Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

arctictree

LOL GFS 18z t+150 -6c, Mucho Precip!!

Rougies

Wow. I like this fancy new and more accurate GFS

But I'm going to try to put that run out of my mind for the good of my mental health.

francosp

Tickets please... :D

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

But I'm going to try to put that run out of my mind for the good of my mental health.

Yeah I wouldnt be surprised if these charts will end up being more entertaining than the actual weather on these days! :pac:

I expect this run will be an outlier.

Deep Easterly

Elmo5 wrote: »

I do believe that Evelyn smiled too when she mentioned Christmas? anyone else notice?

Classic Evelyn forecast!. She is just dying to blurt out a big ramp! :D:D

Love the big cheesy smile she gave while showing the polar plunge:



One of us! One of us!

Here is the forecast in full for those that missed it, or just want to watch it again...;)

Enjoy!

Duiske

maquiladora wrote: »

I expect this run will be an outlier.

Quite likely.
Runs are going crazy today, throwing up everything we can think of. I think FI has moved in to about 96hrs at the moment.

MUSEIST

Yep, evelyn is definitely one of us.
Who knows, she may even be lurking on this forum :eek:

maquiladora

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Classic Evelyn forecast!. She is just dying to blurt out a big ramp! :D:D

"Bringing air direct from the North Pole"

:pac: Love it.

Danno

That image just screams Polar Low potential.

pistolpetes11

maquiladora wrote: »

"Bringing air direct from the North Pole"

:pac: Love it.

She looks like she is going to burst with Joy coming near the end of that report !!!

maquiladora

New FAX : http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax96s.gif

forkassed

Reality check

Deep Easterly

forkassed wrote: »

Reality check

Ensembles for Tyrone looking similar as well:

sdanseo

Sometimes I wish I'd never started lurking here, it's up and down like a yoyo! Aaargh!

Gut feelings for the next 5 days, anyone?

Rougies

Rougies wrote: »

Wow. I like this fancy new and more accurate GFS

But I'm going to try to put that run out of my mind for the good of my mental health.

After watching Evelyn pratically jumping around the studio pretending to throw snowballs at the camera, I bought a ticket for a new kind of rollercoaster. A rollercoaster so epic people have been known to explode just thinking about riding it. They say it hasn't been invented yet, but that's just a cover up. I've seen it. It was away in the distance, but I could definitely make it out enough to know that it's there.

maquiladora

forkassed wrote: »

Reality check

Can we call it a trendsetter instead of an outlier? :P

Thats not much of a surprise there really...but apart from FI, there is more ensemble agreement on this run for those -10 uppers on the there now than on the previous.

Trogdor

maquiladora wrote: »

Can we call it a trendsetter instead of an outlier? :P

Hehe i'd call it irrelevant given its well in FI anyway:pac:

EDIT: don't know where the dublin grid point comes from on netweather but the op run doesn't dip back below -10C in FI..think this ensemble set is closer:

Redsunset

Oh it all looks very promising now,she was only dying to blurt out possibly snow christmas day.

Im really enjoying this ride now.

sat night could see alot of wintryness

all 93 of us 93 (39 members & 54 guests)

TheHairyFairy

Wouldnt it be fun to take discussions into a chat room during the run in to this event. Maybe use IRC? If peeps are interested I can create a channel and a guide on how to connect etc.

Rougies

TheHairyFairy wrote: »

Wouldnt it be fun to take discussions into a chat room during the run in to this event. Maybe use IRC? If peeps are interested I can create a channel and a guide on how to connect etc.

+1

Maybe mods could provide a sticky with the details... and make it simple, not many will download an IRC client so point them to one of the in browser Java IRC applets.

jenzz

yep I dont mind at all - ill sit in the garden in my bikini & count snow flakes if it guarantees a white christmas lol

TheHairyFairy

#snow.ie on Quakenet!

Should be fun!

Rougies

jenzz wrote: »

yep I dont mind at all - ill sit in the garden in my bikini & count snow flakes if it guarantees a white christmas lol

This is exactly the kind of enthusiasm and motivation we need to make this happen

maquiladora

I hope yer not gettin too excited lads. There is still every chance that the mild, wet weather could be back early next week and snow potential could be downgraded a lot. Im just sayin dont get your hopes up too high...

Martron

maquiladora wrote: »

I hope yer not gettin too excited lads. There is still every chance that the mild, wet weather could be back early next week and snow potential could be downgraded a lot. Im just sayin dont get your hopes up too high...

it is this negative thinking that got this country into its non weather event state!!!!

dfx-

darkman2 wrote: »

It's looking good if you like snow.


18z GFS is a very cold run for Ireland with plenty of snow opportunities over the weekend - and Thursday and Friday too. Firstly the risk is in the East. This then transfers North on Saturday - Saturday night will see the risk countrywide as a cold front moves South. With cold air ahead and behind this system it is highly likely to see snow in most places overnight. The South coast may struggle a little though. Sunday looks like widespread snow showers and freezing conditions as the LP to the North comes very close or even over Ireland. Mild air will try to come in from the Southwest at times but this actually improves the snow chances even further because we need it to create the trough lines we need for more widespread snow.

Post reported for use of term 'risk' instead of 'hope'

danni2

How will inland areas do with this coming cold spell? looks like it's just going to be bone dry here with coastal areas of the east and north getting snow.

darkman2

danni2 wrote: »

How will inland areas do with this coming cold spell? looks like it's just going to be bone dry here with coastal areas of the east and north getting snow.

Most places should get snow really. Not all the time but at times. Suface Sea Temperatures are still relatively warm so still some convective potential for big showers. In any case more organised bands of precipitation will cross the country from time to time.

Redsunset

yep was looking at that precip chart earlier,sure hope it comes off.

meanwhile another accuweather vid on the approaching cold,not a great one for detail,just more on lack of salt in england for the cold spell.
watch it antway.

http://www.accuweather.com/video-on-demand.asp?video=57345229001&title=Salt Supplies Sparse&ctr=2

Danno

I would like to throw my hat in the ring and call it more or less nailed on. All the numbers do stack up. All the boxes are ticked. Why I am pretty sure is because...

1. We have seen in the past (Oct 2008) that this did happen under conditions less favourable than now...
2. NW Russia temperatures are in the -40c's, which is what we are drawing off of...
3. SSTs are rather warm in the Irish sea which will fuel the showers...
4. Wind directions are excellent - an easterly, turning northerly, then easterly once more...
5. Even at the 60km GFS is forecasting very convincing cold for here. Most of the lat/long calculations are offshore for Ireland. i.e. People might look at the min/max temps for Dublin and see 4c, but the actual sweetspot for the calculation is some miles off Greystones out in the sea.

Bring it all on!!! * :P



* - hopes not to have to eat the same hat come this day week!!!