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Wintry potential December 09

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    #392
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    Deep Easterly wrote: »
    Just for fun, here is a chart from the epic February 86:

    Rrea00119860205.gif

    Very similar to the ECM 120hrs chart posted above. Feb 86' was possibly the last winter month in Ireland to have inland stations to finish up with a negative monthly mean temp. :)


    haha i doubt that will ever happen we need -5c maxes to get the average down


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    #393
    Redsunset
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,693 ✭✭✭Redsunset


    Hey have you looked at latest 00z ECM run in fi,words can not hardly describe:eek:


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    #394
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    No major upset with the 06Z GFS, very close to the 0Z for most of the reliable timeframe.

    GFS (P) is fine too and extends the cold spell all the way through its run.


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    #395
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Met Eireann on very early stages of what could be a long cold spell:
    MONDAY NIGHT will be very cold with a hard frost developing as temperatures fall below freezing. Some mist and fog patches will form also. TUESDAY will be another very cold day with frost and fog slow to clear and some sunny spells developing. However, a little patchy rain or sleet is possible.


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    #396
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    maquiladora wrote: »
    No major upset with the 06Z GFS, very close to the 0Z for most of the reliable timeframe.

    GFS (P) is fine too and extends the cold spell all the way through its run.

    Are you using the the parallell runs from net weather?

    K.


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    #397
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I already have my snow boots by the door. In my mind, we are getting snow :)


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    #398
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Jake1 wrote: »
    I already have my snow boots by the door. In my mind, we are getting snow :)

    Postive thinking :)


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    #399
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Kippure wrote: »
    Are you using the the parallell runs from net weather?

    K.


    No, on Meteociel. I believe it will be the new operational starting next week.

    Check out 252 hrs on the parallel, ECM was hinting at this too....I know its very deep in FI but.... :

    2la3qdu.png

    :eek::eek::eek:


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    #400
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,025 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Kippure wrote: »
    Postive thinking :)


    yep, that and I feel it in me aul bones :):)


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    #401
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    maquiladora wrote: »
    No, on Meteociel. I believe it will be the new operational starting next week.

    Check out 252 hrs on the parallel, ECM was hinting at this too....I know its very deep in FI but.... :

    2la3qdu.png

    :eek::eek::eek:

    My God. Though i think some thing like this will occur once the cold arrives, the models will change a bit and interpurt the new data, in other words a model is run, "its data is updated to reflect the latest conditions".


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    #402
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    I don't think i've ever seen such an uncertainty in the ensembles at only about 24 hours out! Really shows how out of their depth the models are atm:p
    98707.png


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    #403
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Last nights sea forecast incase any of yous want to see it.
    Weather.mpg - 50.81MB


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    #404
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    trogdor wrote: »
    I don't think i've ever seen such an uncertainty in the ensembles at only about 24 hours out! Really shows how out of their depth the models are atm:p
    98707.png

    Wow, all of the ensembles below the 30 year average from 15th to the 21st and the mean never rises above 0. Messy looking but still...


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    #405
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Encouraging stuff from the latest UKMO 15 day forecast for those of us that dream of cold and wintry instead of mild and murky Christmas'.
    From Monday (21st) until Boxing Day (26th) it looks like staying cold with further wintry showers.

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html


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    #406
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Encouraging stuff from the latest UKMO 15 day forecast for those of us that dream of cold and wintry instead of mild and murky Christmas'.



    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

    Good stuff, but wait till the christmas period and the ranting and raving of missing data over the christmas period. Will there or wont there be a break down? lol


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    #407
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    Just listening to the met eireann forecast on the radio they are saying a dusting of snow for eastern counties on Tuesday and Wednesday:)


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    #408
    snow plow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 49 ✭snow plow


    SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »
    Just listening to the met eireann forecast on the radio they are saying a dusting of snow for eastern counties on Tuesday and Wednesday:)

    Did they say only on high ground?


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    #409
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users Posts: 43,028 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989


    snow plow wrote: »
    Did they say only on high ground?

    No mention of higher ground


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    #410
    snow plow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 49 ✭snow plow


    SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »
    No mention of higher ground


    That's a good sign. :D





    Dan


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    #411
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,997 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Couldn't have been Gerry Murphy then? The only time the word snow can pass his lips is when it's in the same sentence as higher ground.


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    #412
    Pangea
    Registered Users Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    The lunch time weather brought to you by Pangea :)Weather lunchtime.mpg - 47.66MB


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    #413
    Dotsie~tmp
    Registered Users Posts: 1,427 ✭✭✭Dotsie~tmp


    Anyone thinking about betting on the Dublin white Christmas? 5/1 sound good?


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    #414
    200motels
    Registered Users Posts: 2,604 ✭✭✭200motels


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    Couldn't have been Gerry Murphy then? The only time the word snow can pass his lips is when it's in the same sentence as higher ground.

    He just said on the 6pm news sleet and snow on high ground.


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    #415
    Wibbler
    Registered Users Posts: 411 ✭✭Wibbler


    The forum over at Netweather.tv seems to have crumpled under the load. Good sign, I'd say.


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    #416
    jenzz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 986 ✭✭✭jenzz


    I know we need a DP of 0 & I know we need precipitation & I know we need cold temperatures but what else do we need to make it snow . I follow Brayweather.com so what else do I need to be watching for ( apart from snow flakes!)


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    #417
    dedon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 761 ✭✭✭dedon


    Will the snow (if it comes) just affect the East?? Pretty upsetting if we don't get a thing over this way


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    #418
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    12Z GFS gives a decent snow event for most of the country next Friday/Saturday, with up to 9mm liquid-equivalent lying snow by 00Z Sunday 20th..
    (also shown is the 0°C level, in metres)


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    #419
    owenc
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 5,524 ✭✭✭owenc


    thats more like it can you gimmie the link for that???


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    #420
    Su Campu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,279 ✭✭✭Su Campu


    owenc wrote: »
    thats more like it can you gimmie the link for that???

    http://www.wetter3.de/animation.html (Select Mitteleuropa and 0°C-Grenze, Akkumulierter Schnee)

    Also the Friday 12Z GFS sounding for Dublin looks good.....plenty of moisture with dewpoints just below zero...


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    #421
    Trogdor
    Registered Users Posts: 2,310 ✭✭✭Trogdor


    Gonna close this thread up as it seems to have run it's course, follow on here for now.
    jenzz wrote: »
    I know we need a DP of 0 & I know we need precipitation & I know we need cold temperatures but what else do we need to make it snow . I follow Brayweather.com so what else do I need to be watching for ( apart from snow flakes!)

    Well from the dewpoint (which is a measure of temperature and humidty) there isn't much more to look out for in terms of current conditions. A wind from the West is handy on the coast as you won't have the warmth coming in off the sea. Other wise in terms of charts, you'd be looking for 850hpa temps below -5C (example of chart) at least and air thickness below 528dam (example of chart) and all charts can be found here :)


This discussion has been closed.
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