The Weird, Wacky and Awesome World of the NFL - General Banter thread

TheFIFAking

Who do people think will be a surprise team for next season - not to the extent of the Chiefs last year - but some team that will over-perform?

SameOleJay

TheFIFAking wrote: »

Who do people think will be a surprise team for next season - not to the extent of the Chiefs last year - but some team that will over-perform?

The only team in the NFC who I'd be shocked to win 10 games are the Cowboys. Romo will need to be at his best for them to go 500, the defensive side of the roster is one of the worst I can remember seeing. I haven't looked at the AFC's schedules so can't really comment.

I'm always more interested in the tankings from the previous year. Chiefs and Panthers are probably the obvious candidates there.

Phoenix Park

TheFIFAking wrote: »

Who do people think will be a surprise team for next season - not to the extent of the Chiefs last year - but some team that will over-perform?

The Rams. Brutal division and depends on Bradford but that D is quality.

Bucs have a good D too, I think McCown should start and he's solid which should be enough to for them make the playoffs with the rest of their talent and lovie smith.

Outside bet for me as regards teams going the opposite way would be Seattle not to make the playoffs.

TheFIFAking

SameOleJay wrote: »

The only team in the NFC who I'd be shocked to win 10 games are the Cowboys. Romo will need to be at his best for them to go 500, the defensive side of the roster is one of the worst I can remember seeing. I haven't looked at the AFC's schedules so can't really comment.

I'm always more interested in the tankings from the previous year. Chiefs and Panthers are probably the obvious candidates there.

I was thinking maybe the Bucs could be good next year. Good run game and building a nice defence. Also a decent receiving corps. I'd be worried about the rumours around Glennon being traded though - might show that they don't believe in him

Being a fan, I think the Jets could be a surprise - a very solid team except for the QB and Oline (the most important positions I hear you say). I think they will again have one of the best defences in the league if their corner backs improve. Have also added some nice weapons in the run game and at wide receiver / TE.

Paully D

TheFIFAking wrote: »

Who do people think will be a surprise team for next season - not to the extent of the Chiefs last year - but some team that will over-perform?

I've got a few. Every year people say that there won't be the usual turnover among playoff teams and every single year it happens. This year will be no different.

1) Rams - Bradford was putting up excellent numbers before he went down to injury last season. He's finally been given help on both sides of the ball (though I feel they could have given him another WR) and for me, it will pay dividends. He's a good QB who just needed to be taken out of the David Carr-like situation the Rams had him in for years. Their defensive line is as good as it gets in the NFL, and the defense as a whole should be much better this year. They can be this seasons Cardinals for me. They won't have enough to break the Seahawks but they might sneak into the playoffs anyway, and who knows how all these 49ers looking for new contracts will effect them this season. It may allow the Rams to nip in there.

2) Buccaneers - Of course, nothing is won in free agency, but I really liked what the Buccaneers did there. Replacing Revis with Verner, while no doubt getting weaker, is an excellent replacement considering the money it saved. Dietrich-Smith, Johnson, McDonald all good additions too. Josh McCown has some big receivers to hit, very similar to in Chicago, and after having the leagues worst offense in 2013 that should be improved with six offensive players picked in the draft. I feel they've improved on both sides of the ball overall, and a few teams have gotten a bit of a new head coach bounce in recent seasons. Their division is nothing to write home about and they could easily win it IMO.

3) Jaguars - Bit of a longer shot than the other two of course, but I really like what the Jaguars are doing. Admittedly I'm not a fan of Bortles, but in a sense you've got to admire a staff that went out and took their man and will put their jobs on the line for him over the next few years. I'm a fan of Gus Bradley and what he is doing there, and it seemed something just clicked during the 2013 season and the Jaguars started to believe. Beadles, Gerhart, Hood, Bryant, all nice additions in FA. Whoever plays QB certainly has weapons with Lee, Robinson, it's just a shame that Blackmon seems to have vanished? I was a big fan of their free agency, their draft, and I like what their coaching staff seem to be doing. Add in that their division is very poor, with only the Colts having a QB, and I think they can surprise many and challenge for the AFC South.

matthew8

Of all the sub .500 teams I think the Texans (great defense and underperformed last year), Lions (quality passing game) and Falcons (again the passing game) have the best chance of making the playoffs. Washington also have all the tools on offense to recover.

helimachoptor

Hey folks does anyone know where i'd get peewee sized footballs?

Guffy

helimachoptor wrote: »

Hey folks does anyone know where i'd get peewee sized footballs?

I duno if u are looking for official sized pee wee or just small balls but elverys have very small kids balls. They are team balls though and pretty sure there are no titans ones

helimachoptor

gufc21 wrote: »

I duno if u are looking for official sized pee wee or just small balls but elverys have very small kids balls. They are team balls though and pretty sure there are no titans ones

yeah small kids balls (that sounds so wrong)

Cheers gufc will pop along and take a look

Paully D

helimachoptor wrote: »

yeah small kids balls

Reported.

:pac:

helimachoptor

Paully D wrote: »

Reported.

:pac:

damn you!

My company does sports days with kids and from what i gather there seems to be some interest in american football so as the foremost expert in my office i said i'd do it, not for a few months but i need to learn how to throw the ball so i dont embarrass myself :pac::pac:

Guffy

helimachoptor wrote: »

damn you!

My company does sports days with kids and from what i gather there seems to be some interest in american football so as the foremost expert in my office i said i'd do it, not for a few months but i need to learn how to throw the ball so i dont embarrass myself :pac::pac:

Depending on age we brought these balls into a scout troop. They were perfect for what we were doing anyway, having them throw and catch.. Guess they were in the 7-11 age.

helimachoptor

gufc21 wrote: »

Depending on age we brought these balls into a scout troop. They were perfect for what we were doing anyway, having them throw and catch.. Guess they were in the 7-11 age.

yep pretty much the same age so they should be perfect

JaMarcusHustle

So I drew some 8-bit NFL players today...

helimachoptor

No Titans.. ban him!

Innish_Rebel

JaMarcusHustle wrote: »

So I drew some 8-bit NFL players today...

I was about to ask why you had Hernandez for the pats... Now corrected!!!

Paully D

I don't have an ESPN Insider subscription myself, but those that do may find this interesting. It has received a lot of comment on social media etc and is written by Sam Monson, who I believe is Irish.

Tom Brady is no longer a top 5 QB

Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. The elite quarterback Mount Rushmore has been in place for a few years now, a comforting constant in an NFL of consistent turnover and change. But it might be time to wipe one of those four faces off our mountain of elite play. The Tom Brady of 2014 no longer belongs on that monument.

On the surface, this sounds crazy. Brady has been quarterback royalty since he burst onto the scene in 2001, at the start of his second year, when Drew Bledsoe went down. Since that season -- along with the Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP that it brought -- Brady has been a constant at the summit of elite quarterback play. He is a surefire Hall of Famer.

However, his decline is well underway, and it's showing up in one key aspect of his game in particular. Let's take a look at why Brady is no longer a top-five NFL QB, the QBs who should be ranked ahead of him, and what it means for the Patriots this season.

Feeling the heat

Pressure affects every quarterback. The difference between the best quarterbacks and those who just keep the seat warm for the next guy is how shallow the drop-off is between plays from a clean pocket and plays when they feel the pressure. The best quarterbacks are accurate on about 70 percent of passes under pressure (completion percentage adjusted for drops less throwaways, spikes, etc.). Manning had an accuracy rating of 69.0 percent in 2013, and at Brady's peak in 2010 he led the league with an accuracy rating of 70.7 percent on passes under pressure. Since then, however, he has been declining steadily. Last year he was accurate on just 57.6 percent of passes under pressure, 28th in the league.

To read the full analysis of why Tom Brady is no longer a top-five QB, you must be an ESPN Insider.

The below article from CBS Boston outlines much of the article for those that aren't an ESPN Insider:

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/06/02/tom-brady-not-a-top-five-nfl-quarterback-according-to-pro-football-focus-and-espn/

A few years ago, football analysis website Pro Football Focus shook the football world by claiming Tom Brady was the 33rd-best player in the NFL in 2010, the year that he became the first-ever unanimous NFL MVP. Now, PFF is sure to cause a similar reaction.

PFF’s Sam Monson wrote an article for ESPN.com (subscription required) which claimed that Brady is no longer a top-five quarterback in the NFL.
Before you start Gronk-spiking your computer, listen to what the man had to say.

“His decline is well underway, and it’s showing up in one key aspect to his game in particular,” Monson wrote.

Monson noted the following:

1.) Brady completed just 57.6 percent of his passes when pressured last year, which ranked 28th in the NFL. His PFF grade went from plus-33.2 in a clean pocket to minus-14.8 when pressured.
2.) Brady struggled to avoid pressure, taking twice as many sacks as Peyton Manning despite facing pressure just 10 percent more often.

Monson summarized his article thusly: “Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. He remains very good, but if the decline continues at the same rate, it won’t be long before that is no longer true.”

Such a statement is no doubt worthwhile, as it’s only natural for a quarterback to decline as he ages closer to 40. Yet saying that Brady is a worse quarterback than Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger borders on lunacy.

To be sure, the folks at PFF do their hard work. They grade every single player on every single snap, and they draw conclusions based on their grades.

They’ll tell you that it’s a system that is meant to provide information based on data, and statements like “Brady’s no longer a top-five QB” are based in the numbers.

PFF does a lot of great work. I’m just not entirely sure this article is part of it.
There are a number of factors involved, including some which the author admits himself. For one, the offensive line was abysmal by Patriots standards in 2013, as the “unit posted its worst pass-blocking efficiency figure (a measure of the sacks, hits and hurries surrendered per pass-protecting snaps) since PFF has been grading tape.”

But the bigger issue is Brady’s lack of receiving options. In the brief time that Rob Gronkowski was healthy in 2013, the Patriots had a top-three offense in nearly every possible category. In the other nine games, they were middle-of-the-pack or flat-out below average. That’s because the passing offense leaned almost entirely on Julian Edelman, who is solid but at 5-foot-10 is not the type of player who can get open as often as the elite receivers do.

With 104 receptions on the year, Edelman nearly doubled up the second-leading receiver on the team in Danny Amendola, who himself is also a solid receiver but fought through a series of injuries throughout the season.

Monson’s own argument helps illustrate this counterpoint.

“When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters,” Monson wrote. “His passer rating on those throws was 69.2, worse than all but a handful of replacement-level starters.”

In a vacuum, those numbers look bad. But might the reason for his holding onto the ball for more than 2.6 seconds and his inability to complete passes on such plays be that he had nobody getting open? Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins were rookies and were learning what life in the NFL is like, and with no real receiving option at tight end, Brady was often left on an island with few options.

Monson entertains the possibility that Andrew Luck can surpass Brady on the list of best QBs, so long as “the Indianapolis Colts can give him a little more help.” So in this argument, Luck is allowed to depend on help in order to be great, but Brady must do it all on his own.

There’s also the fact that the Patriots built their offense as a system that relied upon two dynamic tight ends. There was Gronkowski, the behemoth who could catch any ball in any coverage, and there was Aaron Hernandez, the shifty tight end/receiver hybrid whose escapability was unparalleled.

From 2010-12, 33.5 percent of Brady’s completions and 34.9 percent of his passing yards went to tight ends. In 2013, with Hernandez in prison and Gronkowski on the operating table for half the year, just 13.9 percent of Brady’s passes went to tight ends, who accounted for just 17.1 percent of his passing yards.

The entire foundation of the inside-out Patriots offense was taken out, leaving Brady and a band of undersized or inexperienced outside receivers to try to figure it out on the fly.

Add it all up, and you’ve got Brady, one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, throwing passes to Matthew Mulligan and Matthew Slater in the AFC Championship Game. That’s hardly a recipe for success. To say the Patriots did not set up Brady with the best environment to succeed in 2013 would be a gross understatement.

Still, anyone who watched knows that Brady did not play up to his own standards last year. His completion percentage, yards and touchdowns all went down, and his interceptions and sacks went up. Can the Patriots win a Super Bowl with Brady playing at that same level? No, probably not. The team is built based on the belief that Brady will be nearly flawless, so when he’s anything short of excellent, the team is going to struggle.

Brady clearly declined last year, but the drop in performance isn’t all about age. Brady’s in excellent shape, he delivers passes with the same velocity he always has, and he’s never been a quarterback who relied on anything more than a quick shuffle step to avoid a rush.

If Peyton Manning can set NFL records at 37 years old, so too can Brady. It’s not about age — it’s about a system that works. And the Patriots did not have that in 2013.

If the Patriots want to contend for a championship in 2014, they’ll need better (and healthier) receiving options, a stronger offensive line, and improved play from Brady.

Clearly, Peyton Manning was the best QB in the game last year, and Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees were their typically excellent selves. But suggesting that a team has a better chance of winning it all with Rivers instead of Brady? That’s a tough sell. It’s going to take a few more numbers than the ones provided to believe that’s actually the case.

Vandango

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Since that crap is specifically about one player and one team, why is it posted here and not in the Pats team thread?

Realt Dearg Sec

Vandango wrote: »

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Since that crap is specifically about one player and one team, why is it posted here and not in the Pats team thread?

Maybe, but it's hardly 'crap'. It might be an interesting discussion about probably the game's most high profile player, so it's hardly beyond belief non-Pats fans might be interested in it, who wouldn't necessarily read the Pats thread regularly.

Of course, it's not a patch on all the brilliant posts you've put up on the AF forum over the years...oh wait...

Putin

Realt Dearg Sec wrote: »

so it's hardly beyond belief non-Pats fans might be interested in it, who wouldn't necessarily read the Pats thread regularly.

I doubt that, the Pats thread is probably the most lurked in thread in the forum.

Realt Dearg Sec

Putin wrote: »

I doubt that, the Pats thread is probably the most lurked in thread in the forum.

Well, I never read it, but I'm always interested in a 'hate-on-Brady' discussion to kill a bit of the off-season (I hate all millionaires doing their dream job with super-hot girlfriends, so we can have a 'hate-on-Ashton Kutchener' thread otherwise)...just that the previous post to mine seemed kind of uneccessarily hostile.

Knex*

Never look in the Pats forum myself, tbh. Found the article interesting, if nothing else. Paully not being a Pats fan himself is another reason why he might have post it here.

Bit of a ridiculous attack on a good contributor, nonetheless.

Paully D

Vandango wrote: »

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Since that crap is specifically about one player and one team, why is it posted here and not in the Pats team thread?

Jesus wept :pac:

There's a couple of reasons I didn't post it in the Patriots thread:

1) Whenever I look in there the discussion seems to focus a lot on Brady, with a fair amount of trolling/flaming posts on the subject too. I figured that most of their fans would rather stick pins in their eyes than have another discussion about Brady at this stage.

2) I presumed it may be a topic that would interest others that don't frequent the Patriots thread and could stimulate some discussion. It was also written by an Irish journalist who seems to be doing well in the business which may interest people outside of the Patriots thread too.

HigginsJ

My respect for Brady grew massively last year. Considering the Hernandez situation, perma crocked Gronk & a less than stellar WR corp, to produce the season he did was outstanding. I would have him with Brees & Peyton in a group behind Aaron Rodgers.

nerd69

Vandango wrote: »

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

Since that crap is specifically about one player and one team, why is it posted here and not in the Pats team thread?

nice first post in the forum is attaching someone because you feel the forum should be run differently :rolleyes:

Paully D

Team spending on WR's:



Horrific expenditure from the Dolphins in terms of what they are actually getting, absolutely horrific.

Knex*

Double Chicago's expenditure, half their talent :pac:

raze_them_all_

Paully D wrote: »

Team spending on WR's:



Horrific expenditure from the Dolphins in terms of what they are actually getting, absolutely horrific.

yeah but those packers though

HigginsJ

Paully D wrote: »

Team spending on WR's:



Horrific expenditure from the Dolphins in terms of what they are actually getting, absolutely horrific.

Post crap like that in the Dolphins tread!!

On a serious note I'm surprised to see the Hawks WR's expenditure is that high

HigginsJ

Knex. wrote: »

Double Chicago's expenditure, half their talent :pac:

Being very generous to the Fins there