Wintry potential December 09

maquiladora

Wibbler wrote: »

Is it time to board the rollercoaster?

Let's see what the 12Z ECM does this evening first....

Redsunset

maquiladora wrote: »

Let's see what the 12Z ECM does this evening first....

Did you lose your ticket?

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

Did you lose your ticket?

:pac: I'm just a bit further back in the queue...

Redsunset

ha very good well it looks like the states are getting a good dumping before the arctic air arrives.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=21670159001&title=Travel Nightmare!&ctr=2

Redsunset

Met Eireann

Later in the weekend and into the early days of next week , the winds look set to become moderate to fresh north to northeasterly, and it will get colder by several degrees at that stage, with more severe frosts at night

Wibbler

redsunset wrote: »

Met Eireann

Later in the weekend and into the early days of next week , the winds look set to become moderate to fresh north to northeasterly, and it will get colder by several degrees at that stage, with more severe frosts at night

Whahoo! Apocalypse!

Has anyone correlated outbreaks of wintry weather with the state of the country's finances and budgetary policy? The memorable events of my childhood seem to occur when the country was up the creek without a paddle and workers were feeling strident. We could be in for an event.

super_furry

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055481006

I called it months ago :P

roryc1

Wibbler wrote: »

Whahoo! Apocalypse!

Has anyone correlated outbreaks of wintry weather with the state of the country's finances and budgetary policy? The memorable events of my childhood seem to occur when the country was up the creek without a paddle and workers were feeling strident. We could be in for an event.

I have heard from a friend of mine that the reason the country is broke, is because Cowan has bought a lot of snow from the Russians and they are not cheap, he sould of got it off the chinese

pistolpetes11

redsunset wrote: »

ha very good well it looks like the states are getting a good dumping before the arctic air arrives.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=21670159001&title=Travel Nightmare!&ctr=2

Wow there looking at 1-1.5 ft of snow in some areas on that report , oh to be in Chicago !!!

maquiladora

Have you seen Joe Bastardi's Euro Blog?

U.S. MODEL ENGULFING EUROPE IN SNOW NEXT 15 DAYS.

I have been telling people in the States now for a couple of weeks that a "December to remember" is on the way, and over here we have the best setup for a widespread white Christmas in many a year. Well, today I will try, on our free site at accuweather.com, to cut a video showing what is the most widespread snowcover I have ever seen a model forecast as fully all of Europe is forecasted to be covered in snow by the 23rd!

....

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Hmmmm.......

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Have you seen Joe Bastardi's Euro Blog?



http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

Hmmmm.......

Yes, read it a few hours ago, certainly confident it will be very cold.

Even goes as far as talking about winters from the Victorian era....

Wibbler

Min wrote: »

Yes, read it a few hours ago, certainly confident it will be very cold.

Even goes as far as talking about winters from the Victorian era....

I think when Joe talks about Europe, he's talking about somewhere quite a bit southeast of here. :rolleyes:

My, he does go over the top a bit.

Duiske

Hey Guys, I don't want to sound like the bollix that stole xmas, but I'd urge a little bit of caution about what to expect from this cold spell.
Remember that just 6 days ago we were talking about something akin to a hurricane coming in for Budget day. That storm will be parked somewhere between Greenland and Iceland tomorrow. Things can and do change.

I'd love to see a "real" winter cold spell though, but I'm not gonna get over excited about this until its shown at 48hrs/72hrs.

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

:pac: I'm just a bit further back in the queue...

I'm just behind you in the queue, but looking at the 12z GFS I might head for the big wheel instead .

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

I'm just behind you in the queue, but looking at the 12z GFS I might head for the big wheel instead .

Oh I'm not going anywhere yet. I'd like to see the UKMO and 12Z ECM first. The 12Z GFS run may have been a mild outlier, p run is better until it gets far into FI and the ensembles are still good.

Gonzo

has this been downgraded severely already? im not gonna get my hopes up untill about 12 hours before.

Redsunset

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=55253314001

Well i really think he is right to be skeptical.

cold yes but not what those models are predicting surely,tis much too early(or is it!!!!)

maquiladora

Latest UKMO run at 144 :



:pac:

patneve

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest UKMO run at 144 :



:pac:

good UKMO, I now await ECMWF

Supercell

maquiladora wrote: »

Latest UKMO run at 144 :



:pac:

Overcast and cold with a breeze on the east coast counties, eww, no thanks.

howlinwolf

surely that accuweather report cant be right.......just some overhyped weather prediction......i imagine it will get cold in mainland europe but they have snow for the whole of europe for a time(even spain). how accurate is the accuweather site ?....i,ve never watched it before

patneve

High Pressure cuts and cold filters west, nice ecmwf

(by the way, if I'm wrong correct me)

maquiladora

howlinwolf wrote: »

surely that accuweather report cant be right.......just some overhyped weather prediction......i imagine it will get cold in mainland europe but they have snow for the whole of europe for a time(even spain). how accurate is the accuweather site ?....i,ve never watched it before

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Bastardi

howlinwolf

thanks for that.........sounds like he,s a bit out there.....dont think i,ll take him too seriously,maybe if a few more credible sites and forecasters say the same i might stand up and take note.

maquiladora

12Z ECM at 240....

darkman2

The crucial chart on the ECM is at 144hrs - if something like this makes it to 72hrs then possibly one of the coldest periods in over 20 years may occur.




The ensembles show the GFS 12hrs operational run was an outlier in terms of delaying the cold as much as it did. Agreement continues to increase that the weather is going to turn very much colder indeed from the Northeast or East.

darkman2

patneve wrote: »

High Pressure cuts and cold filters west, nice ecmwf

(by the way, if I'm wrong correct me)

No, your right, but ideally we would prefer the High Pressure to be a bit further North.

Deep Easterly

Great ECM run tonight: My pick of the run is this chart:



We still need these precious synoptics to come with the 72hr time frame to be anyway assured of a decent spell of cool, crisp weather so fingers crossed.

darkman2

JMA - very similar to ECM up to 120 and 144hrs - 168 onwards

maquiladora

Yeah, looks like there might be a nice long cold spell leading up to Christmas with potential for snow further down the line. Something not seen for a long time is possible...

"Happy crimbo babe" indeed. :pac: