The "worst of all possible worlds": The deal between Government and the unions

nesf

The quote comes from Richard Bruton from the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/1202/1224259894318.html?digest=1

THE GOVERNMENT is set to modify plans to cut €1.3 billion from the public service pay bill next year in order to secure a deal with the public service unions.

The planned strike by over 250,000 public servants tomorrow has been called off following agreement to continue talks on unpaid leave next year as an alternative to cuts in pay rates.

Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan met trade union leaders yesterday morning and afterwards Mr Cowen briefed his Cabinet colleagues on the detail of the discussions.

Following approval by the Cabinet, officials were instructed to tell union leaders they were authorised to negotiate on unpaid leave as an alternative to cuts in pay rates.

In return the unions agreed to call off tomorrow’s planned strike. That decision was welcomed later by the Taoiseach who expressed the hope that progress could be made in the talks in the coming days.

The unions estimate that savings of over €800 million next year can be made through agreement on unpaid leave. The figure, which is considerably more than the estimate made by Department of Finance officials, falls well short of the €1.3 billion target of Mr Lenihan.

Government sources said last night that a crucial aspect of any deal would be an agreement on a longer-term programme to reduce the size of the public service.

Ministers believe that if the savings from unpaid leave can be augmented to bring the total close to €1 billion a deal can be done but officials involved in the talks are believed to be more sceptical.

The draft deal involves two stages, a 12-day unpaid leave scheme to produce savings next year and an overall transformation programme for the public service from 2011.

Fine Gael deputy leader and finance spokesman, Richard Bruton, last night described the deal as the worst of all possible worlds.

“They’ve bottled it. They had a chance to deliver real change and cost reductions in the public sector and they’ve blown it. This deal, if it turns out along the lines currently being described, represents the worst of all worlds.”

He said every public sector worker would lose the same proportion of their pay while customers would lose out through reduced services.

However, Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore welcomed the development. “For more than a month now I had been pressing for the opening of talks between the Government and the unions with a view to reaching a negotiated settlement on steps to reduce the overall public sector wage bill without cutting basic pay,” he said.

The draft agreement means Impact general secretary Peter McLoone and the other union negotiators have succeeded in convincing the Government that savings can be generated without cutting pay, introducing compulsory redundancies or changing pension arrangements.

However, at the same time serious questions remain about how the new plan will work. It is understood Government sources believe that the unpaid leave arrangement could save between €680 and €750 million. The unions put this figure at just over €800 million.

However, this remains far shy of the Government’s initial plan to cut the public sector pay and pension bill by €1.3 billion. As yet there is no indication as to how this gap will be filled and whether other measures are envisaged.

Union leaders and Government officials will today begin working on draft schemes for the operation of the 12-day unpaid leave arrangement.

Some sources have suggested that where it is not practical for staff to take 12 days’ unpaid leave next year, they would in effect be asked to work for nothing in 2010 with the leave being added to holidays at a later date, possibly over a three- to four-year period.

The Government decision to accept the plan came despite a breakdown in talks yesterday morning on the operation of the transformation programme in the health sector that would have involved the introduction of an 8am to 8pm core day.

I'm inclined to agree with the term "bottling it". Unpaid leave does not solve our problem and the gap between 1.3 billion and a very optimistic 800 million is huge.

force eleven

So - at the very best, 500 million will have to garnered from somewhere else. God help us. I hope the IMF come in very soon, how can you have public servants (government) dealing with public servants and expect a deal that the economy needs? They have fudged it and ultimately we all have to pay. :mad:

efb

FF courting LAB methinks? They'd have the maths...

Voltex

nesf wrote: »

The quote comes from Richard Bruton from the Irish Times:

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2009/1202/1224259894318.html?digest=1



I'm inclined to agree with the term "bottling it". Unpaid leave does not solve our problem and the gap between 1.3 billion and a very optimistic 800 million is huge.

We're Screwed!:mad:

gurramok

So a minority who probably represent less than 18% hold us all to ransom and the govt bottle it.

International investors who loan to this country must be looking on with horror at the lack of action to seriously tackle the wage bill.
"overall transformation programme for the public service from 2011." Whats this suppose to mean? Reform? I'd love to know how many billions per year that reform would save.

The govt will probably bottle it by Dec 9th 2010 too and we'll be horrified again this time next year.

€500m+, any ideas where this will made? Looks like the poor will get hit hardest by the unions selfishness.

FlutterinBantam

No other word for it, they bottled it.


In fact in my opinion made things worse.

The frikken cost of keeping track of this debacle will be huge and the PS will find a way of avoiding the financial hit.

Words fail me.

Nody

I'm honestly not overly surprised; we only need to look at how NAMA is structured in getting in he payments etc. to see clearly that this government's goal is to push as much ****e to next government (which they expect will not include FF) to deal with as possible. They can then ride in in the next election on the "See what a big mess they did; we're much better so come back to us again" flag and people will gobble it all down again.

I have to hand it to who ever in FF thought it up that it is a good plan; it even makes me tempted to vote for FF simply to let them have to deal with their own mess

silverharp

we are still in a world where where 2 wolves and a sheep are deciding whats for dinner!

davem75

A lack of leadership in this country.... we are held to ransdom by the unions.

I have taken a pay cut. I won't get an extra 12 days holidays this year. I'm expecting taxes to be increased in this budget.
Ah I could keep listing things.... as I'm so angry this morning reading the Irish Times and Irish Indo.

When will Irish People wake up. Why do we continue to suffer under these cretins.

Comments regarding Labour and FF in government. What will that do. The country will be broke and crippled.

Dickerty

I don't believe for one second that they are doing this to LOSE the next election. No party would do that. The current generation of young people will begin to vote now, and loyalty often makes people stick with their party over many years. You cannot throw away potential future voters like that.

Nody

Dickerty wrote: »

The current generation of young people will begin to vote now, and loyalty often makes people stick with their party over many years. You cannot throw away potential future voters like that.

Two reductions in dole for below 25s disagrees with you; the young are not an important category for parties; the elderly are because they are more likely to vote.

Dickerty

Nody wrote: »

Two reductions in dole for below 25s disagrees with you; the young are not an important category for parties; the elderly are because they are more likely to vote.

More likely to vote now. But you are talking about voting in 4 or 5 years when the next government have had a full term.

Don't give them a get-out...they really believe this is the best idea!

gandalf

Yep bottled it is the correct term alright. FF putting their interests ahead that of the country again by putting a sticking plaster on a wound that needs major surgery. They are leaving this issue to the next government showing again a total lack of leadership or commitment to the future of Ireland. Couple that with the fact that enforced unpaid leave like this will diminish front line services even more then the ordinary taxpayer is going to reap the pain of this short sighted and weak decision as usual.

With regard to the entry level PS workers how do they feel now that they are taking the same cuts as the bloated middle and upper management workers who they are now subsiding. Sounds like the unions have gotten them a "fair deal" alright.

Cowen is going to go down as the most ineffectual and useless FF Taoiseach that we have ever had. Given his competition that is an extremely low accolade indeed.

FF the party of bottlers, gougers, spoofers and in some cases criminals.

Rb

What will it take for the IMF to come in and take over?

Very disappointed at todays news.

Mr Magnolia

Bottled indeed. I can't wait to see the detail on this; unless we're going to pay for contract personnel to cover this time off it will mean less Gardai on the street, less nurses in the hospitals, less officials in the welfare offices and so on.

The Unions have dictated the layout of this major section of the budget. Crazy stuff. All the above and the fact that analysts reckon this 12 days unpaid leave will also represent a loss of 300/400 Million in Income tax.

hobochris

Rb wrote: »

What will it take for the IMF to come in and take over?

Very disappointed at todays news.

I don't think the ECB would allow it to get to that stage as it would devalue the euro heavily. Ireland could however be the first nation to be kicked out of the EU(not sure of the likely hood of this though).

Absurdum

Stupid, stupid deal. It'll probably cost more in the long run. Just cut the f---ing pay by 10% and get it over with.

spadder

"Dear Santa, I would really like IMF intervention, a US green card and a surprise."

edit: or a job in the PS

I look forward to the emergency budget in April that makes it 24 days unpaid and the budget next december that makes it 48 days unpaid.

Rb

hobochris wrote: »

I don't think the ECB would allow it to get to that stage as it would devalue the euro heavily. Ireland could however be the first nation to be kicked out of the EU(not sure of the likely hood of this though).

What I would give for Leadership with the cojones to follow through on their plan, I actually wish the EU would step in and take over at this stage, the current shower of fat, incompetent pricks have shown themselves to be as useful to the running of this country as my cat.

spadder wrote: »

"Dear Santa, I would really like IMF intervention, a US green card and a surprise."

Lol +1.

Dannyboy83

I think we are in very serious trouble now.

€ 74,970,702,263

Naz_st

I can't believe they bottled it yet again - especially after all the hard talking, and since it would seem the majority of public opinion is firmly on the side of paycuts (going by recent polls).

Analysis by Colm McCarthy (remember him? Don't think the government do...) on the Irish Economy blog also.

Ronan|Raven

For once I for some unknown reason felt the Government would have the balls to do what is needed to get the finances back in order, how wrong I was. I cannot believe at this absolute joke of a plan that is now being put forward. It's workability will already put some areas even more overstretched one would imagine such as Nursing and the Gardai.

It is looking like it will not reach the proposed amount needed to be saved. Where will the shortfall be made up or shall we go cap in hand to our loanmasters and ask for a bit more? I am sure anyone loaning to us is looking on in sheer disbelief at our seemingly apparent inability to get the finances under control.

I am just gobsmacked.

Ian Kavanagh

All I hear is moan moan moan from the private sector ... you / me voted these shower in time after time ... get up of your arses and do something about it. Anyone can post threads to complain - how many are wiling to demonstrate, attempt to change the political culture - until this is tackled we will continue to have goverments pander to vested interests - whether its banks, builders, farmers or public servents.

prendy

a few people on here have called for IMF intervention...i wonder do these people realise what that would involve and how serious that would be for the country?


I do think the Govt have bent over and lubed up for the unions yet again. This was Cowen's big chance to stand up to them. I'm really annoyed especially as this will mean everyone suffers a bit more in the budget.

jmayo

A prayer for Ireland:
Oh dear God please deliver us from these idiots and I might start going to mass again.


Watch the credit rating agencies reaction to this very Irish solution to the Irish budget deficit :mad:

FFS clowen had an opportunity to take on the unions, with the backing of a huge chunk of the population, including the clued in public sector workers.
Yet they bottle it.

Talk about gutless indecision and an abject failure to take a tough decision.
Oh wait they will take tough decisions, usually with the ones that don't sup at the same trough as themselves.

Watch the real vunerable, no not the long term unemployed gougers or the newly unemployed with huge mortgages, but the old and the carers of the old and the sick, suffer in the budget.


brian cowen, our supposed taoiseach and leader.
Go now before you consign us to becoming the new Iceland or the new Argentina.

eoinbn

hobochris wrote: »

I don't think the ECB would allow it to get to that stage as it would devalue the euro heavily. Ireland could however be the first nation to be kicked out of the EU(not sure of the likely hood of this though).

We are a very small fish in a big pond. The UK and US are actively devaluing their currency, so I don't see why the Euro zone would save us at all costs if just to stop the currency devaluing by 2-3%.
And why would they kick us out of the EU? The UK called in the IMF in the 1970's.

The cuts won't even cover the interest on the ~€25bn that we will be borrowing this year. I would love to know where they will get the next ~€15bn of adjustments when they are struggling to find €4bn this year.

djpbarry

hobochris wrote: »

I don't think the ECB would allow it to get to that stage as it would devalue the euro heavily. Ireland could however be the first nation to be kicked out of the EU...

Not sure about that – it might be possible for the EU to suspend funding (or at least threaten to - a precedent was set with Bulgaria last year). I can’t imagine other EU member states are too happy throwing their money into the black hole that is the Irish public finances.

Ian Kavanagh wrote: »

All I hear is moan moan moan from the private sector ... you / me voted these shower in time after time ...

I most certainly did not.

esharknz

I'm also very disappointed at the news today. It does look like they've given in to the unions.

Starting to get a bit annoyed at forever being asked to pay more, yet whenever I have to interact with the civil service, it tends to be a very painful process (e.g. my driving license debacle and being very rudely treated when they didn't schedule a test I'd PAID for).

Having worked in the public service overseas, the Irish civil service (specifically) is the biggest joke out. I mean some of the perks they get here are completely unheard of in other countries (e.g. bank time/christmas shopping leave).

About time we see some value for our money.

funnyname

How are they going to administer these unpaid days leave?

Will schools close for more holiday, will wards and operating theatres close for a couple of weeks, will parts of the country go without a Garda presence, will more prisoners be relased early because there isn't the manpower to keep an eye on them, more cases being adjuroned or worse struck out because it was scheduled for the day the Garda who was giving evidence was on unpaid leave, etc etc, etc.

Chaos I tells ya, CHAOS!!

They haven't a clue and the Goverment has just flushed us all down the toilet.

As somebody said earlier you do the math, FF and LAB as the next government!

Absurdum

esharknz wrote: »

I mean some of the perks they get here are completely unheard of in other countries (e.g. bank time/christmas shopping leave).

Unheard of here too.