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Wintry potential December 09

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    #272
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    munsterlegend wrote: »
    seems to me like the uk will get a big hit in eastern parts? will it spread west to effect us at all?

    UK would get the most of it but we would get our own showers once that cold air makes it way over the Irish Sea.


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    #273
    yansnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 38 ✭yansnow


    it will b cold alrite by next sun night the whole country the thing now is precipitation mostly confined in the eastern and northern areas.as for snow i would say first snow flurries maybe monday night or tuesday.


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    #274
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z GFS is fine within the reliable timeframe, a slight unpgrade for early next week, but after that it isn't too exciting...


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    #275
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    maquiladora wrote: »
    12Z GFS is fine within the reliable timeframe, a slight unpgrade for early next week, but after that it isn't too exciting...

    Yeah I see that the GFS is still having trouble getting to grips with things after wed/thur but that could all change with the 18z


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    #276
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Snowmageddon on the cards for Monday on the east coast if the 00z is to be believed....exciting times...

    2009121000H108_UK00_850.gif

    2009121000H108_UK00_SFC.gif

    [edit]doh..thats the 00z![/edit]
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #277
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    rain always spread from west to east?! any chance the reverse can happen with the snow? have a bad feeling us in the west will be watching with envy at our eastern breathern like earlier this year.


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    #278
    forkassed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 311 ✭✭forkassed


    http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=michaelfish;sess=


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    #279
    peasant
    Registered Users Posts: 17,819 ✭✭✭✭peasant


    Min wrote: »
    Metcheck is funny, for next wednesday, show showers with winds blowing at 335mph gusting to 402mph, must be a part Jupiter weather forecast thrown in there.
    maquiladora wrote: »
    :D

    Metcheck I find is usually very inaccurate even without obvious errors like that.

    to illustrate:


    98591.JPG


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    #280
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    12Z ECM and GFS not in agreement at 120hr...


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    #281
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    UKMO 12z keeps it cool and crisp at 120hrs to 144hrs:

    Rukm1441-2.gif


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    #282
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Oh i have a big headache and it seems the models are reaching for the aspirin too.

    i feel like not looking at another run till monday.(Not gonna happen).

    Well at least we know it is going to get cold.

    Alot has to fall right however to get any chance of an epic snow event
    (Of which i can NOT see happening at the moment but fingers crossed)

    Wintry showers(some prolonged) will effect eastern regions as the colder 850 temps progress over the irish sea to us.


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    #283
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Oh dear, a poor 12Z ECM run....The High doesnt move up, hangs around and then sinks.

    Totally different to the GFS and UKMO.... :(


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    #284
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    looks like its all falling apart fast (this happens most of the time), thankfully I did'nt warn anyone of snow next week. Still some cool dry and sunny weather for the next week will be a very welcome change from all this rain.


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    #285
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    ECM is disgraceful for any precip with the high making a home for itself around ireland but im counting on it to move nw to give a more unstable easterly flow later.(Alot of finger crossing going on now:o)


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    #286
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    ECM seems a bit odd to me, but disappointing all the same. Hopes on that Arctic Canadian High in the 168hrs range will suck in our rapidly sinking high and spur on a real Arctic blast.

    Meanwhile, here is the 240hr chart:

    Recm2401.gif
    God damn :rolleyes:


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    #287
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I'm glad I didn't get my ticket for the rollercoaster...:pac:

    Having said that, all hope is not lost, GFS and UKMO are both looking good and we haven't seen the ECM ensembles from this run yet.

    Hopefully the 18Z GFS will cheer us up a bit tonight.


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    #288
    Supercell
    Registered Users Posts: 15,431 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Ecm is horrible, anticyclonic gloom for the east, the west might have nice crisp clear days though.

    The ECM evolution does look the most rational right now i have to say, but more runs needed.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



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    #289
    roryc1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 292 ✭✭roryc1


    Hey lads don't loose faith just yet, its just the ecm that is not playing ball, gfs and ukmo are still on board and the ecm has been the most unreliable of them all
    over the last few days

    And met eireann forecast at six didn't say snow once, which is always a good sign ;)


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    #290
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    I normally wouldn't say this but i think ECM is pants at the moment because the teleconnections say so.

    A very strong negative AO meaning greenland high.

    Im a bit stumped to me honest.


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    #291
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Rougies


    98608.jpg

    At least there was no queue and I can see some snow on the mountain tops from up here :(


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    #292
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Rougies wrote: »
    98608.jpg

    At least there was no queue and I can see some snow on the mountain tops from up here :(


    LOL :) hows Lucan looking from up there?


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    #293
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Jake1 wrote: »
    LOL :) hows Lucan looking from up there?

    You don't want to know.
    Btw, you should really close your curtains before doing that!


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    #294
    patneve
    Closed Accounts Posts: 260 ✭✭patneve


    I am not at all sad about the runs that came out today. What is important is that the TREND is set: the next two weeks are certainly going to be frosty and cold and there is good potential for some snowfalls.

    Enough said.:cool:


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    #295
    Rougies
    Registered Users Posts: 2,677 ✭✭✭Rougies


    True. Maybe the 18z will cheer me up.


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    #296
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    8 to 14 Day 500mb OutlookValid: December 18 2009 to December 24 2009
    Updated: 10 Dec 2009    814day.03.gif


    THIS shows beautiful greenland high so what the hell is going on people.


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    #297
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    Nice chart. ECM 500's don't seem to be so keen though:

    msl_uv850_z500%21Geopotential%20500%20hPa%21192%21Europe%21pop%21od%21oper%21public_plots%212009121012%21%21chart.gif

    Either the ECM has latched onto something or this evening's run is a massive outlier. All eyes on the 18z and 00hr runs tomorrow. :o


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    #298
    nacho libre
    Registered Users Posts: 16,851 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Oh dear, a poor 12Z ECM run....The High doesnt move up, hangs around and then sinks.

    Totally different to the GFS and UKMO.... :(

    yes and unfortunately the ecm seems to get it right more often than the GFS.
    Ah well having being here so many times before i was expecting a downgrade, but still it's disappointing


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    #299
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    forecast_2_nh.gif





    ao.sprd2.gif






    nao.sprd2.gif





    Well with these teleconnections all favouring blocking im gonna sit back now for a while and just see what pans out.


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    #300
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    NOAA favors the GFS over the ECM today :)

    18Z rolling out soon, hope it's a good one.


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    #301
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,910 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    While the downgrades have been very dissapointing, I never believed in the original fantasy chart snowstorm scenario or this downgrade, anything can happen yet all this stuff is still a week away which is a long time, only when something comes within a 24 hour timeframe I get excited and if it doesnt work out then the real dissapointment hits, no loss's so far really as everything was so far away. Let's just wait and see what happens, by next sunday we'll know more how everything will play out.


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