If the budget fails...

Joe1919

ceret wrote: »

Oh? is that written down somewhere? Got a link?

We can also learn from history. (failure of John Brutons budget.)
http://www.rte.ie/laweb/ll/ll_t10d.html

jhegarty

clown bag wrote: »

something tells me FG and Lab will be praying the budget passes. Don't think either of them fancy having to do the job themselves at the moment. I don't think it's in much doubt anyway. Grealish will get his 30 pieces of silver and vote with the government.

I agree. I get the felling they want this through, then a no confidence vote within a month.

me_right_one

If it fails, Ireland is fcuked. I'm buying a donkey and all the flint I can get me hands on.

Peanut

masteroftherealm wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Last time I checked the government debt isnt anything to do with private debt.

That's out of date information. The level of public debt has rocketed since then:

"Public debt in Ireland is expected to soar to 83% of gross domestic product (GDP) next year, from just 25% in 2007."
After Dubai debacle, wondering where the next debt bombs lurk

Borrowing more (assuming we would even be able to) to prop up hugely uncompetitive labour and welfare costs would not be a very wise move.

However there may be some comfort in the knowledge that Ireland is being seen as trying to tackle these issues, in comparison with Greece for example,

"...They don't seem to understand that very serious austerity measures are needed. It is a striking contrast with Ireland"
Greece tests the limit of sovereign debt as it grinds towards slump

nesf

masteroftherealm wrote: »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt

Last time I checked the government debt isnt anything to do with private debt.

Like the above poster those ranking are woefully out of date since they're based on the CIA World Fact Book that has Ireland's unemployment rate at 6% which isn't exactly current. Really, wiki is grand for data but check the source of that data often for economic data and labour market data it is a year behind the current figures (or several years for some stats).

brendansmith

ei.sdraob wrote: »

this government is like a bad smell, they arent going away

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Elaborate on this nonsensical point??

you accuse the government of lacking basic economics yet contend we can keep borrowing at the rate we are currently doing so, ergo the pot is calling the kettle black

we can't keep borrowing to pay PS wages and the markets won't continue to lend to us for that purpose

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

you accuse the government of lacking basic economics yet contend we can keep borrowing at the rate we are currently doing so, ergo the pot is calling the kettle black

we can't keep borrowing to pay PS wages and the markets won't continue to lend to us for that purpose

Yes we can borrow to fund stimulus, thus creating jobs, thus brinign in tax revenue and paying off the debt.
Its called basic Keynesian theory.

masteroftherealm

nesf wrote: »

Like the above poster those ranking are woefully out of date since they're based on the CIA World Fact Book that has Ireland's unemployment rate at 6% which isn't exactly current. Really, wiki is grand for data but check the source of that data often for economic data and labour market data it is a year behind the current figures (or several years for some stats).

Yep, I was merely extrapolating from that level not claiming its current.

As a mod can you point me to a suitable current source with rock hard figures Ive found it ha hard one to find on debt to GDP ratio, both including and excluding NAMA?

My point stands that we could continue to borrow for stimulus and still not approach the debt to GDP ratios of many other countries, BTW I dont see any figures on that 83% ratio. Unless it includes NAMA its too far out there to be realistic.

masteroftherealm

Proof that it can and does happen:

Japan announces 81 billion dollars in stimulus:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8400836.stm

Japans current Debt to GDP Ratio:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_public_debt


170%.

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Yes we can borrow to fund stimulus, thus creating jobs, thus brinign in tax revenue and paying off the debt.
Its called basic Keynesian theory.

it's true that we can do that but when we are borrowing too much to fund current expenditure it is not that simple to say we can just go to the markets and borrow more to fund stimulus. It may sound easy in Keynes theory but it simply won't work in practice

the Japan example is not comparable to a small economy like us too. It is one of the largest export economies in the world so they are a good bet to repay their debt, they also have their own currency which will make it easier to repay, and they also already have the largest public debt in the world so they are hardly and model economy to base a plan on.....

by the way here's a quote

"Our country's finances are in an extremely serious state,"

(that's from the Japanese Finance minister today)


and here's a few more.....

"The economy is likely to only grow modestly even with the new stimulus, but the stimulus size of 7.2 trillion yen seems to be reasonable as the government cannot afford to spend massively and worsen fiscal conditions," said Akiyoshi Takumori, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Asset Management.


“I argue there was no need to compile the stimulus at
this timing and especially at the expense of an already
worsening deficit problem, to being with,” said Yuichi Kodama,
chief economist in Tokyo at Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance Co.,
Japan’s third-largest life insurer. “This may simply enlarge
the future risk to the fiscal position in Japan.”

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
forecast Japan’s debt burden will swell to twice the size of
gross domestic product in 2010.

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

it's true that we can do that but when we are borrowing too much to fund current expenditure it is not that simple to say we can just go to the markets and borrow more to fund stimulus. It may sound easy in Keynes theory but it simply won't work in practice

the Japan example is not comparable to a small economy like us too. It is one of the largest export economies in the world so they are a good bet to repay their debt, they also have their own currency which will make it easier to repay, and they also already have the largest public debt in the world so they are hardly and model economy to base a plan on.....

by the way here's a quote



(that's from the Japanese Finance minister today)


and here's a few more.....

I really think you need to look up your facts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932009_Keynesian_resurgence

Most of the counties who have now exited recession did so by following a Kensian model. We are a smaller country therefore our borrowings would be less.

As much as FF and this country's propaganda would love you to think otherwise, Kensian theory and a stimulus backed recovery is a proven and solid way of recovery in the current climate.

Idbatterim

How in god name are another 3 or 4 budgets that take 4 billion out of the economy going to pass, following the uproar over this one?!

ei.sdraob

Idbatterim wrote: »

How in god name are another 3 or 4 budgets that take 4 billion out of the economy going to pass, following the uproar over this one?!

cut welfare to and PS to Uk levels and there we go

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

I really think you need to look up your facts

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008%E2%80%932009_Keynesian_resurgence

Most of the counties who have now exited recession did so by following a Kensian model. We are a smaller country therefore our borrowings would be less.

As much as FF and this country's propaganda would love you to think otherwise, Kensian theory and a stimulus backed recovery is a proven and solid way of recovery in the current climate.

my facts are sound, i don't disagree that running deficits in downturns as per Keynes is a proven plan for many economies - it just doesn't translate to ireland as a one-size fits all plan

the examples from your wiki article are US, UK and China -- there are massive differences between these economies are ours (ie: contol of their own currency for one) - they can't be used as proof that another borrowing splurge will benefit ireland - we are already borrowing a huge amount to just run the country and pay day to day bills, there isn't an endless pot of money that we can borrow from

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

my facts are sound, i don't disagree that running deficits in downturns as per Keynes is a proven plan for many economies - it just doesn't translate to ireland as a one-size fits all plan

the examples from your wiki article are US, UK and China -- there are massive differences between these economies are ours (ie: contol of their own currency for one) - they can't be used as proof that another borrowing splurge will benefit ireland - we are already borrowing a huge amount to just run the country and pay day to day bills, there isn't an endless pot of money that we can borrow from

Please show me where the non endless pot of money isnt?
Please show me proof that stimulus would not bring us out of recession?
Please show me an economic breakdown of why Keynsian Economics would not apply t Ireland?

Basically back up your arguments or they are null and void.

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Please show me where the non endless pot of money isnt?

we can't print money to fund debt like the UK and US have done, we are reliant on international markets to fund us at every increasing rates of interest - at some point they will stop lending or charge to high a rate that will mortgage our future


Please show me proof that stimulus would not bring us out of recession?

i can't fortell the future no more than you can......stimulus may bring us out of recession, but we can't afford it at the moment until we slow the current rate of borrowing for day to day. you used Japan as an example earlier on.....their economy has pretty much stagnated over the past years despite numerous stimulus plans


Please show me an economic breakdown of why Keynsian Economics would not apply t Ireland?

we can't sustain the acceleration in borrowing - simple as that


Basically back up your arguments or they are null and void.

get off your high horse ffs!, all you have done is post wiki articles :rolleyes:

i've already explained why examples in UK, US, Japan and China don't relate to ireland in the current situation - the textbook isn't always right

K-9

There is limits to what we can borrow too when we are spending nearly twice as much as we take in. We'll be charged higher interest than the States or Japan.


Interest repayments have nearly doubled in the last year and are predicted to go from €2 Billion to €4 Billion next year.

woodseb

K-9 wrote: »

There is limits to what we can borrow too when we are spending nearly twice as much as we take in. We'll be charged higher interest than the States or Japan.


Interest repayments have nearly doubled in the last year and are predicted to go from €2 Billion to €4 Billion next year.

+1

not to mention the risks of downgrades which will make it hard to borrow again - have we seen what has happened to Greece

masteroftherealm

K-9 wrote: »

There is limits to what we can borrow too when we are spending nearly twice as much as we take in. We'll be charged higher interest than the States or Japan.


Interest repayments have nearly doubled in the last year and are predicted to go from €2 Billion to €4 Billion next year.

Please please show me this 50% deficit, hard facts and figures please.
Governments own figures place us at 11 per cent this year and 13.5 per cent next year in deficit.
Please stop plucking figures from nowhere. And where is your proof of our higher interest rates. You cannot parrot government propaganda without independent facts to back them up, I will accept even the barest of facts.

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

get off your high horse ffs!, all you have done is post wiki articles :rolleyes:

i've already explained why examples in UK, US, Japan and China don't relate to ireland in the current situation - the textbook isn't always right

We cant sustain the borrowing, prove it!! no-one in the international finance market has said that they are going to stop lending to Ireland, quite the opposite.Please. No-one is saying we keep borrowing forever. I am not on my high horse, I have a background in International Business (Ba) and spent years running a business so I am merely pointing out the inadequacy's in your statements. Only thing your doing is reiterating what you''ve been told in the media. No facts, no real substance behind your arguments.

Please refute my points not my character as I believe is in the charter of this forum.

K-9

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Please please show me this 50% deficit, hard facts and figures please.
Governments own figures place us at 11 per cent this year and 13.5 per cent next year in deficit.
Please stop plucking figures from nowhere. And where is your proof of our higher interest rates. You cannot parrot government propaganda without independent facts to back them up, I will accept even the barest of facts.

Excuse me, you quoted a Wiki article that showed our borrowing at 34 or something percent!

Jaysus, do you watch the news? Our Revenues are less than €31 Billion. We are spending near €55 Billion, not counting NAMA!

Do I really have to get figures on it? Its basic stuff.

How do you think borrowing went from the 34 to 86% or whatever it is now, in one year?

masteroftherealm

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0128/1232923370007.html

Irish borrowings to hit 60% of GDP in 2010 is the highest I can find, one of the lowest in the EU.

Your basic economics fail, public debt is measured as a percentage of GDP and due to our very low previous debt we are in a very good position to borrow at the moment even with S&P downrating us to AA, many commentators feel that the downrating was due to the lack of stimulus in the economy.

woodseb

let me just say i am probably more qualified than you to debate this issue if you are using your experience and education as some type of basis that your opinions are more valid.

i haven't said anything about your character....despite you suggesting that i am led by the media or FF.....you are however a tad arrogant to state your opinion and then demand i come up with proof or my opinion is 'null and void'

how about we change the dynamics of this arguement and you explain where this endless pot of money is? because you haven't yet

masteroftherealm

Its called the international money markey, we still have a triple A rating with most credit agencys and there are plenty of counties out there grabbing up international debt. If we wanted it we could have it plain and simple.

ei.sdraob

masteroftherealm wrote: »

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2009/0128/1232923370007.html

Irish borrowings to hit 60% of GDP in 2010 is the highest I can find, one of the lowest in the EU.

Your basic economics fail, public debt is measured as a percentage of GDP and due to our very low previous debt we are in a very good position to borrow at the moment even with S&P downrating us to AA, many commentators feel that the downrating was due to the lack of stimulus in the economy.

sigh looks like you basic economics is a FAIL

talking about irish GDP figure is useless, considering that:
* GDP increases with government borrowing (yes thats right)
* a large portion of our GDP is money being washed thru Ireland due to low corpo tax, money that the government cant touch/tax as it will drain away


i posted a graph before, we are the riskiest and still the riskiest of all eurozone members to lend to, well above Germany

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Its called the international money markey, we still have a triple A rating with most credit agencys and there are plenty of counties out there grabbing up international debt. If we wanted it we could have it plain and simple.

yeah, but its not endless is it? at some point it becomes destructive

we keep borrowing without sorting out the current expenditure first and CDS will keep going up along with interest rates, we risk downgrades (as with greece today) which will reduce the pool of investors who can only invest in A rated debt, also the ECB will soon stop accepting below A rated debt as collateral further reducing the pool of investors willing to buy debt - the cost will keep going up - i think any stimulus would be temporary followed by pain at repaying the expensive debt, not to mention the EU rules we are supposed to be following on deficits

masteroftherealm

ei.sdraob wrote: »

sigh looks like you basic economics is a FAIL

talking about irish GDP figure is useless, considering that:
* GDP increases with government borrowing (yes thats right)
* a large portion of our GDP is money being washed thru Ireland due to low corpo tax, money that the government cant touch/tax as it will drain away


i posted a graph before, we are the riskiest and still the riskiest of all eurozone members to lend to, well above Germany

It is still the main and pretty much only way that public debt is measured, I am not arguing that it may be flawed but its the main comparison system.

masteroftherealm

woodseb wrote: »

yeah, but its not endless is it? at some point it becomes destructive

we keep borrowing without sorting out the current expenditure first and CDS will keep going up along with interest rates, we risk downgrades (as with greece today) which will reduce the pool of investors who can only invest in A rated debt, also the ECB will soon stop accepting below A rated debt as collateral further reducing the pool of investors willing to buy debt - the cost will keep going up - i think any stimulus would be temporary followed by pain at repaying the expensive debt, not to mention the EU rules we are supposed to be following on deficits

Eu rules which have been bent for most other countries and which most agree should be abolished.
Yes temporary spending in order to stimulate a jobs market, thus increasing future revenue is the tenents of Keynsian theory.......

woodseb

masteroftherealm wrote: »

Eu rules which have been bent for most other countries and which most agree should be abolished.
Yes temporary spending in order to stimulate a jobs market, thus increasing future revenue is the tenents of Keynsian theory.......

how much temporary spending do you think is needed and how much could we conceivably borrow?