Future of Stormont and the implications for the Republic?

Yixian

Paul4As wrote: »

From the above review of the economic situation of the UK compared to the Republic of Ireland...I wonder why you still live in the UK???
Would it not be better to jump ship now before the UK eventually sinks???The UK with probably be on the ocean bed by 2016!!!
As for the fact that with Ireland being such a small country new policies and initiatives can be quickly implemented on a national level....if you don't have the money, then you can't implement anything!!!
I'm in Mayo most weekends...job-wise it is only getting worse there...the transport network and development of towns like Ballina is non-existant!!! Maybe when you're outside Dublin you can be neglected in Ireland??? I don't know!!!
I don't think anybody knows the full story of UK and Irish debt...do you believe the info governments tell you???...I don't!!!

I am out of here as soon as I finish studying, but that's not to say the UK isn't a decent country, it's got plenty going for it and plenty going against it like anywhere else in Europe. I don't think it's going to necessarily be on the sea bed by 2016 and life for the average Brit isn't going to be impoverished by any means, but the money in Britain is pretty much siphoned directly into finance, not much effort is put into anywhere outside of London and it just can't sustain it's bloated size as the banking sector and North Sea oil continue to decline..

.. There's not much to get excited about the UK, let's put it that way.

Ireland on the other hand does have a ton of debt, but let's put it in perspective, the cuts in this latest budget a 4billion euro, whereas the UK is taking 29billion *pounds* out of it's public services and that's not even considered a particularly large slash.

The relative size of Ireland does have it's advantages, there's no doubt about it. Initiatives like the Spirit of Ireland wouldn't get anywhere in Britain, it's too slow and lumbering. Granted that require Irish politicians to see a good idea when it's in front of them, which up until now has happened an awful lot, but don't forget the Irish state is but 100 years old and new to prosperity, and for all the bollocks that's gone on in the last 20 years, believe me, your politicians are learning a lot faster than British ones. This is your first big recession, Britain has lost count and the cause of it's busts have been more or less the same for the last 30 years but it's not in the slightest bit interested in doing anything about it.

All this talk of a knowledge economy and energy independent Ireland might not come to fruition, but it's the sort of thing nobody even suggests in the UK.

Camelot wrote: »

Just curious (re your insight into this Thread), what region of the UK do you currently live in?
England, NI, Scotland or Wales?

England.

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

I know this is mostly to do with politics north of the border but obviously there could be lots of implications for the south.

I'm sure you all know already but to put it briefly:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8381484.stm

The DUP agreed a few years ago that at some point policing and justice would be devolved to Stormont from Westminster. The DUP had promised to agree on a date for this but a few months ago made a complete U-turn and now refuse to set a date, despite the British government pledging £1bn to fund the transfer, and are throwing lots of political hurdles in the way of Sinn Féin in order to ensure the devolution of D&P is "years away".

McGuinness a few weeks ago said that there would be "serious consequences" for the power sharing government if a deal isn't set before christmas, and the DUP have basically now ruled that out. Both parties have been in talks with the Irish and British governments, but nobody is budging.

The possibility is then that Sinn Féin/McGuinness will quit government, triggering an assembly election.

What makes this a "crisis" is that that election might not be clearly won by unionists:

In 2007, many hardline loyalists who refused to cooperate with Sinn Féin split from the DUP and formed the TUV. Ever since, the DUP have been competing with the TUV for far right unionists, alienating moderate Protestants in NI and splitting the unionist vote.

Conversely the % of native Irish catholics in NI has been increasing for about 20 years and is "supposed" to tip into an overall majority at some point in the first half of the 21st Century.

Either way, the nationalist vote is now less split than ever with Sinn Féin the "largest party in Northern Ireland".

So if an election is held, there's a pretty good chance that SF will win by a large margin, and maybe even... appoint a first minister.

Who would that first minister be? Martin McGuinness ofc. Do you think it helps that today McGuinness was showen to be the most popular minister in NI[url], by a Telegraph poll?

For all the empty words in the St Andrews Agreement that's not supposed to happen, NI was designed to be a mostly stable basket case that would remain de facto unionist forevermore.

I don't know enough about the various clauses in St Andrews about whether or not Sinn Féin could form a government without a unionist party, probably not, but simply having McGuinness as first minister would spell the end for NI in one way or another: either everybody quits Stormont and the entire political structure of NI collapses (not great timing considering the upsurge in RIRA activity) or the political tug of war for the first time shifts towards nationalism.



Actually in the event McGuinness won first minister, the most likely outcome would be political collapse, and who the hell knows what happens after that...

Any ideas?[/url]

Yixian..... There won't be an assembly election if deadlock continues over P&J. The situation will be forestalled by suspension by NIO, to keep shinners on board.[in spite of sf putting in SAA the poroviso perventing suspension after mandelson stunt a few years ago.] this can be got over by a small bit of adjustment oif documents at westminster.
As you say, in an eventual assembly election, SF and Marty would come out on top, but this will not lead to Marty being first minister in anything but name only, since no unionist [DUP or UUP] would risk political suicide by going into such an administration. So what will happen is that local government and devolution will be dead in the water since unionists haven't yet learned anything from the end of Stormont in '72, so they will keep coming back to the table to find less on it for them.
As far as unionists are concerned, NI stopped being 'their wee country' when Ted Heath dissolved their orange police state in '72. They have been dealing with a state of diminishing returns ever since as the demographics go further and further against them. brilliant isn't it?

Yixian

ardmaj wrote: »

brilliant isn't it?

Conceptually, yes.

But must suck for Norners on both sides, in the short term at least.

We have to admit we outside of NI kinda treat the whole thing like a spectator sport

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

Conceptually, yes.

But must suck for Norners on both sides, in the short term at least.

We have to admit we outside of NI kinda treat the whole thing like a spectator sport

there are surely spectator sports more enjoyable than following our little quarrel, unless in a spirit of schadenfreude i suppose. but gloating is unbecoming.

Yixian

ardmaj wrote: »

there are surely spectator sports more enjoyable than following our little quarrel, unless in a spirit of schadenfreude i suppose. but gloating is unbecoming.

It's not so much schadenfreude as it is comforting to know that unionism really is as bad as we wanted it to be.

dlofnep

SF have tried hard to make this process work. They supported policing, with the intention that the powers would be devolved. This has not yet happened, and SF is now in between a rock and a hard place. They lost quite a substantial amount of supporters, and pillars of the grass roots movement over the policing issue.

I can tell you first hand that inequality still exists in the PSNI, and that they have a long way to go before they are a truly accountable police force. Devolution assists with this process. So many of the old RUC still exists within the PSNI, which is why devolution is such a vital process.

The DUP appeared to be moving in the right direction with Paisley (even If I don't like him as a person, or for his politics, it was a bold move by him) - but since Robinson took over - they have gone backwards. This is probably due to the TUV gaining ground.

The DUP cannot have their cake and eat it. They must live up to their side of the deal, and if they can't - then it is entirely their fault if the process fails.

Yixian

dlofnep wrote: »

SF have tried hard to make this process work. They supported policing, with the intention that the powers would be devolved. This has not yet happened, and SF is now in between a rock and a hard place. They lost quite a substantial amount of supporters, and pillars of the grass roots movement over the policing issue.

I can tell you first hand that inequality still exists in the PSNI, and that they have a long way to go before they are a truly accountable police force. Devolution assists with this process. So many of the old RUC still exists within the PSNI, which is why devolution is such a vital process.

The DUP appeared to be moving in the right direction with Paisley (even If I don't like him as a person, or for his politics, it was a bold move by him) - but since Robinson took over - they have gone backwards. This is probably due to the TUV gaining ground.

The DUP cannot have their cake and eat it. They must live up to their side of the deal, and if they can't - then it is entirely their fault if the process fails.

And let's not forget that the current situation is not a compromise. A compromise would be a Northern Ireland that is jointly a part of the UK and Ireland, or part of neither - as it stands NI is still solely part of the UK and so the unionists are already in a position of unfair advantage, and are unwilling to even let up an inch from that.

It will be their downfall.

ardmaj

dlofnep wrote: »

SF have tried hard to make this process work. They supported policing, with the intention that the powers would be devolved. This has not yet happened, and SF is now in between a rock and a hard place. They lost quite a substantial amount of supporters, and pillars of the grass roots movement over the policing issue.

I can tell you first hand that inequality still exists in the PSNI, and that they have a long way to go before they are a truly accountable police force. Devolution assists with this process. So many of the old RUC still exists within the PSNI, which is why devolution is such a vital process.

The DUP appeared to be moving in the right direction with Paisley (even If I don't like him as a person, or for his politics, it was a bold move by him) - but since Robinson took over - they have gone backwards. This is probably due to the TUV gaining ground.

The DUP cannot have their cake and eat it. They must live up to their side of the deal, and if they can't - then it is entirely their fault if the process fails.

diofnep. The DUP are not bothered about little concerns like democracy, because, for them, NI was invented for unionists, so it must be re-gerrymandered until the margins suit them. So by 2020, belfast council will reach out as far as rasharkin in the west, and newry in the south.

Yixian

So Cowen is meeting yet again today with NI ministers..

Does anything actually come out of these meetings? It just seems like one big pretence from Britain and Ireland to give the impression that either country actually cares if the Assembly collapses, neither of them are giving either side any incentive to alter position, other than Britain's £1bn promise if J&P is devolved within a reasonable timeframe.

The DUP are definitely not going to meet McGuinness' demands by Christmas so it really is a ticking timebomb now. I'm not sure people realise quite how serious a situation this is.

The unionists have yet again proven they cannot cooperate under any circumstances, and with a new IRA group forming on one side and the TUV on the other, the failure of institution in the six counties could ignite a really nasty situation.

The only possibly scenario in which there isn't a radical change in the status of NI is if there is an election and a unionist party wins outright - which is almost impossible.

A republican first minister = Assembly collapse = direct rule from London = violence and chaos etc.

Direct rule from London and Dublin then becomes the only answer?

Would NI be considered part of the UK in that case? Would it's sovereign status have to change?

A united Ireland is a lot closer from the point of NI being separate from both nations than it is as part of the UK. The benefits have to be stacked incredibly high in favour of change for change to win in any referendum, people almost always stick with the evil they know, but if NI was independent and the vote was to join either the UK, or the Republic, or neither - well that's different.

Hurry up xmas though, this shiz is going on too long, enough phoney "meetings" that yield nothing.



Also, regarding the problem the Republic would have financing the 6 counties, perhaps the US could play a financial role?

dlofnep

I agree. The failure of Stormont has some serious implications. If it fails, voters might become disenfranchised with the system, and turn to other more radical groups which could see a return of widescale violence in the north. I think most people would absolutely prefer a peaceful compromise, however - if they do not see progress with the political system, then certain people will compromise no further.

I'm not sure if the DUP are aware of these implications, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and suggest that they do. The situation will be alot worse for everyone if the DUP does not agree on devolution. Are they really that much against accountable and balanced justice? It sure looks like it. They see that their grip on politics in the north is weakening, and with the latest results of SF in elections - they are scared of the real possibility of SF becoming the largest party in the north.

The British and Irish governments need to put pressure on them to move forward with this process, or it's dead in the water along with the GFA and then we're back to square one.

Yixian

DUP could not care less about what happens a year from now, they are only concerned with lying in the path of SF and TUV.

dlofnep

Oh they care, just so long as it coincides with their new plans. They are obviously trying to win back votes from the TUV, but at the expense of progress. They don't have the backbone to enter power-sharing. It's a huge shame, because for all of his flaws - they were making some slight progress with Paisley.

rcunning03

Yixian wrote: »

Ireland is in a better long term economic position than the UK. I've always thought Dublin and Belfast would make a killer combo. Obviously the Republica would be in no state to reabsorb the north at the moment, but I don't have too many worries about the future of the ROI unless FF/FG/whoever is in charge for the next few elections really *really* screws things up.

Most parties seems to realise that the old game is up now and all of them basically have a plan to switch to a knowledge economy. NAMA will probably just about work and it looks like the unions are strong enough to prevent a Thatcher style destruction of public services. Add to that the Spirit of Ireland project and I don't see why in another 5-10 years Ireland couldn't be enjoying another, more sustainable boom.. just has to play it's card right.

Britain on the other hand already put all it's eggs in the banking basket, is in more debt than most people could possibly imagine and is running out of North Sea Oil. Even if they survive their next dip into recession, which is just a year or so away, they're on a serious downward spiral unless they really restructure the entire economy.

Our public defiecit is higher than the UK's and both our defecits are higher than Greece. Thatcher and her break up of the unions was the only thing that stopped Britain completely going down the sink after the IMF was brought in in the 70's. We need a Thatcher now cause the unions and public sector will bring this country to it's knees.

walrusgumble

the worring question is, how will fine gael (biggest haters of all things sinn fein) and Conversatives (apparently pledging again with UUP) deal with things? would you have belief with Enda?

Cowen and Browne don't seem too bothered about the north.

Sadly, as one said, violence is invetiable (ie Real IRA as oppose to the Provo's)

The sooner the economies get back on track, hopefully people will be too busy about improving their communities and making cross boarder co-operation inticing and unavoidable

ardmaj

Yixian wrote: »

I know this is mostly to do with politics north of the border but obviously there could be lots of implications for the south.

I'm sure you all know already but to put it briefly:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/8381484.stm

The DUP agreed a few years ago that at some point policing and justice would be devolved to Stormont from Westminster. The DUP had promised to agree on a date for this but a few months ago made a complete U-turn and now refuse to set a date, despite the British government pledging £1bn to fund the transfer, and are throwing lots of political hurdles in the way of Sinn Féin in order to ensure the devolution of D&P is "years away".

McGuinness a few weeks ago said that there would be "serious consequences" for the power sharing government if a deal isn't set before christmas, and the DUP have basically now ruled that out. Both parties have been in talks with the Irish and British governments, but nobody is budging.

The possibility is then that Sinn Féin/McGuinness will quit government, triggering an assembly election.

What makes this a "crisis" is that that election might not be clearly won by unionists:

In 2007, many hardline loyalists who refused to cooperate with Sinn Féin split from the DUP and formed the TUV. Ever since, the DUP have been competing with the TUV for far right unionists, alienating moderate Protestants in NI and splitting the unionist vote.

Conversely the % of native Irish catholics in NI has been increasing for about 20 years and is "supposed" to tip into an overall majority at some point in the first half of the 21st Century.

Either way, the nationalist vote is now less split than ever with Sinn Féin the "largest party in Northern Ireland".

So if an election is held, there's a pretty good chance that SF will win by a large margin, and maybe even... appoint a first minister.

Who would that first minister be? Martin McGuinness ofc. Do you think it helps that today McGuinness was showen to be the most popular minister in NI[url], by a Telegraph poll?

For all the empty words in the St Andrews Agreement that's not supposed to happen, NI was designed to be a mostly stable basket case that would remain de facto unionist forevermore.

I don't know enough about the various clauses in St Andrews about whether or not Sinn Féin could form a government without a unionist party, probably not, but simply having McGuinness as first minister would spell the end for NI in one way or another: either everybody quits Stormont and the entire political structure of NI collapses (not great timing considering the upsurge in RIRA activity) or the political tug of war for the first time shifts towards nationalism.



Actually in the event McGuinness won first minister, the most likely outcome would be political collapse, and who the hell knows what happens after that...

Any ideas?[/quote]
That seems to me, as a Co. Derry man who was in his last year at school when they introduced internment in 1971, as an astute and concise reading/summary of things political here. I can't improve on it. The DUP would dearly love to be sharing with SDLP but unionists had there chance in 1974 for that, and blew it spectacularly with that strike the same year, plunging 'their wee country 'to the point of irreversible infrastructural collapse. This is why nationalist voters are putting SF up to them. It's that or nothing.
Every time they refused a deal in the last 35 years, unionists have come back to the table to find less on it for them. And do they learn? NO.[/url]

getz

Yixian wrote: »

And let's not forget that the current situation is not a compromise. A compromise would be a Northern Ireland that is jointly a part of the UK and Ireland, or part of neither - as it stands NI is still solely part of the UK and so the unionists are already in a position of unfair advantage, and are unwilling to even let up an inch from that.

It will be their downfall.

i agree it will be a big problem for both sides [even the south] any future for northern ireland will be dependent on money from the rest of the UK,without it it would meen a collapse of the economy,mass unemployment[a large amount of them employed by the state]the republic has its own problems trying to meet its own EU commitments as the handouts have now stopped,when it comes down to the final furlong and both sides realize the implications,a agreement will be reached,