Wintry potential December 09

Redsunset

Braving the elements soon!!!!!!!!!!!!

You guys are fascinating. I am buckled in for the next few weeks I cant read charts as yet, but am trying to learn fast.
Would like to ask a laymans(womans) question, please, if I may.

What do you feel in your guts? Snow event or non event?
I mean do any of you really really think it will snow?


Thanks.

darkman2

Jake1 wrote: »

What do you feel in your guts? Snow event or non event?
I mean do any of you really really think it will snow?


Thanks.

It's maybe a little bit early but chances are there probrably will be snow at this stage. Depends on location really and wind direction. The wind direction is likely to be a Northeasterly or Easterly so obviously favours onshore coasts of the East and SouthEast. This could alternate with a Northerly at times bringing snow there. It;s really just a bit too far out to be specific but keep an eye on these threads! You will get the hang of the charts soon enough.:)


Actually in future with charts I might post just basically what it shows.

maquiladora

Jake1 wrote: »

You guys are fascinating. I am buckled in for the next few weeks I cant read charts as yet, but am trying to learn fast.
Would like to ask a laymans(womans) question, please, if I may.

What do you feel in your guts? Snow event or non event?
I mean do any of you really really think it will snow?


Thanks.

Its certainly going to get colder, but for how long and what goes along with the cold, well that is still up in the air. At the moment Id say theres a better than 50/50 chance of a nice cold spell. Dont get too excited though, were just excited because it looks like its getting closer and some of the major forecast models are looking good on their most recent runs (hopefully a better GFS tonight...)

Thanks both of you. That was honest enough. Ill look forward to seeing what you post later.


Hard not to get excited though isnt it ?

Redsunset

Jake1 wrote: »

You guys are fascinating. I am buckled in for the next few weeks I cant read charts as yet, but am trying to learn fast.
Would like to ask a laymans(womans) question, please, if I may.

What do you feel in your guts? Snow event or non event?
I mean do any of you really really think it will snow?


Thanks.

Right honestly with those charts holding to a 24hr time frame,hell yes.

but thats where the problem lies,will they or won't they.

not even the best can call exactly what will come to fruit however as alot of us do preach here,it's all about trends trends trends and them holding to see it come to pass.

its looking really good as models come into agreement but thats all one to say so far out unfortunately.sorry.

Deep Easterly

Jake1 wrote: »

Thanks both of you. That was honest enough. Ill look forward to seeing what you post later.

What part of the country are you in Jake? if you are in the east you would have a better chance of snow, if in the west you would have cold, dry, desert conditions with frost by day and night!

redsunset

redsunset wrote: »

Right honestly with those charts holding to a 24hr time frame,hell yes.

but thats where the problem lies,will they or won't they.

not even the best can call exactly what will come to fruit however as alot of us do preach here,it's all about trends trends trends and them holding to see it come to pass.

its looking really good as models come into agreement but thats all one to say so far out unfortunately.sorry.

THANKS. Im taking the Hell yes bit
Ah no, I see what yis are saying, I know its far out. But its great to have something to get worked up over.
It would be magical to get a good aul dumping of it.

FlawedGenius

Love the snow!:DCould we have as much snow as we had last February or maybe even more?? If the snow is coming when would it come, over the xmas or before or after??:)

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

What part of the country are you in Jake? if you are in the east you would have a better chance of snow, if in the west you would have cold, dry, desert conditions with frost by day and night!

Im in Lucan,Co Dublin, weston area. we got snow last year it lasted about two weeks frozen. The lad next door built a snowman, and I couldnt belive how long it lasted.

darkman2

GerCPM wrote: »

Love the snow!:DCould we have as much snow as we had last February or maybe even more?? If the snow is coming when would it come, over the xmas or before or after??:)

The best opportunity is mid month onward. Whether that extends toward Christmas it's just to far out to be able to say. Accuracy goes downhill fast once you pass 6 or 7 days in forcasting. In fact more often then not it is not accurate at all. As above it's just about trends. In a few days time if things hold up then the minor details like where will it snow and how much would be far easier to answer.

It's by no means certain yet so I would not be getting too excited. But the trend is good.

GerCPM

GerCPM wrote: »

Love the snow!:DCould we have as much snow as we had last February or maybe even more?? If the snow is coming when would it come, over the xmas or before or after??:)

Just laughing here to myself, at how excited grown people get over snow. Nostalgia or wha? When is it coming, how much will we get etc. Just funny.

smashey

Jake1 wrote: »

Just laughing here to myself, at how excited grown people get over snow. Nostalgia or wha? When is it coming, how much will we get etc. Just funny.

Join the club. I'm on my annual pilgrimage to the weather forum in search of snow.

I have a dream. I think it was 1991 and I was living in Birmingham at the time. It started snowing one Friday night and on Saturday morning, I had to go out the window to clear snow from the door of my flat (the door opened outwards) such was the dumping we got overnight.

I want something like that again.

Elmo5

I'm in Celbridge Jake, so only a few mins away from you. Hope we get a really good lot of it. Looking good if it hits the east!

Would love the same amount that we got last Jan. That was just magical!

we'llallhavetea_old

smashey wrote: »

Join the club. I'm on my annual pilgrimage to the weather forum in search of snow.

I have a dream. I think it was 1991 and I was living in Birmingham at the time. It started snowing one Friday night and on Saturday morning, I had to go out the window to clear snow from the door of my flat (the door opened outwards) such was the dumping we got overnight.

I want something like that again.

jesus thats a lovely picture you've painted. magic!

Gonzo

we had a magical 4 to 6 hour easterly driving snow event about 2 years ago around january 4th 2008. It dumped about 6 to 7 inchs of snow in a short period of time, unfortunately it was very short lived and rain and mild air replaced it the following morning, If we could get something like that but over a few days to a week would be awesume, I dont think we've had a prolonged cold/snow event here in about 12 years.

maquiladora

18Z GFS starting to roll out, this should be fun.

Deep Easterly

Gerry Murphy on the TV forecast just now doesn't seem very excited about this potential.

We need Evelyn to do the forecast. Biggest ramper in town. She is one of us!

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Gerry Murphy on the TV forecast just now doesn't seem very excited about this potential.

We need Evelyn to do the forecast. Biggest ramper in town. She is one of us!

Too funny. LOL. I love it.
Evelyn the ramper .
This place should be called the Snowboards for the duration of this exciting maybe, could happen, hopefully ,snowatching next coupla days...

Artfu1Dodger

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Gerry Murphy on the TV forecast just now doesn't seem very excited about this potential.

We need Evelyn to do the forecast. Biggest ramper in town. She is one of us!

Good old Gerry wont mention anything untill there is 6ft snow drifts outside met eireann.:D

roryc1

byrneno7 wrote: »

Good old Gerry wont mention anything untill there is 6ft snow drifts outside met eireann.:D

Even then he would say light showers :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

byrneno7 wrote: »

Good old Gerry wont mention anything untill there is 6ft snow drifts outside met eireann.:D

Yep, without a doubt we need Evelyn in on this. Here she is in classic ramp mode in February earlier this year.

Elmo5

Elmo5 wrote: »

I'm in Celbridge Jake, so only a few mins away from you. Hope we get a really good lot of it. Looking good if it hits the east!

Would love the same amount that we got last Jan. That was just magical!

be great alright. Im thinking wer'e good for it here in Lucan.
Dont we get great Sky here at night too? if youre into star gazing. Its like stellarium.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Gerry Murphy on the TV forecast just now doesn't seem very excited about this potential.

We need Evelyn to do the forecast. Biggest ramper in town. She is one of us!

indeed. if there was two foot of snow on the way Gerry would be matter of fact about it. For those who are truly devoted to snow, perhaps you might consider a trip over to norfolk sometime next week:P

Deep Easterly

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Yep, without a doubt we need Evelyn in on this. Here she is in classic ramp mode in February earlier this year.

tears rolling down my face, with laughing. I see what you mean, she has a big ****-eating grin on her!!:D

Rougies

Is it just me or does the GFS roll out way slower when there's a snow event on the cards!?

francosp

When will we see the latest charts ?

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

indeed. if there was two foot of snow on the way Gerry would be matter of fact about it. For those who are truly devoted to snow, perhaps you might consider a trip over to norfolk sometime next week:P

:pac:

Never mind Nacho if we westerner's miss out on snow this time (although it is not unusual to get snow flurries this side with a strong easterly). A polar low will sort us out sometime this winter hopefully. A series of them in back in Jan 84 totally cut off the West with some of the biggest falls of the 20th century.

We just need it to happen again...

soon! :cool:

Rougies

This 18z looks like another downgrade to me. But I'll wait to see what the experts have to say...

maquiladora

Youd be lucky to see a flake of snow from that 18Z GFS run! :P

The building blocks are roughly in place but the cold air doesnt get anywhere near us...

But....check out the GFS P run! :pac: