Wintry potential December 09

munsterlegend

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Latest Met Eireann outlook:


http://www.met.ie/forecasts/



Encouraging for cold at least and not ruling out the possibility of some precipitation next week.

was listening to the radio forecast before 8 and they expected next week to be mainly dry. will they be right or is it too early to call?

pauldry

the latest ............... from yahoo:)
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20091211/tuk-britain-set-for-weekend-big-chill-6323e80.html

Wibbler

pauldry wrote: »

the latest ............... from yahoo:)
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/21/20091211/tuk-britain-set-for-weekend-big-chill-6323e80.html

And so it begins... Wonder how long it will be before the redtops start telling is that snowmageddon is on the way?

jambofc

will it wont it will it wont it
i canny take much more of this

Wibbler

This all seems oh so familiar:

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055206494

Is there anything about the current 'potential' that sets it apart from the many previous 'events' we've had that ultimately ended up as damp squibs?

maquiladora

06Z GFS seems ok in the short term but then the high doesn't move that far north and kinda hangs around then comes back over us. The real cold air heads further south into europe and misses us. We wouldn't see much snow if this came off.

Will be interesting to see the (P) run and ensembles.

Supercell

its very marginal on Monday night looking at the 00z, coastal areas in the east are likely to have sleety rain, a few km inland and at elevation will probably get snow. I'm pretty confidant it will be snow here.

maquiladora

Hehe, GFS 06Z having some fun deep in FI with an arctic low?



:pac:

Looks like a good coating for annamoe in the short term but
after that look at 72hrs ahead and no further folks except
for kicks
reason being the slightest change in the high means big changes
in say precip and air direction
also you need a min of minus 7 850's and low rh
to be sure. On the coast I think
brrr this itouch is hard to type on here in frigid new York lol
taking the 4wd up towards buffolo now to see the lake effect
pasting they are getting
don't let it snow too much in Ireland till I'm back mid next week

Ciaran500

Bit breezy next week apparently. http://www.metcheck.com/V40/UK/FREE/7days.asp?zipcode=dublin

307mph on Friday

Redsunset

Well last night i was wrecking my head as to why the faithful ECM was not playing ball,i even called it pants because of the strongly negative AO.

Im relieved it has done somewhat of a u turn towards what has been a very consistent GFS. (parallel model which takes over from op model on 15th dec)

The greater cold does not come till late next week.


http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=45090637001&title=Long-Lasting Cold

arctictree

My oh my, what a spectacular GFS 12z. Midday, next Wednesday:



Precipitation:

Villain

Potential is there, its just wait and see now.

Min

Very cold and wintry weather looks certain.

I would say a 100% chance of seeing snow in the east especially on higher ground.

DOCARCH

Min wrote: »

Very cold and wintry weather looks certain.

Sleety cold rain?

I refuse to get excited about this 'cold spell' so then you can't be dissapointed.

Supercell

arctictree, you and I will need a shovel by Wednesday! What a 12z!

MUSEIST

Are my missing something or is the 12z run actually quite EPIC:D, no.

Next thursday looks like a snowfest in the east, precipitation, -5 and below uppers, 528 dam line across the entire country, easterly wind lowering dew points,
SWEET.

But it will undoubtedly downgrade later.

arctictree

Supercell wrote: »

arctictree, you and I will need a shovel by Wednesday! What a 12z!

OK - Thats the best chart for snow I have EVER seen at my location (last 10 years).

Now the caveat - It is at t+120 so is more than likely to change. It seems to be very different to the 06z so we know that it could easily flip back!

forkassed

UKMO says yes

Rougies

When does the ECM 12z start to roll out?

MUSEIST

Why do I get the feeling something memorable (weather wise) is gonna happen in the next week and a half.;)

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

When does the ECM 12z start to roll out?

After 6pm.

Duiske

Supercell wrote: »

arctictree, you and I will need a shovel by Wednesday! What a 12z!

Yup, looks brilliant for you guys. Tell you what, theres going to be some wind chill effect from Moday thru the whole week.

maquiladora

Ensembles indicate that the 12Z GFS doesnt have much support after the 21st, I guess that is FI but ensembles looked tighter yesterday.

ninebeanrows

I like very much the ECM at 120hrs.

Is a nice feed and good signals that this easterly could go ahead after yesterdays woes.

ninebeanrows

And again

Elmo5

Looking good!!!

JanuarySnowstor

Good to see the eagle nail his colours to the mast i.e cold and totally dry
What the...... charts is he looking at?
This country could close down from snow by thursday is my biased opinion:D

Redsunset

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Good to see the eagle nail his colours to the mast i.e cold and totally dry
What the...... charts is he looking at?
This country could close down from snow by thursday is my biased opinion:D

thursday looking savage for east(prob change but check it out)

http://www.ogimet.com/show_foremaps.php?lang=en&date=20091211&run=12&zone=UK00&proy=132

maquiladora

Encouraging stuff this evening from the ECM, now we have good model agreement in the fairly reliable timeframe... but I'd be wary about getting too carried away with what its showing past 100 hrs as it has been poor predicting this setup (remember yesterday?) and just because we like this run doesn't mean it'll be the correct one.

Anyway, with that soberness out of the way...I have bought my ticket for the rollercoaster. :pac: