Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

maquiladora

Gonzo wrote: »

...hinting at a return of the atlantic around early next week...

Seems to be the complete opposite of what their current outlook says :

The circulation in the atmosphere shows no sign of returning to its normal Atlantic pattern early next week.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

Redsunset

Based on latest GFS signals

Snow Risk for the next 5 days in Ireland

Today Tomorrow Fri 18/12 Sat 19/12 Sun 20/12
15%
60%
60%
50%
80%

There will be wintryness especially in the northern of the country from this sort of airflow,don't care what Met Eireann are saying.This is ECM,they are seeing the same chart.

roryc1

Uk met office now have advance warning for heavy snow on Sunday in Northern Ireland, so lets see what a are boys make of that

ch750536

Nice bit of snow falling here now.

Unfortunately I'm in Henley, UK.

roryc1

ch750536 wrote: »

Nice bit of snow falling here now.

Unfortunately I'm in Henley, UK.

ban

leahyl

roryc1 wrote: »

Uk met office now have advance warning for heavy snow on Sunday in Northern Ireland, so lets see what a are boys make of that

NO NO NO! Not the North we want snow in the SOUTH, THE SOUTH PEOPLE!!:D

maquiladora

UKMO warning for Northern Ireland for Sunday :

Heavy snow showers may give accumulations of 2-5cm and there is a risk of 5-10cm over hills.

I think Met Eireann will need to update their outlook which mentions "outbreaks of rain to develop across Ulster" for the same time.

Elmo5

They don't cover the south I'm afraid

BUT, "There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of north and western Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England and northern Wales on Sunday. Heavy snow showers may give accumulations of 2-5cm and there is a risk of 5-10cm over hills".

leahyl

Elmo5 wrote: »

They don't cover the south I'm afraid

BUT, "There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of north and western Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England and northern Wales on Sunday. Heavy snow showers may give accumulations of 2-5cm and there is a risk of 5-10cm over hills".

That's it i'm moving!:D

I'm also in london now and it's dull and snowing...lightly but with lovely flakes

leahyl

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm also in london now and it's dull and snowing...lightly but with lovely flakes

You lucky sod!!:D

maquiladora

leahyl wrote: »

NO NO NO! Not the North we want snow in the SOUTH, THE SOUTH PEOPLE!!:D

The south doesn't do well from a northerly airflow as the showers tend to die out before they extend that far. The south's best chance was from the easterly but that has been downgraded since we first got excited about it a while ago. There are still a lot of unknowns about this northerly though and there's always the chance of something coming down and passing right over the country but don't expect too much...:pac:

Redsunset

leahyl wrote: »

That's it i'm moving!:D

I think you may:o

im not seeing too much activity away from the north from the arctic blast

back to watching and waiting im afraid

leahyl

redsunset wrote: »

I think you may:o

im not seeing too much activity away from the north from the arctic blast

back to watching and waiting im afraid

Like i know Cork is the best city in the world but there ARE disadvantages to living here ! Mainly we never get any SNOW!

I saw a bbc world forecast yesterday showing max day time temps in moscow of -18c.Thats the air source what could have got here by Xmas and potentially dipping air temp maxima here below zero..
It's a pity the easterly is going to be replaced by a more benign albeit locally snowy northerly or northwesterly...speaking from an imby perspective

Pangea

Elmo5 wrote: »

"There is a moderate risk of severe weather affecting parts of north and western Scotland, Northern Ireland, northwest England and northern Wales on Sunday. Heavy snow showers may give accumulations of 2-5cm and there is a risk of 5-10cm over hills".

where is that quote from?

Redsunset

Pangea wrote: »

where is that quote from?

uk met office.

They also have high risk heavy snow warning for friday in south east england:(


There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of east and southeastern England during Friday. Heavy snow showers will give accumulations of 5-10cm on low ground and 15-20cm over hills. Some drifting snow is likely in the strong north to northeasterly wind. This could cause disruption to travel networks. Outdoor events may also be affected by the snow.

munsterlegend

redsunset wrote: »

uk met office.

They also have high risk heavy snow warning for friday in south east england:(


There is a high risk of severe weather affecting parts of east and southeastern England during Friday. Heavy snow showers will give accumulations of 5-10cm on low ground and 15-20cm over hills. Some drifting snow is likely in the strong north to northeasterly wind. This could cause disruption to travel networks. Outdoor events may also be affected by the snow.

maybe that snow up north will spread down south to us. do met eireann only cover the republic in their forecasts? i still have a feeling/hope however forlorn that something will develop given how cold it is going to be!

MUSEIST

Keep the faith people, its going to be very cold from friday onwards and the end of any cold spell is difficult to pinpoint at this stage but their should be a few days at least and hopefully some will get snow;)

force eleven

munsterlegend wrote: »

maybe that snow up north will spread down south to us. do met eireann only cover the republic in their forecasts? i still have a feeling/hope however forlorn that something will develop given how cold it is going to be!

Met Eireann cover the Island, but I wouldn't expect them to follow suit yet, especially after this mornings lack of acknowledgement of potential snow. They may do so a little closer to the event - say, by Friday, if they deem it necessary.

darkman2

The snow should begin from the North on Saturday Evening. Saturday Night will see snow showers in the Northern half of the country (Initially a band of rain will turn to snow as it spreads South Saturday Evening) from maybe a line North of Wicklow. Isolated showers elsewhere but with the subzero temperatures any flakes are likely to settle. Sunday sees more snow showers, widespread across the country in the afternoon, again low temperatures means settling snow.


From then on we are kind of in cold limbo. Very cold ground temperatures. Some places, at sea level, won't get above freezing by daytime. Snow on the ground won't help temperatures rise either. Showers on Monday and Tuesday may retreat somewhat back to coastal fringes but it's very uncertain atm.

By midweek next week temperatures might be becoming marginal but still very cold and snow should still occur. Alot of uncertainty about the pattern beyond Tuesday (Indeed beyond Monday!) but it's likely to remain cold or very cold and unsettled with further sleet or snow. No sign of mild weather for the forseeable future.

Don't be getting so uptight about what individual forcasts say on the television or radio. We have all the charts and information we need here right in front of us.

munsterlegend

the mornings/afternooons are usually doom and gloom here and the evenings always give us room for hope!

we just need a few unforeseen developments and we'll be back in business again.

munsterlegend

darkman2 wrote: »

The snow should begin from the North on Saturday Evening. Saturday Night will see snow showers in the Northern half of the country (Initially a band of rain will turn to snow as it spreads South Saturday Evening) from maybe a line North of Wicklow. Isolated showers elsewhere but with the subzero temperatures any flakes are likely to settle. Sunday sees more snow showers, widespread across the country in the afternoon, again low temperatures means settling snow.


From then on we are kind of in cold limbo. Very cold ground temperatures. Some places, at sea level, won't get above freezing by daytime. Snow on the ground won't help temperatures rise either. Showers on Monday and Tuesday may retreat somewhat back to coastal fringes but it's very uncertain atm.

By midweek next week temperatures might be becoming marginal but still very cold and snow should still occur. Alot of uncertainty about the pattern beyond Tuesday (Indeed beyond Monday!) but it's likely to remain cold or very cold and unsettled with further sleet or snow. No sign of mild weather for the forseeable future.

Don't be getting so uptight about what individual forcasts say on the television or radio. We have all the charts and information we need here right in front of us.

at last a bit of optimism! if met eireann are saying the same again tomorrow its cause for concern!

Su Campu

As I said yesterday, it's a pity we're not 300 miles futher to the east. That's why the UK MEt are issuing high risks....they're going to be in an airmass several degrees cooler than we. Look at 500-1000 thickness countours - they're pretty much increasing the further west you go, therefore the chances of snow vs rain diminish too. I'd say that's why Met Éireann are playing it cagey....no point in going mad when they're not sure, there'll be plenty of time in the next day or two to change if they need to.

darkman2

munsterlegend wrote: »

at last a bit of optimism! if met eireann are saying the same again tomorrow its cause for concern!

It's not optimism it is what the charts show. Obviously the heaviest snow will be in the North but not exclusively.


For example, this is experimental, but quite a bit of snow cover across a good chunk of the country by the end of the weekend especially over higher ground.

force eleven

darkman2 wrote: »

The snow should begin from the North on Saturday Evening. Saturday Night will see snow showers in the Northern half of the country (Initially a band of rain will turn to snow as it spreads South Saturday Evening) from maybe a line North of Wicklow. Isolated showers elsewhere but with the subzero temperatures any flakes are likely to settle. Sunday sees more snow showers, widespread across the country in the afternoon, again low temperatures means settling snow.


From then on we are kind of in cold limbo. Very cold ground temperatures. Some places, at sea level, won't get above freezing by daytime. Snow on the ground won't help temperatures rise either. Showers on Monday and Tuesday may retreat somewhat back to coastal fringes but it's very uncertain atm.

By midweek next week temperatures might be becoming marginal but still very cold and snow should still occur. Alot of uncertainty about the pattern beyond Tuesday (Indeed beyond Monday!) but it's likely to remain cold or very cold and unsettled with further sleet or snow. No sign of mild weather for the forseeable future.

Don't be getting so uptight about what individual forcasts say on the television or radio. We have all the charts and information we need here right in front of us.

A very sensible post. It's still only Wednesday, and with the current set up, uncertainty almost reaches 72-96 hours ahead, unlike times when we have our usual zonal set up from the west, when you can see unrelenting areas of low pressure and fronts like we did in late October until earlier this month.

Su Campu

Just to get a picture of Saturday, here are Belfast Harbour and Dublin Airport forecast soundings for 00Z Saturday. Belfast shows a better chance of snow, Dublin looks more like sleet at best with that shallow layer of above zero temp and dewpoints. But with cold advection from the north it will be interesting to see how these soundings change in the coming runs.

forkassed

Met Eireann Visual goes for Snow, they just wont say it in their forecast

Calina

They usually recommend you pay more heed to text where the visual and text diverge though I think.

maquiladora

New update (12:17) from Met Eireann for tomorrow :



"Tomorrow

Cold and bright tomorrow, with many areas staying largely if not completely dry. However some showers will continue to affect northeast, east and southeast fringes, some of which will be wintry, mainly over higher ground."


But the weekend outlook is still only for rain :
"outbreaks of rain to develop across Ulster, north Connacht and parts of north Leinster"

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/