Will it snow this Christmas 2009?

.243

Iancar29 wrote: »

I GOT A 7-2 BET IN THE BOOKIES FOR SNOW ON CHRISTMAS DAY!

Just had a feelin that it will snow !

i got caught out a few years ago when there was a sprinkling,went to the bookies to be told it has to be an inch of snow at the weather station at dublin airport for a pay out

5500

PaddyPower says

Settled using official Weather station data from main International Airports of each city. 1mm of snowfall must be recorded as falling between 00:00 and 23:59 on Dec 25th 2009. PP decision is final in settlement of this market.

What dya reckon is it worth a punt?

Danno

Interesting... http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ireland-heading-for-white-christmas-says-postman-438090.html

Scubadevils

Danno wrote: »

Interesting... http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/ireland-heading-for-white-christmas-says-postman-438090.html

Hmmm... predict a white Christmas just under two weeks before the day, get some media attention, great opportunity to talk about his new book :pac:

JulietLima

id bet on this guy

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1213/breaking13.htm

redalicat

Hmmm, good point. But I still hope he's right!

biko

howlinwolf wrote: »

hey guys.......i no its a few weeks off yet but was just wondering(hoping) if the weather over the christmas period is showing any signs of snow:). or are we in for another mild xmas day........even a hard frost would be nice for our snow starved country........ all forecast models welcome even the ones that change every day:).......

Depends where you are, certain areas in the north are more likely to see snow than the rest of the country.

matchthis

Iancar29 wrote: »

I HAD TAT FEELIN TAT IT IS GONNA SNOW THIS CHRISTMAS,

So.............I WENT A PUT A BET DOWN IN THE BOOKIES!

GOT A 7-2 BEt for ONE SNOWFLAKE TO BE SEEN AT DUBLIN AIRPORT!

COME ON THE SNOW!!!!!! :D:D

Merchant of Venice anyone? Two snoflakes or more, you loose

patneve

matchthis wrote: »

Merchant of Venice anyone? Two snoflakes or more, you loose

glad we're talking about snowflakes and not pounds of flesh:)

Pangea

Any charts floating around for xmas day?

nacho libre

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

Thanks
So can some explain what that means?

nacho libre

repost your post nacho i tried to quote u and deleted by mistake:eek:

sorry!

ninebeanrows

well it may change between now and then, but I think those atmosphere temps of -5 would make it marginal for any precipitation to fall as snow at lower levels.

Not in this situation with a inbuilt low level cold, infact anything below -2/-3c would be condusive to snow next week depending on dews etc.

But next week 850hpas become slightly less relevent once below -2/-3c

nacho libre

Weathercheck wrote: »

well it may change between now and then, but I think those atmosphere temps of -5 would make it marginal for any precipitation to fall as snow at lower levels.

Not in this situation with a inbuilt low level cold, infact anything below -2/-3c would be condusive to snow next week depending on dews etc.

But next week 850hpas become slightly less relevent once below -2/-3c

it seems i'm learning all the time on this forum. i thought a temperature of -5 at that height in atmosphere would make it marginal regardless of other circumstances.

rovers2001

With the cold spell expected to continue whats the chances of a white christmas this year? The bookies have apparantly slashed their odds so if anything it will be interesting.

nacho libre

according to mt cranium not great. his forecasts have been spot on all year so i can't see him being wrong this time. still there maybe some white stuff leftover from previous days given the weather is set to be cold right up until thursday

200motels

An interesting chart.

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nacho libre

are you suggesting the mild weather will be in before Christmas day?

200motels

nacho libre wrote: »

are you suggesting the mild weather will be in before Christmas day?

No most of that could be wintry, but as you know yourself these charts should be taken with a pinch of salt, like the one below.


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cherryghost

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

And if anyone has the Lotto numbers on them too that would be great;)

6, 11, 14, 22, 25, 33, bonus number is 19

M.T. Cranium

Just wanted to say, besides thanks, my forecasts are really just an indication of model consensus, with a little bit of my own research and intuition thrown in (but not much), so if I sound pessmistic about a white Christmas on any given day now to 24th, it's really a case of the model consensus being pessimistic.

Without the models, I would be absolutely guessing in the dark (using the index values of my research model which were showing a cold spell before Christmas) ... so keep in mind, if the models start changing their tune about the cold hanging on through Christmas Day, then my forecasts will change along with them.

Before I got interesting in Ireland's weather, I was doing some forecasting in the UK (still do that) and my preference is to take the average of three or four models, trending towards one of them that I trust in given situations. For example, when there's a possibility of a strong storm in 4-5 days' time, I tend to take an undercooked version of the GFS which tends to overcook storms at that time frame. Although the GEM is lightly regarded in Europe, I have come to trust it for eastern Canada and the western Atlantic, and so it tends to factor in more positively in some situations.

I'm hoping to be making some changes towards white Christmas forecasts, but the other thing is, when you don't live in the forecast region, you have nothing emotionally invested in any given outcome. That may help in this case, I suppose. I don't expect to see a white Christmas here, although there's lots of snow a little higher up around here.

Let's see what the next day of model runs has to say, the strong storm in the northeast U.S. will be impacting model solutions across the Atlantic now, and I won't be too surprised to see another set of changes (we've seen about three already).

200motels

Met Eireann forecast for the week.

National Forecast


20 December 2009 05:18

Today
Widespread sharp ground frost this morning, with icy stretches likely on untreated roads. Hail, sleet and snow showers affecting Ulster and Connaught will spread to west Munster and north Leinster but much of the south and southeast will be dry and sunny for the day. West to northwest winds will strengthen everywhere, with blizzard conditions and drifting snow at times in the north and northwest. Exceptionally cold due to the wind; highest temperatures 1 to 4 degrees Celsius.
Tonight

Wintry showers persisting tonight in northern and western counties, with further accumulations of snow likely there. West to northwest winds decreasing moderate to fresh generally but remaining bitterly cold. Lowest temperatures 0 to -4 degrees, leading to sharp or severe ground frost and some icy stretches.


Tomorrow

Occasional wintry showers, with further snowfall, in northern and western areas during Monday but mainly dry and sunny elsewhere. Breezy at times and still very cold; highest temperatures 1 to 4 degrees Celsius once more.

Outlook

On Monday night, wintry showers will persist near northern and northwestern coasts but the rest of the country will be dry and mostly clear. Northwest to west winds will slacken generally and it will be extremely cold; severe frost and icy stretches will occur, together with patches of freezing fog. Frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear on Tuesday since there will be little or no wind. Isolated wintry showers will continue to affect northern and northwestern coasts during the day but other areas will be dry with occasional sunshine. Some wintry showers will persist near northern and northwestern coasts on Tuesday night, otherwise it will be dry with clear periods; ice and freezing fog are likely to occur widely. Wednesday will be yet another very cold day with ice and fog possibly lasting throughout the day in some inland areas. Overall, it will be dry with variable cloud but there is a threat of rain approaching southern coasts, which may turn to sleet and snow as it pushes further inland in southern parts of Munster and Leinster. Outbreaks of sleet and snow may spread further north across the country on Wednesday night, with temperatures unlikely to rise significantly during Thursday, Christmas Eve; however, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the weather pattern over Ireland will evolve after midweek.

Pangea

The met uk says it will be a cold xmas in the north and maybe less cold in the south , I wonder what does that mean for us in the north of ireland?

UK Outlook for Thursday 24 Dec 2009 to Saturday 2 Jan 2010:

It will remain unsettled and often windy during the Christmas period with a mixture of brighter spells and showers or longer spells of rain, sleet or snow likely across many areas. The precipitaion will be occasionally heavy. Across southern areas, it is possible it will become less cold during this period with precipitation perhaps turning to rain. Otherwise it continues generally cold, particularly across northern areas with overnight frosts and icy surfaces. Over the weekend and into the following week, staying unsettled and mostly cold. The main sleet and snow risk will continue in the north, whilst the south sees some occasionally less cold spells with rain rather than sleet or snow. As 2010 arrives, still cold and unsettled for many, and chilly northwesterly winds

nacho libre

the bbc weather said it would be cold right up until christmas day- though it will dry and cold over ireland on christmas day. although judging by their charts it wouldn't surprise if the mild air actually breakthrough on wednesday.

mike65

Warm air pushing up from the south on early Chrimbo Day so I guess it could start as light snow before turning to rain.

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

Warm air pushing up from the south on early Chrimbo Day so I guess it could start as light snow before turning to rain.

where are you getting that from mike65. i think the bbc uses the ecm and their latest forecast progs it to be cold and dry on christmas day?

Pangea

The farming forecast put a dampner on the white christmas idea, he said that it is still a possability as the southwest air meets the cold air, but any snow will be short lived :mad: :mad: :mad: :mad:

Mayo Exile

Just after seeing the forecast ater RTE One's 9 o'clock news. Winds going south-westerly on Christmas Day. Then on St. Stephen's Day there's a deep depression to the west with a long band of southerly winds over Ireland & the UK. Looks like the cold spell will be over by next weekend.

pauldry

im not at all surprised that it is getting mild for xmas day. however thought there would be SE winds and rain and snow but it looks like Southerlies now.

On the website I work on I have made very few changes to my long range prediction for the past few weeks and it looks the same now. mild for xmas after cold spell of weather.

btw a lot of rain could be coming for January by the looks of things (by looking at all the long range websites) so flooding could become a problem once more - great - hope this forecast is wrong,