Cowans crowning moment and cunning FF's greatest escape: Budget 2010

--amadeus--

Step back from the heat of the debate and take a look at what is happening... The country is insolvent, the economy is in the doldrums. Unemployment is rising and there is civil unrest in the air. For the first time in the history of modern Ireland we have an armed public force whose rank and file members are openly talking about taking unconstitutional action in defiance of thier superiors. The unions are baying for blood and the Government is plumbing new depths of unpopularity every week. And now we face into what we have been warned for months will be the "toughest budget ever".

With this budget Cowan really cannot lose.

The Public Sector:
Will get hammered. They will face pay cuts and possibly forced redundancies. But we know that they put a deal on teh table and the reforms they committed to. So you can be sure that everything taken in the budget will be available to be won back *if* the reforms are delivered on.

And - almost no matter how bad the cuts are - there will be a sigh of relief from the PS that "things could have been worse"

So it will be business as usual as far as they are concerned - the unions will have a face saving deal available to make and PS workers will know that after a bit of short term pain normal service will resume.

And so while they will crib a bit they won't be too unhappy

The Private Sector
Are ecstatic that the PS unions have been put in thier place. A few stealth taxes and a small clobbering for higher earners are acceptable (we all have to do our bit after all). And the bulk of the pain is being carried by the PS (because we've all forgotten the interim budget) so the Private Sector on the whole will welcome the budget.

And IBEC, ISME and the employer groups will row behind it because they will see it as a "union busting" budget. Having faced down the PS unions and pushed through the pay cuts despite unprecedented strikes and threats FF and Cowan will have shown themsleves to be strong, business friendly leaders, able to make hard choices.

Social Welfare
Will be battered. But not the Pensioners (who lobby well) - the main pain will be aimed at under 23s and in particular those on long term welfare. Who - I am sure by coincidence - are the demographic least likely to vote.

Europe
Will be looking for evidence of commitment to bringing a rampaging deficit somewhat under control. By bringing in a business friendly budget (scrappage deals, not taxing labour) and bringing the unions to heel FF can claim to be running things straight from teh centre right rule book, buying good grace from teh ECB.

The Greens
Having been close to collapsing teh Govt it was vital that the Greens were kept happy. Carbon taxes and (by all accounts) metered domestic water supplies are key planks in the Green manifesto. This allows them to stay in power while saying to thier own powerbase "look, we delivered!". And of course FF can say "we didn't want to bring in a new tax, it's teh Greens fault...". It has win / win written all over it

Meanwhile
As a small, open economy whose main monetary levers are in teh hands of the ECB there is little we can really do to to control our economy. When teh world tanked we tanked, but worse. But when teh world rose we rose higher - and with a falling cost base and weakened unions there is no reason to suspect that a rising world economy won't drag us back up again through International investment. Major economies are already out of recession and most commentators expect us to follow suit by Q3 2010 by the latest.

Just in time for FF to claim the credit, bank 12 months of growth to enable a soft budget and call an election.

And I bet we all fall for it all over again.

I despise thier policies but I admire thier cunning.

nyarlothothep

--amadeus-- wrote: »

I despise thier policies but I admire thier cunning.

The cute hooer mentaily speaketh. Cunning isn't a positive trait, its an exploitative one, can't really see anything admirable in it. While some of those predictions may come true, the credibility of FF is shattered, I don't think they'll be getting in come the next election, though its one shouldn't underestimate the whimsy of voters. I'll go with the guesstimate that the economy won't be improving in any significant way for the next 6-12 years. In addition the green shoots in the major economies, which are emergent, may be phantoms, the same expectations for recovery were evident in the 30s, though the two situations are different.

gandalf

Do you honestly believe that people are going to forgive FF even if they pull a rabbit out of the hat with tomorrows budget. They are on for a beating next election and the Greens should cease to exist as a party in the Dail.

jackthekipper

--amadeus-- wrote: »

Step back from the heat of the debate and take a look at what is happening... The country is insolvent, the economy is in the doldrums. Unemployment is rising and there is civil unrest in the air. For the first time in the history of modern Ireland we have an armed public force whose rank and file members are openly talking about taking unconstitutional action in defiance of thier superiors. The unions are baying for blood and the Government is plumbing new depths of unpopularity every week. And now we face into what we have been warned for months will be the "toughest budget ever".

With this budget Cowan really cannot lose.

The Public Sector:
Will get hammered. They will face pay cuts and possibly forced redundancies. But we know that they put a deal on teh table and the reforms they committed to. So you can be sure that everything taken in the budget will be available to be won back *if* the reforms are delivered on.

And - almost no matter how bad the cuts are - there will be a sigh of relief from the PS that "things could have been worse"

So it will be business as usual as far as they are concerned - the unions will have a face saving deal available to make and PS workers will know that after a bit of short term pain normal service will resume.

And so while they will crib a bit they won't be too unhappy

The Private Sector
Are ecstatic that the PS unions have been put in thier place. A few stealth taxes and a small clobbering for higher earners are acceptable (we all have to do our bit after all). And the bulk of the pain is being carried by the PS (because we've all forgotten the interim budget) so the Private Sector on the whole will welcome the budget.

And IBEC, ISME and the employer groups will row behind it because they will see it as a "union busting" budget. Having faced down the PS unions and pushed through the pay cuts despite unprecedented strikes and threats FF and Cowan will have shown themsleves to be strong, business friendly leaders, able to make hard choices.

Social Welfare
Will be battered. But not the Pensioners (who lobby well) - the main pain will be aimed at under 23s and in particular those on long term welfare. Who - I am sure by coincidence - are the demographic least likely to vote.

Europe
Will be looking for evidence of commitment to bringing a rampaging deficit somewhat under control. By bringing in a business friendly budget (scrappage deals, not taxing labour) and bringing the unions to heel FF can claim to be running things straight from teh centre right rule book, buying good grace from teh ECB.

The Greens
Having been close to collapsing teh Govt it was vital that the Greens were kept happy. Carbon taxes and (by all accounts) metered domestic water supplies are key planks in the Green manifesto. This allows them to stay in power while saying to thier own powerbase "look, we delivered!". And of course FF can say "we didn't want to bring in a new tax, it's teh Greens fault...". It has win / win written all over it

Meanwhile
As a small, open economy whose main monetary levers are in teh hands of the ECB there is little we can really do to to control our economy. When teh world tanked we tanked, but worse. But when teh world rose we rose higher - and with a falling cost base and weakened unions there is no reason to suspect that a rising world economy won't drag us back up again through International investment. Major economies are already out of recession and most commentators expect us to follow suit by Q3 2010 by the latest.

Just in time for FF to claim the credit, bank 12 months of growth to enable a soft budget and call an election.

And I bet we all fall for it all over again.

I despise thier policies but I admire thier cunning.
I don't care what they do but I'll vote for them no matter what becasue I'm form a FF house.

Fixed your post

Mr.Micro

There is no way FF will have the economy fixed before the next election. Just think after the budget to morrow it will be a lot worse for many. For FF to get elected again as a majority we would need another boom and have to have amnesia about the destruction of our economy( oh and that big debt of 90 billion or so brushed under the rug for now ) and all the other things. Even if the budget works it will be Lenny who gets the credit and not Biffo.

--amadeus--

nyarlothothep wrote: »

The cute hooer mentaily speaketh. Cunning isn't a positive trait, its an exploitative one, can't really see anything admirable in it. While some of those predictions may come true, the credibility of FF is shattered, I don't think they'll be getting in come the next election, though its one shouldn't underestimate the whimsy of voters. I'll go with the guesstimate that the economy won't be improving in any significant way for the next 6-12 years. In addition the green shoots in the major economies, which are emergent, may be phantoms, the same expectations for recovery were evident in the 30s, though the two situations are different.

A lack of cunning in politics is fatal. You're right, in ordinary people being cunning isn't an admirable trait. But while you might hate Chelsea every now and again you have to admire a goal by Drogba - FF are like that. I don't like them but they have an uncanny ability to make Irish voters vote for them With the right spin this budget could do just that.

gandalf wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that people are going to forgive FF even if they pull a rabbit out of the hat with tomorrows budget. They are on for a beating next election and the Greens should cease to exist as a party in the Dail.

How many times have we all thought that FF were finished only for them to win an election?

jackthekipper wrote: »

Fixed your post

Thank you for that cuttingly insightful riposte. As it happens I'd vote for Dustin before I'd vote FF but please feel free to assume that a piece of analysis that doesn't outright condem FF must come from a FF voter.

--amadeus--

Mr.Micro wrote: »

There is no way FF will have the economy fixed before the next election.

That's my point - they won't. But with a bit of spin, an internationally driven recovery and a soft budget just before an election they can *claim* to have fixed teh economy. And that'll be enough for thier core support

nyarlothothep

--amadeus-- wrote: »

A lack of cunning in politics is fatal. You're right, in ordinary people being cunning isn't an admirable trait. But while you might hate Chelsea every now and again you have to admire a goal by Drogba - FF are like that. I don't like them but they have an uncanny ability to make Irish voters vote for them With the right spin this budget could do just that.

I agree, thats the problem with politics, its why elections are circuses. I think the main reason people voted ff once again in 07 was that the economy appeared to be strong, this was with regards to people who didn't take an interest in the economy, no one wants to rock the boat in this instance.

Dannyboy83

I made this chart from the McCarthy report earlier today.

When I look at this (and I know these figures are out somewhat), and think about everything that's facing us, between job losses and deflation etc., I think its just way too optimistic.

We have so much more cutting to do before we get competitive and things start to turn round, and thats before we ever think about paying back the debt (presuming NAMA even worked as expected)

Remember McCarthy recommended 5.7 billion worth and we're only achieving 4, and 1/4 of that is reduction in capital spending

Here the chart:

Dannyboy83

--amadeus-- wrote: »

How many times have we all thought that FF were finished only for them to win an election?

In the good times, 'd say maybe.

But we've fallen from such a high point/2nd richest in the world we were told:
Our economy is screwed
Our banks are screwed and passing it onto us
Our politicians are corrupt/useless (e.g. JOD is 1 among many)
Our clergy are criminal (not being prosecuted)
Our towns are flooded
1/2 million unemployed & growing
Average Industrial wage still can't buy a person a house
NAMA/FAS/HSE
Massive excise duties/VAT/Rip off republic/smuggling/cross border shopping
foreclosures/homeless/falling quality of life
We can't pay our own public service/welfare
Citizens are trying to emigrate/brain drain

Even the world cup, people have no hope

I cannot see a FF victory until the next generation of people who don't remember this are old enough to vote.

Zambia

gandalf wrote: »

Do you honestly believe that people are going to forgive FF even if they pull a rabbit out of the hat with tomorrows budget. They are on for a beating next election and the Greens should cease to exist as a party in the Dail.

Normally to beat someone you need something to beat them with. Sadly I agree with you but see no viable alternative in Irish Politics.

bmaxi

Zambia232 wrote: »

Normally to beat someone you need something to beat them with. Sadly I agree with you but see no viable alternative in Irish Politics.

I hear this type of thing all the time. I'm not an advocate of any political party though I make no secret of my abhorrence of FF and all they stand for.
The analogy is. You have a life threatening disease and the medicine you are taking is not helping, indeed is contributing to your decline.
Question; Do you continue to take the same medicine, which you know is harming you, or do you try another?
Will you be happy, if you arrive at your deathbed having spent all your assets on the quacks who prescribed your medicine and find your children and grandchildren have inherited the same disease, and are being treated by the same quacks?
Or will you try another medicine?

walshb

What is all the hulaballo about the budget. Cuts had to be made, plain and simple; no matter who you are in society, everyone should have to take a cut. We are all in this together.

JohnMc1

nyarlothothep wrote: »

The cute hooer mentaily speaketh. Cunning isn't a positive trait, its an exploitative one, can't really see anything admirable in it. While some of those predictions may come true, the credibility of FF is shattered, I don't think they'll be getting in come the next election, though its one shouldn't underestimate the whimsy of voters.

I remember the last election. Months before the election FFs popularity ratings were in the toilets and suddenly a week or 2 before the election tehir popularity numbers started rising again. I think some Irish are deluded that since FF were in power during the Celtic Tiger periods that somehow FF will be able to restore them to the Promised Land.

Unfortunately the Irish constantly voting for FF truly is a case of [Sometimes you get what you deserve]

Essexboy

walshb wrote: »

What is all the hulaballo about the budget. Cuts had to be made, plain and simple; no matter who you are in society, everyone should have to take a cut. We are all in this together.

We are all in this together.

Liam Byrne

Essexboy wrote: »

We are all in this together.

....unless, of course, you're a banker, or a developer, or a politician :mad:

Bankers : still have their ridiculously high-paid jobs, even though they've proven that they don't have the expertise required

Developers : need to pay back the billions that they borrowed (tough ****) but don't have it so will go bankrupt / transfer stuff to their wives, etc, thereby shafting us all with NAMA failing

Politicians : even the so-called "cut" in Cowen's wages was a con-job....he was ALREADY cut some of it, but they "re-announced" that, and tried to make it look better (to us) than it was

NO-ONE; and I mean NO-ONE, who helped land us in this mess should be paid more than €150,000 a year, and most of them should be fired.

JohnMc1

Personally I don't think Cowen should be getting anything. He saw this coming when he was Minister of Finance and still did nothing [Hell he even told the public to tighten to belt straps while they were trying to vote themselves raises]

--amadeus--

Early days yet but.... Commentators are talking about a "business friendly budget" and there was chatter in the press about it sending the "right message internationally". Retailers are pleased with the cuts to VAT and alcohol (though obviuolsy they would like more). Private sector are pleased that the PS pay cuts were pushed through and the unions are stamping thier feet but not balloting for strikes. And the Greens get to claim the carbon tax, water meters and even teh scrappage deal so they're happy.

All as predicted.

But is teh public going to fall for it?

Well I suggest you take a look at teh polls in teh Economy sub forum. Early days yet but:

Do you think The Government were right to cut Public Sector Pay? Yes, 58%

Was the Government right to cut Social Welfare? Yes, 54%

Did the Government take the right course to get back on track? Yes, or partial yes 85%

and lastly:

Are you more or less likely to vote FF/Green after the Budget? Yes, but I wouldn't have voted FF/Green before the Budget 22%

Early days and small sample polls but if we get an economic lift in 2010 the next election will be a lot closer than predicted...

walshb

Cowen took a fairly hefty pay cut in all honesty.

Now, as a leader, to me he just doesn't do it.

hallelujajordan

walshb wrote: »

Now, as a leader, to me he just doesn't do it.

Lisbon - Delivered
NAMA - Delivered
3 subsequent mega-tough budgets - Delivered
Coalition - Stabilised
Economy - Stabilised (If you accept that the 4bn in cuts will stabilise the economy)
Unemployment - Stabilised
Unions - Faced down (for the first time that I can remember)

If you judge Cowen by his appearance on TV or by the nob-nation profile its relatively easy to say that he is not a good leader, but I believe his record stands for itself. He has managed to make some very tough decisions this year while at the same time holding together a government that includes a shaky green party, and a whole load of independents that need close TLC.

Many commentators predicted that he, FF and the government would not survive this year !

BlaasForRafa

--amadeus-- wrote: »

And the bulk of the pain is being carried by the PS (because we've all forgotten the interim budget) so the Private Sector on the whole will welcome the budget.

So in effect this is yet ANOTHER Public sector whingefest?

Not that I have any love for FF/Greens, I actually voted for FG/Labour last time as it was obvious that FF had let things go out of control. The one good thing amongst many bad is that finally finally Lenihan has stood up to the PS and rowed back some of the stupid benchmarking agreements that were made a few years ago.

walshb

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Lisbon - Delivered
NAMA - Delivered
3 subsequent mega-tough budgets - Delivered
Coalition - Stabilised
Economy - Stabilised (If you accept that the 4bn in cuts will stabilise the economy)
Unemployment - Stabilised
Unions - Faced down (for the first time that I can remember)

If you judge Cowen by his appearance on TV or by the nob-nation profile its relatively easy to say that he is not a good leader, but I believe his record stands for itself. He has managed to make some very tough decisions this year while at the same time holding together a government that includes a shaky green party, and a whole load of independents that need close TLC.

Many commentators predicted that he, FF and the government would not survive this year !

Some of the worst leaders in history also delivered.

His whole style and demeanor and connection with the electorate doesn't
do it. You cannot single him as the stabiliser for all you mention, just like critics cannot single him alone for the recession across the globe.

There is a hell of a lot more to being a leader of people than a few budgets and NAMA.

As for surviving, Irish governments almost always survive, no matter what
the crisis or scandal. We usually stand for bloody anything.

So, NO, Cowen doesn't get credit for surviving. Having a hard bloody neck isn't
what I would call admirable

Ulysses Gaze

I can't aree with that. My reasons are below.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Lisbon - Delivered -Because the Irish people copped on that without the EU Safety net (i.e. with just FF to govern us) we'd be screwed.

NAMA - Delivered - against the wishes of the vast majority of the Irish people. We have no clue how NAMA will operate, it has little transparency and is predicated on pie-in-the-sky forecasting. Hardly a victory. If he had ordered a referendum on this, which he should have, it would have been soundly defeated.

3 subsequent mega-tough budgets - Delivered - More a needs must scenario, don't you think? Otherwise Aloha! IMF. And the opposition knew it.

Coalition - Stabilised - Only because the Greens knew they were staring into the abyss if they went to the electorate.

Economy - Stabilised (If you accept that the 4bn in cuts will stabilise the economy) - I don't accept that. Interest rates will rise next year, retail is going to take another hammering and we're going to lose more jobs. And don't buy the FF spoof we 'only' need to cut €3 billion next year. We have to find another €4 billion in cuts this time next year and another €3 billion the year after.


Unemployment - Stabilised - BS. Retail is going to be hammered in the first quarter of next year. And where is the job creation FF promised?

Unions - Faced down (for the first time that I can remember) - Only because the ECB got on to the blower and demanded that the 'Holiday Pay' deal was not viable.

Hillel

walshb wrote: »

We are all in this together.

If only! What we have, we hold, appears to be the motto. Cut and burn, but not me.

IMO he could, and should have made deeper cuts to Social Welfare.

freewheeler

bmaxi wrote: »

I hear this type of thing all the time. I'm not an advocate of any political party though I make no secret of my abhorrence of FF and all they stand for.
The analogy is. You have a life threatening disease and the medicine you are taking is not helping, indeed is contributing to your decline.
Question; Do you continue to take the same medicine, which you know is harming you, or do you try another?
Will you be happy, if you arrive at your deathbed having spent all your assets on the quacks who prescribed your medicine and find your children and grandchildren have inherited the same disease, and are being treated by the same quacks?
Or will you try another medicine?

you are 100% correct!:D

Hillel

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

So in effect this is yet ANOTHER Public sector whingefest?

And, the same posters, again and again, when they should be doing the jobs they are paid to do. Lots of room, still, for more productivity.

freewheeler

--amadeus-- wrote: »

Early days yet but.... Commentators are talking about a "business friendly budget" and there was chatter in the press about it sending the "right message internationally". Retailers are pleased with the cuts to VAT and alcohol (though obviuolsy they would like more). Private sector are pleased that the PS pay cuts were pushed through and the unions are stamping thier feet but not balloting for strikes. And the Greens get to claim the carbon tax, water meters and even teh scrappage deal so they're happy.

All as predicted.

But is teh public going to fall for it?

Well I suggest you take a look at teh polls in teh Economy sub forum. Early days yet but:

Do you think The Government were right to cut Public Sector Pay? Yes, 58%

Was the Government right to cut Social Welfare? Yes, 54%

Did the Government take the right course to get back on track? Yes, or partial yes 85%

and lastly:

Are you more or less likely to vote FF/Green after the Budget? Yes, but I wouldn't have voted FF/Green before the Budget 22%

Early days and small sample polls but if we get an economic lift in 2010 the next election will be a lot closer than predicted...

Never underestimate the ignorance of the Trish electorate...:(

freewheeler

freewheeler wrote: »

Never underestimate the ignorance of the Trish electorate...:(

Irish electorate even...:mad:

Eutow

--amadeus-- wrote: »

But is teh public going to fall for it?


Are you more or less likely to vote FF/Green after the Budget? Yes, but I wouldn't have voted FF/Green before the Budget 22%

Early days and small sample polls but if we get an economic lift in 2010 the next election will be a lot closer than predicted...

Unless we find a way of stopping this 22% from voting at the next election, and all their fellow FF supporting gombeens, FF will get in at the next election. If the mess we find ourselves in is not enough to stop people from continually voting in the same incompetents, then Ireland deserves all future misfortune it will inevitably suffer.

hallelujajordan

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

I can't aree with that. My reasons are below.

Originally Posted by hallelujajordan

Lisbon - Delivered -Because the Irish people copped on that without the EU Safety net (i.e. with just FF to govern us) we'd be screwed.

NAMA - Delivered - against the wishes of the vast majority of the Irish people. We have no clue how NAMA will operate, it has little transparency and is predicated on pie-in-the-sky forecasting. Hardly a victory. If he had ordered a referendum on this, which he should have, it would have been soundly defeated.

3 subsequent mega-tough budgets - Delivered - More a needs must scenario, don't you think? Otherwise Aloha! IMF. And the opposition knew it.

Coalition - Stabilised - Only because the Greens knew they were staring into the abyss if they went to the electorate.

Economy - Stabilised (If you accept that the 4bn in cuts will stabilise the economy) - I don't accept that. Interest rates will rise next year, retail is going to take another hammering and we're going to lose more jobs. And don't buy the FF spoof we 'only' need to cut €3 billion next year. We have to find another €4 billion in cuts this time next year and another €3 billion the year after.


Unemployment - Stabilised - BS. Retail is going to be hammered in the first quarter of next year. And where is the job creation FF promised?

Unions - Faced down (for the first time that I can remember) - Only because the ECB got on to the blower and demanded that the 'Holiday Pay' deal was not viable.

You miss my point . . I'm not arguing that I agree with every move the government have and will make, I certainly don't but we are talking about Cowen's ability as a leader.

I am a FF member and supporter and I fully expected the coalition to break down and for Cowen to have failed to stabilise things but he hasn't failed and the fact of the matter is that things are more stable now than they were in April. For that, he deserves a level of credit whether or not you agree with his policies.

hallelujajordan

Eutow wrote: »

Unless we find a way of stopping this 22% from voting at the next election, and all their fellow FF supporting gombeens, FF will get in at the next election. If the mess we find ourselves in is not enough to stop people from continually voting in the same incompetents, then Ireland deserves all future misfortune it will inevitably suffer.

I was in the UK on Tuesday and picked up a copy of the Times on the way back. Interesting to compare our analysis of our situation and the governments reaction to the analysis from outside of Ireland. . .

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/article6948046.ece