Wintry potential December 09

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Youd be lucky to see a flake of snow from that 18Z GFS run! :P

The building blocks are roughly in place but the cold air doesnt get anywhere near us...

The most important thing at this stage is the overall trend. Lets get the synoptics in place first, the cold will come in time...

850's temps temps become quite irrelevant when the wind is from an easterly quarter at this time of year. Surface temps may be a good deal lower due to relatively lower humidity.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

:pac:

Never mind Nacho if we westerner's miss out on snow this time (although it is not unusual to get snow flurries this side with a strong easterly). A polar low will sort us out sometime this winter hopefully. A series of them in back in Jan 84 totally cut off the West with some of the biggest falls of the 20th century.

We just need it to happen again...

soon! :cool:

yeah, i guess we'll just have to wait for the series of polar lows to deliver us some snow, like you say. It looks like the east of England won't be getting snow either.

notuslimited

Darkman2...really appreciate if you could follow on your suggestion to explain the charts you post.

Cheers

FlawedGenius

So its not gona snow!:(:rolleyes:

Duiske

Hows that for an Easterly !!! Ha, it even gets over to M.T.s house



Ramp over. Still not getting excited by this. I swear !! :cool:

Deep Easterly

Absolute EPIC ECMWF run this morning. Nothing is far from nailed on at this very early stage and I am well aware that things can go terribly, terribly wrong, but it is hard not to get excited at the model runs this morning with the possibility of a true Greenland high developing post 144hrs. If anything, the runs are even colder looking that yesterday's Even the UKMO looking good this morning. :)

owenc

well accu weather is forecastig snow for here on tuesday and wednesday and maxes of 2c and thats rare when they have that!!! This must be some cold weather ( probably not as usual). and bbc weather forecasted snow for next week

maquiladora

Yep the 0Z ECM is very nice indeed. The 0Z GFS is an improvement on the 18Z too, not too worried about the Atlantic coming in deep on that run cause its in the very unreliable timeline. GFS (P) looks good too...

Deep Easterly, what do you make of the 0Z UKMO, looks kinda...different? High too far north?

forkassed

Charts for next Tuesday from the big 3 models are almost identical which is reassuring.

ECM


UKMO


GFS



Given normal luck those charts will pull in the cold air and by thursday we are left with 850 temps around -7ish. Should pretty much guarantee snow for somewhere in the East if it plays out.

maquiladora

Met Eireann talking about a "sharp even severe frost developing" over the weekend, yep, the cold is on the way...

Min

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp&type=temp

Also has the freezing air coming next week.

pauldry

Most likely scenario is that the Saturday/Sunday before Xmas will see some snow in most parts of Ireland but after 23rd most of this will be gone and it will be windy and wet.

Looked at accuweather for Sligo n they seem to support this theory.

maquiladora

pauldry wrote: »

Most likely scenario is that the Saturday/Sunday before Xmas will see some snow in most parts of Ireland but after 23rd most of this will be gone and it will be windy and wet.

Looked at accuweather for Sligo n they seem to support this theory.

Thats an awful long time away....

Accuweather regional data is based just on model data with no forecaster input and at 300+ hours those models change massively.

About 50 different runs between now and then...

maquiladora

06Z GFS delays the cold air a few days but when it arrives its incredible :pac:

Unbelieveable stuff past 200 hours, days and days of snow....I've never seen the like of that before. Such a pity it's so far in FI, but if it came off....:D



Sick! :cool:

jambofc

all i want for xmas is snow snow snow(even before xmas)
praying this event is even half as good as early predictions

maquiladora

jambofc wrote: »

all i want for xmas is snow snow snow(even before xmas)
praying this event is even half as good as early predictions

Well the latest GFS model run, at its furthest and most unreliable frame, well, there's a good chance you'd have a couple of inches of lying snow pretty much everywhere on Christmas morning. But it's pure dreamland stuff at this stage so don't get too excited.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Well the latest GFS model run, at its furthest and most unreliable frame, well, there's a good chance you'd have a couple of inches of lying snow pretty much everywhere on Christmas morning. But it's pure dreamland stuff at this stage so don't get too excited.

it would be great if it happened but i'd be very sceptical given the letdowns in the past. still there does seem to a lot of agreement of a colder pattern in the uk and ireland forums. is there some milder interludes next week or just a gradual colder effect?

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

it would be great if it happened but i'd be very sceptical given the letdowns in the past. still there does seem to a lot of agreement of a colder pattern in the uk and ireland forums. is there some milder interludes next week or just a gradual colder effect?

Its going to get cooler but exactly when the real cold air might get to us hasn't been nailed down yet but hopefully by the second half of next week. There's always the chance the atlantic could pull a spoiler but things look pretty good at the moment, I'd say 70% chance of a good cold spell now. Snow is harder to forecast at long range but if we get into the right pattern it would just be a matter of time. Fingers crossed.

ninebeanrows

I think we are staring down the barrel of a potential intense and prolonged cold incursion that could measure against famous ones of the past.

The charts are still trying to throw up the exact pattern, but the broad pattern being established would suggest a prolonged period of cold weather becoming progressively colder from the east with snow.

It's looking damn good folks.

Kippure

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are staring down the barrel of a potential intense and prolonged cold incursion that could measure against famous ones of the past.

The charts are still trying to throw up the exact pattern, but the broad pattern being established would suggest a prolonged period of cold weather becoming progressively colder from the east with snow.

It's looking damn good folks.

You took the words right out of my mouth. I,ve never seen such charts or the progession of each run. I agree we are about to have a cold period that will rival some off our most famous winters. And whats great about this we are living through the evoulation of how each run interputs the outcome accross all the models.

Wibbler

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are staring down the barrel of a potential intense and prolonged cold incursion that could measure against famous ones of the past.

Kippure wrote: »

I agree we are about to have a cold period that will rival some off our most famous winters.

and the rollercoaster makes a steady initial climb to the top...

I'm just not buying into it at the moment. Been here too many times before.

Also, I'd caution everyone to stay calm and not tell all and sundry that there's major cold coming. There's nothing quite so embarrassing as telling friends and family that armageddon is nigh, and then having it sleet for 5 minutes before a return to business as usual.

Min

I'm not particularly looking forward to a very cold spell, I will have to work out in it and if the water supply starts freezing for the cattle it will be hell.
But no point complaining, I hate being snowed in though...it would not be so bad in 5 weeks time.

Redsunset

Wibbler wrote: »

and the rollercoaster makes a steady initial climb to the top...

I'm just not buying into it at the moment. Been here too many times before.

Also, I'd caution everyone to stay calm and not tell all and sundry that there's major cold coming. There's nothing quite so embarrassing as telling friends and family that armageddon is nigh, and then having it sleet for 5 minutes before a return to business as usual.

yes the rollercoaster is starting to fill up and so get your ticket quick!!!

Have faith,thats all we can do now, i understand about years upon years of disappointment,however and its a big however,when have we seen all models showing something like this thats not really a millions miles away now.im certainly growing in confidence with it each day as are more so fingers crossed everyone.

Wibbler

Wibbler wrote: »

and the rollercoaster makes a steady initial climb to the top...

I'm just not buying into it at the moment. Been here too many times before.

Also, I'd caution everyone to stay calm and not tell all and sundry that there's major cold coming. There's nothing quite so embarrassing as telling friends and family that armageddon is nigh, and then having it sleet for 5 minutes before a return to business as usual.

Ooops,... to late for me, Ive told everyone LOL.
I told them Snowmagedon is on the way, and sure enuff, they do think im mad

howlinwolf

Wibbler wrote: »

and the rollercoaster makes a steady initial climb to the top...

I'm just not buying into it at the moment. Been here too many times before.

Also, I'd caution everyone to stay calm and not tell all and sundry that there's major cold coming. There's nothing quite so embarrassing as telling friends and family that armageddon is nigh, and then having it sleet for 5 minutes before a return to business as usual.

i have to agree,my two sons are mad for snow (arent they all) but theres no way im gonna tell them that russia is payin us a visit soon....too many things can go wrong it happens most years,although i have to say the charts really look strong........time will tell

Danno

The charts are looking sweet at the moment, but most importantly, the ECMWF charts are in total agreement also. When these guys are onboard, it is pretty safe to say that the cold will arrive, whether or not snow comes along also is another matter, but reading in between the lines, it should bring snow also. Early days yet, things can change, but probably only subtly and the length of the cold spell also.
A two week cold spell is possible right now.

munsterlegend

The uk met office who i find reliable are in agreement with the potential for very cold weather:

UK Outlook for Monday 14 Dec 2009 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2009:
On Monday, cold with slow-clearing mist or fog in the south and west although there is a risk of showers or outbreaks of rain, turning to snow over higher ground, in the north and east through the day. Remaining cold and mostly dry in many areas through the rest of the week although there is the potential for blustery wintry showers especially across northern and eastern parts. The nights will be frosty in many places with some persistent fog or freezing fog also forming. From Saturday and for the rest of the period it is likely to remain cold or even very cold and rather breezy at times. It could also turn more unsettled bringing a further risk of snow showers, especially to northern and eastern parts.

Updated: 1153 on Wed 9 Dec 2009

BigCon

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are staring down the barrel of a potential intense and prolonged cold incursion that could measure against famous ones of the past.

Forget about Wham and Last Christmas, forget about the Coca-cola and Barry's tea ads on TV, it doesn't begin to feel like Christmas until Weathercheck begins to ramp a snow event of a lifetime (that probably won't come off)...

BigCon

I'd settle for this (with loads of precipatation of course)...

maquiladora

redsunset wrote: »

yes the rollercoaster is starting to fill up and so get your ticket quick!!!

I still haven't got my ticket for the rollercoaster yet but I've moved closer to the ticket booth now...

It's very exciting looking at some of the model runs but I still find it hard to not to be wary, maybe because all the good stuff is still in FI.