Wintry potential December 09

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

First signs of a downgrade on this morning's ECM run.

Yeah, latest ECM run is indeed a downgrade but its just one run on its own so far and it still looks good within the reliable timeframe so hopefully not too serious.

GFS still looks good for snow next week and keeps the cold over us all the way through its run.

So far so good...

Min

Met Eireann say it will be next Thursday that the real cold comes with wintry precipitation.

Wibbler

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann say it will be next Thursday that the real cold comes with wintry precipitation.

If this comes off, and at a week away it is a big 'if', will ground temperatures be cold enough to allow any snow to stick?

We've had what seems like an eternity of mildish wet weather and no severe frosts, so I'm thinking it will be slush under foot in quick time. Am I wrong?

Wibbler

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann say it will be next Thursday that the real cold comes with wintry precipitation.

A week is a long time in weather terms. I remember that in previous years a lot of the time the models showed great cold just out of reach and with each successive run delayed the cold a little longer so it never actually arrived.

Elmer Blooker

The latest ECM is a major let down if you ask me! Plenty of frost and fog with high pressure well in control....... and not a flake in sight. Of course the charts will change again and again but yet again I'll look like the biggest eejit that ever lived telling everyone that snow is on the way!

force eleven

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I think it is a bit risky, if not reckless, to be calling a snow event a week in advance. Especially given the delicacy of the situation at this early stage.

That is not to say it won't happen, but one step at a time

Thus speaks a wise and seasoned weather watcher...we've been here many times before only to be let down. Snow forecasting with accuracy is extremely difficult within 24 hours let alone a week. Colder weather is coming and let us see how the next 3 or 4 days play out before seeing if the white stuff is coming along for the ride....

maquiladora

I think the title of this thread should include a *

Then at the bottom of the page....


* Snow may not include snow

:P

maquiladora

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The latest ECM is a major let down if you ask me! Plenty of frost and fog with high pressure well in control....... and not a flake in sight. Of course the charts will change again and again but yet again I'll look like the biggest eejit that ever lived telling everyone that snow is on the way!

ECM is still fine in the reliable timeframe and its been wobbling a fair bit over the past few days, I wouldn't be too concerned about that at the moment.

06Z GFS rolling out...

maquiladora

06Z GFS looks great so far, cold air gets further west and faster, looks like snow showers for the east and south from Tuesday?

Edit : Later in the week there isn't the same widespread snow as shown in previous runs and FI isn't too exciting but that'll chop and change on every run...

2nd Edit : GFS (P) run keeps it cold deep into FI teasing us with what looks like a white xmas?

Very long way to go...

pauldry

Call me mad but I predict a mild wet xmas. I have done so for months now so cant change now unfortunately. (My name isnt Brian Lenihan)

jambofc

it's gone very quiet in here

pistolpetes11

jambofc wrote: »

it's gone very quiet in here

We are here alrite ! For me Im trying not to get over exciting until we are in a reliable timeframe but I have to admit its very hard !

maquiladora

Latest GFS gives us good chance of snow showers on Tuesday :

jambofc

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

We are here alrite ! For me Im trying not to get over exciting until we are in a reliable timeframe but I have to admit its very hard !

was looking at cam's in russia this morning,snow in parts of russia mostly north and east but very little in the west of the country....
it looks to me as if there seems to be a downgrade of this event allready,been hopeing since 82 for another once in a decade event,have fingers and toes crossed hopeing
maybe if we all suck in air together it might drag the easterly's here a bit quicker

pistolpetes11

@ Maquiladora

What would you deem a reliable time frame for forecast like that ? If we were still seeing this trend over the weekend would it be time to get very excited

maquiladora

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

@ Maquiladora

What would you deem a reliable time frame for forecast like that ? If we were still seeing this trend over the weekend would it be time to get very excited

I think most people would say 96 hours is really reliable timeframe but ya never know with our weather, things can be marginal here... :P

munsterlegend

the uk met office outlook looks wintry:


UK Outlook for Tuesday 15 Dec 2009 to Thursday 24 Dec 2009:

It will be cold or rather cold at first, with showers which may be prolonged at times across northern and eastern parts and perhaps moving into central areas at times. Some showers likely to fall as sleet or snow. Overnight frost is likely in many areas with fog in places. By the end of the week and over the weekend, staying cold or perhaps even turning very cold, with an increased risk of longer spells of sleet and snow. It is also likely to be windy at times making it feel even colder. At this stage, the cold and unsettled weather seems likely continue after next weekend with more spells of rain, sleet and snow, especially in the north and east.
Updated: 1150 on Thu 10 Dec 2009

Trogdor

Threads merged, try to keep the excitement confined to the one thread

06z GFS ensembles seem to be suggesting now that the first cool off may occur on sunday:D
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

maquiladora

trogdor wrote: »

Threads merged, try to keep the excitement confined to the one thread

06z GFS ensembles seem to be suggesting now that the first cool off may occur on sunday:D
http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/MT8_Dublin_ens.png

Nice ensembles.

Looks to me like the 06Z operational was a mild run in the later stages?

Happy days :pac:

pauldry

Agree threads are all over the place like a mad sowing machine.

Christmas Day will be wet.

maquiladora

Christmas Day will be wet.

If you take a look at the ensembles you can see the GFS operational was a mild run at that time compared to the rest. That chart is also ridiculously far into FI to say it "will" be wet instead of..."may" :pac: I'm holding onto the hope that we could be in for a long cold spell...

Supercell

Thanks for merging the threads, I think next week is going to be a busy one here
Christmas day is total FI, lets just get to Monday and the blizzards first :pac::pac::pac:

Duiske

maquiladora wrote: »

That chart is also ridiculously far into FI to say it "will" be wet instead of..."may" :pac: I'm holding onto the hope that we could be in for a long cold spell...

Could not agree more.

ch750536

This is getting funny. even I know not to look at charts beyond 4 days and take them seriously.

wild handlin

Hi all,

I'm no expert on weather patterns - all a learning curve!!

But, those charts/diagrammes do look pretty good for some cold weather coming our way.

Apoligies if this has been asked before but....whats the chances of it snowing in the North West over the period in question??

I took a look at Accu-Weather the yesterday, and stated snow for next Saturday/Sunday/Monday!! However, I checked again today it it had changed to rain.... (surprise surprise!!):rolleyes:

Had a descent amount of snow in February which was nice!!

Anway, any info/help appriecated!!

All the best.

Edit: I appreicate that long-range forcasts are hard to predict, but any indication would be great, cheers!!

Min

Metcheck is funny, for next wednesday, show showers with winds blowing at 335mph gusting to 402mph, must be a part Jupiter weather forecast thrown in there.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

Metcheck is funny, for next wednesday, show showers with winds blowing at 335mph gusting to 402mph, must be a part Jupiter weather forecast thrown in there.

Metcheck I find is usually very inaccurate even without obvious errors like that.


12Z GFS rolling out now...

yansnow

slight upgrade the way the high is moving around the colder air from russia might make landfall earlier as thought.http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn602.png

maquiladora

12 GFS is looking good so far...

Could see light snow showers as early as Monday evening with this.

munsterlegend

yansnow wrote: »

slight upgrade the way the high is moving around the colder air from russia might make landfall earlier as thought.http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/Rtavn602.png

seems to me like the uk will get a big hit in eastern parts? will it spread west to effect us at all?