Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

Deep Easterly · 13-12-2009 7:57am

Still looking chilly on this morning's models. Slightly different outlook between the UKMO and ECM at 144hrs this morning, but differing only synoptically, as both are still looking darn cold.

UKMO keeps a stiff, cold easterly going:

While the ECM turns it more to the north in the same timeframe:

UKMO would mean better chance of snow for the east, while the risk moves to the north ala ECM. Personally, I hope the UKMO is right, I know other's would prefer snow for the west, and I understand that completely, but a dry easterly is what is needed for at least a few days just to mop up the horrendous floodings around the place. I still can't walk out into my back garden without sinking up to my knees in sodden ****e

:D:D

When the place is dried up, then I will welcome the snow with open arms, legs or whatever it takes...;):p

holly1 · 13-12-2009 8:08am

How many days before can you predict for definite what the weather conditions will be Deep Easterly.

Deep Easterly · 13-12-2009 8:15am

holly1 wrote: »

How many days before can you predict for definite what the weather conditions will be Deep Easterly.

Hi fellow Smurph!

Hard to say really but to predict actual weather conditions is actually a lot harder than predicting general trends, such as the current one. For example, it does looking like it will become cooler during the coming week, although not especially cold as the real deal is not forecast to hit til thursday or friday.

However, to predict actual weather conditions, that becomes really difficult, even 6 to 3 hours in advance. Models only really show general trends, it is the specifics closer to the time that becomes the real challenge. Predicting snow, and where that snow will fall (or any other major weather), becomes a forecaster's nightmare and often things go wrong.

Best thing to do Holly is watch this space, plenty of brains on here who will keep us all up to date, live on air, as things unfold, if they unfold at all....:o

holly1 · 13-12-2009 8:22am

Thanks for that brother Smurf:D.I followed the snow alert here last year and it was great fun.We are having a party next saturday night and I wanted to know what to expect weather wise:)

Deep Easterly · 13-12-2009 8:27am

holly1 wrote: »

Thanks for that brother Smurf:D.I followed the snow alert here last year and it was great fun.We are having a party next saturday night and I wanted to know what to expect weather wise:)

At this stage sister Smurph, the only thing that is almost certain for saturday is that it will be cold. Whether or not it will snow it is really hard to say, particularly as there is model disagreement in the alignment of favourable synoptics. Just stay tuned in and no doubt you will get a better idea what to expect come thursday or friday.

Either way, enjoy your party!

Min · 13-12-2009 9:20am

7:55 radio 1 - threat of sleet and snow next weekend.

jambofc · 13-12-2009 10:20am

ok im a weather enthusiast but by no means an expert or anywhere near,can i ask all you "experts"

this.....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

in this picture(sorry i dont no how to get the picture to come up here(if someone could tell me,thanks)are those tempatures not very marginal for snow??
or am i reading it all wrong

ParkRunner · 13-12-2009 10:33am

For what its worth, the odds of a white Xmas in Dublin on PaddyPower have shortened from 4/1 to 7/2.

Pangea · 13-12-2009 11:06am

Just got the hardest nights frost of the winter here in Donegal ,i doubt it will defrost too much today. lovely weather , what a delight that it will be cold like this in the next week or 2 coming up to christmas, if it snows its a big bonus.

This is from met eireanns website, they mentioned the word snow already!
From Wednesday through to Friday it will turn even colder, with a risk of scattered wintry showers of sleet or even snow, mainly in northern and eastern coastal areas and especially over high ground.

owenc · 13-12-2009 11:33am

Pangea wrote: »

Just got the hardest nights frost of the winter here in Donegal ,i doubt it will defrost too much today. lovely weather , what a delight that it will be cold like this in the next week or 2 coming up to christmas, if it snows its a big bonus.

This is from met eireanns website, they mentioned the word snow already!
From Wednesday through to Friday it will turn even colder, with a risk of scattered wintry showers of sleet or even snow, mainly in northern and eastern coastal areas and especially over high ground.

yes i doubt this frost will melt it is -3.4c here now and the only melted frost is on the roof facing the sun and i expect the temp to be around 0c max today what about you whats the current temp in donegal???

Redsunset · 13-12-2009 12:47pm

JonnyM wrote: »

no chance at snow lads you are just clutching at straws here :rolleyes:

just what the hell planet are you living on.

not letting you away with a comment like that.

it IS going to snow and your a fool to doubt it.

where do you live?

mike65 · 13-12-2009 12:52pm

Well I'm not looking forwards to this, too old for snow to poor for the cold.

paulhac · 13-12-2009 1:11pm

redsunset wrote: »

just what the hell planet are you living on.

not letting you away with a comment like that.

it IS going to snow and your a fool to doubt it.

where do you live?

I wouldnt even bother Redsunset, he'll see the errors of his ways soon enough.

arctictree · 13-12-2009 1:36pm

jambofc wrote: »

ok im a weather enthusiast but by no means an expert or anywhere near,can i ask all you "experts" this.....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsavneur.html

in this picture(sorry i dont no how to get the picture to come up here(if someone could tell me,thanks)are those tempatures not very marginal for snow??
or am i reading it all wrong

The GFS temp charts are not really that accurate for temperature forecasts. For a start, the temp shown near Dublin is actually at a location a few miles off the wicklow coast, so take a couple of degrees off that for a start. Also, the temps are maxes and generally would be a couple of degrees colder anyway. Also, these temps dont model cold inversion well at all.

A

Bog Butter · 13-12-2009 1:40pm

Thanks for the regular upadates guys. It is great fun!

I have a question regarding last Thursday's and Friday's weather if you don't mind. I work outdoors (in Tyrone) and I noticed that on Thursday we had Cirrus clouds and on Friday we had Stratus clouds (I had to google that to find out). Both days were dry. However there was a noticable difference though. Thursday was very calm with long bright sunny spells. I could work away and I didn't need to wear a coat. A guy flew over our site on a motorized hand glider. He obviously was taking advantage of the weather conditions. On Friday though it was overcast with a slight breeze, it was chilly and I deffinatley had to leave the coat on. I was wondering what was happening with the weather? Did those 2 days mark a transition in the weather and is it linked to the oncoming cold snap? Thanking you in advance.

jenzz · 13-12-2009 2:14pm

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/forecast.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&postalcode=EUR;IE;EI006;DUBLIN;&metric=1

have the charts changed ? snow appears to be gone missing from accu

Trogdor · 13-12-2009 2:19pm

redsunset wrote: »

IS going to snow and your a fool to doubt it.

Just as foolish to make a comment like that;) nothing is set in stone at all yet

Sleipnir · 13-12-2009 2:25pm

mike65 wrote: »

Well I'm not looking forwards to this, too old for snow to poor for the cold.

Throw a few snowballs and you'll feel much younger.

Pangea · 13-12-2009 2:26pm

White Christmas ahead, says postman

(UKPA) – 1 hour ago

A postman renowned for predicting the weather using ancient methods has insisted Ireland is heading for a white Christmas.

Michael Gallagher, who learned his age-old technique from the last generations living high in Donegal's Blue Stack mountains, uses nature and the behaviour of animals to make his forecast.

The 61-year-old, who lives in the remote Glenfin Valley, said all the signs pointed to snow on its way. "We are definitely on our way to a white Christmas," he said.

jenzz · 13-12-2009 2:30pm

Pangea wrote: »

White Christmas ahead, says postman

(UKPA) – 1 hour ago

A postman renowned for predicting the weather using ancient methods has insisted Ireland is heading for a white Christmas.

Michael Gallagher, who learned his age-old technique from the last generations living high in Donegal's Blue Stack mountains, uses nature and the behaviour of animals to make his forecast.

The 61-year-old, who lives in the remote Glenfin Valley, said all the signs pointed to snow on its way. "We are definitely on our way to a white Christmas," he said.

Im laughing at this but...... daddy never follows the weather forecast.. He was a farmer for the last like 100 years & he can tell you every day what the weather will be bringing..... & hes pretty damn accurate. Dont know how but he does !
Im not going to ask his oinion on a white christmas cos I know he will just burst my bubble .................................:(

Pangea · 13-12-2009 2:34pm

jenzz wrote: »

Im laughing at this but...... daddy never follows the weather forecast.. He was a farmer for the last like 100 years & he can tell you every day what the weather will be bringing..... & hes pretty damn accurate. Dont know how but he does !
Im not going to ask his oinion on a white christmas cos I know he will just burst my bubble .................................:(

yeah its a funny headline

, but not laughed at up here , this man has nearly always been accuarte when it comes to snow predictions!

jenzz · 13-12-2009 2:37pm

Pangea wrote: »

yeah its a funny headline , but not laughed at up here , this man has nearly always been accuarte when it comes to snow predictions!

you up North Pangea ? I just want to see a bit - I dont remember a white christmas TBH so would be nice in my little lifetime to say oh yeah remember the christmas of 2009 !

Pangea · 13-12-2009 2:39pm

jenzz wrote: »

you up North Pangea ? I just want to see a bit - I dont remember a white christmas TBH so would be nice in my little lifetime to say oh yeah remember the christmas of 2009 !

yes im from up north surely!
I recall a few white christmases to be honest , Move up to Donegal

.

jenzz · 13-12-2009 2:50pm

Pangea wrote: »

yes im from up north surely!
I recall a few white christmases to be honest , Move up to Donegal .

lol - but we get the heat when the sun finally comes out lol . We had snow last sunday lol - Promo shoot in the back garden & it was covered in snow for the day lol Kids were very confused...

JanuarySnowstor · 13-12-2009 3:01pm

The eagle mainly concentrated on how dry next week was going to be and that it would be a huge improvement on last week.
I wonder if roads close from snow and ice by Friday will ordinary folk share his view.
Imo there is enough of a risk of disruption for him to at least mention the "s" word:rolleyes:

holly1 · 13-12-2009 3:08pm

What are they afraid of,maby they think there will be a mad rush to the shops and nothing will be left on the shelves for Christmas

homersimpson · 13-12-2009 3:48pm

Pangea wrote: »

yeah its a funny headline , but not laughed at up here , this man has nearly always been accuarte when it comes to snow predictions!

I know the guy and he's normally spot on

:D

His new book is a good read

maquiladora · 13-12-2009 4:55pm

Interesting forecast from the Eagle today...he didn't mention snow or even sleet once, instead talking about a cryptic "unpleasentness" for the far north east coast on Thursday with "a bit of winter" in it.

owenc · 13-12-2009 4:59pm

who the heck is the eagle!!!!!! flip you could say no offence...

maquiladora · 13-12-2009 5:07pm

owenc wrote: »

who the heck is the eagle!!!!!! flip you could say no offence...

http://www.rte.ie/weather/presenters/eagletonj.html :pac:

12Z GFS is rolling out, out as far as Friday now and not really showing much snow potential there so far, keeps things cold though.

Big Change Monday Onward, much colder, ice and snow later

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