Wintry potential December 09

maquiladora

ECM 12Z is another cracker by the end of the run, just slower than the GFS.

Gettin closer to the coaster.

Timistry

redsunset wrote: »

Your in the wrong theme park my friend.

it is coming,like it or not.


http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=89718

Quite right. took a wrong turn:rolleyes: The ECM 12Z 240h is stunning to say the least. That would bring down power lines id say therefore no boards for us:p

maquiladora

Timistry wrote: »

Quite right. took a wrong turn:rolleyes: The ECM 12Z 240h is stunning to say the least. That would bring down power lines id say therefore no boards for us:p

I wouldnt be too worried about the specifics of exact temps or snow potential at 240 hours cause there will be huge changes before then, the important thing is that the pattern is moving in the right direction as we get closer and closer...

Could be an epic winter, and its only December... :pac:

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

the important thing is that the pattern is moving in the right direction

Yep, I totally agree.

No point in talking about snow potential until these beautiful synoptics verify. Lets get into the pattern first (which is the most delicate and unpredictable factor at this stage), then we can start talking about specifics regarding snow and frost.

One thing will follow another but we just need that one thing to start first.

Su Campu

There's a big swing to a negative NAO on the way. It'll be interesting to see if it will hold, after such a positive index over the last 18 months. My hunch is that it will. The northern hemisphere pattern takes up a stationary to retrogressive look, which could hold the northern European highs in place. Plenty of arctic outbreaks southward, feeding the sub-tropical lows. All bodes well for a cold New Year

I saw some english sites are calling this coming cold front the beast from the east.

nacho libre

Wibbler wrote: »

and the rollercoaster makes a steady initial climb to the top...

I'm just not buying into it at the moment. Been here too many times before.

Also, I'd caution everyone to stay calm and not tell all and sundry that there's major cold coming. There's nothing quite so embarrassing as telling friends and family that armageddon is nigh, and then having it sleet for 5 minutes before a return to business as usual.

yes, the pessimist in me feels you maybe right. What seems certain at this stage is that it's going to get cold, but just how cold, and whether our eastern brethren will experience a snowfest, is the question.

if you don't want to get your hopes up, look away now:

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

if you don't want to get your hopes up, look away now:

GFS 18z still looks ok out at 117hrs:




Christ will this ever make it into the 48hr/72hrs range? The nearer it gets, the more terrified I am becoming that it won't happen. I am literally sweating with anxiety at the moment.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

GFS 18z still looks ok out at 117hrs:




Christ will this ever make it into the 48hr/72hrs range? The nearer it gets, the more terrified I am becoming that it won't happen. I am literally sweating with anxiety at the moment.

well that's the danger paddy1 - the real cold continually being put back and suddenly the NAO goes back into positive territory and we end up with a mild and wet Christmas:mad:

Deep Easterly

At 162hrs, things still looking good, if not great:



Healthy dry air.

Takeshi_Kovacs

If this does come off as hoped, i presume it will mostly eastern areas of the country that will see any meaningful snow fall on lower elevations and the west will remain mostly dry and cold, with any snow confined to mountains? (I expect the UK to get a large amount of snowfall though)

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

At 162hrs, things still looking good, if not great:



Healthy dry air.

this chart looks better:

Deep Easterly

I would still prefer if the feed was coming in directly from the continent, but I am not complaining. Defo a bigger chance of snow in this run. Ulster, Leinster and increasingly, north Connacht.

Nacho, hope you enjoy your snow! I still am very happy with the cold, frosty and exceptionally dry and breezy weather potential for Galway. Much needed around these parts.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I would still prefer if the feed was coming in directly from the continent, but I am not complaining. Defo a bigger chance of snow in this run. Ulster, Leinster and increasingly, north Connacht.

Nacho, hope you enjoy your snow! I still am very happy with the cold, frosty and exceptionally dry and breezy weather potential for Galway. Much needed around these parts.

thanks paddy1. though it's more likely that chart won't come off. we all know the models will change a lot from now till then.

However, do you think it's possible a polar low could form if that chart is realised? Certainly, with the likely warmer SSTs over the Irish sea at this time of year, it should give rise to some beefy showers across the north east and east.

yansnow

viewing the lastest charts colder air is digging in before as forcasted.next thursday few bands of precipitations is with the cold air lots of snow for the eastern areas.:eek:

yansnow

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1921.html

robbie_998

Yay

I cant wait now :D:D

yansnow

http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2009/12/09/basis18/enen/rart_09121700_0918.gif?05311e8222020015068dfd2b8dbd637e

yansnow

http://209.197.11.95/c9s4a5k3/cds/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/18/180/prectypeuktopo.png?dopvhost=charts.netweather.tv&doppl=08b50fcd43954c3f&dopsig=dfb824232f77a9062e552027268b04ff

Steoob

yansnow wrote: »

viewing the lastest charts colder air is digging in before as forcasted.next thursday few bands of precipitations is with the cold air lots of snow for the eastern areas.:eek:

FFS, cork seems to be the only place not getting any. Grrr. The lack of snow seems to always follow me.

Bog Butter

What are the chances of this happening??? Is is greater than 50%

Jemmy

You've got my hopes up now, it better snow!

pistolpetes11

emmm you might of missed this thread, but it has been the hottest topic of discussion on the weather forum for the last few days

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055760028&page=15

Timistry

That is still FI model speculation. Even though there is a good agreement amongst the models it could go pear shaped. Those precip models are just best guesses if u ask me. I will be damned if the west missed out again. I want a low from the SW battling with a NE'ly, creating the motherload.:D ah if only..... I was in leeds last winter and saw proper snow in the dales. 2ft drifts..... oh the memories

jenzz

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055760028

Hey OP - guys have been following this for few weeks now - very interesting

yansnow

Yes chances are greater to snow for how long not for sure maybe just before Christmas.there's a split in the polar vortex bringing a cold bulb of air and precipitations.haven't seen this in year and I've been following this for weeks.

Pangea

Check this out http://uk.news.yahoo.com/5/20091209/tuk-uk-braced-for-fortnight-of-wintry-we-45dbed5.html

http://news.google.ie/news/more?um=1&cf=all&ned=en_ie&source=hp&cf=all&ncl=dTwQGakSDhNaJuML-2_MtWQa2EurM

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html
UK Outlook for Monday 14 Dec 2009 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2009:

On Monday, cold with slow-clearing mist or fog in the south and west although there is a risk of showers or outbreaks of rain, turning to snow over higher ground, in the north and east through the day. Remaining cold and mostly dry in many areas through the rest of the week although there is the potential for blustery wintry showers especially across northern and eastern parts. The nights will be frosty in many places with some persistent fog or freezing fog also forming. From Saturday and for the rest of the period it is likely to remain cold or even very cold and rather breezy at times. It could also turn more unsettled bringing a further risk of snow showers, especially to northern and eastern parts.

Deep Easterly

I think it is a bit risky, if not reckless, to be calling a snow event a week in advance. Especially given the delicacy of the situation at this early stage.

That is not to say it won't happen, but one step at a time

Supercell

OMG! This chart will change..but..omg..Ireland Inc (apart from maybe Kerry) will SHUT_DOWN!!!

Deep Easterly

First signs of a downgrade on this morning's ECM run. While it isn't all the bad, a true Icelandic high just never kicks in the way that earlier runs had shown. Weather in Ireland looks slack and HP dominated throughout the run with frost and fog being the most wintry features with little wind, except in the south at times.

UKMO still holding onto the idea of a true northern block developing at 144hrs, so all hope is not lost. Hopefully this morning's ECM run was just a once off.