The "live as it happens" Budget comment thread....

frman

Rb wrote: »

If you stick another €0.50 onto the price of cigarettes or booze, do you honestly think that will send people fleeing to the black market?

Yes I do.

50c on a packet of fags for someone that smokes 20 per day is EUR182.50 extra per year.

Rb

Liam79 wrote: »

So lemmie see......no tax on Primark/dunnes runners....but tax on nike's ? Ok....so what about say....middle of the road runners...say....hi-tec...do we tax them??? And what if a new company start selling runners in Ireland....who decides what "level" they are at.....whats to stop them selling them for 20 euros for a few months, avoiding the tax bracket, and then incresing them 3 fold.....???

Well as I said, do it based on price. If a company increases the price of their product, then they get taxed. Same as if you get a wage increase and it pushes you from the basic tax tier to the higher tax tier.

Good point about companies opening up here, if they're producing and operating here then perhaps they could be left tax exempt in order to encourage people to "buy Irish" as well as encouraging companies to set up here.

rasper wrote: »

But the country is awash with illegal cigarettes that the government does not get a penny from, as usual our government refuses to learn from the past or other countries experiences and instead makes tobacco more lucrative than cocaine, well done fianne failure

The country is indeed awash with illegal cigarettes, but tax revenue from tobacco products is still extremely strong and €0.50 is not going to turn much more people to only buying illegally, or even quitting. Those who want to jump ship because of the price of cigs have already done so (I know I did).

frman wrote:

Yes I do.

50c on a packet of fags for someone that smokes 20 per day is EUR182.50 extra per year.

Unless you can show that a €.50 increase in the price will cause enough people to stop buying legitimately to outweigh the extra revenue gained, then it should be increased. If there's even an extra €10 in tax revenue (total) gained from putting it up then it should be put up.

seamus

Liam79 wrote: »

Seamus, make it a 50E cut off point....then every kids clothes company in ireland will price their goods up or down to 49.99 ...............

Why would they price their goods up? That will just depress sales if the goods were previously at a lower price.

I think you also underestimate the importance of image to some retailers and manufacturers. Brown Thomas's high prices don't reflect the quality of their merchandise, for example.

cson

frman wrote: »

Yes I do.

50c on a packet of fags for someone that smokes 20 per day is EUR182.50 extra per year.

Yes but do we want the short term gain of more tax receipts from steady tobacco sales or would we rather the long term implications of having to finance a health system to deal with the inevitable fallout from such consumption?

I'm for taxing alcohol and cigarettes.

MMD

Rb wrote: »

If you stick another €0.50 onto the price of cigarettes or booze, do you honestly think that will send people fleeing to the black market? most definitely

I haven't bought cigs in the ROI in about 5 months at this stage (duty free, not illegal). At an rate of about €2 above EU average in terms of cost, it figures people will not buy cigs in this country if they have to.

I don't buy into the fact that the Govt pump the tabacco revenue into the health service..it just enters another public finance black hole, therefore is unjustifiable to tax them so high.

Here's hoping Lenihan reduces the excise duty on cigs today.

cson

seamus wrote: »

I think you also underestimate the importance of image to some retailers and manufacturers. Brown Thomas's high prices don't reflect the quality of their merchandise, for example.

I would largely agree with that. A perception seems to have been concieved in the Celtic Tiger that the more an item costs the better quality it is. That is not always the case. Take polo shirts; there is very little discernable difference between a Tommy Hilfiger polo and a CS Sport one from Penneys. Yet the price discrepancy is > €50. It's a snobbery thing fo the most part.

macplaxton

I'm for taxing cigarettes and alcohol at rate which optimises tax receipts, rather than displace sales to personal imports and the black market.

I'd expect the tax will be left as it is though.

Rb

Do those saying that a €0.50 increase onto the price of cigarettes will turn enough people to the black market or quitting to result in a net loss in the tax revenue from said product have any empirical evidence to support it?

Liam79

seamus wrote: »

Why would they price their goods up? That will just depress sales if the goods were previously at a lower price.

I think you also underestimate the importance of image to some retailers and manufacturers. Brown Thomas's high prices don't reflect the quality of their merchandise, for example.

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

cson

Aside from the border counties and people lucky enough to be able to holiday, the vast majority will still buy their cigarettes in the Republic. I'd imagine any increase of less than €1 would have a negligible effect on tax receipts.

cson

Liam79 wrote: »

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

Collusion = Illegal.

Sorted......

Rb

Liam79 wrote: »

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

No, just no. You don't drive a taxi by any chance?

MaceFace

Rb wrote: »

Do those saying that a €0.50 increase onto the price of cigarettes will turn enough people to the black market or quitting to result in a net loss in the tax revenue from said product have any empirical evidence to support it?

I doubt they do and from the way people are talking about it, black markets ciggies are all over the place. I have seen one person selling this on the streets in the last year and that was outside the Ilac.

Very naive responses and I bet most people who want the excise reduced would also be in favour of legalising canabis.

cson

MaceFace wrote: »

Very naive responses and I bet most people who want the excise reduced would also be in favour of legalising canabis.

That's not as ludicrous an idea as it sounds. It'd create an enormous tourist industry and if it was taxed, huge tax receipts. Now, I doubt very much the morals of the Irish public could be bent to allow this to happen, but in theory it's actually quite a good idea.

Innovation - I like it!

seamus

Liam79 wrote: »

Company A call Company B and say "if we both price our product at 49.99 we can corner the market and avoid tax".....

Sorted......

Meanwhile Dunnes and Penneys sell comparable products for 10.99 and market forces dictate they'll do better. And if Gap and Tommy decide to corner the "clothes for idiots' children" market and put Calvin Klein out of business while simultaneously making their products more affordable for said idiots, I don't see the problem?

Or am I missing your point?

Atwork

Rb wrote: »

Do those saying that a €0.50 increase onto the price of cigarettes will turn enough people to the black market or quitting to result in a net loss in the tax revenue from said product have any empirical evidence to support it?

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Rb

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Again, any empirical evidence on the matter? Or just heresay and whatifs?

cson

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Create more jobs for Customs & Excise officers though.

Win -Win

Kered75

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Smokes are about 2 euro cheaper per pack in the north at the moment

frman

Rb wrote: »

Again, any empirical evidence on the matter? Or just heresay and whatifs?

Of course I don't have any evidence in relation to something that hasn't happened. It is just my opinion.


Do you have any evidence that putting 50c on a packet of smokes won't drive people to the black market ? Thought not, just your opinion too eh ?

MMD

MaceFace wrote: »

Very naive responses and I bet most people who want the excise reduced would also be in favour of legalising canabis.

absolutely not

Eliot Rosewater

Atwork wrote: »

Do you remember a ship searched by customs stuffed full of fags a couple of months ago. Huge market out there for cheaper smokes, an increase in price fo smokes will only make the black market smokes bigger.

Note that if you can get a Ryanair flight for €10 each way to Frankfurt, and get the bus in which is €20 return, you only need to buy 3 bottles of Jagermeister and already it is cheaper walking to your local off-licence in Ireland (€25 Ireland; €10 Germany). This gap is so huge people are motivated to do it. Additionally, why are drinks, petrol and fags cornered off? Probably because it makes people less angry than income tax?

I do hope this budget gets passed. The alternative is a FG/Labour Coalition and thats going to get nowhere towards Public Sector reform.

MaceFace wrote: »

Very naive responses and I bet most people who want the excise reduced would also be in favour of legalising canabis.

I suppose if you cant actually criticize the idea itself, make up something completely fallacious about the people putting it forward and then give out about that. Arguing against your imagination will definitely win you the debate.

Dubya89

Nervous they're going to cut my dole by 50% .

Liam79

cson wrote: »

Collusion = Illegal.

Sorted......

Illegal....ya....and....???!!!!

jobucks

cson wrote: »

Aside from the border counties and people lucky enough to be able to holiday, the vast majority will still buy their cigarettes in the Republic. I'd imagine any increase of less than €1 would have a negligible effect on tax receipts.

Not necessarily true, I haven't bought cigarettes in Ireland for well over a year now, not black market but duty free. Because of the recession a number of people I know and am related too have secured work outside the Country and bring them back whenever they come home. Mainly based in the middle east where the cost of a pk of 20 is circa €1. There must be quite a lot of people who have left the country for work in the past 12 months who are doing similar.

meganj

I hope they do up the price of smokes but only because it's the only thing that'll make me quit.. though I said that last year... But realistically the Gov has to thread a thin line between upping the price and not making cigarettes impossible to buy. After all we smokers pour a lot into the economy and as people have already stated they will push people into the black market. God knows if I knew where to get them I'd be buying them!!!!

I just hope I'm not sobbing when it's all over..

And sure they might as well legalise weed while they're at it..

Liam79

seamus wrote: »

Meanwhile Dunnes and Penneys sell comparable products for 10.99 and market forces dictate they'll do better. And if Gap and Tommy decide to corner the "clothes for idiots' children" market and put Calvin Klein out of business while simultaneously making their products more affordable for said idiots, I don't see the problem?

Or am I missing your point?

It will be just like now Seamus....the people who cant afford the 49.99 will buy the Dunnes product, the mommys who just "have to get it" for little Tommy will buy the 49.99 products...just as they always have......

All i am saying is, a 50E ceiling before tax, wont change a thing. Nada. Taxing kids shoes wont work....

Just ask Fine Gael

Rb

frman wrote: »

Of course I don't have any evidence in relation to something that hasn't happened. It is just my opinion.


Do you have any evidence that putting 50c on a packet of smokes won't drive people to the black market ? Thought not, just your opinion too eh ?

By that I assume you mean drive enough people to the black market to cause a net loss in takings in that tax year? I believe history is on my side on this one, is it not? If it were driving enough people to other sources, they wouldn't have consistently increased it over the last few years. They're not that stupid.

So, if heresay and whatifs is what you're founding your argument on, I'm going to go ahead and say you needn't bother any further.

ofjames

is he on his feet yet? stuck in the office here so cant get a live feed

Rb

Liam79 wrote: »

Illegal....ya....and....???!!!!

I'm going to refer you to this thread : http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055679567