Northern areas

Deep Easterly

Discodog wrote: »

yr.no were so wrong at the weekend !

For you maybe, but for me, 10 out 10 for spot on-ness.

Latest UKMO for midnight tonight:



Image Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/pws/invent/

Trough approaching from the west.

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Trough approaching from the west.

How do you rate the significance of that? Does that mean a secondary cold front might move over the south or something?

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

How do you rate the significance of that? Does that mean a secondary cold front might move over the south or something?

More or less, although it is more of a showery trough that is normal in these types of set up. Showers that can be prolonged and/or heavy but tend to pass over relatively fairly quickly. The difference between this sort of trough and a normal cold front is that there isn't a huge difference between temperature on either side of the front. It is more formed by convection over a smaller area which lowers pressure and causes a fairly sharp veer. Hence squally winds and those black, cold, driving showers. :pac:

Lumi

maquiladora wrote: »

That will ease off on the south coast by around 7pm, then the winds from the low itself will start rising on the west and northwest coasts later this evening.

Right enough, the wind is really starting to pick up again here

Discodog

I have just returned from an amazing dog walk. I checked the radar & there were a couple of small (yellow) showers West of Galway. I was walking by the sea & feeling pleased that I could see that I had just missed a shower.
The wind was about 10 mph.

Suddenly I got hit by a load of hailstones, out of a clear sky, & the wind instantly picked up to the point where I could barely stand ( I would estimate it at 70 mph). I was literally looking for a funnel & I ended up practically on all fours !. The dogs dived for shelter & the wind died down but remained gusty for another 10 minutes or so.

I am assuming that this was some kind of squall or microburst ?.

maquiladora

Discodog wrote: »

I have just returned from an amazing dog walk. I checked the radar & there were a couple of small (yellow) showers West of Galway. I was walking by the sea & feeling pleased that I could see that I had just missed a shower.
The wind was about 10 mph.

Suddenly I got hit by a load of hailstones, out of a clear sky, & the wind instantly picked up to the point where I could barely stand ( I would estimate it at 70 mph). I was literally looking for a funnel & I ended up practically on all fours !. The dogs dived for shelter & the wind died down but remained gusty for another 10 minutes or so.

I am assuming that this was some kind of squall or microburst ?.

Sounds like that wind was the outflow from the cloud dropping that hail. Can see some pink flecks in that shower on the radar that probably got you. Plenty of those heavy/thundery showers expected to roll in tonight.

maquiladora

Speaking of severe weather, Estofex have just released a forecast update.

Threat level 1 over the entire country and most of the UK "for a chance of tornadoes and severe gusts."

http://www.estofex.org/

So will we be staying up to find bow echos on the radar tonight? :pac:

Deep Easterly

Met.ie Ag rainfall total chart for the 7 days up to midnight 22nd:



One for the archives for what could possibly be the wettest 7 days on record.

Back to the moment, trough area out west beginning to show up on met eireann high-res:



Pressure beginning to fall a little once again here in Galway at 986.7mb

cian1500ww

How are the rainfall amounts looking so far ?

I have just returned from an amazing dog walk. I checked the radar & there were a couple of small (yellow) showers West of Galway. I was walking by the sea & feeling pleased that I could see that I had just missed a shower.
The wind was about 10 mph.

Suddenly I got hit by a load of hailstones, out of a clear sky, & the wind instantly picked up to the point where I could barely stand ( I would estimate it at 70 mph). I was literally looking for a funnel & I ended up practically on all fours !. The dogs dived for shelter & the wind died down but remained gusty for another 10 minutes or so.

I am assuming that this was some kind of squall or microburst ?.

I would have loved to have experienced that, must have been quite scary at the time :eek:

mike65

Nothing happening down here.

Deep Easterly

Groovy lil' shower moved through about 10 mins ago with gusty winds. Didn't last long but there was a bit of hail as well.