Shane Lowry - 2019 Champion Golfer of The Year (note first post please for posting guidance)

cairny

abff wrote: »

Does anyone know when they are announcing the final field for the Nedbank Challenge? There are only 15 names listed at present.

The press are saying that Shane is guaranteed being in the top 50 at year end, no matter what happens over the next 5 weeks. I'd be more certain of this if there are no more than 3 players in the Nedbank who would be capable of overtaking him, assuming the worst possible combination of results from his perspective. Once the field is finalised, I'll be able to work out the estimated world ranking points available and whether he is at risk.

By the way, I've looked at the field for the Hero World Challenge and the lowest ranked player is at 38 in this week's world rankings. It's a pretty strong field, with 7 of the top ten and 16 of the top 24 in the world rankings. Based on this week's world rankings (which are not likely to change much over the next week), it will be worth 46 points to the winner (same as last year).

Yourself and Jerry S have been far more accurate and informative that the press all year, thanks a mill for all the work. Really added to the enjoyment knowing what he needed to do each week.

Henry Ford III

I think Shane has made tremendous strides in every aspect of his golfing life. Fair play to him, and continued success too.

abff

cairny wrote: »

Yourself and Jerry S have been far more accurate and informative that the press all year, thanks a mill for all the work. Really added to the enjoyment knowing what he needed to do each week.

Thanks. It's nice to know that I'm not the only one who's interested in keeping on top of the latest position.

I'll post an update as soon as I see the final field for the Nedbank.

vienne86

Given the awful start Shane had to the season, I would never have dreamed he could make the top 50. He has given a lot of pleasure to a lot of people this season - he has been great to watch and I just hope he can maintain this and push on higher up the rankings.

Maths1

The Nedbank challenge field has been published

Alexander Levy,L.Oosthuizen,Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, M.Siem M Warren are some of the names that have been added to the list.John Senden is playing this week and next week on the Australian Tour, and K. Oda is playing this week on the Japanese Tour , i do not know if he is playing next week. These are all the closest ranked to Shane.
So it looks as if Shane still has some work to do to stay in the top 50

I hope things fall right for him

FixdePitchmark

Maths1 wrote: »

The Nedbank challenge field has been published

Alexander Levy,L.Oosthuizen,Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, M.Siem M Warren are some of the names that have been added to the list.John Senden is playing this week and next week on the Australian Tour, and K. Oda is playing this week on the Japanese Tour , i do not know if he is playing next week. These are all the closest ranked to Shane.
So it looks as if Shane still has some work to do to stay in the top 50

I hope things fall right for him

:p:p:p:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:p:p:

vienne86

Maths1 wrote: »

The Nedbank challenge field has been published

Alexander Levy,L.Oosthuizen,Jonas Blixt, Tommy Fleetwood, M.Siem M Warren are some of the names that have been added to the list.John Senden is playing this week and next week on the Australian Tour, and K. Oda is playing this week on the Japanese Tour , i do not know if he is playing next week. These are all the closest ranked to Shane.
So it looks as if Shane still has some work to do to stay in the top 50

I hope things fall right for him

I can't find the entry list....can you point me to it?

Maths1

I found the entry list under

Sunshine tour/it begins here.Press on where it says Oosthuizen added to field you will see the entry list . I think the winner of this weeks tournament in South Africa gets added to the field. Hope this helps

vienne86

Maths1 wrote: »

I found the entry list under

Sunshine tour/it begins here.Press on where it says Oosthuizen added to field you will see the entry list . I think the winner of this weeks tournament in South Africa gets added to the field. Hope this helps

Excellent.....they don't make it easy! So thanks for your efforts which benefit us all here.

abff

Based on the current field and this week's world rankings, the Nedbank will be worth 42 points to the winner, with last place getting 1.90 points. This could go up to 44 points for the winner, depending on who qualifies by winning this week's Cape Town Open.

Shane is currently projected to be 45th at year end and seems to be reasonably safe for a place in the top 50. But there are a number of players in the top 60 who are playing over the next couple of weeks and the picture will be a bit clearer after next weekend's results are in.

At that stage, I'll work out what different players will need to do to pass Shane in the year end rankings and whether he is at risk of falling outside the top 50 at year end.

Speak Now

He is 36th in ranking points won this year.

PARlance

Gotta love the lad

https://twitter.com/shanelowrygolf/status/537974466945753089

vienne86

PARlance wrote: »

Gotta love the lad

https://twitter.com/shanelowrygolf/status/537974466945753089

Should use a stylus typing on that phone!

PARlance

vienne86 wrote: »

Should use a stylus typing on that phone!

I don't get you?

Hope you're not implying that Shane has fat fingers

vienne86

PARlance wrote: »

I don't get you?

Hope you're not implying that Shane has fat fingers

Most of us suffer from fat fingers when it comes to typing on the phone!

shabalala

Got engaged this week in Dubai apparantly.

BoardsMember

shabalala wrote: »

Got engaged this week in Dubai apparantly.

That's on a different topic than the fat fingers one presumably :eek:

shabalala

BoardsMember wrote: »

That's on a different topic than the fat fingers one presumably :eek:

Quite possible it may be related........ :rolleyes:

Rikand

shabalala wrote: »

Got engaged this week in Dubai apparantly.

Good for him!

vienne86

shabalala wrote: »

Got engaged this week in Dubai apparantly.

Good man, Shane. Wish them every happiness.

soundsham

she better get a wriggle on before he does a Rory....

Consciously uncouples and goes ballistic on the course for a few months...

abff

abff wrote: »

Based on the current field and this week's world rankings, the Nedbank will be worth 42 points to the winner, with last place getting 1.90 points. This could go up to 44 points for the winner, depending on who qualifies by winning this week's Cape Town Open.

Shane is currently projected to be 45th at year end and seems to be reasonably safe for a place in the top 50. But there are a number of players in the top 60 who are playing over the next couple of weeks and the picture will be a bit clearer after next weekend's results are in.

At that stage, I'll work out what different players will need to do to pass Shane in the year end rankings and whether he is at risk of falling outside the top 50 at year end.

Victor Dubuisson has withdrawn from the Nedbank and replaced by Brendon Todd, who is currently 52nd in the world rankings. This gives Todd a chance of moving into the top 50 by year end.

coylemj

The Australian Open results won't affect Lowry, the nearest player below him who had the potential to leap-frog him with a good finish was John Senden (OWGR 50) who came T23 in Sydney so won't make much of a move in the rankings.

vienne86

Shane still on 47 today, as expected. Really looking forward to the Nedbank this week.

vienne86

abff wrote: »

Victor Dubuisson has withdrawn from the Nedbank and replaced by Brendon Todd, who is currently 52nd in the world rankings. This gives Todd a chance of moving into the top 50 by year end.

Todd is 51st this morning. He'll be making a run for the top 50 without doubt.

coylemj

As expected there wasn't much movement in the zone around the 50 mark in the OWGR. Between 40 and 60 there was four pairs who swapped places, including John Senden (50=>49) who swapped with Brett Snedeker (49=>50) thanks to picking up 1.84 points in Sydney. Lowry as already stated is still on 47.

abff

Warning: Boring technical analysis of the world ranking value of the Nedbank Challenge.

I see that the OWGR is showing the Nedbank as having a SOF value of 196 and 38 world ranking points to the winner. As the world rating value of the field is 186, this means that they are only applying a tour rating value of 10. However, if we calculate the tour rating value by reference to the 2014 Race to Dubai, we get a total of 40, which would bring the overall SOF to 226 and would increase the world ranking points for the winner from 38 to 42. I presume the reason for the lower rating is that the OWGR view the Sunshine Tour as the primary tour for purposes of calculating the tour rating value.

In a way, this is good news for Shane Lowry as it makes it slightly less likely that those close behind him in the world rankings will earn enough points to move ahead of him. I'm looking at what various players would need to do to move past Shane in the year end world rankings and I'll post my conclusions in a separate post (as I think there are already too many figures in this one).

coylemj

abff wrote: »

I presume the reason for the lower rating is that the OWGR view the Sunshine Tour as the primary tour for purposes of calculating the tour rating value.

It appears to be co-sanctioned by the European Tour (technically part of the 'The European Tour International Schedule') as the results will count for the Race to Dubai 2015. However you are correct in that it is first and foremost a Sunshine Tour event.

abff

OK, I've completed my analysis and I've concluded that it would require an extraordinary set of results for Shane not to finish in the top 50 in the year end world rankings.

To start with, he is projected to move ahead of Gary Woodland and Marc Leishman in the year end rankings, which would bring him up to 45th. As far as I know, there are no more counting events after this week other than in Japan and Australia, plus the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa. Assuming Woodland and Leishman are not playing in any of these events and ignoring (for the moment) the Alfred Dunhill Championship, there are 10 players who could potentially finish ahead of Shane in the year end World rankings, assuming he finishes in 30th place in the Nedbank. Even if he is unable to play for some reason or is disqualified, the number remains at 10.

Of these, John Senden is likely to be playing in Australia and Koumei Oda in Japan. In order to finish ahead of Lowry (assuming he finishes last in the Nedbank), Senden would need to pick up 9.25 world ranking points and Oda would need to pick up 14.93 world ranking points.

The other 8 players are in the Nedbank and the result they would need to move ahead of Shane (assuming he finishes last and assuming this is their last tournament of the year) are as follows:

Current Ranking Name Finish Required
51 Brendon Todd 3
53 Alexander Levy 4
55 Louis Oosthuizen 3
59 Jonas Blixt 2
60 Tommy Fleetwood 2
61 Tim Clark 1
63 Marcel Siem 1
69 Pablo Larrazabal 1

It can be seen from the above that a freak combination of results could result in 4 of the above 8 players finishing ahead of Shane in the year end world rankings. If both Senden and Oda were also to move ahead of him, this would move Shane down to 51st.

For this to happen, Larrazabal, Siem or Clark would have to win the tournament, with either Fleetwood or Blixt finishing second (on their own), Oosthuizen or Todd 3rd (again on their own) and Levy 4th (also on his own). A pretty unlikely result, so I think Shane can start planning to visit Augusta next spring.

For completeness, I guess there's a good chance that both Oosthuizen and Clark (and possibly some of the other players, if they find themselves on the cusp of the top 50) might play in next week's Alfred Dunhill Championship and this would slightly alter the above requirements, but I still think Shane's pretty safe for being in the top 50 at year end.

abff

Rather than edit the above note, it occurs to me that some other combinations are possible that would allow 4 of the 8 players to move ahead of Shane (for example, Fleetwood first and Blixt second), but the basic message remains the same - it's pretty unlikely.

vienne86

abff wrote: »

Rather than edit the above note, it occurs to me that some other combinations are possible that would allow 4 of the 8 players to move ahead of Shane (for example, Fleetwood first and Blixt second), but the basic message remains the same - it's pretty unlikely.

Don't know how you figure it all out, but your analysis is much appreciated! Hopefully Shane will take matters into his own hands and do well this week.

Rikand

vienne86 wrote: »

Don't know how you figure it all out, but your analysis is much appreciated! Hopefully Shane will take matters into his own hands and do well this week.

this.

Out of curiousity, if Shane won this week, how high up the rankings would he go ?

vienne86

Rikand wrote: »

this.

Out of curiousity, if Shane won this week, how high up the rankings would he go ?

DON'T jinx his week, please!

abff

Rikand wrote: »

Out of curiousity, if Shane won this week, how high up the rankings would he go ?

Potentially, he could go as high as 27th with a win, depending on where Keegan Bradley and Steve Stricker finish in the Hero World Challenge.

abff

abff wrote: »

Potentially, he could go as high as 27th with a win, depending on where Keegan Bradley and Steve Stricker finish in the Hero World Challenge.

Of course, it would also depend on where the people above him in the world rankings who are competing in the Nedbank finish.

Speak Now

Shane is out with "The Mechanic" again tomorrow and Tim Clark.
First group off at 8.10 a.m Irish time.

Rikand

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Shane is out with "The Mechanic" again tomorrow and Tim Clark.
First group off at 8.10 a.m Irish time.

Full draw here

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2015/tournamentid=2014095/teetimes/index.html

Panrich

Rikand wrote: »

Full draw here

http://www.europeantour.com/europeantour/season=2015/tournamentid=2014095/teetimes/index.html

That's a very weak line-up overall. Not much to be afraid of there.

Keano

Panrich wrote: »

That's a very weak line-up overall. Not much to be afraid of there.

Weak? Ok then.

vienne86

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Shane is out with "The Mechanic" again tomorrow and Tim Clark.
First group off at 8.10 a.m Irish time.

The mechanic plays quite slowly and Lowry is a quick enoug player - I know they played together recently, so hope it works out OK.

abff

Panrich wrote: »

That's a very weak line-up overall. Not much to be afraid of there.

The world rankings of the players are as follows:

Martin Kaymer 13
Jamie Donaldson 23
Kevin Na 27
Joost Luiten 28
Charl Schwartzel 30
Thomas Bjørn 33
Brooks Koepka 35
Stephen Gallacher 36
Luke Donald 37
Miguel Angel Jiminez 41
Lee Westwood 42
Thongchai Jaidee 43
Mikko Ilonen 44
Shane Lowry 47
Brendon Todd 51
Alexander Lévy 53
Louis Oosthuizen 55
Jonas Blixt 59
Tommy Fleetwood 60
Tim Clark 61
Marcel Siem 63
Marc Warren 67
Pablo Larrazabal 69
George Coetzee 79
Danny Willett 84
Ross Fisher 88
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 146
Danie van Tonder 195
Jaco Ahlers 227
Dawie van der Walt 299

Not exactly star-studded (particularly for a 'wheelbarrow' event) with only one of the top 20 in the world rankings, but hardly what you would call weak.

Speak Now

Tiger's event is obviously a bigger pull for those knocking around the top 20 in OWGR, fairly decent field really outside of that.

abff

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Tiger's event is obviously a bigger pull for those knocking around the top 20 in OWGR, fairly decent field really outside of that.

I think geography also has a lot to do with it. 13 of the 18 players in the field are Americans and Graeme McDowell lives in Florida (as far as I know) and I think Justin Rose also has a home in the States. Not sure about where Stenson, Day and Matsuyama live.

Is there much disparity in prize money between the two events?

vienne86

Disappointing double bogey on the first hole this morning......c'mon lad....settle down.

pistol_75

abff wrote: »

I think geography also has a lot to do with it. 13 of the 18 players in the field are Americans and Graeme McDowell lives in Florida (as far as I know) and I think Justin Rose also has a home in the States. Not sure about where Stenson, Day and Matsuyama live.

Is there much disparity in prize money between the two events?

Not even that it's in the US but it is in Florida (Isleworth I think) where a lot of them are even members, but no travelling for most. I think Westwood had to get 4 flights to get down to SA.

Rikand

vienne86 wrote: »

Disappointing double bogey on the first hole this morning......c'mon lad....settle down.

Birdie on the 4th

He's settled

First Up

abff wrote: »

I think geography also has a lot to do with it. 13 of the 18 players in the field are Americans and Graeme McDowell lives in Florida (as far as I know) and I think Justin Rose also has a home in the States. Not sure about where Stenson, Day and Matsuyama live.

Is there much disparity in prize money between the two events?

Sun City much bigger.

Rikand

Is Shane's group letting people through ?

abff

First Up wrote: »

Sun City much bigger.

Just shows how much money the top players have that they can choose convenience over a much larger prize fund. Mind you, when you allow for the larger field in the Nedbank, the disparity in average prize money is only just over 10% ($216,667 in the Nedbank versus $194,444 in the Hero World Challenge). There's also more world ranking points available at the Hero WC.

Rikand

Rikand wrote: »

Is Shane's group letting people through ?

nevermind this - was just the scores on europeantour.com being slow to update