If the budget fails...

tolosenc

Just for clarification, should the Budget fail to pass on Wednesday, does it mean the automatic fall of the government, or just that there will be a confidence vote?

Darragh29

Toulousain wrote: »

Just for clarification, should the Budget fail to pass on Wednesday, does it mean the automatic fall of the government, or just that there will be a confidence vote?

I think if you can't get the budget through then it's a case of "it's goodbye from me and it's goodbye from him"...

Bad and all as things are, as much as I HATE this government, we can't afford another fudge on this one. You can't trust Gilmore or Kenny with this, what we need now is someone to stand up to vested interests and Lenihan is doing it at the moment.

The same logic that demanded pay increases when the cost of living increased, must surely provide for the opposite to happen when the cost of living falls. I don't think it is a huge ask, for those who have secure well paid jobs to contribute more in a national emergency until we get ourselves back to where we need to be...

I hope this budget does get through on Wednesday, because it falling down will be an open goal for the unions...

gent9662

Darragh29 wrote: »

I think if you can't get the budget through then it's a case of "it's goodbye from me and it's goodbye from him"...

Bad and all as things are, as much as I HATE this government, we can't afford another fudge on this one. You can't trust Gilmore or Kenny with this, what we need now is someone to stand up to vested interests and Lenihan is doing it at the moment.

The same logic that demanded pay increases when the cost of living increased, must surely provide for the opposite to happen when the cost of living falls. I don't think it is a huge ask, for those who have secure well paid jobs to contribute more in a national emergency until we get ourselves back to where we need to be...

I hope this budget does get through on Wednesday, because it falling down will be an open goal for the unions...

and it could mean an end to foreign investment in our banks. Can you imagine going to the atm and no cash is available to you!! It's not all that difficult to imagine

eoinbn

Toulousain wrote: »

Just for clarification, should the Budget fail to pass on Wednesday, does it mean the automatic fall of the government, or just that there will be a confidence vote?

Yes it leads to automatic the collapse of the government.

cson

dclane wrote: »

and it could mean an end to foreign investment in our banks. Can you imagine going to the atm and no cash is available to you!! It's not all that difficult to imagine

Er, yes it is. Please expand on that statement.

GSF

dclane wrote: »

and it could mean an end to foreign investment in our banks. Can you imagine going to the atm and no cash is available to you!! It's not all that difficult to imagine

there is currently NO foreign investment in Irish banks. Thats why the Irish government is bailing them out.

Darragh29

If we don't get our act together here pretty rapidly, the ECB is going to end up coming to the conclusion that what is needed here is an enforced correction.

Just like people who are addicted to spending money, you curtail their access to funds and they are then forced to deal with the problem whether they like it or not. Until that happens, they will spend all you give them and come back tomorrow for more...

ei.sdraob

this government is like a bad smell, they arent going away

Darragh29

ei.sdraob wrote: »

this government is like a bad smell, they arent going away

Because people in this country haven't the nuts to remove them...

brianthebard

Darragh29 wrote: »

I think if you can't get the budget through then it's a case of "it's goodbye from me and it's goodbye from him"...

Bad and all as things are, as much as I HATE this government, we can't afford another fudge on this one. You can't trust Gilmore or Kenny with this, what we need now is someone to stand up to vested interests and Lenihan is doing it at the moment.

On what basis can you say that we can't trust Gilmore or Kenny? FF is the embodiment of vested interests, why should we trust them?

Darragh29 wrote: »

If we don't get our act together here pretty rapidly, the ECB is going to end up coming to the conclusion that what is needed here is an enforced correction.

Is this the updated 'the IMF will take over' line?

Darragh29 wrote: »

Because people in this country haven't the nuts to remove them...

Well according to you we don't have anyone to replace them who can be trusted.

lmimmfn

if the budget doesnt go through we will be in deep trouble, it will start renegotiations with unions, FG & Labour will be looking to throw the government, we'll be back to square one on everything except that we'll spend another few months trying to get a budget through and in the meantime we would be borrowing an absolute fortune.

We dont need more instability on top of our current problems, ive no problem if FF get thrown out in january as long as we dont have months of headless chicken politicians.

masteroftherealm

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

CiaranC

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

Eh, what am I missing?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_external_debt

masteroftherealm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Last time I checked the government debt isnt anything to do with private debt.

CiaranC

Ah, thanks

masteroftherealm

No probs, simple enough mistake.

amacachi

Add 10% a year to our figure and see how long it takes to move up that list.

masteroftherealm

Add 20% to that figure yearly and borrow to fund stimulus investment and watch how quickly the defecit dissapears.

Shadowed

If the budget 'fails' or more importantly if it is a failure, it will firstly cause more constrained times for ordinary Joe and also most likely, spell the death knell for any hope of foreign investment in Ireland for a longer time than we can cope with.

While the Government and people in general need to focus on the state Ireland is in at the minute, we also need to send a message out to the 'investment world' that we are sorting things out and will not be a black hole forever. However, if the Government actually comes out with something refreshing and confidence inspiring I think I personally will fall over.....

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

pot.kettle.black:eek:

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

pot.kettle.black:eek:

Elaborate on this nonsensical point??

ceret

eoinbn wrote: »

Yes it leads to automatic the collapse of the government.

I've heard that. but I can't find anything in the constitution, nor Citizens Information stating that. Is it under law that there must be an election?

Or is a convention that as soon as the government loses the vote, the oppositiion will call a vote of no confidence that the government will almost certainly lose?

hinault

Hmmmmmmmm.

While I take the point that this budget must be passed, this budget runs the serious risk of killing the patient.
We need a budget which increases the tax take, without further deflating an ailing economy.

Remember this govt decided that raising VAT in 2008 was the appropriate move.
This is the same govt which wanted to rob our old age pensioners.

I do not believe that Cowen or Lenihan are much use.
They're as good, or as inept, as the opposition.
I don't believe that our leaders have the imagination/intelligence/nous to manage an economy faced with the problems that we have.

masteroftherealm

Failure to pass a Finance Bill has the same effects as a vote of no confidence in the government.

ceret

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Failure to pass a Finance Bill has the same effects as a vote of no confidence in the government.

Oh? is that written down somewhere? Got a link?

masteroftherealm

Article 28 section 10

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ireland#THE_GOVERNMENT

# The Taoiseach shall resign from office upon his ceasing to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann unless on his advice the President dissolves Dáil Éireann and on the reassembly of Dáil Éireann after the dissolution the Taoiseach secures the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann.


By losing the vote on the budget he would case to have the support of the majority of the dail.

Agent J

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Article 28 section 10

http://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ireland#THE_GOVERNMENT

# The Taoiseach shall resign from office upon his ceasing to retain the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann unless on his advice the President dissolves Dáil Éireann and on the reassembly of Dáil Éireann after the dissolution the Taoiseach secures the support of a majority in Dáil Éireann.


By losing the vote on the budget he would case to have the support of the majority of the dail.

The budget or any similarily important bill can be interpreted as a loss of confidence. I would love to see a court challenged aganist it.

If you keep going 28.11 says that once the Taosieach resigns for any reason then all the members of the governement are automatically have deemed to have resigned.

Same thing happened in 1982 under Fitzgerald.

Dirk Gently

something tells me FG and Lab will be praying the budget passes. Don't think either of them fancy having to do the job themselves at the moment. I don't think it's in much doubt anyway. Grealish will get his 30 pieces of silver and vote with the government.

thebman

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Well I would support the situation of a general election.
We can keep borrowing for many many months and still not come near the Debt to GDP ratios of many other countries.

Id prefer anyone over the gross mismanaging FF government who has shown a basic lack of knowledge of Economics 101

You don't borrow billions just to pay wages or social welfare, it doesn't make any sense to do it.

We shouldn't be aiming to reach number 1 on the debt to GDP ratios of countries. Most likely its our kids that will be paying it off.

Also things like NAMA are off the books so won't count in such a figure but realistically we owe that money when/if (but when) NAMA doesn't break even.

masteroftherealm

No sorry dont get me wrong I am not advocating no cuts.
Im saying we should be borrowing stimulus money and creating jobs not shedding them.

baubl

how can they put a budget together
when they are wasting money counting frogs
what next silly story will we hear,