Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

Redsunset

Ah good man ha,i began being very bullish in this thread about snow in the near future because nearly everyone was writing it off at one stage.

The trend is looking very good so ive my hat in my hand too:pac:
i don't mind even a light covering.

Redsunset

As you can see i've been holding on to my ticket for a while now.

pistolpetes11

Dam iPhone won't let me post up my ticket , but I have it and have had it for a good while now !

Danno

Classic 00z run.

Redsunset

Danno wrote: »

Classic 00z run.

yep Danno i can't complain.

worth waiting for.:)

WorriedSick

redsunset wrote: »

yep Danno i can't complain.

worth waiting for.:)

Anyone want to give a quick summary of whats looking likely over the next few days based on the latest outputs?

Hal1

Stock up on your canned food and snow plough :pac:. Higher than 80% chance of snow below 200mtrs in eastern areas at first.

force eleven

Well, if you go to our national weather forecasters, met.ie this morning - you will not find a single mention of snow in it up until next week at least. So I'm not sure what is going on,but they must know something we don't from all the info we have seen over the past few days.....

Deep Easterly

Both the UKMO & ECMWF 00z run continue to show a similar, if odd, set up at 144hrs:





Slack, flabby low being under ridden by a returning Polar Maritime flow. Hard to say what such a set up would bring but my guess is for strong, convective showers in coastal areas and drier the further inland you go. Going to be interesting to see what such an odd set up would actual bring should it pan out anything like the above charts.

patneve

Just to give you guys an idea of how cold mainland Europe is!

owenc

apparerntly its going to snow constant all day friday through to monday according to xc weather is that possible if so well be snowed out..... btw temps are alot colder than expected -7c in south east england typical!!!!!! anyway maybe this cold spell is colder than expected maybe well be getting 0c maxes tomorrow instead of 2c!

rc28

Looks like Gerry Murphy had his shift this morning - from website:

"The weather won't change that much for Friday either; generally dry and cold with low daytime temperatures and the frost not clearing at all from shaded ground. Friday will again be a bright day with good spells of mid-December sunshine throughout the country. However scattered showers will still affect places along the east and north coasts, carried in by the onshore breezes. Over the weekend, the winds go more to a north or northwesterly direction and this will allow cloudier weather with outbreaks of rain to develop across Ulster, north Connacht and parts of north Leinster too. But the rest of the country will be dry for the weekend and the showers will disappear from the east coast. On Monday that rain in the north gradually dies out and the day is dry but still cold. The circulation in the atmosphere shows no sign of returning to its normal Atlantic pattern early next week. So that means it should stay fairly dry up until mid-week with the winds eventually going easterly in direction."

Not even a mention of sleet anymore!
Will wait and see what 7:55 radio forecast says

rc28

Ok WTF, has there been a downgrade? The Eagle delivered the radio forecast and only spoke of rain and showers for the weekend. For tomorrow he said the showers would be rain but "maybe with a bit of winter in a few". This is just like his Sunday farming forecast :mad:

DOCARCH

rc28 wrote: »

Ok WTF, has there been a downgrade? The Eagle delivered the radio forecast and only spoke of rain and showers for the weekend. For tomorrow he said the showers would be rain but "maybe with a bit of winter in a few". This is just like his Sunday farming forecast :mad:

Heard that! He's giving us nothing!

owenc

there is no downgrade looking at nw etc and even the meto has heavy snow for here on sunday and saturday so..... no downgrade but met ie are just playing risky i would check later.....

munsterlegend

i hope met eireann have got it way wrong but the eagle seemed fairly confident in the radio forecast this morning. said it would be cold but northerly flow is mostly dry without any precipitation and also that tomorrow would be the coldest day. not one mention of the word snow anywhere even into next week.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

i hope met eireann have got it way wrong but the eagle seemed fairly confident in the radio forecast this morning. said it would be cold but northerly flow is mostly dry without any precipitation and also that tomorrow would be the coldest day. not one mention of the word snow anywhere even into next week.

Stop! You're hurting my ears!!

munsterlegend

leahyl wrote: »

Stop! You're hurting my ears!!

stop reading my post so loud! wonder what the experts think? are met eireann being cautious or is there information they have we don't have access to?

ninebeanrows

DOCARCH wrote: »

Heard that! He's giving us nothing!

Greeting from hospital!

Just had to come on express my deep concern at met eireanns forecast, it is no wonder that there is often criticism towards them when they issue such a irresponsible and deliberately irresponsible forecast. No sane forecast can fail to mention snow in the coming outlook, the hills look sure to recurve huge falls of snow over the coming days, granted it mite not be overly wet the synoptic is ideal for widespread heavy snowfallnot even to mention snow over high ground but to specifically and repeatable mention rain is nothing short of embarassing.

leahyl

munsterlegend wrote: »

stop reading my post so loud! wonder what the experts think? are met eireann being cautious or is there information they have we don't have access to?

Well i don't know about you but after watching the forecast last night on RTE i was very excited and normally that doesn't happen when it comes to there being a chance of snow - but there was something about the way Evelyn delivered that forecast that made me think "maybe just maybe...."!!! She had a little smirk on her face! Bearing in mind of course that i know nothing about weather!

force eleven

Weathercheck wrote: »

Greeting from hospital!

Just had to come on express my deep concern at met eireanns forecast, it is no wonder that there is often criticism towards them when they issue such a irresponsible and deliberately irresponsible forecast. No sane forecast can fail to mention snow in the coming outlook, the hills look sure to recurve huge falls of snow over the coming days, granted it mite not be overly wet the synoptic is ideal for widespread heavy snowfallnot even to mention snow over high ground but to specifically and repeatable mention rain is nothing short of embarassing.

Well, I for one will copy and paste that forecast,print it out, and look at it on Sunday and see where we stand then. I can't understand how they have downplayed the possibility of a really cold snap like this, and yet, they are the professionals - let's see how right or wrong they have called it in about 3 or 4 days from now....

munsterlegend

force eleven wrote: »

Well, I for one will copy and paste that forecast,print it out, and look at it on Sunday and see where we stand then. I can't understand how they have downplayed the possibility of a really cold snap like this, and yet, they are the professionals - let's see how right or wrong they have called it in about 3 or 4 days from now....

yes i suppose that is the best way to approach it! no point in giving out about them too much until we can say with certainty they made a mistake. but going by their radio forecast at just before 8 am and their website little or no risk of any snow.

Deep Easterly

John Eagleton's forecast this morning reflects what the ECM model has been showing over the last couple of runs. With very little significant troughing in the northerly flow, it would take a lot to drive those wintry showers very much inland, although the west and north seaboards could still see some very heavy showers with snow a plenty on the hills.

Latest ECM still showing this scenario for Sunday into Monday, although the flow does seem marginally stronger than what earlier runs showed:



I suspect, given that the flow is slightly stronger than previously shown, that those showers might filter a bit more inland over Connacht, Munster and Ulster/N Leinster than the above chart might suggest.


However, still early days yet and plenty of time and scope for upgrades later as it is way to early to be overly specific at this stage.

Deep Easterly

force eleven wrote: »

Well, I for one will copy and paste that forecast,print it out, and look at it on Sunday and see where we stand then. I can't understand how they have downplayed the possibility of a really cold snap like this, and yet, they are the professionals - let's see how right or wrong they have called it in about 3 or 4 days from now....

I don't think they are playing down the cold spell at all. Maybe the snow part of it alright, but the forecasts are still very chilly. ECM actually has temps struggling to reach much above freezing during the working week next week in most inland locations.

Black Swan

Current temperature at 01:00:
Clear13°C
Feels like: 13°C

Current conditions:
Barometer: 1021 mb
Dewpoint: 8°
Humidity: 71%
Visibility: 16 km
Precip in last hr: None
Precip last 24 hrs: 0.02 cm
Wind: 0 km/hr
Sunrise: 6:49 AM
Sunset: 4:45 PM
UV Index: 0 Low
Observed at Santa Ana, John Wayne Airport-Orange County Airport.

Today's Forecast:
Today Hi: 20°
Lo: 11°
Mostly Sunny :cool:

force eleven

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I don't think they are playing down the cold spell at all. Maybe the snow part of it alright, but the forecasts are still very chilly. ECM actually has temps struggling to reach much above freezing during the working week next week in most inland locations.

Agreed. I will, however, still pin my hopes on the Donegal postman....;)

leahyl

force eleven wrote: »

Agreed. I will, however, still pin my hopes on the Donegal postman....;)

I hear ya! I go with the person that says what i want to hear:D

Deep Easterly

force eleven wrote: »

Agreed. I will, however, still pin my hopes on the Donegal postman....;)

Let's hope that the Donegal postman's forecast *ahem* 'delivers' then...:p

maquiladora

Well the GFS 0Z is still showing snow showers for the east/southeast Thursday night/Friday.

As D.E. said, Met Eireann's forecast is based on what the ECM is saying, not the GFS.

leahyl

There's no way of looking as far ahead to Christmas Eve is there? It's prob too early to say but how does it look at the moment? I would just love it to start falling around 4.30 just as it gets dark!! sigh.....