Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

maquiladora

Interesting ensembles from the 0Z GFS...the op is dead on with the mean showing -5 850s until the 26th, and its extended cold spell past Christmas has more ensemble support than the 18Z had.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Well the GFS 0Z is still showing snow showers for the east/southeast Thursday night/Friday.

As D.E. said, Met Eireann's forecast is based on what the ECM is saying, not the GFS.

sorry this may be a silly question but why do met eireann favour ecm over gfs?

Deep Easterly

leahyl wrote: »

There's no way of looking as far ahead to Christmas Eve is there? It's prob too early to say but how does it look at the moment? I would just love it to start falling around 4.30 just as it gets dark!! sigh.....

No way of knowing at all Leahyl. Way too far out for even the models to be certain at this stage. Should have some sort of idea though towards the end of the weekend, but at this stage anything could happen.

leahyl

Deep Easterly wrote: »

No way of knowing at all Leahyl. Way too far out for even the models to be certain at this stage. Should have some sort of idea though towards the end of the weekend, but at this stage anything could happen.

Thanks Deep Easterly! I have no idea about charts and models or anything to do with weather forecasts - just love following this thread! So exciting! Keep it up! Hope we have more to talk about in the next few days now!

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

sorry this may be a silly question but why do met eireann favour ecm over gfs?

I guess its because we are one of the members of the ECMWF whereas the GFS is the American model.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

I guess its because we are one of the members of the ECMWF whereas the GFS is the American model.

ok thanks. so if we were a gfs member met eireann would be forecasting snow?!:pac: met eireann must put much more reliance on the ecm model.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

ok thanks. so if we were a gfs member met eireann would be forecasting snow?!:pac: met eireann must put much more reliance on the ecm model.

I think they use the HIRLAM model for short range and ECM for beyond short range. I'm sure they still look at other models like the GFS, UKMO etc. though. Perhaps our resident Met Eireann lurker can give us some more info? :pac:

Su Campu

Well here's how I see it based on the 00Z GFS, ECM and UKMO...

The best chance of any organised snowfall is Sunday into Monday, as the models are in some agreement that the conditions will be somewhat favourable for polar lows - ie. a pool of sub -40°C H500 temps to the west of the low centre, some h500 troughing, and 10°C sea surface temperatures to the north of Ireland. Surface - H700 directional shear is favourable too, so I think the models are saying that's our window. After that the flow becomes too stagnant over us, leading to just some showers of rain, with snow on higher ground.

In the meantime, I would reckon conditions are favourable for some lake-effect snow showers in eastern/northeastern coastal areas Friday, swinging around to northern areas Saturday. If we can get some commas to develop then these could organise and make it further inland, but these are very difficult to forecast more than 24hrs out.

Rodar08

I just heard it's snowing in London I love the weather board in the winter btw but I can't offer any input as i dont know what i'm talking about!

Su Campu

maquiladora wrote: »

I think they use the HIRLAM model for short range and ECM for beyond short range. I'm sure they still look at other models like the GFS, UKMO etc. though. Perhaps our resident Met Eireann lurker can give us some more info? :pac:

Evelyn Cusack told me a few years ago that they use the ECM, UKMO and HIRLAM, and not the GFS. That could have changed by now though. It is widely accepted throughout the world that on average, the ECM gets it right more times than any of the others, but it too, like all models, has certain biases and shortfalls. In my experience I've found it more reliable for mid-long term forecasting, and the GFS, while spot on sometimes, can go crazy, especially with cold outbreaks.

leahyl

Rodar08 wrote: »

I just heard it's snowing in London I love the weather board in the winter btw but I can't offer any input as i dont know what i'm talking about!

DITTO! LOL! But yay it's snowing in London - now if only that would drift westwards.....

maquiladora

06Z GFS rolling out, no huge differences out to 48 hours but the cold air doesnt seem to extend quite as far west on this run so a slight downgrade for snow showers on the east thursday night/friday morning.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

06Z GFS rolling out, no huge differences out to 48 hours but the cold air doesnt seem to extend quite as far west on this run so a slight downgrade for snow showers on the east thursday night/friday morning.

any good signs for sunday/monday?! the uk seems to be doing well out of this - well the east anyway.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

any good signs for sunday/monday?! the uk seems to be doing well out of this - well the east anyway.

Saturday night looks good for the north, hard to know how far south the snow would get but no major change from the previous run. Sunday/Monday looks same as the previous run too, doesn't seem to be too much precip around but would be cold enough anyway. :pac:

leahyl

maquiladora wrote: »

Saturday night looks good for the north, hard to know how far south the snow would get but no major change from the previous run. Sunday/Monday looks same as the previous run too, doesn't seem to be too much precip around but would be cold enough anyway. :pac:

I think it's time to do a bit of praying to the man above!! Please let it come to Cork, please, please......

Deep Easterly

Friday morning looking a bit chilly:



Easterly setting in. :cool:

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

Saturday night looks good for the north, hard to know how far south the snow would get but no major change from the previous run. Sunday/Monday looks same as the previous run too, doesn't seem to be too much precip around but would be cold enough anyway. :pac:

the confidence of yesterday for a major event doesn't seem to be materialising. still things can change so all is not lost! like you said as long as its cold there is hope..

Deep Easterly

Snowfest! :rolleyes:

leahyl

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Snowfest! :rolleyes:

What does this mean??!! Ok i'll go along with what you say! SNOW WOOO

Oh wait a minute - was that sarcasm....?!

doccy

I love this thread. Yesterday was all doom and gloom, then about four it exploded again with optimism and now we're slowly going back down again. Give it a few hours and we'll be as high as kids overdosing on sugar again lol.

leahyl

doccy wrote: »

I love this thread. Yesterday was all doom and gloom, then about four it exploded again with optimism and now we're slowly going back down again. Give it a few hours and we'll be as high as kids overdosing on sugar again lol.

I know! It's the most exciting thread on boards! And i don't have a CLUE what these people are talking about! I'm just the annoying one that asks questions....:D

Danno

Good morning. I have just read the Met E forecast there...

Tonight
Often clear tonight and cold and frosty. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2C.

Tomorrow
Another cold and dry day except for more showery weather in places near the east coast.

This is a forecast that covers a 30 hour period! They are unable to call it at the moment, plain and simple.

doccy

leahyl wrote: »

I know! It's the most exciting thread on boards! And i don't have a CLUE what these people are talking about! I'm just the annoying one that asks questions....:D

Between me and you, screw science and listen to the Donegal postman. My cat is scratching the side of the seat and that means only one thing...snow of EPIC proportions :eek:

Kippure

leahyl wrote: »

I know! It's the most exciting thread on boards! And i don't have a CLUE what these people are talking about! I'm just the annoying one that asks questions....:D

That is what is known as a polar low pressure heading south over the north of the country. Has given us huge snow fall in the best of our past winters.

At the moment i dont think it is best to look that far ahead as models chop and change. After 72 hours it really is up in the air as to what will and will not happen.

This mornings run gfs06z run has "the potental Breakdown" further out again as a low pressure into portugal has come into play keeping us in the cold air.

roryc1

6z not looking bad, but then the 6z yesterday where terrible for ireland, so its a upgrade on yesterdays 6z
can't wait to see the 12z they should be epic :o:o

leahyl

doccy wrote: »

Between me and you, screw science and listen to the Donegal postman. My cat is scratching the side of the seat and that means only one thing...snow of EPIC proportions :eek:

LOL!

eskimocat

doccy wrote: »

It's gas how interesting this thread has turned out to be. Now I'm determined to have snow. So if science fails me, I'll just blindly follow a Donegal postman

Just catching up with the thread, left it yesterday around lunch time with my hopes for snow melting faster than a snowflake on sunburn, but have read what happened just after and feel that same old tingle..... nearly afraid to read on... :eek:

Gonna bet on the postman myself, I think. My Granddad ( another Donegal man) was great at weather too from just looking around him... fingerscrossed.

Gonzo

rte now just forecasting mostly dry conditions over next week with any precipitation in the form of rain, they have totally dropped any mention of wintry conditions and are hinting at a return of the atlantic around early next week. This is looking more like a UK exclusive event only.

munsterlegend

Gonzo wrote: »

rte now just forecasting mostly dry conditions over next week with any precipitation in the form of rain, they have totally dropped any mention of wintry conditions and are hinting at a return of the atlantic around early next week. This is looking more like a UK exclusive event only.

was this on tv/radio? or the internet?

Dotsie~tmp

Have paddpower stopped taking bets? Did someone in ME lamp on i wonder