The Weird, Wacky and Awesome World of the NFL - General Banter thread

Podge_irl

Chucky the tree wrote: »

The big test will be how well the 49ers(ad Seahawks) cope with having to pay their star QB's top dollar. I've not been hugely impressed with either Kap or Watson as QB's. They've been solid but I question whether they can carry a team themselves over a season.

I'm worried. One of Crabtree or (more likely) Smith will surely go now? It's too big a contract for what is ultimately still an unproven QB.

I blame Flacco!

padraig_f

While it looks excessive (and may still be), I think it's a function of the salary cap going up. Up $10m this year ($123m to $133m), and projected to be a further $10m the following year. That's up 16% in the space of two seasons, so you expect player salaries to rise accordingly. Elite QB money is probably $25m now, not the $20m that Brees set a couple of years ago.

So comparing Kaep's number to Aaron Rodgers' $20m isn't the same, that was signed at a lower overall cap amount. As a Bears fan I'm feeling better about Cutler's contract signed earlier this year (about $18m/year). Looking at Kaepernick's contract, I think the Bears were quite smart to sign Cutler up quickly and not franchise-tag him for a year, as many thought was likely.

As Adam Schefter says:

"Colin Kaepernick deal will impact potential deals for Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Alex Smith this year; Luck, RGIII, Russell Wilson next year."

Would've driven up Cutler's price-tag had the Bears waited too.

adrian522

It's 7 years including 2014, so maxing out at $18m, which to me is not too bad, if we wait a year we likely need to pay him more and probably franchise him next season as you won't have time to get a deal done prior to free agency.

SameOleJay

He's not close to worth that but really what could they do? It's incredible that no middle ground is there in the quarterback market but that's the way it is and San Fran have paid accordingly.

Indy better hope they draft well because Luck is gonna smash the record before long.

SameOleJay

adrian522 wrote: »

It's 7 years including 2014, so maxing out at $18m, which to me is not too bad, if we wait a year we likely need to pay him more and probably franchise him next season as you won't have time to get a deal done prior to free agency.

It's 20+ in fairness... You can't ignore the scrapping of the existing deal.

adrian522

Explain that to me? Will he play out the final year of his rookie deal at <$1m

if 2014 is part of the deal it is 7 years (i.e a 6 year extension)

raze_them_all_

adrian522 wrote: »

Explain that to me? Will he play out the final year of his rookie deal at <$1m

if 2014 is part of the deal it is 7 years (i.e a 6 year extension)

nope it'll be like when hernandez signed his deal early, contract is new afaik, so big money from now

adrian522

But it takes him up until 2020, so its seven years, or 18 per year. If it was just for 6 years it would be to 2019.

SameOleJay

The old deal is scrapped. What I mean is he was contracted for peanuts in 2014 and so this in real terms is a 6 year extension.


The reality is, as alluded to, that this deal will probably look just fine in a few years. The CBA and ever increasing cap will dictate that. I wonder who will be the next 10 mill a year guy though?

Son Of A Vidic

Chucky the tree wrote: »

The big test will be how well the 49ers(ad Seahawks) cope with having to pay their star QB's top dollar. I've not been hugely impressed with either Kap or Watson as QB's. They've been solid but I question whether they can carry a team themselves over a season.

I share you view on Kap & Wilson. When I remove the NFL Network hype and nonsense, I wouldn't want either of them as my franchise QB because they haven't really impressed me. Then Kap gets a €100 million dollar contract and I find myself asking what for?

adrian522

Well given the contracts given to Romo, Flacco and Cutler you shouldn't be surprised at all really. Better and younger than any of those guys.

You'll see similar with Newton, Luck, RG3, Dalton etc.

Pretty much any franchise QB is going to get this sort of money if the franchise has any sort of faith in them.

Paully D

I hope the Bengals do it because it would completely handcuff them to a guy that is never going to get it done for them, but if they give Dalton the reported $18m per that he is looking for then they will have made a monstrous mistake.

A second-tier QB market really needs to develop, but it's not going to happen, is it? Starting QB's now will be either paid franchise money regardless of talent or are on a rookie deal. There's no in-between. It's a horrible market for teams to manage.

Hulk Hands

Guys I got an ESPN Insider account for the draft. Have any of you had experience trying to cancel it? Ridiculous if I have to ring a US number to cancel it, and probably be on hold for 20 mins. Cant find anything else on their site though

adrian522

Paully D wrote: »

I hope the Bengals do it because it would completely handcuff them to a guy that is never going to get it done for them, but if they give Dalton the reported $18m per that he is looking for then they will have made a monstrous mistake.

A second-tier QB market really needs to develop, but it's not going to happen, is it? Starting QB's now will be either paid franchise money regardless of talent or are on a rookie deal. There's no in-between. It's a horrible market for teams to manage.

The problem is there are more teams than are starting caliber quarterbacks, hence when you get one you have to overpay or else take your chances in the draft again.

helimachoptor

Agree, Presuming Locker stays healthy this year and has a decent season (8-8) i think he gets 8-10 a season. Given he stayed in college when he was regarded as the overall#1 in the draft to finish his education i think he takes that.

The Titans could have easily given up on him, he'll repay that and take a much lower deal (while also knowing Mettenberger is waiting)

Paully D

adrian522 wrote: »

The problem is there are more teams than are starting caliber quarterbacks, hence when you get one you have to overpay or else take your chances in the draft again.

Yeah, I agree. That's why, despite the money being ridiculous, the Ravens had little choice but to keep Flacco. It was either overpay for a guy who had proven he could win in the playoffs or go back to square one with the Kyle Boller/Jeff Blake/Elvis Grbac/Anthony Wright uncertainty at the position again.

Though the way QB money seems to be going, shortly it may nearly make as much sense to draft a QB every year hoping to hit on one and dispensing with the current rookie playing the position after his rookie deal, while investing the $20m+ saved, on other positions. :pac:

UnitedIrishman

helimachoptor wrote: »

Agree, Presuming Locker stays healthy this year and has a decent season (8-8) i think he gets 8-10 a season. Given he stayed in college when he was regarded as the overall#1 in the draft to finish his education i think he takes that.

The Titans could have easily given up on him, he'll repay that and take a much lower deal (while also knowing Mettenberger is waiting)

I like him as a QB and I think this is last chance saloon with him in terms of reliability and staying healthy. Mettenberger was a bargain pick in the draft too IMO, really think he has a lot of potential. Just noticed ye have Tyler Wilson as your fourth QB, wasn't he highly rated in college before failing miserably at the Raiders?

Neil3030

Paully D wrote: »

Yeah, I agree. That's why, despite the money being ridiculous, the Ravens had little choice but to keep Flacco. It was either overpay for a guy who had proven he could win in the playoffs or go back to square one with the Kyle Boller/Jeff Blake/Elvis Grbac/Anthony Wright uncertainty at the position again.

Though the way QB money seems to be going, shortly it may nearly make as much sense to draft a QB every year hoping to hit on one and dispensing with the current rookie playing the position after his rookie deal, while investing the $20m+ saved, on other positions. :pac:

Was going to say something almost identical in response to your post above about the present situation creating an environment of rookie v franchise QB and no room between.

I think smart teams will follow a mutation of the Seahawks model under Carroll/Schneider. Invest heavily in the defence and follow a very low-risk, run-heavy offensive gameplan.

The role of the QB can therefore be refined to suit a rookie, allowing a cohort of ambitious youngsters to be put together relatively cheaply. That extra cash goes straight back into the defence.

A really small part of me wonders if the Seahawks will eschew renewing Wilson's contract next year, for this very reason...

raze_them_all_

Neil3030 wrote: »

Was going to say something almost identical in response to your post above about the present situation creating an environment of rookie v franchise QB and no room between.

I think smart teams will follow a mutation of the Seahawks model under Carroll/Schneider. Invest heavily in the defence and follow a very low-risk, run-heavy offensive gameplan.

The role of the QB can therefore be refined to suit a rookie, allowing a cohort of ambitious youngsters to be put together relatively cheaply. That extra cash goes straight back into the defence.

A really small part of me wonders if the Seahawks will eschew renewing Wilson's contract next year, for this very reason...

any team that doesnt renew a sb winning qbs contract 1 year after the fact would be committing football suicide

Son Of A Vidic

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

any team that doesnt renew a sb winning qbs contract 1 year after the fact would be committing football suicide

Football suicide? Russell Wilson didn't win the Superbowl for the Seahawks. The Seahawks, namely their fabulous defense won the Superbowl, not Russell Wilson.

mikemac1

raze_them_all_ wrote: »

any team that doesnt renew a sb winning qbs contract 1 year after the fact would be committing football suicide

The Ravens cut Trent Dilfer after he was starting QB and won the Superbowl :pac:

adrian522

Paully D wrote: »

Kaepernick is someone I wouldn't be 100% sold on as things stand. He had a great impact when he first came on the scene, but last year, while the 49ers did well, I wasn't overly impressed with him. I feel this year will tell us a lot and for that reason, if I'm the 49ers I think I'd have given it another season before doing the deal. They wouldn't have had a whole lot to lose. If he wins the Super Bowl in 2014-2015, then he wouldn't command a whole lot more than what they've given now. Worst case scenario, they see a season that tells them he may not be their guy. It's the sort of deal I'd be happy to give him this time next year if he has a cracking season, but not at the minute. Just my opinion. I'm intrigued to see how this deal looks in a few years time.

Just coming back to this as more details emerge.

The salary for year one is minimal (in fact less than his current deal would have given him $645,000).

There is $12m signing bonus split out over the term of the contract. So $2m per year.

Cap hit in year 1 is less than $3m.

The guaranteed number each year only becomes fully guaranteed on April 1st each year so if SF wanted to cut their losses they can do so without costing them the future of the franchise.

The rest of the seasons work out at:

2015: $12.4m
2016: $13.9m
2017: $16.5m
2018: $17m

For 2019 and 2020 the salary is not guaranteed and the numbers are $18.8m and $21m but you would have to feel those years will not be played out.

All in all it looks like a pretty good deal for San Francisco.

If they let him play his rookie deal then tagged him they would be on the hook for more in years one and 2 I think.

There are also "de-escalators" from 2015 to 2020, potentially $2m per year unless Kap appears in a superbowl or is named all pro in any one of those years.

Complicated stuff.

padraig_f

A bit more detail here:
The full Kaepernick contract details

Very interesting contract, and I think looks a good one for SF. Can walk away at any point, will save money if he doesn't hit those difficult $2m bonuses (Super Bowl appearance or all-pro).

You could virtually subtract $2m from most of these yearly figures.

The base salary for 2015 is $12.4 million, guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2015.

For 2016, the base salary is $13.9 million, guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2016.

For 2017, the base salary is $16.5 million, guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2017.

For 2018, the base salary is $17 million, $5.2 million of which is guaranteed for injury only until April 1, 2018.

The non-guaranteed base salary for 2019 is $18.8 million, and the non-guaranteed base salary for 2020 is $21 million.

"Either way, only $13.073 million is guaranteed at signing. It comes in the form of a $12.328 million signing bonus, a base salary of $645,000, and a workout bonus of $100,000."

glued

That's actually a pretty decent deal for San Fran. If they franchise him next year then Kaepernick has all the leverage. They're not going to let him walk either.

Paully D

Very interesting deal, thanks to Adrian and Padraig for breaking it down.

The most important part IMO would be the ability to move on at any year if the 49ers so decide, and that's a clause I think the vast majority of teams would love to have in their QB contracts. Fair play to San Francisco, they hold virtually all the cards with this deal.

Padraig's link says that another way Kaepernick can halt the de-escalation of the salary is by taking 80% of the snaps. Injury aside, that should happen if he's the starter, he took 97.3% this past season for example, so that extra $2m would be very likely not to come off the base salary IMO.

It looks a good, cap friendly deal and encourages continuous improvement from Kaepernick. I'm still unsure if Kaepernick will be their franchise guy, the contract looking better doesn't change that, but I think it's safe to say the $126m for 6 years with $61m guaranteed (which is technically true) was just bluster from agents trying to make the deal appear better for their guy than it actually is, but it is also a significant improvement for Kaepernick considering he only would have around $950,000 left to make on his rookie deal.

padraig_f

padraig_f wrote: »

You could virtually subtract $2m from most of these yearly figures.

I read this slightly wrong. It's like a $12m pot that goes down $2m every year he fails to hit the target. So if the 49ers reached a Super Bowl this season or Kaepernick made all-pro, that $12m would be locked in. If he doesn't, it goes to $10m.

I initially thought it was evaluated every year.

Still think it's a good deal, very hard to make all-pro (top 2 QB), and at 4/1 to win the NFC, the bookies give the 49ers about a 20% chance of making the Super Bowl this year.

adrian522

Paully D wrote: »

Very interesting deal, thanks to Adrian and Padraig for breaking it down.

The most important part IMO would be the ability to move on at any year if the 49ers so decide, and that's a clause I think the vast majority of teams would love to have in their QB contracts. Fair play to San Francisco, they hold virtually all the cards with this deal.

Padraig's link says that another way Kaepernick can halt the de-escalation of the salary is by taking 80% of the snaps. Injury aside, that should happen if he's the starter, he took 97.3% this past season for example, so that extra $2m would be very likely not to come off the base salary IMO.

It looks a good, cap friendly deal and encourages continuous improvement from Kaepernick. I'm still unsure if Kaepernick will be their franchise guy, the contract looking better doesn't change that, but I think it's safe to say the $126m for 6 years with $61m guaranteed (which is technically true) was just bluster from agents trying to make the deal appear better for their guy than it actually is, but it is also a significant improvement for Kaepernick considering he only would have around $950,000 left to make on his rookie deal.

He needs to take 80% of the snaps AND hit one of the other 2 conditions (Superbowl or all pro).

i.e If Gabbert comes in and wins a superbowl next year that doesn't help Kaepernick.

Molly

This is awesome (unless one of them ends up out for the season because of it)

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2014/6/5/5782808/the-san-diego-chargers-softball-team

raze_them_all_

Reading that wilson and Andrew luck wil be looking for 24-25 million next year, If that happens I will be amazed, whatever about Luck, but wilson...no chance

Paully D

Molly wrote: »

This is awesome (unless one of them ends up out for the season because of it)

http://www.boltsfromtheblue.com/2014/6/5/5782808/the-san-diego-chargers-softball-team

That is really cool. Rivers' disguise :pac: