Wintry potential December 09

pauldry

Earlier I typed Christmas will be wet

I was offline for a few hours but when I returned I realised the error of my ways.

People responded saying "may" would have been a better word to use.

Yer right. It may be wet. Apologies.

Hope snow comes next week for a few days before xmas anyways just for excitement. Hard frosts n fog n frozen white tree branches will mean at least I can take photos and make xmas cards instead of buying them :pac:

btw metcheck what planet is that forecast for?

nacho libre

nick2702:
I reckon that this will end up being a damp squib. When the ECM starts to lower the possibility of a decent wintry spell then 99% of the time the other models will follow. Wouldn't be surprised if the UKMO backtracked tomorrow, leaving the GFS all on its own - something we have seen far too many times in the recent past.

rare to see such posts on netweather, but i fear he is right:(

maquiladora

Cold air seems to be moving west a little faster in the 18Z...everything else looks kinda similar so far...

Snow showers as early as Sunday evening in SE UK possible on this run.

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

Cold air seems to be moving west a little faster in the 18Z...everything else looks kinda similar so far...

Snow showers as early as Sunday evening in SE UK possible on this run.

So would this mean its looking good for us again, maquiladora?

(please say yes, please say yes, please say yes ..):D

maquiladora

Jake1 wrote: »

So would this mean its looking good for us again, maquiladora?

(please say yes, please say yes, please say yes ..):D

Only out as far as Tuesday so far, this run would bring snow flurries/showers to the east Monday night. No idea what the days ahead look like yet though...

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Only out as far as Tuesday so far, this run would bring snow flurries/showers to the east Monday night. No idea what the days ahead look like yet though...

watching the rte weather after the news had it cold but dry for much of next week! surprised he committed himself so early given the uncertainty.

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote: »

Only out as far as Tuesday so far, this run would bring snow flurries/showers to the east Monday night. No idea what the days ahead look like yet though...

Possibly but with min temps of 5C and dp above zero it'd be fairly marginal stuff..it was always actually a bit marginal and the slight downgrade has made snow on the east coast a lot less likely imo until later on in the week/if at all...

its a good enough start for me

Trogdor

That's a stunner of a chart whether it brings cold in the end of the run or not
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn1381.png

maquiladora

18Z GFS run is much better than the 12Z so far. Brings us colder air and better snow prospects for later in the week.

maquiladora

Btw, there is a suggestion form a Dutch guy on one of the weather forums that the ECM run may be dodgy due to missing some data.

True or not, the GFS hasnt trended towards the ECM....yet.... :pac:

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z GFS run is much better than the 12Z so far. Brings us colder air and better snow prospects for later in the week.

Yep, the GFS is back on track. Lets hope the ECM follows suit tomorrow, then I will start to believe!

Elmo5

Just saw the sky news active long range forecast. Shows sleety/snow showers moving into the eastern UK on Monday ......

Elmer Blooker

I'm afraid all we're in for is a frosty spell that will last a few days, after that a large anticyclone will stagnate right on top of us resulting in the dreaded anticyclonic gloom.
The weather is a bit like supporting the Ireland soccer team isn't it? - you live in hope always expecting something and just when things are looking good everything is snatched from under your nose and all you get is ultimate failure, feeling cheated and depressed!
enough said

maquiladora

Nice GFS ensembles too.

Control and mean runs showing -5 850 temps even up to Xmas day. :pac:

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

Nice GFS ensembles too.

Control and mean runs showing -5 850 temps even up to Xmas day. :pac:

This truly is a roller coaster ride, were up down up down and up again, Hopefully the loop the loop will bring the precious snow !!!

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Nice GFS ensembles too.

Control and mean runs showing -5 850 temps even up to Xmas day. :pac:

Potential hanging on by an ever unwinding thread. I am dreading the UKMO and ECM runs tomorrow. So could someone do it for me and say it is all very, very good! :pac:

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The weather is a bit like supporting the Ireland soccer team isn't it? - you live in hope always expecting something and just when things are looking good everything is snatched from under your nose and all you get is ultimate failure, feeling cheated and depressed!
enough said

Were you getting carried away in the Stade de France too? I was and when i saw the glorious charts yesterday i was thinking the exact same thing as you; if it's seems too good to be true that's because it is!:(

pistolpetes11

Crikey , how would Ireland cope with a snow storm like there having in parts of the states , 17 dead and nearly 20 inches of snow has fallen !

http://abcnews.go.com/m/screen?id=9295833

maquiladora

0Z GFS very similar in the reliable timeframe, showing -5 uppers coming into the SE around midday Monday, just 84 hours out, so some snow showers/flurries still looking likely Monday night on hills and on the east coast. This run also points towards a snow event for the east/south later in the week. :pac:

maquiladora

0Z UKMO 144 chart looks more like the GFS than ECM. So far so good...

Deep Easterly

Yep Maq, set the clock early so I could have a sneak preview at this morning's runs, that is how mad I am!

UKMO at 144hrs:



Could be a slight snow flurry risk in the SE going by that chart alone. But more importantly, it keeps the cold and could be very cold in places by night, and increasingly by day.

ECM rolling out in the next 30mins.

Hankys at the ready, just in case!

maquiladora

:P I have an early start myself this morning, hard to resist not checking...

GFS P run is great too, keeps us cold for the entire run, at times very cold.

Yeah all eyes on the ECM now...

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

:P I have an early start myself this morning, hard to resist not checking...

GFS P run is great too, keeps us cold for the entire run, at times very cold.

Yeah all eyes on the ECM now...

DWD 00z run similar to UKMO so far:



Tense times! :pac:

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

DWD 00z run similar to UKMO so far:

And looks good at 132 to me.

Here comes the ECM....looks like the high is going northwest....looks like a much better ECM...

Deep Easterly

Latest Met Eireann outlook:

Met Eireann wrote:

Mainly dry, settled weather will continue for the rest of the weekend and for much of the coming week but it will be very cold. Saturday night will be dry and cold with some frost and fog developing. Sunday will be dry, with sunny intervals in many areas, though fog may linger in places. Winds on Sunday will be light southeasterly or variable. Top temperatures only 6 to 8 degrees. Early frost and fog will slowly clear on Monday to give sunny spells, though the fog may linger in places. With little or no wind it will be a very cold day with top temperatures only 5 to 7 degrees. Frost will form readily again after dark. Monday night will be very cold with a hard frost developing as temperatures fall below freezing. Some mist and fog patches will form also. Tuesday will be another very cold day with frost and fog slow to clear and some sunny spells developing, a little patchy rain or sleet is possible.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/



Encouraging for cold at least and not ruling out the possibility of some precipitation next week.

Deep Easterly

ECM at 144hrs following the UKMO/DWD trend:



A real, continental easterly.

My kind of chart! :):):):):)

maquiladora

144 is good news chuck the rest of the run after that in the bin, ECM cannot be trusted too far ahead based on how its handling this cold setup so inconsistently.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

144 is good news chuck the rest of the run after that in the bin, ECM cannot be trusted too far ahead based on how its handling this cold setup so inconsistently.

Very true, but FI is still encouraging. Canadian Arctic High a bigger factor in this run, sucking up our High and causing a potential "Arctic Plunge" over Ireland:

(image attached as a can't be arsed photobucketing again )

Sponge Bob

Deep Easterly wrote: »

(image attached as a can't be arsed photobucketing again )

You can embed after you attach you know even though it does not end with gif or jpg , here is your pic for you DE