Wintry potential December 09

TheHairyFairy

Wow at all the possibilities. Lets all remember that things are tight for a lot of families at the moment, so a prolonged cold spell is probably the last thing a lot of people want to see.

Remember to let anyone that is at risk of cold weather know about this well in advance so they can at least prepare for it.

Pangea

TheHairyFairy wrote: »

a prolonged cold spell is probably the last thing a lot of people want to see.

Its better than floods anyways :P :cool:

maquiladora

Fingers crossed for a good 12Z from the models this evening....

maquiladora

maquiladora wrote: »

Fingers crossed for a good 12Z from the models this evening....

And Toes:)
if the models are good tonight, does it just raise the bar for the possibility for snow?

Elmer Blooker

Weathercheck wrote: »

I think we are staring down the barrel of a potential intense and prolonged cold incursion that could measure against famous ones of the past.

The charts are still trying to throw up the exact pattern, but the broad pattern being established would suggest a prolonged period of cold weather becoming progressively colder from the east with snow.

It's looking damn good folks.

I think its looking good as well! This isn't going to be one of those pathetic northerly topplers that we've become accustomed to in recent years.
If Europe is snow covered from the Urals to Western Europe (which I think it will be next week) then I think we're in for the first real easterly since 1987!
Expect convective snow showers in eastern parts......... merging into longer
spells.................:D

patneve

looking at the updated GFS charts there could be snow flurries as early as monday;)

patneve

GFS 12Z so far are close to perfection. Starting to believe in it seriously.

arctictree

patneve wrote: »

looking at the updated GFS charts there could be snow flurries as early as monday;)

Yep, latest GFS charts are showing showers starting on the east coast at midnight on Sunday and then lasting for most of the week. Temps seem a bit high for snow to begin with but from experiance, GFS seems to over estimate temperatures in these situations. Nevertheless, temps are dropping day by day as the easterly takes hold.

Out to t+168 now and its a cracking run.

patneve

patneve wrote: »

looking at the updated GFS charts there could be snow flurries as early as monday;)

Youre kidding OMG!!! would we get it in Dublin?

plein de force

patneve wrote: »

GFS 12Z so far are close to perfection. Starting to believe in it seriously.

i know how hard it is to forecast precipitation this far out but maybe someone in the know could have a stab at it, how much snow might we expect if these charts play ball?

glossy

patneve wrote: »

looking at the updated GFS charts there could be snow flurries as early as monday;)

:D:D:D

omg!!! ive been following this thread, in hoping it will happen

yippey...... oh i hope i havent jinxed it.. im so excited....

thank you thank you all .....

patneve

Jake1 wrote: »

Youre kidding OMG!!! would we get it in Dublin?

I dunno, it would be extremely light precipitation if it occurred...i'm looking forward to Wednesday onwards anyway;)

patneve

glossy wrote: »

:D:D:D

omg!!! ive been following this thread, in hoping it will happen

yippey...... oh i hope i havent jinxed it.. im so excited....

thank you thank you all .....

very light precipitation, almost nothing. I'd be more excited for Wednesday onwards

BealaMeala

Oh my god I can't handle the excitment...Let it snow, let it snow..But you guys keep mentioning the east...What about the south?...We missed out on all the snow last year do ye think we'll miss out again?

Redsunset

Oh god there will be a many grown man crying if a u turn on this happens but i doubt it.

i've posted in the strat warming thread the position of the split Polar Vortex today and why i underestimated this at first .i see it coming through.

roryc1

Yeah 12z are looking very good, 850 temps are looking like falling fast from friday, the GFS keeps getting better and it really is sticking to a cold cold spell coming up

maquiladora

12Z GFS keeps things chilly with the chance of some light snow flurries on high ground early next week and then what would be plenty of snow late in the week, beyond that is so far away and so liable to massive change that there isn't much point looking at.

GFS parallel run is great too for its entire run with -8 850's over us on Xmas Day Fun to look at, just don't expect it to happen

Hopefully watching these runs will continue to be great fun for the next few days...

owenc

nw is going mad!!!!! anyway im looking at wednesday as that is when the real cold comes i think maxes from sunday to tuesday for here will be 3c and then colder from wednesday but no doubt this will all change and be ruined by tomorrow i have good faith it wont because of those on nw predicting it to be as cold as 1987 and as snowy.!!!

Wibbler

maquiladora wrote: »

Hopefully watching these runs will continue to be great fun for the next few days...

Yup, my ass is firmly seated in the rollercoaster now. Hope my lunch stays down.

Some heavy traffic over at the Netweather.tv forum today. It's been pushing nearly 500 concurrent visitors in the model discussion thread and that's before this evening when everyone gets home.

Wibbler

owenc wrote: »

nw is going mad!!!!! anyway im looking at wednesday as that is when the real cold comes i think maxes from sunday to tuesday for here will be 3c and then colder from wednesday but no doubt this will all change and be ruined by tomorrow i have good faith it wont because of those on nw predicting it to be as cold as 1987 and as snowy.!!!

It's funny, I don't remember the 1987 cold and snow. Maybe I had other things on my mind - 1987 my leaving cert year. :-) Also, was it a widespread event?

I do remember Jan 1982, though. That's the yardstick against which I measure every cold spell. Crazy blizzards, powder snow and extreme cold. Some good threads in the archives on that event.

munsterlegend

Wibbler wrote: »

It's funny, I don't remember the 1987 cold and snow. Maybe I had other things on my mind - 1987 my leaving cert year. :-) Also, was it a widespread event?

I do remember Jan 1982, though. That's the yardstick against which I measure every cold spell. Crazy blizzards, powder snow and extreme cold. Some good threads in the archives on that event.

yeah 1987 was bad - remember in cork loads of snow which seemed to last for over a week just after new year. not sure was it a northerly or easterly flow over the country but the effects were countrywide.

1982 i don't remember - was it localised or a nationwide event?

owenc

Wibbler wrote: »

Yup, my ass is firmly seated in the rollercoaster now. Hope my lunch stays down.

Some heavy traffic over at the Netweather.tv forum today. It's been pushing nearly 500 concurrent visitors in the model discussion thread and that's before this evening when everyone gets home.

actually the chats numbers on nw has dropped......i cannot wait to next week to see how cold we get id say for here 1c maxes consideing how north and my height!!

Wibbler

munsterlegend wrote: »

1982 i don't remember - was it localised or a nationwide event?

I believe it was a nationwide event, but with the east of the country (including Dublin where I live) being hit the hardest. It was classic stuff with bread and milk rationing, schools closed for long periods and trips to A&E.

Here's a sample with some 8mm footage (not mine) taken not too far from where I lived at the time: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Afss7QL4wAc

Here's a boards.ie thread on the subject: http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2054920482

Deep Easterly

UKMO 12z at 144hrs:


Chilly... :pac:

maquiladora

Dont get too excited lads, theres still plenty of time for this to downgrade or fizzle out and become very unexciting indeed.

Im still not on the rollercoaster myself...

ECM 12Z is looking like a slower but still good run so far.

owenc

going by the depressing commets on nw it looks like it is downgrading ughhh!!!!!!!! the horrible uk weather is always getting milder ughh!

Timistry

The rollercoaster is now closed for repairs:(!

Redsunset

The Arctic Oscillation chart is shocking:eek:

it's kamakazie dive that indicates blocking.






And the negative North Atlantic Oscillation





surely we can't fail this time

Villain

Deep Easterly wrote: »

UKMO 12z at 144hrs:


Chilly... :pac:

looks awful like a pair of b**bs

Redsunset

Timistry wrote: »

The rollercoaster is now closed for repairs:(!

Your in the wrong theme park my friend.

it is coming,like it or not.


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