Wintry potential December 09

Elmo5

Had a look at the models too and they do all seem to be in agreement re:thursday. Now, how am I going to sleep until then!

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Encouraging stuff this evening from the ECM, now we have good model agreement in the fairly reliable timeframe... but I'd be wary about getting too carried away with what its showing past 100 hrs as it has been poor predicting this setup (remember yesterday?) and just because we like this run doesn't mean it'll be the correct one.

Anyway, with that soberness out of the way...I have bought my ticket for the rollercoaster. :pac:

Very encouraging indeed!

Now I'm on board....and I brought my skates too!:D

maquiladora

Here's a good read on an old fashioned winter, I'm not saying we'll see anything like this, but its very interesting to read, almost impossible to imagine.

http://www.irishidentity.com/extras/weather/stories/snow.htm

Elmer Blooker

Yeah, total agreement up to +144!!
.....and to think that this time yesterday the ECM had me completely down in the dumps, and by the way DO NOT EXPECT TO HEAR MET EIREANN TO MENTION THE WORD "SNOW" in their forecasts until the very last minute!!:D

MUSEIST

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

Yeah, total agreement up to +144!!
.....and to think that this time yesterday the ECM had me completely down in the dumps, and by the way DO NOT EXPECT TO HEAR MET EIREANN TO MENTION THE WORD "SNOW" in their forecasts until the very last minute!!:D

Yep, especially Gerry Murphy, it causes him physical pain to just mention the word and when it does snow he goes into complete denial.
He really does not like snow whereas evelyn on the other hand would say it with a large smile on her face.:D

Gonzo

RTE will only mention snow when its about 90% certain and within a 12-24 hour timeframe and their kinda right really. My confidence in this cold spell has grown a bit now that it's getting closer but im still not satisifed that those of us on low ground will see much yet other than some sleey wet snow action, defo the lads in the mountains should see some stickable snow if there is precipitation involved. Im not gonna warn the family to stock up on bread and milk just yet untill theres a definite close to time snow infested cold snap approaching a few hundred km from our shores.

Pangea

MUSEIST wrote: »

Yep, especially Gerry Murphy, it causes him physical pain to just mention the word and when it does snow he goes into complete denial.
He really does not like snow whereas evelyn on the other hand would say it with a large smile on her face.:D

Ya cant beat Eagleton on the forecast , I remember he presented a forecast on christmas day in 2000 for a very cold week, that resulted in around 10 inches/12 inches in Donegall , and around 7 in Mayo. Il always remeber that!
He seems to love the snow

owenc

temps expected to drop over night as cloud clears to clear skys hopefully, then tomorrow we will have got rid of this mild 7c rubbish down to 4c with sunshine then a cold night around -3/-4c id say for here....... and maybe 0c tonight?????? its 4.5c now

howlinwolf

im defo startin to believe in this cold snap it looks very likely now but im not so sure about the snow, we live in a country thats very marginal......even if you take the best case charts the warm high pressure is still very close to our west coast.it would take very little to change the next few days completly .......maybe at best we will have a crisp bright week or so with sharp frost at night......rant over and jesus do i hope im wrong on this but its hard to get overly excited when we have been let down soooo many times before

p.s. i badly need a pearl jam ticket pleaseeeee somebody help

Wibbler

A very reserved forecast from the Eagle there.

owenc

your talking about me well that isnt reserved that is right because the meto for here is very warm in their forecasts they forecast 6c here and its usually 4c etc and since im closer to scotland the land of the cold and further north aswell as higher up i will be colder......

Wibbler

owenc wrote: »

your talking about me

Actually, no. I was talking about the TV forecast after the 9PM RTE News.
Sorry, I should have been clear.

Timistry

So what are the chances of seeing some snow at lower levels in the S/SW. We will not be tapping into the coldest air and the temps are too high just out to sea, so precip will probably be sleety at best. Also, any showers from the Irish sea will not make it. Would it require a trough from the south?

Danno

Interesting 6pm output. Do not look into FI - horrible there. Wednesday is marginal, but can happen.

Mondays 6pm run will be the most interesting as there is reduced data available over the weekend.

Rougies

Timistry wrote: »

So what are the chances of seeing some snow at lower levels in the S/SW. We will not be tapping into the coldest air and the temps are too high just out to sea, so precip will probably be sleety at best. Also, any showers from the Irish sea will not make it. Would it require a trough from the south?

I'm no expert, but looking at this chart I'd say you are in with a decent chance

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1384.png

But I've decided to follow a lot of people's advice and wait for the cold to get here first, then start looking for the snow. Easy for me to say living in the east I suppose!

Timistry

Rougies wrote: »

I'm no expert, but looking at this chart I'd say you are in with a decent chance

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1384.png

But I've decided to follow a lot of people's advice and wait for the cold to get here first, then start looking for the snow. Easy for me to say living in the east I suppose!

Thanks Rougies. Didnt see that one! Would be sickened if we did not get any precip. Valentia recorded the highest rainfall total last month....:rolleyes:

Rougies

Timistry wrote: »

Thanks Rougies. Didnt see that one! Would be sickened if we did not get any precip. Valentia recorded the highest rainfall total last month....:rolleyes:

As I said I'm no expert, but as far as I know Valentia has the lowest record of snowfall (if any) out of all the stations, so the further you are from there (inland) the better the chance. Bit of a double edged sword since the precip tends to die out as it travels across land.

I'm perfectly situated for convective snowfall from the Irish Sea, about 10kms from Dublin Bay and a bit of elevation to boot:)

Pangea

If it does snow I want all yous to get off the internet and put away the charts and enjoy the snow

Rougies

Pangea wrote: »

If it does snow I want all yous to get off the internet and put away the charts and enjoy the snow

Ok, but I might log in occasionally to post a few pics in the weather pictures thread.

Takeshi_Kovacs

Rougies wrote: »

As I said I'm no expert, but as far as I know Valentia has the lowest record of snowfall (if any) out of all the stations, so the further you are from there (inland) the better the chance. Bit of a double edged sword since the precip tends to die out as it travels across land.

I'm perfectly situated for convective snowfall from the Irish Sea, about 10kms from Dublin Bay and a bit of elevation to boot:)

Aye, lower elevations in South Kerry dont usually get snow very often, just too damn south and close to the Atlantic. On the other hand go a few miles inwards from Valentia in to the Reeks, and i am sure some of the largest amount of snow falls there in all of Ireland.
Mt Brandon too is a massive snow magnet as well. I was talking to fella who climbed it last week, and and said, towards the top there was parts where he was waist deep in the snow, and there was also the odd fella that was doing a bit of snowboarding.

forkassed

:pac:

Elmo5

All of the models really do seem to coincide on Thursday as the snow day don't they?

Reassuring to see that they are coherent at least!

Have a look at the following though (yes I know, FI!), brrrrrr

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM1-240.GIF?11-0

maquiladora

Danno wrote: »

Interesting 6pm output. Do not look into FI - horrible there. Wednesday is marginal, but can happen.

Mondays 6pm run will be the most interesting as there is reduced data available over the weekend.

Thats an ok run for reliable timeframe, FI changes a lot on every run, lets get the cold first then wory about what happens. :pac:

forkassed

Duiske

00z keeps the cold scenario for the entire run. Not concerned that it shows less snow potential for the middle part of next week as thats something that just won't be nailed down until we get to about 24hrs out.

Certainly going to be bitter in that wind.

Deep Easterly

ECM 00z at 96hrs:



So far, so good. Increasing risk of showers on exposed coasts, esp Leinster, Ulster and perhaps north Connacht.

Deep Easterly

At 120hrs, ECM showing a very emotional (for me ) set up!!:



My heart is racing. It is just too beautiful.

Deep Easterly

At 144hrs, fridged ridge cuts off continental flow but increases potential for some extremely severe frosts, contingent, of course, on cloud cover:



A great run so far. Pointless looking beyond as other's have said, but fantastic stuff. :):):)

Deep Easterly

Just for fun, here is a chart from the epic February 86:



Very similar to the ECM 120hrs chart posted above. Feb 86' was possibly the last winter month in Ireland to have inland stations to finish up with a negative monthly mean temp.

maquiladora

That chart really does put it in perspective. We could be facing into a winter cold spell not seen since the 80s, not only that, but its only December. :pac: