Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

Met ireland are not letting much out, they are even saying that it will turn milder on saturday!

Seems a reasonable forecast to me, a nudge of less cool air forces itself eastwards over Ireland on Saturday ahead of the main cold front:




May only be a brief affair though...;)

owenc

Deep Easterly wrote: »

GFS must be assuming snowfields for temperatures like this:



I am almost in the coldest spot!! . I would have thought the flow was still a little bit too slack in that run to drag down showers this far south as there is little sign of any major troughing yet. Still, we'll see...

:eek: going by that chart my maxes will be -6c and lows -10c thats never going to happen mmaybe -3c maxes and -7c mins more like it though it is possible because last week we had to day were the temp was -1c max...... the fight is on from thrusday with maxes probaably of 1c on thrusday and a few snow showers going by the gfs

maquiladora

UKMO 12Z isn't fantastic...

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

UKMO 12Z isn't fantastic...

Back to reality after yet another GFS ride...:pac:

Elmo5

wunderground.com still thinks we are still in with a chance...

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=dublin,%20ireland&wuSelect=WEATHER

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Back to reality after yet another GFS ride...:pac:

Classic rollercoaster stuff.

D.E. did you know that the 12Z GFS was the first operational run of the new version of the GFS? Haven't seen the ensembles yet...

All eyes to the 12Z ECM now. :pac:

owenc

maquiladora wrote: »

Classic rollercoaster stuff.

D.E. did you know that the 12Z GFS was the first operational run of the new version of the GFS? Haven't seen the ensembles yet...

All eyes to the 12Z ECM now. :pac:

ugh typical!!!!!!! anyway weather underground have monday night low down to -8c for here and 1c maxes from friday but i think thrusday.....

maquiladora

owenc wrote: »

ugh typical!!!!!!!

No it's not as bad as its sounds, it has been running in parallel for the past few weeks and has been fairly consistent with handling this cold spell.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Classic rollercoaster stuff.

D.E. did you know that the 12Z GFS was the first operational run of the new version of the GFS? Haven't seen the ensembles yet...

Didn't know that Maq, but will be interesting to see if the medium range will improve in quality. I actually thought the 12z GFS was quite conservative to be honest, certainly not showing anything that I would become very excited about post 96hrs.

cinnamon

Snowfest 1980s style
No show snow
Widespread snow

I can't keep up with ye!

I am going to take this thread with a pinch of salt, because the highs and lows are too much for my temperament!
But my money's on the postman!

smashey

cinnamon wrote: »

Snowfest 1980s style
No show snow
Widespread snow

I can't keep up with ye!

I am going to take this thread with a pinch of salt, because the highs and lows are too much for my temperament!
But my money's on the postman!

Keep some of that salt for the pavement.

Rougies

cinnamon wrote: »

I am going to take this thread with a pinch of salt, because the highs and lows are too much for my temperament!
But my money's on the postman!

We need them for snow, and we need them in the right places

jambofc

i dont no
after loseing heart the last couple of days and then rekindling the hope today,it look's poor enough to me.
it looks very marginal for low level snow,not even to much precip about to make any snow,temp seem to be leveling off to,mainland europe is not anyway near as cold as predicted surely if it's comeing from there "soon" it would have to be way colder there allready,hope is in polar trough????
pleaz someone tell me im way off here and dont have a clue what im talking about

Duiske

Pangea wrote: »

But dont get too excited ,although people calling snow for friday night seems reliable since it is only 3 nights away.

I'm probably going to regret this,but I'd lay odd's that Supercell will be on here sometime Thursday evening reporting snow up his way. I'll even narrow it down a bit. Sometime between 8.30 and 10.30.

Yea, I know. Still a bit early to say where any precip will fall, but its looking good for that area.

snaps

snow being reported on UK travel radio updates in the south of england (Hampshire, surrey and also now whiltshire)

Deep Easterly

Duiske wrote: »

I'm probably going to regret this,but I'd lay odd's that Supercell will be on here sometime Thursday evening reporting snow up his way. I'll even narrow it down a bit. Sometime between 8.30 and 10.30.

Yea, I know. Still a bit early to say where any precip will fall, but its looking good for that area.

SC lives on top of a mountain. His snow dosen't count! Snow below 50m asl is what matters...

at least to me!!

MUSEIST

snaps wrote: »

snow being reported on UK travel radio updates in the south of england (Hampshire, surrey and also now whiltshire)

I d'ont know about you guys but there is nothing worse than those across the pond getiing snow when we dont, makes me so jealous

owenc

xc wetaher showing snow from saturday for here and all day sunday with a 0c max and 3c max from thrusday!!!!

snaps

If you look at the met office uk reports/charts, the divide is the midlands of the UK. South/south east of UK in east airflow, north of the midlands west airflow. some parts of surrey now -2c. Snow also being reported in east yorkshire/humberside. So its on its way if we get into the east air flow!

arctictree

Deep Easterly wrote: »

SC lives on top of a mountain. His snow dosen't count! Snow below 50m asl is what matters...

at least to me!!

Don't forget me! I'll be reporting it too!!!

A

Deep Easterly

ECM rolling out in a couple of minutes. Will the rollercoaster take an upwards turn again??

Supercell

Duiske wrote: »

I'm probably going to regret this,but I'd lay odd's that Supercell will be on here sometime Thursday evening reporting snow up his way. I'll even narrow it down a bit. Sometime between 8.30 and 10.30.

Yea, I know. Still a bit early to say where any precip will fall, but its looking good for that area.

Its been raining/drizzling steadily here for at least 24 hours now, temp has been falling since around 23:00 last night slowly but surely. I reckon some white stuff here is possible tomorrow night and settling stuff by Thursday night.
Arctictree will have the same too, this could be pretty special here, especially later in the weekend.
I'll keep ye posted :P

Scubadevils

Supercell wrote: »

Its been raining/drizzling steadily here for at least 24 hours now, temp has been falling since around 23:00 last night slowly but surely. I reckon some white stuff here is possible tomorrow night and settling stuff by Thursday night.
Arctictree will have the same too, this could be pretty special here, especially later in the weekend.
I'll keep ye posted :P

If it turns out that way I'll be taking a trip up that direction again over the weekend, it was unreal up that way earlier in the year... except for when I decided to take the road towards the Sally Gap and the car wasn't too keen on the idea :pac:

Supercell

Felixdhc wrote: »

If it turns out that way I'll be taking a trip up that direction again over the weekend, it was unreal up that way earlier in the year... except for when I decided to take the road towards the Sally Gap and the car wasn't too keen on the idea :pac:

Yep, I'd take scenes like these here again again no problem!

Deep Easterly

ECM at 144hrs:



Very similar to the UKMO 144hrs chart. That charts says showers on the W & N coasts, but mostly dry and bright, if chilly, for most.

Supercell

Who said UKMO was bad?



Nothing wrong with that!

maquiladora

Interesting ECM in FI, I cant tell if that would be rain or snow 168-192?

Supercell

ECM keeps the cold theme running, maybe the postman was onto something!

Supercell

maquiladora wrote: »

Interesting ECM in FI, I cant tell if that would be rain or snow 168-192?

If (big if) there was widespread snow cover I'd go for snow even at low levels except western coastal areas.

snaps

Both ITV and BBC weather reports saying no real threat of heavy snow in the UK, but it will turn colder, with the south and midlands being the coldest. West and north being the mildest.